Summer 2021 transfer thread.

[3 Stacks]

1 hour ago, Remmie said:

I'm guessing you are cool with that? 

I mean whatever. We seem set on trusting Matip and Gomez again, so there's not actually much else to do. We aren't going to pay big money for a 4th centre back, that's pretty much been established when we didn't do so this summer and Kabak is a long term target who we can get on the relative cheap this summer if he shows himself to be half decent.

[El Rojo]

14 minutes ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

New market opened up in South America now we're out of the EU. 

You need a bit of that.

 

 

[Kevin D]

The headed clearance hits Coates's arm, rule it out, penalty for Fernandes.

[aRdja]

It’s difficult because on paper our squad seems good. 

 

Obviously we need to decide if Kabak is going to be good enough, but I’d bring a robust centre half in to replace Matip.

 

I want a striker too. Ideally someone with PL experience.

 

A right back. Someone who could properly challenge Trent for the position.

[Crazy Dave]

3 hours ago, aRdja said:

It’s difficult because on paper our squad seems good. 

 

Obviously we need to decide if Kabak is going to be good enough, but I’d bring a robust centre half in to replace Matip.

 

I want a striker too. Ideally someone with PL experience.

 

A right back. Someone who could properly challenge Trent for the position.

Would like to see Lamptey from Brighton. Great player. Would challenge Trent but also free him up to play in midfield too. 

[Crazy Dave]

4 hours ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

Not arsed about Upamecano, he'd have been big money in fee and wages, but he's not a patch on Virgil.  Konate is the better player at Leipzig, although I don't hold out hope of him either.  

Let's see what we've got on our hands with Kabak and take it from there. 

 

New market opened up in South America now we're out of the EU. 

Konate is class, but his injury record concerns me. 

[aRdja]

3 hours ago, Crazy Dave said:

Would like to see Lamptey from Brighton. Great player. Would challenge Trent but also free him up to play in midfield too. 

I like that idea. Lamptey looks very promising. Alternatively maybe someone like James Justin, some who could cover both full back positions quite comfortably. 

[Bjornebye]

Only sign people made out of metal from now on please. 

[Herp McDerp]

Knowing our luck they'd end up like this after tripping over theor shoelaces.

 

[El Dangerous]

We’d leave them out in the rain.

[Bobby Hundreds]

It's the problem with a small squad especially one with players who we know are injury prone. We've been forced to play players in positions they're not used too and for more games consecutively in a shorter space of time than usual resulting in the knock on effect of more injuries and intensifying the issue further. We rode into the storm knowing this but its also a reason for our previous success. Aside from top 4 I'm not too bothered about this season being a bit of a mess if we are fresh for next season. An amazing few years so far, its hard to feel too despondent except on matchdays when I invoke the law of kneejerk and emotional outbursts.

[Lee909]

Does anyone actually elieve these owners will splash the cash if we don't get top 4?

 

More chance they'll sell top earners and reinvest the cash on cheaper up and coming players

[Megadrive Man]

1 hour ago, Lee909 said:

Does anyone actually elieve these owners will splash the cash if we don't get top 4?

 

More chance they'll sell top earners and reinvest the cash on cheaper up and coming players

 

No chance. Even if we finish in the top four they won't. James Pearce and the like have already confirmed its going to be a small summer, and the likes of Jake Cain and Leighton Clarkson are going to save us millions.  

 

[Megadrive Man]

17 hours ago, aRdja said:

I like that idea. Lamptey looks very promising. Alternatively maybe someone like James Justin, some who could cover both full back positions quite comfortably. 

I don't think Lamptey would come here as a back up player. Part of the reason he moved to Brighton was to play week in week out. 

 

James Justin has been really good this season. He's just done his ACL though, so probably one to avoid!

[Red74]

It’s all going to depend on what Klopp decides to do.

 

If he’s thinking of giving us one more season then I don’t think they’ll give him a budget to buy the players who’ll get us back up there and he’ll see out the season as a swan song with these lads and unless we get a top name manager (cant think of any names other then Simeone cos I’ve got no clue who manages who now) then a lot of them will go with him to retirement homes abroad. 

 

He only signed that new contract last year because we couldn’t get players in and current ones to renew if he was gonna knock it on the head here.

 

Shows the pull of the man rather than the club and this lot need to step up and tell him they’ll back him completely if he’ll build us another team. 

 

We cant go back to thinking we can beat the system letting him go and bringing in an up and coming coach with a limited budget again can we?

