Russia v Ukraine

[SasaS]

5 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

I know, I guess I should have been clearer. Don’t get confused about what I was saying previously. I was just talking their ability to shift a MEU around. I was clarifying what I said.

Yes, if they can shift a whole Middle East University around, it shouldn't be that challenging to deliver four heavy and modern MRLS systems within a month.

 

I was more impressed with training troops and delivering 108 howitzers in less than 2 months, even with the computers taken off, and 132,000 shells.

 

 

[cochyn]

4 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

We've sent Gavin Williamson out to watch over Shitholynka on the weekends armed with an air rifle, so you don't need to worry about that falling any time soon.

That's Sir Gavin Williamson as well. We ain't arsing around on this one.

[SasaS]

Bump.

 

Tom C's 3-day extravaganza.

 

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-17-18-19-june-2022-d8a71e864b08

[SasaS]

What really shocked me, one of the Russian military bloggers mentioned the recently exchanged / released UKR medic (the one smuggling a video from Mariupol filmed by her headset camera  or something), as being accused in Russia of killing some married couple in Mariupol in order to take their children. I remember that they at first denied they had her, than paraded her in front of camera as an Azov member. You can only imagine what other monstrous accusations they will come up with against the Mariupol POWs.

 

 

 

Translated blogger by the guy who does translations of Russian interceptions and posts (often very interesting, recommended):

 

 

[Section_31]

33 minutes ago, SasaS said:

You can only imagine what other monstrous accusations they will come up with against the Mariupol POWs.

 

"When our brave soldiers liberated the people's republic of dumbass, they discovered evidence of breakfast plates that seemed to have bean juice congealed to the sides."

 

[SasaS]

13 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

 

"When our brave soldiers liberated the people's republic of dumbass, they discovered evidence of breakfast plates that seemed to have bean juice congealed to the sides."

 

 

Speaking of bean juice, what happened to the bio labs?

 

[ManéMan]

3 hours ago, SasaS said:

 

Speaking of bean juice, what happened to the bio labs?

 

You mean the ones Nuland hoped wouldn't get in to Russian hands?

[Gnasher]

 

 

 

[Gnasher]

Not sure Ben Stiller strolling around Kiev with Zelenskyy will go down quite the way they think with the worlds poorest people who are facing starvation due to economic sanctions.

[Rico1304]

1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

Not sure Ben Stiller strolling around Kiev with Zelenskyy will go down quite the way they think with the worlds poorest people who are facing starvation due to economic sanctions.

I’m pretty sure if I was starving whatever Ben Stiller was doing wouldn’t impact on me at. However if I was an American film fan one of the most famous actors in the world taking interest might make me sit up and notice.  Idiot. 
 

Edit: He’s also a unicef goodwill ambassador. 

[Gnasher]

30 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

I’m pretty sure if I was starving whatever Ben Stiller was doing wouldn’t impact on me at. However if I was an American film fan one of the most famous actors in the world taking interest might make me sit up and notice.  Idiot. 

Of course all the American film fans in places like Chicago/Texas/New York and beyond are affluent enough not to be impacted by sky high fuel prices. You're right, they'll probably sit up and notice alright, only not necessarily in the way you might think. 

 

 

 

 

 

[SasaS]

It's tough in the east of Ukraine right now. And when the going gets tough, you know who gets... an unplanned update out.

 

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-20-21-june-2022-de53db94691e

 

 

[M_B]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61878929

 

Lithuania blocking access to Kaliningrad looks like an escalation to me.

[SasaS]

Žižek in The Guardian:

 

Those who advocate less support for Ukraine and more pressure on it to negotiate, inclusive of accepting painful territorial renunciations, like to repeat that Ukraine simply cannot win the war against Russia. True, but I see exactly in this the greatness of Ukrainian resistance: they risked the impossible, defying pragmatic calculations, and the least we owe them is full support, and to do this, we need a stronger Nato – but not as a prolongation of the US politics.

The US strategy to counteract through Europe is far from self-evident: not just Ukraine, Europe itself is becoming the place of the proxy war between US and Russia, which may well end up by a compromise between the two at Europe’s expense. There are only two ways for Europe to step out of this place: to play the game of neutrality – a short-cut to catastrophe – or to become an autonomous agent. (Just think how the situation may change if Trump wins the next US elections.)

While some leftists claim that the ongoing war is in the interest of the Nato industrial-military complex, which uses the need for new arms to avoid crisis and gain new profits, their true message to Ukraine is: OK, you are victims of a brutal aggression, but do not rely on our arms because in this way you play in the hands of the industrial-military complex …

TLDR: Glory to Ukraine!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/21/pacificsm-is-the-wrong-response-to-the-war-in-ukraine?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0GA2AexiZJJIwRlpM0Mjx9YtA8qQBblCOfE8eSPsSL35oKdS1mzo-uT6U#Echobox=1655811353

 

[SasaS]

More importantly, Ukrainian Generalstab has just announced the arrival of promised German self-propelled howitzers.

