Russia v Ukraine

[Red Phoenix]

11 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

US president Joe Biden warned that Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power" in a rousing speech to crowds in Warsaw.

 

Someone get him some ice cream so he shuts the fuck up.

[Ne Moe Imya]

10 hours ago, cochyn said:

Great post, I appreciate your view on this whole situation.

 

I wonder if Putin will be lucky to come out of this with his head still attached to his shoulders? I'm sure his Praetorian Guard and the FSB have a far clearer picture of how this calamity has unfolded. His army certainly (and painfully) does having been sent into a stupid war so ill equipped.  I'm guessing that- within the Kremlin at least - this is a national embarrassment, surely? 

 

Or do you think the combined 'authorities' will just come together to gloss over this in the name of keeping Putin in his seat and the money flowing into their Swiss bank accounts? He would then spin this as a win and begin a massive 'reinvestment drive' in his 'victorious' army. Such a deceit of the Russian people would literally rely on fooling all the people all the time for years to come..

I think Putin, like any dictator, is always living with the sword of Damocles hanging over his head. This situation will certainly have brought that into sharp focus, but it's always there, and it informs his actions about almost everything.

 

Why does Putin have to poison Navalny? Because he just watched how street protests about corruption brought down the president he had installed in Ukraine. Why does he arrest people for holding up blank pieces of paper? Because any dissent at all can spread, and can then get out of hand in unpredictable ways that might lead to him losing power. And if he loses power, he's going to end up dead or in prison.

 

So yes, for Putin there's a risk, however, I don't actually think it's as big a risk as you might think. Putin has been in power for so long, and his grasp on it is so complete, that he's had plenty of time to get rid of anyone who would be even close to being a threat. While we in the West might think "hang on, the average Russian has got to be realising how bad he is" the truth is, they're not, and if they do, they know well enough to keep their mouths shut.

 

I suppose it's possible to imagine a scenario where a bunch of the oligarchs or military leaders come together and decide to take him down, but it's pretty far-fetched IMO. Because it's a real "come at the king, you best not miss" scenario. And add into that anyone close enough to the halls of power to have the leverage to do it is certainly tarnished by long association with him, and they'll know that whatever government emerges from his downfall, there's a good chance they will be put in prison by THAT government, so the motivation to risk something big is diminished.

[Ne Moe Imya]

Apologies, double post.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

Apologies, double post.

I'd have read it twice.

[Aventus]

50 minutes ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

So yes, for Putin there's a risk, however, I don't actually think it's as big a risk as you might think. 

If you're blue, and you don't know where to go to, why don't you go where fashion sits?

 

Putin on the risk. 

[ManéMan]

3 hours ago, Anubis said:

The Russian Embassy in France. Shots fired. Shots fired.

 

 

Hypocrites.  What happened to liberty, equality, and fraternity or whatever the bullshit is!

[torahboy]

9 hours ago, SasaS said:

Well, it is a thread dedicated to this topic. If I come to the cricket thread to ridicule people for having an interest in cricket and discussing it based on what they read in the media, having personally not made any other contribution, that would be pretty weird.  

Who did I 'ridicule'? I merely expressed surprise at the number of posters who had such insight into a conflict where the fog of war has been complemented by the smog of a media committed to one side of a quite complicated argument. Sorry if I have intruded.

 

Now, where's that fucking cricket thread?

[SasaS]

11 minutes ago, torahboy said:

Who did I 'ridicule'? I merely expressed surprise at the number of posters who had such insight into a conflict where the fog of war has been complemented by the smog of a media committed to one side of a quite complicated argument. Sorry if I have intruded.

 

Now, where's that fucking cricket thread?

I'd say this thread has been above average so far, even I found a lot of useful links and info, and I estimate I am maybe a week from reaching total enlightenment on the subject, as evidenced by brilliance of my expressed opinions and shrewd analytical points.

