Russia v Ukraine

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

You were all in on boycotting him weren't ya?

I was all in on him being punished for lying about his vaccine status yeah. That ok? 

[TheHowieLama]

16 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

I was all in on him being punished for lying about his vaccine status yeah. That ok? 

I am not sure that is what happened - I think in the end the gubmint overruled the courts decision that he had been granted an exemption - it did not state the exemption was never granted. Agreed that he should have been banned.

 

Interestingly I think he is banned from returning to Australia because of this.

Does that seem right?

 

In any case I first brought this up the day the war started. The same day Medvedev became #1 in the world and broached the idea that Russian athletes would be banned, while hoping they wouldn't as our hockey team has two of the greatest players in the world who are Russian. 

In the end there is too much Russian talent in the NHL for that to have happened - if there was a decent Russian golfer I imagine they would be banned now as well, easier to do in individual sports.

Don't follow track and field, or say gymnastics - what is the status there I wonder.

 

EDIT - this acknowledges that Russia are already banned from certain events for being giant dopes.

[Bjornebye]

3 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

I am not sure that is what happened - I think in the end the gubmint overruled the courts decision that he had been granted an exemption - it did not state the exemption was never granted. Agreed that he should have been banned.

 

Interestingly I think he is banned from returning to Australia because of this.

Does that seem right?

 

In any case I first brought this up the day the war started. The same day Medvedev became #1 in the world and broached the idea that Russian athletes would be banned, while hoping they wouldn't as our hockey team has two of the greatest players in the world who are Russian. 

In the end there is too much Russian talent in the NHL for that to have happened - if there was a decent Russian golfer I imagine they would be banned now as well, easier to do in individual sports.

Don't follow track and field, or say gymnastics - what is the status there I wonder.

He did lie didn't he? Anyway, it's not the same thing here.

 

Medvedev is being punished simply for being Russian and that doesn't sit right with me. 

[Jordy Brouwer]

3 hours ago, SasaS said:

Where did you get that "most conservative estimates" of 7k to 10k in Mariupol? That sounds totally insane. If they had 10k, Russians would still be pushing towards Sartana. Mariupol was defended by some 5-6 battalions (1 Azov, 2 marines, 1 National guard and 1 territorial defence that I am aware of) plus 2 tank companies (Azov and marines) plus elements and detachments of border guards/coast guards, some local police and special police. None of the brigades were there in its full formation. Wikipedia had it at 3,500, I was told it was about 3,000 by a person with connections to UAF. A British analyst said 4k to 5k in some interview if I remember correctly. It sounds about right when you look at the number of POWs. The highest estimate I heard was 600 dead defenders, they were speaking about 200 bodies at Azovstal needing evacuation.  

 

On artillery - highest losses are always when you are attacking, or crossing open ground, or in unfortified areas.

 

People throw around these casuality numbers, like Russians would still be on the offensive if they lost 40 percent of their manpower, or Ukrainians would be, until recently, still holding most of the lines in Donbas after 3 monthes with that kind of losses.

I may have got it wrong with regards to Mariupol, I can't remenber where I got that figure but I doubt it was as low as 3500 - the Russians have taken 2300+ prisoner alone and there are reports of a lot of bodies. 

 

Casualties in constantly bombarded prepared positions creep up which is one of the reasons I reckon Ukrainian casualties are higher now - firepower. 

 

Your last point is entirely correct. People do throw out high casualty numbers which can't be consistent with what is actually happening. 

[DJLJ]

Just now, Jordy Brouwer said:

I may have got it wrong with regards to Mariupol, I can't remenber where I got that figure but I doubt it was as low as 3500 - the Russians have taken 2300+ prisoner alone and there are reports of a lot of bodies. 

 

Casualties in constantly bombarded prepared positions creep up which is one of the reasons I reckon Ukrainian casualties are higher now - firepower. 

 

Your last point is entirely correct. People do throw out high casualty numbers which can't be consistent with what is actually happening. 

There also seem to be a mix of ‘Killed’ and ‘Killed and Wounded’ and ‘Killed and Wounded and Missing’ numbers being bandied around. The last number will be some amount of x higher, so perhaps that is the one some people are using. 

[SasaS]

4 minutes ago, Jordy Brouwer said:

I may have got it wrong with regards to Mariupol, I can't remenber where I got that figure but I doubt it was as low as 3500 - the Russians have taken 2300+ prisoner alone and there are reports of a lot of bodies. 

 

Casualties in constantly bombarded prepared positions creep up which is one of the reasons I reckon Ukrainian casualties are higher now - firepower. 

 

Your last point is entirely correct. People do throw out high casualty numbers which can't be consistent with what is actually happening. 

I think bodies are mostly civilians. Don't think defenders had catastrophic losses overall, considering the leveling of the parts of the city and overall intensity of Russian bombardment. Prisoners are about 3,000 including wounded and previously surrendered at Ilichstal and the battalion which, as Prokopenko said at the time at a press conference, surrendered the position between the two industrial zones. Some were taken out by helicopter, but probably not that many.

 

Russian forces had about 15,000 in one rotation, and this is again according to Azov CO in one of the interviews he gave to Dmitri Gordon, and he would probably be more likely to give a higher than lower number. If there were considerably more than 3.5k or 4k defenders, I don't think they would have been able to take the city, considering so many of defenders were trained active duty soldiers.

[Gnasher]

Highway to hell. Poor soldier at the end of the clip looks shellshocked,

 

 

[No2]

16 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

He did lie didn't he? Anyway, it's not the same thing here.

 

Medvedev is being punished simply for being Russian and that doesn't sit right with me. 

Loads of individuals are being punished for simply being Russian. Consequences of war and all that. Maybe some tennis fans in Russia will start asking why they are being banned if its only a "special operation"?

