Russia v Ukraine

[Pureblood]

6 minutes ago, A Red said:

The difference between this conflict and Covid is that your views are irrelevant and cannot influence people to do anything that is potentially harmful. 

[Stouffer]

11 hours ago, Section_31 said:

Some proper bellend on Granada before, he's a gym owner and has gone over to fight with no combat experience. He looked exactly as you'd imagine, he was even showing off the camo rucksack he'd bought from famous army stores.

Famous Army Stores rep.

[Section_31]

8 minutes ago, Stouffer said:

Famous Army Stores rep.

 

My Grandad Frank (so called because he was my granddad and his name was Frank, as opposed to my other granddad who wasn't called Frank) used to manage one. He also had a penchant for smoking cigars and watching Sergeant Bilko in bed. I take after him in a number of ways. 

[M_B]

Interesting thread, although I have no idea how accurate it is. Might just be some guy playing games in his bedroom. The stuff about the Chinese Media being embedded with the Russians around Mauripol is interesting though. If they find any neo nazi stuff from the Azov battalion there then it'll be all over Chinese and Russia media.

 

 

[Gnasher]

 

[Gnasher]

For those interested,

 

 

[Gnasher]

I don't believe they've costed in or taken account of the possibility of Russian retaliation sanctions yet, 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/08/russia-sanctions-to-cut-uk-living-standards-by-2500-a-person

[DalyanPete]

2 hours ago, redinblack said:

Army & Navy Stores

Ah, memories of being a skinhead and buying chef's white trousers from there.

[Section_31]

I'm constantly staggered by the bravery and pride of ordinary people in Ukraine, regardless of the politics that is or isn't going on, that's something which is beyond dispute, remarkable people. I'm sure the same is true of Russians, this isn't in their name.

[TD_LFC]

51 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

I'm constantly staggered by the bravery and pride of ordinary people in Ukraine, regardless of the politics that is or isn't going on, that's something which is beyond dispute, remarkable people. I'm sure the same is true of Russians, this isn't in their name.

The UK would be fucked in the same position.

 

 

[dockers_strike]

1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

I'm constantly staggered by the bravery and pride of ordinary people in Ukraine, regardless of the politics that is or isn't going on, that's something which is beyond dispute, remarkable people. I'm sure the same is true of Russians, this isn't in their name.

Yep. Saw a vid of a Russia attack helicopter being taken out by a missile. I thought 'there's people in that thing, someone's son, father or brother' and felt for them. They didnt stand a chance once the missile locked on.

 

Equally, I saw another vid of a car driving down a road. It stopped when the driver saw a Russia tank. The tank obliterated the car with 2 shells. Turns out the car was driven by an arl fella and his wife trying to get somewhere safe. I felt for them too and thought the tank commander should rot in hell and get his come uppance.

[Bjornebye]

2 hours ago, Section_31 said:

 

My Grandad Frank (so called because he was my granddad and his name was Frank, as opposed to my other granddad who wasn't called Frank) used to manage one. He also had a penchant for smoking cigars and watching Sergeant Bilko in bed. I take after him in a number of ways. 

 

 

[SasaS]

1 hour ago, Red Shift said:

Old news to some, but news to me. That pesky Pilger again

From 2016

 

*The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague has quietly cleared the late Serbian president, Slobodan Milosevic, of war crimes committed during the 1992-95 Bosnian war, including the massacre at Srebrenica.

 

Far from conspiring with the convicted Bosnian-Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, Milosevic actually "condemned ethnic cleansing", opposed Karadzic and tried to stop the war that dismembered Yugoslavia. Buried near the end of a 2,590 page judgement on Karadzic last February, this truth further demolishes the propaganda that justified Nato's illegal onslaught on Serbia in 1999.........Like Milosevic, Putin is Demon Number One

 

http://johnpilger.com/articles/provoking-nuclear-war-by-media

 

Milosevic actually "condemned ethnic cleansing", opposed Karadzic and tried to stop the war that dismembered Yugoslavia.

 

5 hours ago, Red Shift said:

I keep an eye on LaRouche PAC because they actually get some detail into their reports a lot of the time. They were spot on with this piece, before the ‘global financial crisis’ hit the world:

 

https://larouchepub.com/hzl/2007/3431house_of_cards.html

 

LaRouche was the first to call for a reinstatement of the Glass - Steagall Act, and it took much pain and suffering to reel in the bankers after 2008.