[Arniepie]

2 hours ago, Ne Moe Imya said:

I think Putin, like any dictator, is always living with the sword of Damocles hanging over his head. This situation will certainly have brought that into sharp focus, but it's always there, and it informs his actions about almost everything.

 

Why does Putin have to poison Navalny? Because he just watched how street protests about corruption brought down the president he had installed in Ukraine. Why does he arrest people for holding up blank pieces of paper? Because any dissent at all can spread, and can then get out of hand in unpredictable ways that might lead to him losing power. And if he loses power, he's going to end up dead or in prison.

 

So yes, for Putin there's a risk, however, I don't actually think it's as big a risk as you might think. Putin has been in power for so long, and his grasp on it is so complete, that he's had plenty of time to get rid of anyone who would be even close to being a threat. While we in the West might think "hang on, the average Russian has got to be realising how bad he is" the truth is, they're not, and if they do, they know well enough to keep their mouths shut.

 

I suppose it's possible to imagine a scenario where a bunch of the oligarchs or military leaders come together and decide to take him down, but it's pretty far-fetched IMO. Because it's a real "come at the king, you best not miss" scenario. And add into that anyone close enough to the halls of power to have the leverage to do it is certainly tarnished by long association with him, and they'll know that whatever government emerges from his downfall, there's a good chance they will be put in prison by THAT government, so the motivation to risk something big is diminished.

Some excellent points there 

[M_B]

 

On 25/03/2022 at 20:46, torahboy said:

The number of military starategists on this site is quite incredible, a bit like the media's coverage of the conflict in Ukraine.

 

1 hour ago, torahboy said:

Who did I 'ridicule'? I merely expressed surprise at the number of posters who had such insight into a conflict where the fog of war has been complemented by the smog of a media committed to one side of a quite complicated argument. Sorry if I have intruded.

That's plain old cynicism. Fuck off.

 

[M_B]

11 hours ago, torahboy said:

And my contribution to that 'discussion' is to remark on how many participants appear to understand how a conflict is progressing based on, mainly, stories from a media reporting for one side. If you wish to dissect and discuss the complexities of military manoeuvres in eastern Europe then by all means do. I don't think I suggested that such conversation and speculation should be curatiled. But, if in the pub this afternoon, someone starts chatting about Russia's tactical decimation of Mariupol then I might just be tempted to tell them to 'Shut the fuck up and watch the horse racing'

No, your contribution was to be a cynical cunt. Who can't spell.

[Captain Turdseye]

People on internet in ‘talking about stuff’ shocker!

[Section_31]

To be fair, I know it's a low bar but the GF could deffo do a better job of planning an invasion than the Russian High Command.

 

Stig could start a poll called "airborne assault or beach landings" 

 

SD could claim that all successful battles were planned in the 2010 Lib Dem manifesto. 

 

Detailed reports would be compiled by Elite on which enemy commanders likes beans on a fry up, and Fuge would post pictures of Ukrainian birds he'd slept with in Ibiza.

[Red Shift]

Part Two : Revealing Ukraine.

 

includes Stone’s interview with poker faced Putin.

 

Ukraine has gone from being a strong exporter, to being a net importer. It’s industry has collapsed, and U.S. business benefits - touches on Clinton’s dirty tactics to stop the Trump presidential campaign that backfired - Ukrainian interference in American Elections - the failure of Zelensky to bring peace to Donbas (his election mandate) - the final confrontation that may end all our lives.

 

The Cast:-

 

 

 

 

[Rico1304]

22 minutes ago, Captain Turdseye said:

People on internet in ‘talking about stuff’ shocker!

‘People pontificating rarely know what they are talking about’ 

 

Edit: obviously those with military experience may have more to say. But Stig telling us about being bummed in the navy is funny but not so relevant. 

 

[Aventus]

20 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

To be fair, I know it's a low bar but the GF could deffo do a better job of planning an invasion than the Russian High Command.

