Russia v Ukraine

[Rico1304]

So arming the Ukrainians and imposing sanctions has worked?  Incredible when you thin…

 

Agent Knobbly Rock has been wrong in just about everything.  

[Numero Veinticinco]

4 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Now it's you who's being silly.

Yes, it’s almost as if I was mimicking inane drivel  to make a point rather than being literal. 

[Gnasher]

Just now, Numero Veinticinco said:

Yes, it’s almost as if I was mimicking inane drivel  to make a point rather than being literal. 

God, more inane drivel.

[Numero Veinticinco]

Just now, Gnasher said:

God, more inane drivel.

You don’t actually understand, do you agent knobbly rock? 

[Gnasher]

2 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

You don’t actually understand, do you agent knobbly rock? 

Oh dear, your self proclaimed big brain now has to resort to mimicking the Tory twat. 

[Rico1304]

4 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Oh dear, your self proclaimed big brain now has to resort to mimicking the Tory twat. 

Lib Dem twat thank you very much.  

[Gnasher]

Just now, Rico1304 said:

Lib Dem twat thank you very much.  

Apologies.

[SasaS]

27 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Russia are fucked. She predicts 4 more weeks and then a possible deal along the lines of what I mentioned further up the thread, 

 

 

 

"Those 130 BTGs represented 190k people, and ~65% of the RU army's total combat strength. There's signs that the 99 in Ukraine now are all they can scrape together. They've press-ganged nearly every male 16-65 in DNR and LNR into service already."

 

Why do western analysts keep parroting this nonsense? DNR and LNR have an estimated population of 3 to 3.5 million people. That would mean they have "press-banged" over half a million people into military service.

 

 

[Gnasher]

2 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

"Those 130 BTGs represented 190k people, and ~65% of the RU army's total combat strength. There's signs that the 99 in Ukraine now are all they can scrape together. They've press-ganged nearly every male 16-65 in DNR and LNR into service already."

 

Why do western analysts keep parroting this nonsense? DNR and LNR have an estimated population of 3 to 3.5 million people. That would mean they have "press-banged" over half a million people into military service.

 

 

I don't know, do you agree with the rest of the articles predictions?

[TheHowieLama]

Can we get it straight?

 

Press-ganged seems different then press-banged. Unless this is a ganged-banged.

[Numero Veinticinco]

32 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Oh dear, your self proclaimed big brain now has to resort to mimicking the Tory twat. 

Link to self-proclamation please. 

[SasaS]

3 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I don't know, do you agree with the rest of the articles predictions?

What predictions? She has simply rehashed what other western analysts keep saying, without knowing too many actual facts (Russian losses for example, state of the troops' morale) and put a turning point at roughly the same timeline as I did, hers is mid-June, mine was late June, a couple of pages back, providing things go well for Ukraine.

 

"Her gut tells her" Russia would then offer a ceasefire and the truce would be hammered out along the lines of withdrawing to the 23 February lines. This sounds plausible if Russians were rational, which they are not and if they didn't prepare their public for something much much more from this war (also, most of the Russian public still firmly believes they are about to win any day now). 

 

The problem is, her gut has no clue what would happen with the current Sieverodonetsk salient offensive, what is the actual state of the UKR army, what the real rates of attrition are nor how useful western supplies are proving on the ground. 

 

TLDR: what will happen in negotiations will be decided by what happens on the ground.

[Gnasher]

10 minutes ago, SasaS said:

What predictions? She has simply rehashed what other western analysts keep saying, without knowing too many actual facts (Russian losses for example, state of the troops' morale) and put a turning point at roughly the same timeline as I did, hers is mid-June, mine was late June, a couple of pages back, providing things go well for Ukraine.

 

"Her gut tells her" Russia would then offer a ceasefire and the truce would be hammered out along the lines of withdrawing to the 23 February lines. This sounds plausible if Russians were rational, which they are not and if they didn't prepare their public for something much much more from this war (also, most of the Russian public still firmly believes they are about to win any day now). 

 

The problem is, her gut has no clue what would happen with the current Sieverodonetsk salient offensive, what is the actual state of the UKR army, what the real rates of attrition are nor how useful western supplies are proving on the ground. 

 

TLDR: what will happen in negotiations will be decided by what happens on the ground.

Cheers. I was talking about her hunch on the possibility of a Russian withdrawal in a month or so and the possibility of a ceasefire and peace settlement along the before 23 Feb lines, which is similar to my guess the other day. I'm hoping she's right.

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Not sure if it’s been posted on here but ITV News have just shown edited footage of Russian troops (who are due to stand trial for war crimes) shooting a 62 year old Ukrainian civilian who passed by them on his bicycle. 
 

He managed to get to safety and called for help but bled to death before Ukrainian troops could reach him. 
 

Absolutely horrific. The evil fuckers. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

40 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Link to self-proclamation please. 