[3 Stacks]

2 hours ago, Lee909 said:

Does anyone actually elieve these owners will splash the cash if we don't get top 4?

 

More chance they'll sell top earners and reinvest the cash on cheaper up and coming players

If we make decent money on sales. But also, most teams buy when they're desperate and at a low point, which we will be, so maybe.

[Lee909]

7 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

If we make decent money on sales. But also, most teams buy when they're desperate and at a low point, which we will be, so maybe.

I don't see it without sales. Only remember them doing it once without top 4. And doing it on the back of sales is obviously risky. 

 

Though without top 4 I can see a few. Mo, Mane being the main ones. Both might want out. Don't see Virgil or Alisson asking to go. 

 

Not saying it's a bad thing if they got in top players issue will be if they think they can do it on the cheap 

[Allan]

This will be a long read...

 

Complete hypothetical scenario here. Using the current first team squad as listed on the offal.

 

Let's fast forward to the summer and a worst case finish, so no Champions League, perhaps no European football at all.

 

All our loanees return, Kabak returns to Schalke, and everyone magically returns to full fitness giving us a complete first team squad of:

 

GK - Alisson, Adrian, Kelleher, Pitaluga, Karius, Grabara.

 

DF - Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson, Neco Williams, Joel Matip, Ben Davies, Kostas Tsimikas, Nat Phillips, Rhys Williams, van den Berg.

 

MF - Henderson, Fabinho, Milner, Thiago, Wijnaldum, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Keita, Jones, Shaqiri, Woodburn, Grujic.

 

FW - Salah, Mane, Firmino, Jota, Origi, Minamino, Wilson, Elliott, Awoniyi, Ojo.

 

Within this squad of players, Adrian and Wijnaldum have contracts that expire at the end of June 2021. There's an option of another year for Adrian, but let's assume that it is not picked up and he is allowed to leave on a free.

 

Gini also leaves on a free, as a deal for a new contract cannot be reached between both parties.

 

Of the returning loanees, I'd suggest that only van den Berg, Minamino & Elliott will remain in this first team squad, with the others being made available for transfer. 

 

Potential outgoing permanent transfers: Karius (£2m), Grabara (£2m), Grujic (£10m), Wilson (£10m), Awoniyi (£5m) & Ojo (£2m) - Values in brackets based on those currently provided on Transfermarkt.com, and my own thoughts on the reputation of each player and their respective depreciation between now and the end of the current season.

 

So if all 6 of the above do leave on permanent deals, then we could be looking at ~£30m in incoming transfer fees.

 

Our squad now looks like this:

 

GK - Alisson, Kelleher, Pitaluga.

 

DF - Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson, Neco Williams, Joel Matip, Ben Davies, Kostas Tsimikas, Nat Phillips, Rhys Williams, van den Berg.

 

MF - Henderson, Fabinho, Milner, Thiago, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Keita, Jones, Shaqiri, Woodburn.

 

FW - Salah, Mane, Firmino, Jota, Origi, Minamino, Elliott.

 

From this updated squad, I would suggest that Rhys Williams, Sepp van den Berg & Ben Woodburn would be allowed to leave on loan, so we're now down to this:

 

GK - Alisson, Kelleher, Pitaluga.

 

DF - Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson, Neco Williams, Joel Matip, Ben Davies, Kostas Tsimikas, Nat Phillips.

 

MF - Henderson, Fabinho, Milner, Thiago, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Keita, Jones, Shaqiri.

 

FW - Salah, Mane, Firmino, Jota, Origi, Minamino, Elliott.

 

From this squad, we know that we have players who can certainly be classed as injury prone: Matip, Keita, Oxlade-Chamberlain & Shaqiri.

 

5 of the outfield squad members will also be 30+ come the end of the summer transfer window: Matip (30), Van Dijk (30), Thiago (30), Henderson (31) & Milner (35).

 

Then of course we need to factor in the potential departure of fringe players, either because Klopp and his coaching team no longer believe they are first team standard, or if the players themselves ask to leave so that they have a better opportunity of playing first team football elsewhere.

 

Still, you need to have a buyer to take these players off our hands, which is something we'll have very little influence over.

 

I'm going to speculate that Nat Phillips (£1.5m), Shaqiri (£12m) and Origi (£10m) are the most likely departures - Values in brackets are based on those currently provided on Transfermarkt.com, and my own thoughts on the reputation of each player and their respective depreciation between now and the end of the current season.