 

Stig could start a poll called "airborne assault or beach landings" 

 

SD could claim that all successful battles were planned in the 2010 Lib Dem manifesto. 

 

Detailed reports would be compiled by Elite on which enemy commanders likes beans on a fry up, and Fuge would post pictures of Ukrainian birds he'd slept with in Ibiza.

Gimp XI: World Police

[torahboy]

1 hour ago, M_B said:

No, your contribution was to be a cynical cunt. Who can't spell.

I can't compete with such highbrow stuff. Enjoy your war, killer.

[General Dryness]

8 hours ago, Section_31 said:

Seven generals killed and one run over in a tank by his own men. That's amazing.

I'm staying in bed.

[General Dryness]

2 hours ago, Section_31 said:

To be fair, I know it's a low bar but the GF could deffo do a better job of planning an invasion than the Russian High Command.

 

Stig could start a poll called "airborne assault or beach landings" 

 

SD could claim that all successful battles were planned in the 2010 Lib Dem manifesto. 

 

Detailed reports would be compiled by Elite on which enemy commanders likes beans on a fry up, and Fuge would post pictures of Ukrainian birds he'd slept with in Ibiza.

Lifey could do the catering and the flamethrower. 

[Red Shift]

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/25/ukrainian-blood-their-hands-analysis-details-how-big-oil-funded-putins-war-chest

 

 

[YorkshireRed]

6 hours ago, General Dryness said:

Lifey could do the catering

@Carvalho Diablosays hello.

[Anubis]

56 minutes ago, YorkshireRed said:

@Carvalho Diablosays hello.

You want to poison your own troops? Really?

[YorkshireRed]

4 minutes ago, Anubis said:

You want to poison your own troops? Really?

An army marching on CD’s hot sauce and peas based dishes and eating from ration sized red buckets will be a force to behold. 
 

They say an army marches on its stomachs. Oh boy what stomachs this army will have. 

[SasaS]

 

Tom from Facebook, two days for the price of one:

 

"Good morning everybody!

Here’s my summary for the last 48 hours (25-26 Mar 22).

 

CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)

CO – commanding officer

BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)

GMRD - Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)

GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)

GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)

GTR - Guards Tank Regiment (Russia

HQ - headquarters

IFV - infantry fighting vehicle

Keystone Cops - MOD in Moscow

LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)

MANPAD – man-protable air defence system

MBT - main battle tank

Mech - Mechanised Brigade (Ukraine)

MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade

MRD - Motorized Rifle Division

People in the Need of Fresh Air - Pentagon

PGM – precision guided munition

RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces

RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration

UAF – Ukrainian armed Forces

UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle

VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)

VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)

West OSK – Western Military District, RFA

 

STRATEGIC

The Keystone Cops in Moscow are in overdrive to inflate Ukrainian losses, the last two days. Not that the releases by the Ukrainian GenStab about Russian losses can be taken that much more seriously: by now it’s obvious this is superimposing only selected successes, zip-lip about own losses (I’m seriously concerned there will be a shock once these become known), and dishonest even in regards of several successful counterattacks. But, seriously: claiming the destruction of 190 Ukrainian aircraft and shot down of 36 Bayraktars, the way the Keystone Cops do…. that’s more than the UKAF had at the start of the war, and more TB.2s than Ukraine has acquired by now…

In reality, there are ever more reports about the cancellation of the spring demobilisation in Russia: usually, about a third of conscripts is ending its service on 1 April, every year. Think, this year this is unlikely to happen.

 

AIR

The VKS is now ‘regularly’ flying about 300 combat sorties a day, and that’s little surprising considering the situation on several frontlines: the West OSK is now obviously using its air power as a ‘fire brigade’.

That is: the VKS is active over the frontlines only, and nowhere to be seen anywhere deeper over Ukraine. Instead, the Russians hit the one of factories in Lviv with at least two cruise missiles, setting it on fire. They have targeted Vinnytsa with Kalibr cruise missiles, too: one of these was shot down, don’t know what was hit by the others.