@Gnasher

[Gnasher]

12 minutes ago, Nelly-Matip said:

Not sure if it’s been posted on here but ITV News have just shown edited footage of Russian troops (who are due to stand trial for war crimes) shooting a 62 year old Ukrainian civilian who passed by them on his bicycle. 
 

He managed to get to safety and called for help but bled to death before Ukrainian troops could reach him. 
 

Absolutely horrific. The evil fuckers. 

Yeah another brutal one in a Ukrainian shop, basically a Russian execution of two innocent men. I think Stronts posted a link to it further up.

[SasaS]

16 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Cheers. I was talking about her hunch on the possibility of a Russian withdrawal in a month or so and the possibility of a ceasefire and peace settlement along the before 23 Feb lines, which is similar to my guess the other day. I'm hoping she's right.

For me, the problem will all those analyses is that we never know what actual info they are basing them on. Somebody very high up from the US intelligence said the other day Russia is digging in for a very long war.

 

Going back to the prewar lines would require quite a climbdown from Russia and that would not happen without war going seriously badly for them. If that happens, Ukrainians may resist the pressure to negotiate and decide to push on. I doubt they would pass up on the opportunity to get rid of DNR and LNR once and for all. EU would probably like them to stop, not so sure about the US and UK.

[Gnasher]

5 minutes ago, SasaS said:

For me, the problem will all those analyses is that we never know what actual info they are basing them on. Somebody very high up from the US intelligence said the other day Russia is digging in for a very long war.

 

Going back to the prewar lines would require quite a climbdown from Russia and that would not happen without war going seriously badly for them. If that happens, Ukrainians may resist the pressure to negotiate and decide to push on. I doubt they would pass up on the opportunity to get rid of DNR and LNR once and for all. EU would probably like them to stop, not so sure about the US and UK.

OK cheers.

[Rico1304]

14 minutes ago, SasaS said:

For me, the problem will all those analyses is that we never know what actual info they are basing them on. Somebody very high up from the US intelligence said the other day Russia is digging in for a very long war.

 

Going back to the prewar lines would require quite a climbdown from Russia and that would not happen without war going seriously badly for them. If that happens, Ukrainians may resist the pressure to negotiate and decide to push on. I doubt they would pass up on the opportunity to get rid of DNR and LNR once and for all. EU would probably like them to stop, not so sure about the US and UK.

If the Ukrainians get the heavy artillery they’ve been promised doesn’t it mean they’ll be able to pound the Russians into a fine bloody mist?  They’ll be relying on being resupplied by ground so that’ll become increasingly difficult.  

[Captain Willard]

I’m getting uncomfortable with the comments accompanying videos on Twitter showing Russian tanks being destroyed. Although the Russians are 100% to blame, people are laughing at teenage conscripts being burnt alive. These are people’s kids. I’m not going to watch them anymore. 

[SasaS]

34 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

If the Ukrainians get the heavy artillery they’ve been promised doesn’t it mean they’ll be able to pound the Russians into a fine bloody mist?  They’ll be relying on being resupplied by ground so that’ll become increasingly difficult.  

As I understand it, they already have a lot of artillery (it has been their main weapon so far, according to an analysis by the local military expert), this is more to achieve or tip the balance in their favour, they already have something like 2,000 pieces of towed and self-propelled guns (if memory serves) and the US is sending up to 90 more modern, accurate and longer-range howitzers.

 

There are also other, smaller shipments from various Western countries and a lot of from CR and Slovakia, but it's not like they would just be able to pound them at will. I think it is some 200 to 300 pieces in total. It will all have to be introduced, maintained, supplied, linked with drones etc.

[Rico1304]

15 minutes ago, SasaS said:

As I understand it, they already have a lot of artillery (it has been their main weapon so far, according to an analysis by the local military expert), this is more to achieve or tip the balance in their favour, they already have something like 2,000 pieces of towed and self-propelled guns (if memory serves) and the US is sending up to 90 more modern, accurate and longer-range howitzers.

 

There are also other, smaller shipments from various Western countries and a lot of from CR and Slovakia, but it's not like they would just be able to pound them at will. I think it is some 200 to 300 pieces in total. It will all have to be introduced, maintained, supplied, linked with drones etc.

Is it not GPS nowadays?  If you know where you are, you know exactly where everyone is. 

[Mudface]

30 minutes ago, Captain Willard said:

I’m getting uncomfortable with the comments accompanying videos on Twitter showing Russian tanks being destroyed. Although the Russians are 100% to blame, people are laughing at teenage conscripts being burnt alive. These are people’s kids. I’m not going to watch them anymore. 

Yeah, I stopped masturbating a while back.

[SasaS]

5 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Is it not GPS nowadays?  If you know where you are, you know exactly where everyone is. 

I wouldn't know, GPS came after my happy go lucky conscript days, but there must be a reason why they are using all those drones and anti-artillery radars.  

[SasaS]

19 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Yeah, I stopped masturbating a while back.