 

If these 3 players were to leave, then we could be looking at ~£23m in incoming transfer fees.

 

Coupled with the earlier departures, our total incomings could be ~£50m +/-.

 

We now have a first team squad as follows:

 

GK - Alisson, Kelleher, Pitaluga. ( 3 )

 

DF - Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson, Neco Williams, Joel Matip, Ben Davies, Kostas Tsimikas. ( 8 )

 

MF - Henderson, Fabinho, Milner, Thiago, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Keita, Jones. ( 7 )

 

FW - Salah, Mane, Firmino, Jota, Minamino, Elliott. ( 6 )

 

That gives us a first team squad of 24 players. These 24 players would likely be supplemented by the following players from The Academy set-up: Jaros, Koumetio, Cain, Clarkson, Glatzel - Based purely on my own observations and opinion of where players sit in the youth teams.

 

All of these players are still eligible as Under 21s for squad registration purposes, as are Pitaluga, Neco Williams, Jones & Elliott from the first team squad.

 

As for the homegrown rule, we have 7 players eligible for home grown status from the squad of 24 - not including the U21 players.

 

Alternatively, that means we have 13 non-home grown players, again excluding the U21 players, which allows us a maximum of 4 over 21 non-home grown that can be added to our squad. We can have a maximum of 17 O21 non-home grown players in our Premier League squad.

 

Now that we've established all this information, I would suggest that our most important incoming transfers should be in the middle of the park. The options of incoming midfielders for me will be dictated by the approach that Klopp wants to take next season - Will he continue with the more recent controlled possession approach, or will he look to return to the more direct attacking approach that we seen when he first arrived?

 

If we continue with the controlled approach, I would like to see us go after a traditional number 10 type, like Coutinho or a player of a similar ilk. I would also want another striker if we continued with the controlled approach, someone who would occupy defenders and stay higher up the pitch than Bobby does currently.

 

If we opt for the more direct approach, then we'll need someone with strong running power who is adept at arriving late in the opposition box and be willing to go beyond the striker when they drop deep. This should be the role that Oxlade-Chamberlain or Keita should occupy, but they've both been somewhat injury prone, so for me, we need to look elsewhere for a more reliable solution.

 

Once the midfielder(s) have been sorted out, I'd then focus on another centre back and another striker.

 

Midfielders that we've been linked with over the course of the season include Renato Sanches (Lille), Yves Bissouma (Brighton), Rodrigo de Paul (Udinese) and most recently Florian Neuhaus (Gladbach).

 

I like what I see from Bissouma and think he can develop into a very good central midfielder, unfortunately he doesn't score many goals - This could obviously improve, but he doesn't strike me as a midfielder who'll bag you ~10 goals in all competitions during a season.

 

Neuhaus is the intriguing player for me. More of a goal threat than Bissouma and anyone else currently in our midfield. Would certainly not come cheap. I would suggest a fee of ~£40-45m would be needed to tempt Gladbach into selling, especially if they were to qualify for the Champions League next season. I think he'd get closer to 10 goals in a season than any midfielder we currently have on our books.

 

I've not seen enough of Sanches or de Paul to make an informed opinion on either player.

 

At centre back, I'm going to take the easy way out and suggest that we will take up the option to sign Kabak on a permanent deal from Schalke in the summer. Kabak again would qualify as an Under 21 player, so would not effect the non-home grown status. The option would be an initial £18m fee, with a potential £8.5m in add-ons on top.

 

I do also think that Kristoffer Ajer at Celtic could be a candidate for 3rd/4th choice centre half - He'd be available on a free in the summer too.

 

Now on to the striker. This is going to be a straight up personal choice - Wout Weghorst (Wolfsburg).

 

I want an option up front that we don't have, and haven't had since Crouchie. I want to see us sign an old fashioned target man type striker. Someone with technical ability and who will put in a shift too. That man is Wout Weghorst.

 

He's a goal scorer, he's a grafter, he's got good feet for a big man, and he's a proper threat in the air. Something we don't have outside van Dijk, and maybe Matip to a lesser degree.

 

Our fullbacks have some of the best delivery into the box from wide areas in all of World football, but there's rarely an aerial threat in the opposition box to really make the most of these crosses. He'd also add considerable height when defending set pieces in our own box.

 

Again, he wouldn't come cheap. He's a key player at Wolfsburg and scores the majority of their goals, which currently sees them sitting third in the Bundesliga, so qualification for the Champions League next season is certainly not out of the question. I would say ~£35m might tempt Wolfsburg to the negotiating table. The player himself as previously professed his love for us according to several online football sites - some more credible than others of course.