 

In terms of the history of Naziism in Ukraine as per linked dossier, I think there’s too much in there for me to ignore, but you go right ahead. Each to their own.

 

I would ignore you, but since you tagged me with the LaRouche post and upped the ante with Milošević, which is historic revisionism I take personally, I will reply.

 I don't know who you are, just a reincarnation of posters I interacted before, or a new addition. You "keep an eye" on LaRouche because you can pick bullshit from that carcass to fit your ideological construct ("construct" is probably flattering the confusion of poorly understood half-baked ideas that you somehow stumbled upon).

Why I am saying this: it is fairly obvious from your post on Pilger and how his article on Milošević Hague verdict was news to you that you are a relative novice (it was a really big thing at the time, I think I even nudged you slightly in that direction last time you quoted me, when you found and article about Monblot vs. Pilger and searched the thread for "Pilger" so you can insert it somewhere and my old post came up).

Now, since you offered to educate me last time, I feel obliged to return the favour: what I would suggest to you is read some proper "mainstream" history or watch some "mainstream" documentaries, try to understand basic context and then dive into the world of LaRouches and various agenda-driven material.

So, no, Milošević didn't try to stop the war that dismembered Yugoslavia, he was, directly and indirectly  the main instigator and architect of it, he occasionally tried to rein in the forces he unleashed when they threatened to spiral out of control (for political feasibility and tactical reasons) and was very careful not to leave a paper trail behind him (as was the case with assassinations of political opponents in Serbia he and his wife ordered in the '90s).

Same way, Putin is rightly another "demon number one", because he invaded a neighbouring country, threatening to destroy the international security set-up which more or less held up in Europe for decades, killing up to 10,000 people on all sides in less than two weeks, under the pretext of demilitarization and denazification (which cranks from LaRouche organization think was fully justified - let me direct you to their daily video missives on Youtube, just so you further "educate" your self who you consider worth taking seriously. I thought they have gone away for good, but there seems to be renewed demand for what they peddled).

 A small dot on the horizon, completely overshadowed by the previous paragraph

is the "history of Nazism in Ukraine" which has to be studied and understood in its historic and political context. In the context of current Russia's aggression, it is just a propaganda tool which the aggressor uses as justification for its actions for purposes domestic consumption and a topic the same aggressor is constantly trying to introduce in the overall western narrative, in order to make everything just that much more muddled. People who don't understand this are being used for this purpose.  

 

[SasaS]

Apologies for monopolizing the thread for a bit.

 

"Tom from Facebook" - other summaries are available (ISW etc).

* I am posting these because I find them very informative and easy to read. I don't post just a link because the site doesn't link to a FB post properly and I am trying not to drive traffic to Tom Cooper's profile because he is constantly complaining about too many people interacting with him thtough FB as a result. Some of you said you find them useful, but since TK brought it up, I can stop if nobody else is interested, no skin etc. Even better, I can then pass his stuff on here as mine, like I know what is going on. *

 

Over to you Tom

 

"Good morning everybody!

Here my summary for the last 24-36 hours (8 Mar 22).

 

CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)

BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)

GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)

GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)

IFV - infantry fighting vehicle

LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)

MBT - main battle tank

MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)

MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)

RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces

RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration

UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle

VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)

VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)

West OSK – Western Military District, RFA

 

STRATEGIC

I’m slowly getting tired of US-Polish quarrel over delivery of MiG-29s to Ukraine. First the populist idiots in charge in Warsaw announced they’re ready to immediately transfer all of Polish MiGs to the Ramstein AFB (major US air base in Germany), then the Pentagon – mind: the Pentagon, not the State Department (then, contrary to what you’ve been said, it’s the Pentagon that’s running the US foreign policy) – said, ‘we do not know what are you talking about’.

Actually this was supposed to be run in clandestine fashion. The MiGs were simply to ‘disappear’ and get replaced by second-hand F-16s from the USA. And that’s it. ‘Plausible denial’. …BUT, idiotic populist politicians can’t keep anything clandestine – because it’s in their interest to score propaganda points: yeah, lets provoke a WWIII so some populist there can maintain himself in power...

Whatever… few advices for those who like to follow ‘bang stuff’:

- For an excellent overview of what has the West supplied to Ukraine in the last two weeks, check this link:

https://www.overtdefense.com/.../rundown-western-anti...