 

NORTH

Ukrainians claim additional success north-west of Kyiv, but as mentioned before there’s not much evidence to see – which is no surprise considering the nature of their ‘hit-and-run’ operations there. They might have liberated the villages of Kukharska, outside Ivankiv (about 50km north-west of Kyiv), though. Heavy fighting is reported form Irpin and Hostomel, but no details have been released so far. What is confirmed as of this morning is that the Omega Battalion (foreign volunteers, including numerous ex-US Army SF-operators) has liberated Moshchun, 15km north of Kyiv.

That said, IMHO, this is all 'just a distraction' from dramatic developments in north-eastern and eastern Ukraine, though...

 

NORTH-EAST

The RFA has seized Slavutych, and the land connection between the local garrison and Chernihiv was cut off. Indeed, as of the morning of 26 Mar, the Russians have managed to put the last three roads out of Chernihiv towards south and south-west under their fire-control: means, this city is now effectively surrounded by the RFA.

That much about 'bad news' from this part of Ukraine, though. I cannot but scratch my head about reports and counter-reports about developments in the area further south-east, i.e. between Chernihiv, Sumy and Brovary (i.e. in the back of the 2nd GCAA’s positions vis-à-vis eastern Kyiv). Get yourself a map of that part of Ukraine, and then see this.

According to the Ukrainians, they have raided a Russian forward storage depot in Vyshneve, and then set it on fire, causing a conflagration that lasted for five hours. According to the Russians, they have captured the Ukrainian ammo depot in Ichnya, about 100km south-east of Chernihiv, and 40km north of Pryluky.

Hm… now pay attention: Ukrainian raid on Vyshneve… OK, making sense. But, Ichnya is on one of few east-west roads under the control of the 2nd GCAA: WTF were the Russians doing there the last four weeks… or what’s so important the Keystone Cops are NOW bragging with the capture of this place….?!?

….and that’s not to talk about reports on what’s going on in the Sumy area: reportedly, the Ukrainians are advancing in direction of their garrison ‘besieged by well-fortified enemy’ (see: something like 4-5 BTGs of the 1st GTA). But: from what direction? AFAIK, the battle for Okhtyrka is still in full swing, and the 1st GTA is holding Lebedyn under siege, too…. So, unless the Ukrainians found enough forces to attack from Romny along the H-07 highway in eastern direction….?

Really, not sure what’s going on there, but: if the Ukrainians are this deep inside the southern flank of the 2nd GCAA, then the entire Russian position between Nizhyn and Sumy is in the process of collapsing like a house of cards…

For all practical purposes, to me it looks like – ACTUALLY – the Russians have withdrawn, or are in the process of withdrawing, most of the 2nd GCAA from north-east Ukraine, and have re-shuffled it – or are in the process of re-shuffling it - to the area south of Kharkiv. I.e. that the Ukrainians are in the process of liberating everything from Brovary in the west, to Shostka in the north and Sumy in the east.

No doubt, this sounds crazy, at least like wishful thinking. But, it’s perfectly possible. After all, there’s no point in the RFA continuing to suffer losses while ‘trying to reach eastern Kyiv’, if it’s a proven fact it can’t reach eastern Kyiv. Better withdraw the (urgently necessary) troops and use them where it’s making sense: further south-east. In turn, this would mean the Ukrainians are on all-out advance in north-eastern part of their country, though – and the GenStabU in Kyiv is zip-lip about this fact, probably fearing this might lessen Western determination to continue supporting it.

….one way or the other: I feel confirmed in mistrusting all sorts of official releases. ‘Lies, until proven otherwise’.

Now, pay attention at the area further south-east. A possible confirmation for all of this is the fact that after 4-5 days of bitter fighting for Trostyanets, the Ukrainians seem to have brought in their 93rd Mech, and either completely smashed the Russians there, or that the latter simply withdrew. So much so, the Urainians claim the liberation of not only the completely ruined Trostyanets, but also the village of Boromlya, further west (near the Russian border).

