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Russia v Ukraine


Bjornebye
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Two months ago, the Russians had Kyiv surrounded.

 

Now the only way they can take ground is to reduce it to just that.

 

To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles, they call empire, and where they make a desert, they call it peace.

 

Tacitus

 

Putin is a complete fucking idiot. 

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Interesting if this is accurate :

 

 

From the Guardian on the same poll :

 

Quote

More than 80% in Poland, Sweden, the UK (83%) and Finland (90%) said they held Russia responsible, along with strong majorities in Italy (56%), France (62%) and Germany (66%), while majorities or pluralities also saw Russia as the main block to peace.

There was strong support for cutting links with Russia. A majority across the 10 countries felt governments should sever economic and cultural relations with Moscow, with most – rising to 71% in Poland – also favouring an end to diplomatic ties.

Similarly, 58% across the 10 countries – rising to 77% in Finland – wanted the EU to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, even at the expense of the bloc’s climate goals, suggesting public support for a new round of EU sanctions, including on oil.

But ECFR’s polling showed a clear divide between Europeans who want peace as soon as possible (35% across the 10 countries), and those who want justice – defined as restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and holding Russia to account (22%).

A third “swing” group, who share the anti-Russian feelings of justice supporters but also the peace camp’s fears of escalation, accounted for about 20% of voters, the report found – with major distribution differences between countries.

 

‘Justice’ for Ukraine overshadowed by cost of living concerns, polling shows

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Mensch is a lunatic. Telling the Pope to repent and embrace the gospel is the funniest thing I’ve seen in a while. I assume she’s talking about The Gospel of Louise. 
 

And there is surely a great action film in NATO v The Pope. Chris Hemsworth with some ageing makeup to play The Pope.

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It seems Ukrainians think that inflating their casualty figures may speed up the delivery of heavy weapons. They went from zero information to now almost daily claims of 100 killed 200 killed, up to 1,000 killed a day. They have estimated 70,000 people in all of Donbas where most of the fighting is and I think even this may be an overestimation. I seem to recall they were complaining of being outnumbered there 3:1.

 

First we had tens of thousands of Russians being killed, then a month ago they stopped dying and now we have some figure of 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed or lost, mentioned by that video blog one page back as coming from Russian intel sources, or some American retired general as "missing" in the total number of 700,000. 

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I see Putin has now started to refer to himself as equal to Tzar Peter the great and that his destiny is to get more of the former Sovietunion back under Russian rule. Similar talk is now happening across Russian media outlets. Peter the great didn’t stop when people told him that st. Petersburg was Swedish, he went and conquered it. This is also our destiny to do. Putin has said. He is not stopping at Ukraine. Unless he gets stopped. 

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Maybe Sweden and Denmark had it too good for too long?

 

He is now apparently talking about the new world order. What does he still had to do for people to realize what is the world dealing with. Give the Ukrainians the weapons they are ready to do it for you, because they have no choice anyway anymore. But no. We must not escalate. It will all stop when Ukraine is devoured.

 

What is Johnson up to? Have crisis at home will travel?

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Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia is next targets would be my guess. Bornholm and Gotland from Sweden and Denmark will also be targeted at some point, if he isn’t stopped. He also seems to have a hard-on for Narva in Estonia, which he has already mentioned as one city that Peter the Great already conquered and that they should follow. Finland also seem to be high on the list. 

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1 hour ago, DJLJ said:

I see Putin has now started to refer to himself as equal to Tzar Peter the great and that his destiny is to get more of the former Sovietunion back under Russian rule. Similar talk is now happening across Russian media outlets. Peter the great didn’t stop when people told him that st. Petersburg was Swedish, he went and conquered it. This is also our destiny to do. Putin has said. He is not stopping at Ukraine. Unless he gets stopped. 

Sicko of NATO forcing him to do this TBH. 

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21 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia is next targets would be my guess. Bornholm and Gotland from Sweden and Denmark will also be targeted at some point, if he isn’t stopped. He also seems to have a hard-on for Narva in Estonia, which he has already mentioned as one city that Peter the Great already conquered and that they should follow. Finland also seem to be high on the list. 

Well, then he really, really does have an issue. Because those being NATO countries we will be forced into their absolute destruction in conventional war. Outside of that, it’s species ending. So, he might think twice. 