- For a one-by-one review of all visually confirmed losses in vehicles and aircraft so far, follow the Oryx blog:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/.../attack-on-europe...

The latter is useful because its indicative of the ‘win-loss’ ratio being something like 3.5-to-1 for the Ukrainians – at least in vehicles. Considering all the catastrophic heliborne assaults by the Russian VDV and Chechens, it’s perfectly possible that it’s even higher in terms of human losses (not when one adds Ukrainian civilians, though….BTW, the number of those fleeing into the EU has surpassed 2 million, yesterday).

 

PERSONAL NOTE

Since all my pleas to stop asking me for 'friends' have failed (the counter is past 5000 since 5 days), and I'm still getting 150-200 requests a day, I'm now including it here: if you can, just click on 'follow', please. Right now, I've got no time to find an alternative solution.

 

NORTH

‘The Russians are back‘. Now the 35th CAA is pushing with infantry from the west: over the last two days this has infiltrated and forced Ukrainians out of Borodianka, Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, Korpyliv, Demydiv…. Reportedly, the house-to-house fighting is so bitter, there were multiple cases of hand-to-hand combat and losses are heavy – on both sides.

Further south, the Ukrainian 14th Mechanised seems to have a problem with destroying the survivors of the 35th CAA’s VDV in the Makariv area: thus, the highway connecting Kyiv with the West remains blocked.

 

NORTH-EAST

Fierce fighting has been reported all around Chernihiv, but especially in the south, where the Russians have cut off the last land connection between this ‘pocket’ (held by something like three Ukrainian brigades) and the rest of Ukraine, and the east, where the 41st CAA (that is: BTG 90th Tank Division) attempted an assault directly into the city, but was repelled.

Further south, there is a large pocket held by Ukrainian forces around the Nizhyn. They're holding out and I do not expect anything to happen there soon: the Russians are busy elsewhere.

On the eastern side of Kyiv, and as expected, forward elements of the 2nd GTA – apparently including the 15th GMRB – have reached Bohdanivka on the M01 highway (connecting Kyiv with Chernihiv), only 15km outside Kyiv, yesterday (correspondingly, I’ll ‘move’ the reporting on fighting in this area to ‘NORTH’ in the future). The Ukrainian 1st Tank seems to have survived a concentrated, three-prong attack of the 41st and the 2nd GTA, and to have withdrawn to.... 'somewhere in the Kyiv area'.

Further east, the Russian 1st GTA is lagging badly behind expectations: it's still busy fighting off Ukrainian counterattacks into its southern flank. Seems, the glorious Tamanskaya – the 2nd Guards Mechanised Division, the unit famous for its appearances on May-Parades on the Red Square in Moscow – can’t do anything useful at all. Yes, I do recall: already back in the 1980s RUMINT was that this is just a ‘show/parade/guard-duties’ unit. But what they’re doing now… oh dear… while the 2nd GTA steam-rolled into eastern Kyiv, yesterday, the 2nd GMD failed to capture at least Pryluky. Frankly, as always, I doubt its CO knows where is what part of his unit.

Further....east, not south: the 4th Guards Tank Division – the famous Kantemirovskaya – is only excelling at leaving a trail of destroyed and captured T-80s in its wake, all the way from Konotop (still in Ukrainian hands) to Romny. With other words: the 1st GTA failed to achieve even one third of its war aims so far.

Sumy is enveloped by the 1st GTA and heavily shelled and bombed from the sky – but holding out. The garrison is even running raids against Russian convoys that are trying to bypass the town. A ‘humanitarian cease-fire’ did take place yesterday, and some 3,500 civilians were evacuated, but was then interrupted by renewed fighting. As said already days ago, we’re going to see lots of such scams, the longer this fracas goes on – and all are going to serve two purposes: Russian propaganda (‘evacuating poor civilians that were used as human shields’) and setting the stage free for all-out attacks (‘civilians are evacuated, only terrorists left inside, now we’re free to bomb and shell as we like’).