Their photos are shown the area around the badly damaged railway station of Trostyanets, and a number of T-80 MBTs, MSTA-S and other armoured vehicles of either the 2nd GMRD (Tamanskaya) – all captured intact.

BTW, 'don't worry': the Russians have carefully demolished two hospitals in Trostyanets, too: one was demolished by the VKS, the other was heavily mined by their troops before withdrawal…

In turn, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have claimed the destruction of a ‘command centre’ by its Ka-52s, without naming the place: might be related to the loss of two Ukrainian commanders of volunteer units in the Kharkiv area: Georgy Tarasenko (CO Freikorps Battalion), and Sergey Yongolenko (CO Kharkiv-1 Battalion), both of whom were reported as KIA, yesterday.

Another thing that’s sure – and then a very important development – is that, after a break of several days, the Ukrainian 92nd Mech is on the move again (this unit has mauled an equivalent of a full mechanised division of the RFA over the last three weeks). As first, it kicked the 138th MRB out of the villages of Mala Rohan and Vilkhivka, east of Kharkiv, two days ago. Then it turned south and demolished the remnants of two Russian BTGs holding Husarivka. This morning, plenty of photos of burned-out BTR-82s and some T-72Bs are circling the social media: reportedly, the 92nd destroyed and/or captured more than 60 armoured vehicles.

Why is this important?

Remember my assessment that this war is going to be decided in the triangle Izium-Vuhledar-Zaporozhye – and the announcement by the Keystone Cops that, ‘after destroying the Ukrainian Armed Forces’, they’re going to re-focus on the LOC in eastern Ukraine?

Husarivka is only 15-20km west of Izium, and thus this ‘tactical counterattack’ of the 92nd Mech is having ‘operational-level’ importance: it is threatening the northern flank and even the rear of the Russian 144th MRD – and this precisely at the time this is eyebrows- if not hair-tips-deep into running an offensive across the Donets River, further south.

Namely, on 23-24 Mar, the 144th pushed south on either side of Izium. A BTG from the 3rd MRD circumnavigated this town from the west, constructed two pontoon bridges on the Siversky Donets (see the attached photo: the CO 45th Independent Engineering Brigade was KIA in the course of this operation), and attacked in direction of the Kamyanka Dam. Simultaneously, a BTG from the 59th GTR seems to have breached the Ukrainian frontline east of Izium: it blasted the village of Kamyanka with TOS-1s, took the same and is meanwhile pushing on Barvinkove. With other words: the 6th CAA is on the best way of surrounding elements of the Ukrainian 81st Brigade in the southern outskirts of the town – except the 92nd ruins its rear….

Obviously, the Ukrainians are meanwhile rushing… ‘significant reinforcements’ in this direction. Again, I’m sorry for I’m not going to go into details about any other of involved Ukrainian Army units, or those moving in this direction; just belittle releases by different of MODs of NATO-members and US think-tanks, according to which (quote), ‘there were no significant changes in the situation at the front’. On what planet are the people in question living, again….and about what war do they think they are reporting?!?

Overall, exactly as expected, the Russians have re-focused their attention. Now the imperative for the West OSK is to encircle the Ukrainian units on the LOC to Luhansk and Donbas. They have achieved a penetration of the Ukrainian frontline south of Denets, and the unsurprising result of all of this is a ‘meeting engagement’ - raging all the way from Andrivka in the north-west to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the south-east. IMHO, this is going to be the decisive battle of this war: either the Russians punch through and surround the Ukrainians, or they are going to suffer such losses that their sole solution will be… ‘Plan F: hold whatever of Ukraine you still can’, i.e. a strategic defensive.

