Jump to content
Bjornebye

Wolves (A) Premier League - 15/3/21 - 20:00

Recommended Posts

Last year's fixture saw us come away from Molineux with a hard-fought 2-1 win. We'd taken an early lead when Hendo nodded in a Trent corner. The first half saw us largely in control although we did lose Sadio to injury after half an hour when he felt his hammy. The second half was a battle as Wolves came roaring back at us. Robbo had his hands full with Adama Traore's pace and Wolves fashioned a number of chances. They got a deserved equaliser when Jimenez got his head on the end of a great ball in following a well-worked move. It seemed as though we'd drop points for the first time since drawing at Old Trafford back in October 2019, but Bobby popped up with a late winner, curling a sumptuous left footer past Patricio after jinking his way beyond a couple of tired Wolves challenges. We were being asked questions before every game but Klopp and his mentality monsters were coming up with emphatic answers. Every. Single. Time.

 

In January 2011, King Kenny had taken charge after Hodgson was finally ditched by the owners who'd been lumbered with him following their takeover back in October. The club had needed a lift after a prolonged spell of poor performances and results (including Wolves winning 1-0 at Anfield the previous December), and Kenny was seen as the man to provide it. He'd been out of management for a decade and there was some justified questioning as to his suitability, and it took a few games for him to register his first win since returning to answer the club's SOS. It came with a comfortable 3-0 win with two Torres goals on the counter bookending a peach of a volley by Raul Meireles. That was a great goal.

 

 

Bruno Mars and his song 'Grenade' was number one in the charts in January 2011. It spent two weeks at the top. R&B pop of that type was hugely popular at the time. It's a very ordinary song by a very ordinary singer.

 

 

When I was looking at the list of Wolves-Liverpool PL games to select one for this post, all but one of them thus far had been played in January. That one game was in December 2018 (a 2-0 win for us) but we still ended up travelling to Molineux in January that season when we faced them in the FA Cup 3rd Round. Scheduling-wise, that makes this season's fixture a real anomaly.

 

We've done a lot better away from home in 2021, and if we can play what is our regular game with our regular tactics using players all playing in their regular positions, we can come away from this game with another 3 points. If our front line can learn to be ruthless and efficient with their making and taking of chances, that would be nice. Just get in and get the job done.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Away so that probably gives us more of a chance - although Wolves don't really do the massed defence everyone behind ball shite anyway do they....

 

Some confidence and belief should have returned and a monster in midfield should too, so a bit more hopeful than of late.

 

On the other hand these have been mostly shite this season - so....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, an tha said:

Away so that probably gives us more of a chance - although Wolves don't really do the massed defence everyone behind ball shite anyway do they....

 

Some confidence and belief should have returned and a monster in midfield should too, so a bit more hopeful than of late.

 

On the other hand these have been mostly shite this season - so....

I know you're saying "probably" and I don't want to get into that whole debate again about home form.

 

But you're basically suggesting the 'home' team, with literally NO supporters there, will play us as if there are supporters there.

 

Have you got any stats or facts to back this up? I'm genuinely curious, and open to changing my mind.

 

I just don't see what you're seeing. In fact, I see the exact opposite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, m0e said:

I know you're saying "probably" and I don't want to get into that whole debate again about home form.

 

But you're basically suggesting the 'home' team, with literally NO supporters there, will play us as if there are supporters there.

 

Have you got any stats or facts to back this up? I'm genuinely curious, and open to changing my mind.

 

I just don't see what you're seeing. In fact, I see the exact opposite.

It’s more than supporters that give a home advantage. It’s familiarity too, lack of travel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, m0e said:

I know you're saying "probably" and I don't want to get into that whole debate again about home form.

 

But you're basically suggesting the 'home' team, with literally NO supporters there, will play us as if there are supporters there.

 

Have you got any stats or facts to back this up? I'm genuinely curious, and open to changing my mind.

 

I just don't see what you're seeing. In fact, I see the exact opposite.

If you look at our recent form our only recent wins are away....

 

I still honestly think (and i too am open to being swayed on it though) that teams will play more openly against us on their own grounds than they tend to do at Anfield even in these sterile no fans times.

 

Players IMHO usually just have more confidence in familiar surroundings and there is an element of just playing on auto pilot in those surroundings even in this weird situation we are in.....it is built in. It is also why even now teams come to Anfield and defend with 10 men behind ball, because they expect us to come at them...it just so happens with us that this has become our kryptonite and the template for teams to use against us at Anfield. This is nothing new though, teams have been trying this for ages with or without fans at Anfield, we just got great and breaking them and their will down over last few years, but this season with all the many problems we have had that have destroyed our structure and style of play, we have lost what we had that made us succesful v these tactics.

 

We thrive on exploiting gaps and space and ability to get players into them and do damage and it is my view we get more of those things away from Anfield, as I say even in these shite, sterile times....and as a result we in my view are a bit more likely away right now.

 

I know we both got a bit daft at weekend over this (or associated subject) but i genuinely believe it and for me it is no accident our away form is slightly better than our home form in this dreadful run we have been on.

 

 

 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Reckoner said:

It’s more than supporters that give a home advantage. It’s familiarity too, lack of travel.

I've researched this a fair bit, and there is no evidence for what you're saying, as far as I can tell.

 

I'm looking at the stats, and I can see a clear correlation between pre and post covid away form.