For all practical purposes, the northern flank of the Russian 6th CAA is on defensive…. Even on retreat: after securing Chuhiv, the Ukrainians claim they have pushed for about 10km north. The 6th CAA reacted with an heliborne assault on Vovchansky District, yesterday, but this pointless effort ended in a panicky withdrawal of the surviving VDVs… That itch in my small toe tells me the CO 6th CAA will be the next Russian general ‘shot by a Nazi sniper’…

 

EAST

The 20th CAA has reached Izium and Rubizhne from the north, and the weakened Ukrainian 53rd Mechanised Brigade seems unable to stop them. Indeed, meanwhile they’re in the process of surrounding Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. There’s a bitter battle for Raisin, with the Russians slowly pushing the Ukranians out of the town. Not sure if it’s a good idea for the Ukrainians further south – along what is left of the original LOC – to let the enemy envelop their northern flak: at least I doubt this war might get solved by negotiations ‘on time’ for them to hold out a siege. On the other side, they've got excellent fortifications there, and are largely safe 'inside' the same.

Mariupol is a bloody shambles. There are reports about massive volumes of the Russian artillery barrages, immense destruction, bodies lying on the streets… Unnecessary to say: a population of about 400,000 is cut off from water, electricity, food and other supplies. I agree with those who say this is going to remain the Russian objective No.1 – ahead of Odessa and Kyiv: it would grant them a land connection to Crimea. Combat-wise, the Russians are pushing on the airport from the south, and pushing through Staryi Krym towards south. On the eastern side of the city, they’ve captured Talakivka and Shryokyne yesterday.

North of Mariupol, the Ukrainians have recovered Volnovakha (apparently smashing a better part of the Separatist Sparta Battalion in the process) and seem to be pushing on Staryi Krym now. This is bold, but I doubt they’ve got enough troops to lift the siege of Mariupol already now: what is left of the 54th Mechanised Brigade is busy holding the LOC, while the 56th Motor Brigade is too weak for the task. Moreover, the Russians seem to be already trying to envelop this advance by pushing on Rozivka, about 15km further north, and that from the east – i.e. into the eastern flank of the 56th.

 

SOUTH

This is a ‘must, must, must’ area for the Russian now. Zusko’s 58th CAA ‘must’ breach towards the West, it ‘must’ reach Odessa, it ‘must’ this and it must that. As if the 58th CAA is the only army of the Russian Armed Forces to fight… And so, and almost certainly on pressure from the West OSK, after failing to take Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, Zusko now launched a new advance – directly towards north. Fast advances are 'fun' for commanders of his BTGs, but overall situation of the western flank of the 58th CAA is literally begging for a catastrophe now: first invest one city; lose troops; then invest another town; lose troops; then have to guard frontlines to both, while assaulting in the third direction….?

Nothing better but to scatter your forces over a huge area, and then let the enemy defeat them one by one… of course, 'everything is going to be fine' because the West OSK sent reinforcements: a train loaded with another BTG of the VDV (BMD-4, BTR-MDM etc.) was sighted while travelling north from Crimea, yesterday.

And still, busy reinforcing Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, Ukrainians seem to have been taken by surprise. Moreover, their 17th Tank Brigade is lamely sitting somewhere north of Kherson and doing nothing for more than a week: either it was badly damaged in earlier fighting, or only partially mobilised (gauging by the Russians looting part of its storage facility: see the attached screen-grab for one of T-64s found there), or its commander prefers to let Zusko do whatever he likes. Gauging by his performance early during the war, I tend to lean towards the latter…

Ah yes, and since Zusko already has his hands full with operations in the west, lets increase his problems by ordering him to resume advance in the east. Therefore, since yesterday the eastern flank of the 58th CAA is pushing on Pologa and Gulay-Pole – apparently with the aim of advancing on Raisin and thus into the back of the Ukrainian troops along the LOC.

With this, Zaporozhye should be safe. For the time being.

[Anubis]

Tom is TLW’s man on the ground. Even if he’s not actually on the ground and doesn’t know what TLW is.

[TheHowieLama]

6 minutes ago, Anubis said:

Tom is TLW’s man on the ground. Even if he’s not actually on the ground and doesn’t know what TLW is.

You don't have to be on the ground or know what TLW is to, well you know...

[Gnasher]

2 hours ago, Gnasher said:

I don't believe they've costed in or taken account of the possibility of Russian retaliation sanctions yet, 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/08/russia-sanctions-to-cut-uk-living-standards-by-2500-a-person

But swings and roundabouts, whilst British, Russian, Ukraine people face paying a heavy price for war (an enormous one for Ukrainians) some sense an opportunity where fortunes can be made,

 

 

 

[Anubis]

4 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

But swings and roundabouts, whilst British, Russian, Ukraine people face paying a heavy price for war (an enormous one for Ukrainians) some sense an opportunity where fortunes can be made,

 

 

 

Opportunistic fucks. 