[Bjornebye]

23 minutes ago, No2 said:

Loads of individuals are being punished for simply being Russian. Consequences of war and all that. Maybe some tennis fans in Russia will start asking why they are being banned if its only a "special operation"?

Still doesn't sit right with me. Mind you, I'm a Medvedev fan. 

[SasaS]

Defensionem military website have obviously been reading our discussion of casualties in Ukraine and wrote their own post, probably also inspired by Zelensky going public with "we are losing 50 to 100 people in Donbas every day". Which they immediately interpret as:

 

a) true and in no way aimed at conditioning domestic public for a bigger withdrawal from the Severodonetsk salient or even for return to talks with Russia which they may or may not be under pressure to do, or even testing the water of how the public will react to possibility of territorial concessions;

 

b) underestimated and constant, so they jump to "200 dead a day" which is obviously 600 wounded a day (x3) and go back to Russian casualties (20k dead and 50 k wounded - suddenly "historic" x3 doesn't apply here, for obvious reasons, that would mean Russians have lost 80k or over 40% of their 190,000 contingent).

 

By the way, Zelensky also apparently said Russians have 20 times more equipment in Donbas than the Ukrainian defenders, which sounds ridiculous to me.

 

Anyway, here is a link to a still very interesting post on casualties.

 

https://www.facebook.com/defensionem/posts/5033493716697722

 

Russia started the war in Ukraine with 190,000 men. At the same time, Ukraine had an active duty force of about 250,000 men.

We are now at a point where Russia has lost around 50,000 men, with an estimated 20,000 dead and 30,000 wounded. We are talking about 30% losses. And not all of them have been replaced by reinforcements.

Russian losses stats are taken from US and Ukrainian estimates, as Moscow's own data is unreliable on this subject.

On the other hand, Ukraine is estimated to have lost around 25,000 to 30,000 men. That's at least 10% of its original manpower (standing armed forces/active duty).

This estimate comes from Western sources as relayed by Time as Kiev's own data is undisclosed most of the time and unreliable when shared...

[Clem H Fandango]

On 23/05/2022 at 10:45, Bjornebye said:

It’s absolute bollocks banning Russian players. What the fuck has it got to do with them? 

Imagine the booing if they were allowed in. Can't be having that at snooty Wimbledon.

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, Clem H Fandango said:

Imagine the booing if they were allowed in. Can't be having that at snooty Wimbledon.

Cliff Richard throwing strawberries at him. Fuck the Wimbledon crowd. Toff bastards. 

 

They've removed ranking points for this years Wimbledon as a result of the bans apparently. 

[Clem H Fandango]

Besides tennis, Russian athletes can fuck off even if they don't support the war.

Notorious throughout every sporting history the last 40 fucking years of cheating with drugs.

[Bjornebye]

16 minutes ago, Clem H Fandango said:

Besides tennis, Russian athletes can fuck off even if they don't support the war.

Notorious throughout every sporting history the last 40 fucking years of cheating with drugs.

 

 

[SasaS]

Short unscheduled update from Tom Cooper.

 

Reports a retired major-general died in the recently shot down RUS Su-25 are true and he was flying as a mercenary for Wagner, which are now also providing air force services apparently. UKR has redeployed a mechanized brigade from Mykolaiv all the way to the Severodonetsk salient, indicating, I would say, they are not ready to give it up just yet.

 

There is increased presence of Wagner troops, which would explain, again in my opinion, how the Kremlin intends to solve the problem of not enough manpower: private sector. That must be why Rand Paul supports Russia.   

 

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-24-may-2022-dce696ec139b

[DJLJ]

How big is the Wagner group supposed to be? If the 8k mentioned on Wikipedia is correct, then obviously it can have some influence, but surely not as much as mentioned in the briefing above etc.?

[SasaS]

4 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

How big is the Wagner group supposed to be? If the 8k mentioned on Wikipedia is correct, then obviously it can have some influence, but surely not as much as mentioned in the briefing above etc.?

Maybe the size is flexible, so what they do is, simply transfer soldiers / former soldiers or volunteers wishing to go to Ukraine to Wagner, which then acts as a mercenary army without the need for regular army structure or transparency, thus creating legal loopholes for accountability and avoiding the army commanding hierarchy and some of the supply problems.

 

On the other hand, that can extend only so far. But in short term, several thousand of good troops can make a difference. I read somewhere that the entire push at Popasna was maybe 5 or 6 BTGs. Many sources observed they have changed tactics and are now operating with smaller and more independent formations.

[TheHowieLama]

Are the Wagner Group the Nazis?

[SasaS]

Opera buffs.

[Strontium]

 

[Guest]

On 23/05/2022 at 10:45, Bjornebye said:

It’s absolute bollocks banning Russian players. What the fuck has it got to do with them? 

[DJLJ]

We’re all going to hell. 
 

https://m.independent.ie/videos/russian-state-tv-suggests-things-will-end-badly-for-all-of-humanity-if-russia-loses-war-in-ukraine-41682132.html

[TheHowieLama]

26 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

We’re all going to hell. 
 

https://m.independent.ie/videos/russian-state-tv-suggests-things-will-end-badly-for-all-of-humanity-if-russia-loses-war-in-ukraine-41682132.html

It is fun to laugh at how MAGA or Johnson/Brexit act - but imagine being some regular Joe in Russia. 

The divides between groups of individuals there are certainly unbridgeable.

 

And it's LIVE!!

[Gnasher]

Thought this cunt was dead,

 

 

[Anubis]

4 hours ago, SasaS said:

Reports a retired major-general died in the recently shot down RUS Su-25 are true..,

He was the very model of a modern major-general.