 

Away wins are massively up (although these have generally come at the expense of draws, as home wins are only slightly down).

 

The sample size is across 300 games either side, so it's big enough now.

 

@an tha

 

Here's an article from ESPN that also brings in the psychology, and has several quotes from various professionals in the game:

 

https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4312130/premier-leagues-home-edge-has-gone-in-pandemic-era-the-impact-of-fan-less-games-in-england-and-europe

 

Below is an extract:

 

The resulting stats saw a drop in goals scored at home (from 1.5 to 1.4 pre- and post-lockdown) and an 18% increase in away goals after lockdown.

 

Away teams have also come away with better results: home wins have decreased by 2%, but away wins are 26% up from pre- to post-lockdown.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, m0e said:

I've researched this a fair bit, and there is no evidence for what you're saying, as far as I can tell.

 

I'm looking at the stats, and I can see a clear correlation between pre and post covid away form.

 

Away wins are massively up (although these have generally come at the expense of draws, as home wins are only slightly down).

 

The sample size is across 300 games either side, so it's big enough now.

 

@an tha

 

Here's an article from ESPN that also brings in the psychology, and has several quotes from various professionals in the game:

 

https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4312130/premier-leagues-home-edge-has-gone-in-pandemic-era-the-impact-of-fan-less-games-in-england-and-europe

 

Below is an extract:

 

The resulting stats saw a drop in goals scored at home (from 1.5 to 1.4 pre- and post-lockdown) and an 18% increase in away goals after lockdown.

 

Away teams have also come away with better results: home wins have decreased by 2%, but away wins are 26% up from pre- to post-lockdown.

This is another significant study done over 15 leagues.

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343591615_Home_Advantage_during_the_COVID-19_Pandemic_in_European_football

 

Abstract:

 

Using multi-level modelling we compared team performance and referee decisions pre-Covid (crowd present) and post-Covid (crowd absent) across 9,528 games from 15 leagues in 11 countries.

 

HA (goals scored and points gained) was significantly reduced post pandemic, which reflected the inferior performance of the home team.

 

In addition, referees awarded significantly fewer sanctions against the away teams, and home teams created significantly fewer attacking opportunities when they played without fans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like Occam's razor, I generally look for the simplest answer. Home teams generally win especially if they have large crowds roaring them one.

 

In the Premier League, home team fans outnumber away team fans in the stadium by at least 10 to 1. Example if you have a 35,000 crowd, about 3000 will be away fans. Bigger grounds like Anfield you have almost 50,000 of us versus 3500 visiting fans.

 

Being roared on (and down) by 50,000 people cannot be underestimated. When we went to Genoa for that first game back in Italy, the Genoa fans clapped us into the stadium! It was surreal, but I must admit, it gave me a lift. I can only imagine the lift it gives players when home fans are roaring you on.

 

In empty stadiums it just comes down to individual will to win.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, m0e said:

I've researched this a fair bit, and there is no evidence for what you're saying, as far as I can tell.

 

I'm looking at the stats, and I can see a clear correlation between pre and post covid away form.

 

Away wins are massively up (although these have generally come at the expense of draws, as home wins are only slightly down).

 

The sample size is across 300 games either side, so it's big enough now.

 

@an tha

 

Here's an article from ESPN that also brings in the psychology, and has several quotes from various professionals in the game:

 

https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4312130/premier-leagues-home-edge-has-gone-in-pandemic-era-the-impact-of-fan-less-games-in-england-and-europe

 

Below is an extract:

 

The resulting stats saw a drop in goals scored at home (from 1.5 to 1.4 pre- and post-lockdown) and an 18% increase in away goals after lockdown.

 

Away teams have also come away with better results: home wins have decreased by 2%, but away wins are 26% up from pre- to post-lockdown.

Well that’s interesting. I always just assumed that playing at home was an advantage because players know the pitch, have more confidence in familiar surroundings and have the crowd of course. Plus as I say the lack of travel, particularly if it’s very far away. 
As Stewart Lee might say, I’ve done no research. I’ll look at those links tomorrow but I’m not really a statistic man.

It’s interesting to see what teams are most affected when the fans are stripped away.

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are there more goals in general? 

 

My completely unscientific impression was that a lack of fans would benefit forwards (not ours it would appear) and be a negative for defenders (I wasn't really referring to sending all of ours to the glue factory). 

 

The lack of fans for forwards removes some pressure. Groans or sarcasm after another miss, or outright abuse from opposition fans (I realise for some players this actually inspires them). Whilst the lack of fans for defenders reduces their concentration a bit. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, magicrat said:

Is there a spread sheet I can look at to check these theories ?

There is the study I pasted the link to above. Didn't find any spreadsheets.

 

This is assuming you weren't being sarcastic.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, andyj said:

we will bounce back at some point and thrash someone so lets hope its wolves 

Yep. Any minute now...surely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dreamt last night that Fabinho had to come off after about 10 minutes and was replaced by Gary McAllister. 

 

He bossed the game to be fair.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

Absolute 100 percent must win. Nothing to do with top 4 but psychologically we can not drop points again straight after the optimism of Leipzeig.  

I've lost count of the number of "100% must wins" we've had over the past three months.

  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've always said the Leicester away boxing day game last season was when we knew the title was done and obviously Salahs second against the Mancs pretty much sealed it but the win away here from behind was fucking massive. We simply have to win tonight or 4th is fucking gone. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×