[Gnasher]

2 minutes ago, Anubis said:

Opportunistic fucks. 

A lot of big people, politicians included have their eye on a lot of big prizes, I do wonder why their is such little push for a settlement of some sort, especially as a protracted war is going to see a hugh recession and many businesses and whole high streets going to the wall.

[Gnasher]

46 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Apologies for monopolizing the thread for a bit.

 

"Tom from Facebook" - other summaries are available (ISW etc).

* I am posting these because I find them very informative and easy to read. I don't post just a link because the site doesn't link to a FB post properly and I am trying not to drive traffic to Tom Cooper's profile because he is constantly complaining about too many people interacting with him thtough FB as a result. Some of you said you find them useful, but since TK brought it up, I can stop if nobody else is interested, no skin etc. Even better, I can then pass his stuff on here as mine, like I know what is going on. *

 

Over to you Tom

 

"Good morning everybody!

Here my summary for the last 24-36 hours (8 Mar 22).

 

CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)

BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)

GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)

GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)

IFV - infantry fighting vehicle

LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)

MBT - main battle tank

MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)

MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)

RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces

RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration

UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle

VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)

VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)

West OSK – Western Military District, RFA

 

STRATEGIC

I’m slowly getting tired of US-Polish quarrel over delivery of MiG-29s to Ukraine. First the populist idiots in charge in Warsaw announced they’re ready to immediately transfer all of Polish MiGs to the Ramstein AFB (major US air base in Germany), then the Pentagon – mind: the Pentagon, not the State Department (then, contrary to what you’ve been said, it’s the Pentagon that’s running the US foreign policy) – said, ‘we do not know what are you talking about’.

Actually this was supposed to be run in clandestine fashion. The MiGs were simply to ‘disappear’ and get replaced by second-hand F-16s from the USA. And that’s it. ‘Plausible denial’. …BUT, idiotic populist politicians can’t keep anything clandestine – because it’s in their interest to score propaganda points: yeah, lets provoke a WWIII so some populist there can maintain himself in power...

Whatever… few advices for those who like to follow ‘bang stuff’:

- For an excellent overview of what has the West supplied to Ukraine in the last two weeks, check this link:

https://www.overtdefense.com/.../rundown-western-anti...

- For a one-by-one review of all visually confirmed losses in vehicles and aircraft so far, follow the Oryx blog:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/.../attack-on-europe...

The latter is useful because its indicative of the ‘win-loss’ ratio being something like 3.5-to-1 for the Ukrainians – at least in vehicles. Considering all the catastrophic heliborne assaults by the Russian VDV and Chechens, it’s perfectly possible that it’s even higher in terms of human losses (not when one adds Ukrainian civilians, though….BTW, the number of those fleeing into the EU has surpassed 2 million, yesterday).

 

PERSONAL NOTE

Since all my pleas to stop asking me for 'friends' have failed (the counter is past 5000 since 5 days), and I'm still getting 150-200 requests a day, I'm now including it here: if you can, just click on 'follow', please. Right now, I've got no time to find an alternative solution.

 

NORTH

‘The Russians are back‘. Now the 35th CAA is pushing with infantry from the west: over the last two days this has infiltrated and forced Ukrainians out of Borodianka, Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, Korpyliv, Demydiv…. Reportedly, the house-to-house fighting is so bitter, there were multiple cases of hand-to-hand combat and losses are heavy – on both sides.

Further south, the Ukrainian 14th Mechanised seems to have a problem with destroying the survivors of the 35th CAA’s VDV in the Makariv area: thus, the highway connecting Kyiv with the West remains blocked.

 

NORTH-EAST

Fierce fighting has been reported all around Chernihiv, but especially in the south, where the Russians have cut off the last land connection between this ‘pocket’ (held by something like three Ukrainian brigades) and the rest of Ukraine, and the east, where the 41st CAA (that is: BTG 90th Tank Division) attempted an assault directly into the city, but was repelled.

Further south, there is a large pocket held by Ukrainian forces around the Nizhyn. They're holding out and I do not expect anything to happen there soon: the Russians are busy elsewhere.