 

With these 3 incomings, our squad would be this:

 

GK - Alisson, Kelleher, Pitaluga. ( 3 )

 

DF - Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson, Neco Williams, Joel Matip, Ben Davies, Tsimikas, Kabak. ( 9 )

 

MF - Henderson, Fabinho, Milner, Thiago, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Keita, Jones, Neuhaus. ( 8 )

 

FW - Salah, Mane, Firmino, Jota, Minamino, Elliott, Weghorst. ( 7 )

 

We now have a squad of 27 players - 15 non-home grown, 7 home grown and 5 under 21.

 

Based on my estimated valuations, plus the agreed option fee for Kabak (inclusive of add-ons), our outgoings would be ~£105m +/-.

 

If we were able to recoup ~£50m as mentioned much earlier in this post, then net spend would be ~£55m.

 

Below are the figures for this current season provided by lfchistory.net and are inclusive of add-ons.

 

2020/21 outgoings - £85.75m

2020/21 incomings - £51.40m

2020/21 net - £34.35m

 

So we'd need an increase of ~£21m net spend based on my hypothetical valuations.

 

I know the players I would like to see come in are not going to get people on the edge of their seats, but I do believe that these signings, or similar, would bolster the squad and provide alternatives that we don't currently have, and have not had for some time.

 

If you've made it this far without falling asleep, then I obviously haven't done my job correctly and will need to add more waffle to any future posts of this type...

[Lee909]

Thats assuming you don't have Salah and Mane knocking on the door asking to leave without champions league football and having clubs pushing for them to kick up a stink to leave. Both at the age they are not going to want a year without it and both may see it as the perfect excuse for one last big move. Add that to owners who may well feel its the last chance to cash in 

[Allan]

2 minutes ago, Lee909 said:

Thats assuming you don't have Salah and Mane knocking on the door asking to leave without champions league football and having clubs pushing for them to kick up a stink to leave. Both at the age they are not going to want a year without it and both may see it as the perfect excuse for one last big move. Add that to owners who may well feel its the last chance to cash in 

Agree with what you're saying, however I don't see Mane or Salah as the type who would agitate for a move. I do genuinely (naively) believe that both players will be with us next season, regardless of where we finish this season.

 

I can't see either of their values dropping significantly enough to warrant the owners to try and engineer a sale. The image/standing of both players will be making the club a lot of money globally too, so they would not want to risk any potential shortfall by allowing either player to leave.

 

Both Mane and Salah have a far more significant image than Coutinho ever did, so if there was a deal to be done, then the fees would have to be sizeable in the extreme. I don't think there's a club in World football that would be willing to pony up what the owners would want in any hypothetical transfer, and I include PSG & Man City.

[Lee909]

I hope so

 

And weirdly for me as I'd rather be in Europe than not, if we don't finish top 4 I hope we miss Europe completely. Fuck playing Sunday and catch up each week. Fully fit squad and completely attack everything domestically 

[Ne Moe Imya]

2 hours ago, Dynamite said:

This will be a long read...

 

Complete hypothetical scenario here...

Good post.

 

I still think there's a decent chance we'll look to make a major move, sell one of the front three and bring in a big-money replacement, but with the pandemic changing everyone's finances I think this summer is a giant crapshoot so who knows?

 

The reason I think this is because I don't think there's any way that Edwards will want to be going into next summer with all three of our front players on the decline, both in terms of value and ability, all at the same time. Moving one of them on this summer (Salah, most likely?) would bring in 100m+ and allow us to get a player of similar potential who is much younger, which would give us flexibility to phase the other two out. I'm thinking Sancho would be the most likely choice, given Dortmund's finances looking even worse than ours.

 

But all of this is pure speculation, and you've done a good job of analysing the potential ins and outs if it's more of a tame summer.

[Chairman Meow]

On 12/02/2021 at 21:09, Doctor Troy said:

They just send some Bavarian heavies out in a BMW van to kidnap 3 players every season.

This is a completely ridiculous scenario.

 

BMW don't make vans. 

[Harry Squatter]

29 minutes ago, Chairman Meow said:

This is a completely ridiculous scenario.

 

BMW don't make vans. 

Bayern Munich secretly pay them to make them just for this purpose.

[Johnlj]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Troy said:

Bayern Munich secretly pay them to make them just for this purpose.

PS: Bayern have nothing to do with BMW. It's Audi only.