 

Fortunately they decided to announce a day before the awkward anniversary. 

 

[Red Phoenix]

I still don't know how they've managed to defend this area so well and for so long but it looks like they might have to get out of there shortly or be cut off :

 

 

[SasaS]

4 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

I still don't know how they've managed to defend this area so well and for so long but it looks like they might have to get out of there shortly or be cut off :

 

 

 

Apparently, some of it is favourable terrain, some if it good fortifications, some of it sheer stubborn bravery. Yes, unless they can counterattack at Toshivka, Zolote and Hirske become pointless. As far as I recall, someone said that apparently the terrain beyond Bilohorivka in the north and current Russian position in the south line becomes open all the way to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Bakhmout line. They are possibly trying to avoid that.

[Red Phoenix]

7 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Apparently, some of it is favourable terrain, some if it good fortifications, some of it sheer stubborn bravery. Yes, unless they can counterattack at Toshivka, Zolote and Hirske become pointless. As far as I recall, someone said that apparently the terrain beyond Bilohorivka in the north and current Russian position in the south line becomes open all the way to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Bakhmout line. They are possibly trying to avoid that.

 

I'd read about some of the advantages they have in that area but yeah they've still defended beyond what many would have expected considering the amount of stuff that Russia will have thrown at them (same for those defending the highway from Bakhmut too). I'd not be surpised to see Russians move towards Slavyansk and Kramatorsk faster soon too if this area goes like you said.

[SasaS]

Russia seems to be throwing everything they have at UKR forces to break them in the east at the moment. It's apparently fairly dramatic.

 

BBC News reports about Kaliningrad transit ban and Ben Stiller in Kiev. .

 

[Ne Moe Imya]

I find the hysteria about Severodonetsk to be puzzling.

 

It's a bad thing, sure, but in the broader picture I'm not sure it really matters that much. Except as propaganda for both sides, I guess? 

 

I mean, Russia is going to make a huge deal out of taking all of Luhansk province, they are going to claim that the Ukrainians are at the point of collapse, etc. Ukraine is going to use it as a story for the West, how they need more weapons, etc (which at least is true).

 

But in the big picture of the war it just means that the line moves a few kilometers to the West. It's not some strategic key point that then points to the inability of the Ukrainians to hold more territory. The Russians are getting chewed up, the Ukrainians are getting chewed up, and it all seems to be in service to both countries' hype machine more than the actual battle.

 

The Russians have already lost the war, for all intents and purposes. They lost when they had to retreat from Kyiv and it became clear Ukraine was going to continue to exist. The only question now is how much of Ukrainian territory are they going to have to reconquer once they've been fully armed by the West (or, in a darker timeline, where the line is going to be drawn once the West gets bored and stops supporting them). But either way, one or two cities more or less isn't really that crucial, except of course for the poor Ukrainians who will suffer under the occupation in those cities.

[M_B]

11 hours ago, SasaS said:

Russia seems to be throwing everything they have at UKR forces to break them in the east at the moment. It's apparently fairly dramatic.

 

BBC News reports about Kaliningrad transit ban and Ben Stiller in Kiev. .

 

The Kaliningrad issue is not to be underestimated I think. It has the potential to expand the war. The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if it is being done deliberately to goad the Russians into a war with NATO, or if Lithuania and the EU is really being that naive.

 

Putin could use this to test NATO. Will people support a war against Russia over this? I very much doubt it.

[Numero Veinticinco]

13 minutes ago, M_B said:

to goad the Russians into a war with NATO, or if Lithuania and the EU is really being that naive

Naive? I'm not sure if it's naive not to let the Russians to transports God knows what through NATO territory, letting them potentially put even more dangerous weapons there. 

[M_B]

Nothing to do with weapons. It has the potential to be a danzig corridor casus belli.

 

I assume the EU are using it as leverage to free up Ukrainian wheat exports or gas, but it's a dangerous game. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

33 minutes ago, M_B said:

 It has the potential to be a danzig corridor casus belli.

 

No it doesn’t. Russia is a member of the UN. There is no Jus ad bellum here. Restriction of passing through their country or using their infrastructure is not a casus belli. 

[SasaS]

I am hereby officially underestimating Kaliningrad, as nothing would come out of it, except more Russian we are victims of the West-Nato-EU-Nazis propaganda.

In Ukraine, Zolote pocket is lost, situation is dramatic and Tom Cooper had to revert to hitting the RF positions with daily salvos of long-range sarcasm again.  Just when he thought he was out...

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-21-22-june-2022-8785e95af08b