On the eastern side of Kyiv, and as expected, forward elements of the 2nd GTA – apparently including the 15th GMRB – have reached Bohdanivka on the M01 highway (connecting Kyiv with Chernihiv), only 15km outside Kyiv, yesterday (correspondingly, I’ll ‘move’ the reporting on fighting in this area to ‘NORTH’ in the future). The Ukrainian 1st Tank seems to have survived a concentrated, three-prong attack of the 41st and the 2nd GTA, and to have withdrawn to.... 'somewhere in the Kyiv area'.

Further east, the Russian 1st GTA is lagging badly behind expectations: it's still busy fighting off Ukrainian counterattacks into its southern flank. Seems, the glorious Tamanskaya – the 2nd Guards Mechanised Division, the unit famous for its appearances on May-Parades on the Red Square in Moscow – can’t do anything useful at all. Yes, I do recall: already back in the 1980s RUMINT was that this is just a ‘show/parade/guard-duties’ unit. But what they’re doing now… oh dear… while the 2nd GTA steam-rolled into eastern Kyiv, yesterday, the 2nd GMD failed to capture at least Pryluky. Frankly, as always, I doubt its CO knows where is what part of his unit.

Further....east, not south: the 4th Guards Tank Division – the famous Kantemirovskaya – is only excelling at leaving a trail of destroyed and captured T-80s in its wake, all the way from Konotop (still in Ukrainian hands) to Romny. With other words: the 1st GTA failed to achieve even one third of its war aims so far.

Sumy is enveloped by the 1st GTA and heavily shelled and bombed from the sky – but holding out. The garrison is even running raids against Russian convoys that are trying to bypass the town. A ‘humanitarian cease-fire’ did take place yesterday, and some 3,500 civilians were evacuated, but was then interrupted by renewed fighting. As said already days ago, we’re going to see lots of such scams, the longer this fracas goes on – and all are going to serve two purposes: Russian propaganda (‘evacuating poor civilians that were used as human shields’) and setting the stage free for all-out attacks (‘civilians are evacuated, only terrorists left inside, now we’re free to bomb and shell as we like’).

For all practical purposes, the northern flank of the Russian 6th CAA is on defensive…. Even on retreat: after securing Chuhiv, the Ukrainians claim they have pushed for about 10km north. The 6th CAA reacted with an heliborne assault on Vovchansky District, yesterday, but this pointless effort ended in a panicky withdrawal of the surviving VDVs… That itch in my small toe tells me the CO 6th CAA will be the next Russian general ‘shot by a Nazi sniper’…

 

EAST

The 20th CAA has reached Izium and Rubizhne from the north, and the weakened Ukrainian 53rd Mechanised Brigade seems unable to stop them. Indeed, meanwhile they’re in the process of surrounding Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. There’s a bitter battle for Raisin, with the Russians slowly pushing the Ukranians out of the town. Not sure if it’s a good idea for the Ukrainians further south – along what is left of the original LOC – to let the enemy envelop their northern flak: at least I doubt this war might get solved by negotiations ‘on time’ for them to hold out a siege. On the other side, they've got excellent fortifications there, and are largely safe 'inside' the same.

Mariupol is a bloody shambles. There are reports about massive volumes of the Russian artillery barrages, immense destruction, bodies lying on the streets… Unnecessary to say: a population of about 400,000 is cut off from water, electricity, food and other supplies. I agree with those who say this is going to remain the Russian objective No.1 – ahead of Odessa and Kyiv: it would grant them a land connection to Crimea. Combat-wise, the Russians are pushing on the airport from the south, and pushing through Staryi Krym towards south. On the eastern side of the city, they’ve captured Talakivka and Shryokyne yesterday.

North of Mariupol, the Ukrainians have recovered Volnovakha (apparently smashing a better part of the Separatist Sparta Battalion in the process) and seem to be pushing on Staryi Krym now. This is bold, but I doubt they’ve got enough troops to lift the siege of Mariupol already now: what is left of the 54th Mechanised Brigade is busy holding the LOC, while the 56th Motor Brigade is too weak for the task. Moreover, the Russians seem to be already trying to envelop this advance by pushing on Rozivka, about 15km further north, and that from the east – i.e. into the eastern flank of the 56th.