 

EAST

Ukrainian units in the Severodonetsk area (AFAIK: Donbas Battalion, 79th and 111th Brigades; can mention these; the West OSK and the COs of the 20th and 8th CAA know them all too well by now) are now surrounded from three sides: by elements of the 3rd MRD of the 20th CAA from the west and north, and by Separatists controlled by the 8th CAA from the east. The city, plus Ribizhne, Lysychansk and Popasna nearby are all under continuous artillery barrages and air strikes. The Ukrainians there have little option but to hold to their positions and wait for the outcome of the battle in their rear (see: Izium area), and in the south (see: Horlivka area).

Namely, in the southern portion of the LOC, the Ukrainians seem to have withdrawn from Verkhnotoretske, and the Russians then attacked Novobakhmutivka and Panteleimonivka. With this, there’s no denial that the Ukrainian LOC was punctured in the Horlivka.

Should that butcher known as Lt. Gen Mizintsev (CO 8th CAA) now get distracted from massacring and/or deporting civilians in the Mariupol area for few minutes, and actually use some of his troops for serious fighting, he might want to reinforce this penetration and rush in direction of Kramatorsk from the south.

....I admit: this might sound like if I’m having fun, but this is dead serious. I do not expect a lot from a beast like Mizintsev, but there's no denial that his coordination of IRGC and Assadist troops, back in 2017, 'liberated' Aleppo - from its population. Instead, I am ‘professionally curious’ – to see if Kyiv still has reserves to patch up this part of the frontline, ‘too’. So far, the Ukrainian Army and its GenStab have surprised me – and the Russians – plenty of times. Perhaps they can manage it once again….?

 

SOUTH

In Mariupol, Mizintsev has deployed a fresh BTG of the 68th GTR to punch all the way to the Church of the Intercession. From there, this is attempting to link-up with Chechen and Rosgvardia units attacking through the Azovstal area from the east, so to cut the garrison into two (is a standard tactics for operations of this kind). That said, this seems to have been one of rare occasions at which the Russian artillery supported its troops: for nearly four weeks now, the defenders can’t stop wondering about the mass of enemy shells and rockets flying over their heads to hit apartment buildings behind them.

What am I rambling about, now? Although Mariupol is besieged since 1 March, hardly one of local military bases was hit from the air or shelled so far, and the four major Ukrainian units there – the Russians are assessing their strength at about 7,000 troops – have suffered relatively light losses so far (to quote one of contacts there: ‘dozens’). Their stockpiles of ammunition and supplies are all still largely intact. It is civilians that are suffering the most – because Mizintsev is obsessed with coercing the Ukrainian garrison into a surrender through mass-murder. The way he ‘liberated’ Aleppo – of most of its population… Unsurprisingly, what are about 100,000 civilians still inside Mariupol experiencing these days cannot be put into words. However, the garrison is perfectly intact, and – given it had eight years to prepare and stock supplies precisely for this battle – it’s going to hold out as long as it’s got enough water and ammo. And that is likely to be...‘long’.

In the Mykolaiv area….after blasting the HQ of the 49th CAA and killing its CO, Lt Gen Rezantsev, on 24 Mar, the Ukrainians launched another of their ‘hit-and-run’ infantry offensives. Contrary to the situation north-west of Kyiv, this operation seems to be highly successful, primarily because the 7th VDV Division holding Kherson is in tatters: late on 25, the Ukrainians have reached Tschornobajiwka, i.e. north-western outskirts of Kherson. Should the Ukrainians now manage to instigate an armed uprising inside the city….well, the Russian position there is precarious even without it: the local Rosgvardia is excelling at terrorising the population, disappearing the mayor, different politicans and journalists, and in looting, but is no replacement for the 7th Division’s lack of heavy weapons.

By best will, I do not understand why don’t the Russians withdraw from the western bank of the Dnepr River and convert Kherson into a ‘fortress’….? After all, that was exactly what the Keystone Cops were ‘demonstrating’ when showing a video of field fortifications being constructed there, few days ago…

[Pureblood]

I'm not reading all that shite.