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Looking at big European Nato members, I don't think they would be ready to fight Russia if it moves against the Baltic states. It may be stern warnings, dismay and condemnation. I don't know about the US. But I am not sure French or British soldiers would be ready to die for Estonia. Russia may decide to test their resolve believing Nato will fall apart. 

 

Also, it may be that there is far less conventional weapons people believe there is. This may also be one of the reason for slow assistance to Ukraine.

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Doesn't make any sense for the Russians to open another front. They're having a hard enough time on one as it is. It's either bluff to make Sweden and Finland think twice or Putin really is dying and he's going full retard.

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26 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Well, then he really, really does have an issue. Because those being NATO countries we will be forced into their absolute destruction in conventional war. Outside of that, it’s species ending. So, he might think twice. 

Seems weird to say this, but I think people are giving Putin too much credit when they say things like this.

Putin is aging, there are rumours that he's seriously ill, and he believes his own propaganda. I can almost promise you, if you gave Putin a die to roll and told him there was a 10% chance the world ended in a nuclear fireball and humanity went extinct, but a 90% chance he could restore the Russian empire to its peak and leave a legacy as a great leader of Russia, he'd take that chance in a second. Wouldn't even think twice.

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If Russia decided to invade the Baltic States the first question would be with what? Their armed forces are currently being smashed by one of the poorest country in Europe.

The second question would be how long the invasion would last... hours or days

Nato would very definitely fight

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24 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Looking at big European Nato members, I don't think they would be ready to fight Russia if it moves against the Baltic states. It may be stern warnings, dismay and condemnation. I don't know about the US. But I am not sure French or British soldiers would be ready to die for Estonia. Russia may decide to test their resolve believing Nato will fall apart. 

 

Also, it may be that there is far less conventional weapons people believe there is. This may also be one of the reason for slow assistance to Ukraine.

You're forgetting there's an absolute shit-ton of NATO hardware and personnel in the entire eastern border with Ukraine following the slew of recent exercises in the region (Poland and Lithuania maybe)? Most of that gear is the shiny new stuff we've kept for ourselves. Not the bin-ends we've been giving Ukraine.  

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5 minutes ago, mattyq said:

If Russia decided to invade the Baltic States the first question would be with what? Their armed forces are currently being smashed by one of the poorest country in Europe.

The second question would be how long the invasion would last... hours or days

Nato would very definitely fight

Russia may try to do it gradually. After Ukraine, they can rebuild the army, and use gradual destabilization in Estonia for example. Use Russians that live there, politicians that are in their pocket, provoke a confrontation. Same people that think Ukraine should give Russia what it wants would think, Estonia, that used to be Russia anyway, do we really need to get involved?

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15 minutes ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

Seems weird to say this, but I think people are giving Putin too much credit when they say things like this.

Putin is aging, there are rumours that he's seriously ill, and he believes his own propaganda. I can almost promise you, if you gave Putin a die to roll and told him there was a 10% chance the world ended in a nuclear fireball and humanity went extinct, but a 90% chance he could restore the Russian empire to its peak and leave a legacy as a great leader of Russia, he'd take that chance in a second. Wouldn't even think twice.

Totally agree, but those wouldn’t be the odds. There’s nothing he can do to get that empire back. So that’s off the table. It’s about the level of destroyed he would like to get.  

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But what if it turns out Russian army is not the only one which is not quite up to what we thought they would be? What if Nato also turns out to be a bit of a Potemkin village? When it needs to actually fight a big, modern conventional army and the governments suddenly need to explain to its people why are now hundreds of body bags coming home from Estonia? Or the shiny new stuff keeps jamming or breaking down or soldiers used to war games and fighting poorly equipped local militias suddenly discover it is much more difficult to zero in on the target when the target can zero in on you?

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3 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Russia may try to do it gradually. After Ukraine, they can rebuild the army, and use gradual destabilization in Estonia for example. Use Russians that live there, politicians that are in their pocket, provoke a confrontation. Same people that think Ukraine should give Russia what it wants would think, Estonia, that used to be Russia anyway, do we really need to get involved?

Pre Ukraine would have been a possibility

Now the Rubricon has been crossed it's not going to be happening

Same with China and Taiwan

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