 

SOUTH

This is a ‘must, must, must’ area for the Russian now. Zusko’s 58th CAA ‘must’ breach towards the West, it ‘must’ reach Odessa, it ‘must’ this and it must that. As if the 58th CAA is the only army of the Russian Armed Forces to fight… And so, and almost certainly on pressure from the West OSK, after failing to take Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, Zusko now launched a new advance – directly towards north. Fast advances are 'fun' for commanders of his BTGs, but overall situation of the western flank of the 58th CAA is literally begging for a catastrophe now: first invest one city; lose troops; then invest another town; lose troops; then have to guard frontlines to both, while assaulting in the third direction….?

Nothing better but to scatter your forces over a huge area, and then let the enemy defeat them one by one… of course, 'everything is going to be fine' because the West OSK sent reinforcements: a train loaded with another BTG of the VDV (BMD-4, BTR-MDM etc.) was sighted while travelling north from Crimea, yesterday.

And still, busy reinforcing Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, Ukrainians seem to have been taken by surprise. Moreover, their 17th Tank Brigade is lamely sitting somewhere north of Kherson and doing nothing for more than a week: either it was badly damaged in earlier fighting, or only partially mobilised (gauging by the Russians looting part of its storage facility: see the attached screen-grab for one of T-64s found there), or its commander prefers to let Zusko do whatever he likes. Gauging by his performance early during the war, I tend to lean towards the latter…

Ah yes, and since Zusko already has his hands full with operations in the west, lets increase his problems by ordering him to resume advance in the east. Therefore, since yesterday the eastern flank of the 58th CAA is pushing on Pologa and Gulay-Pole – apparently with the aim of advancing on Raisin and thus into the back of the Ukrainian troops along the LOC.

With this, Zaporozhye should be safe. For the time being.

Thanks for posting. A couple of points, I guessed the Russian generals being killed by sniper fire may not be the true story and its very possibly an in house assassination for failure as hinted in the report.

 

I gave a link futher up by an Australian general who also said Mariupol was a mess and of hugh importance but the Russians were now apparently planning to cross by a route further north and bypass it.

 

Odessa is very interesting as it a heavily speaking Russian city which saw the arson attack in 2014 which killed 30 mainly Russian trade unionists. The city is thought to be defended by a somewhat controversial Azov general who after the last war was wanted by Amnesty. If Russia did take Odessa they'd control all the ports and the Ukrainians would be landlocked. A lot of variables there.

 

 

[SasaS]

48 minutes ago, Anubis said:

Tom is TLW’s man on the ground. Even if he’s not actually on the ground and doesn’t know what TLW is.

I think he is in Austria or something.

[Gnasher]

3 hours ago, Gnasher said:

I don't believe they've costed in or taken account of the possibility of Russian retaliation sanctions yet, 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/08/russia-sanctions-to-cut-uk-living-standards-by-2500-a-person

 

Meanwhile, although you wouldn't think it if you listened to our journalists, most Americans favour a more cautious approach to this conflict, note the political response,

 

 

[Pureblood]

I don't mind if you post stuff from Tom on Facebook, or from anywhere else.

 

I don't take any person who claims that they know what's going on "on the ground" at face value, especially if they're based in another country.  

[SasaS]

2 hours ago, dockers_strike said:

Yep. Saw a vid of a Russia attack helicopter being taken out by a missile. I thought 'there's people in that thing, someone's son, father or brother' and felt for them. They didnt stand a chance once the missile locked on.

 

Equally, I saw another vid of a car driving down a road. It stopped when the driver saw a Russia tank. The tank obliterated the car with 2 shells. Turns out the car was driven by an arl fella and his wife trying to get somewhere safe. I felt for them too and thought the tank commander should rot in hell and get his come uppance.

I am constantly amazed at the level of interaction between civilians and Russian army, all those cars allowed to drive parallel to military columns, civilians shouting at soldiers, there is a video of two villagers shouting at and chasing away three Russian soldiers out of their yard.  

 

In that car video, to be fair to the Russian army, the car had a misfortune of driving down the road which links with the Russian military column possibly passing through an unsecured territory, maybe even advancing. The driver then makes a mistake of stopping and staying in a position ideal for an ambush, where the gunner of the passing armoured vehicle must make a split second decision, is this an ambush or not.

[Fugitive]

6 hours ago, Stouffer said:

Famous Army Stores rep.

Did their used to be one by queen's square bus station before it was a bus station?