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US Election 2020 Thread

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Mitch McConnell opens up in the Senate, backs Trump based on previous Democratic issues over concession.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/us/politics/republicans-trump-concede-2020-election.html


Scott Hounsell of Red State goes into deeper analysis of voting irregularities.

 

https://redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/11/05/excuse-me-while-i-call-bs-n275572

 

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19 minutes ago, Barrington Womble said:

Arizona is getting closer - it's painful.he seems to knock off 5 or so thousand each time I check. 

Not changed much according to the BBC. Still leading by 12,828 but the vote count is now 99%. 

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From physicist and author Travis Shane Taylor:

 

 “In a sample space of 1 million marbles, 800,000 blue and 200,000 red the probability of drawing a blue marble is 80% the first time. To draw about 30 blue in a row is 0.124%. To draw 100 in a row is 0.0000000235%. To draw 250 in a row is more zeros to right of decimal point than stars in the universe!!!! To draw 138,000 blue marbles in a row is mathematically impossible within the age of the universe without human intent and interaction. In other words, cheating.”

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1 minute ago, Red Shift said:

From physicist and author Travis Shane Taylor:

 

 “In a sample space of 1 million marbles, 800,000 blue and 200,000 red the probability of drawing a blue marble is 80% the first time. To draw about 30 blue in a row is 0.124%. To draw 100 in a row is 0.0000000235%. To draw 250 in a row is more zeros to right of decimal point than stars in the universe!!!! To draw 138,000 blue marbles in a row is mathematically impossible within the age of the universe without human intent and interaction. In other words, cheating.”

Sorry mate but that's a crock of shit in the argument your trying to use it.

 

For weeks, Trump was urging his supporters to get out and vote in person and avoid postal voting. They did, while the vast majority Biden's voters chose to vote by post. 

 

C.mon man. It's hardly fucking rocket science.

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1 hour ago, Red Shift said:

Mitch McConnell opens up in the Senate, backs Trump based on previous Democratic issues over concession.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/us/politics/republicans-trump-concede-2020-election.html


Scott Hounsell of Red State goes into deeper analysis of voting irregularities.

 

https://redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/11/05/excuse-me-while-i-call-bs-n275572

 

Oh here comes the TLW Trump PR man.

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21 hours ago, RedKnight said:

 

 

Sky in the UK is now owned by Comcast, who also own Universal and NBC, Murdoch no longer owns it or has any input into Sky News.

Decent interview here with Rudd, outlines some of the issues with the malignant auld bastard.

https://pod.link/1522910878/episode/NWZhYzcwODMwOTc3ZjQxMDgzNDQ0NmU2

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8 hours ago, Red Shift said:

From physicist and author Travis Shane Taylor:

 

 “In a sample space of 1 million marbles, 800,000 blue and 200,000 red the probability of drawing a blue marble is 80% the first time. To draw about 30 blue in a row is 0.124%. To draw 100 in a row is 0.0000000235%. To draw 250 in a row is more zeros to right of decimal point than stars in the universe!!!! To draw 138,000 blue marbles in a row is mathematically impossible within the age of the universe without human intent and interaction. In other words, cheating.”

But it's not a random selection...

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8 hours ago, Red Shift said:

From physicist and author Travis Shane Taylor:

 

 To draw 138,000 blue marbles in a row is mathematically impossible within the age of the universe without human intent and interaction. In other words, cheating.”

Which there was an abundance of, you mega flid. 

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8 hours ago, Red Shift said:

From physicist and author Travis Shane Taylor:

 

 “In a sample space of 1 million marbles, 800,000 blue and 200,000 red the probability of drawing a blue marble is 80% the first time. To draw about 30 blue in a row is 0.124%. To draw 100 in a row is 0.0000000235%. To draw 250 in a row is more zeros to right of decimal point than stars in the universe!!!! To draw 138,000 blue marbles in a row is mathematically impossible within the age of the universe without human intent and interaction. In other words, cheating.”

This is shameful. Taylor must know he is attempting to mislead people by suggesting voting is a random process.

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12 hours ago, Barrington Womble said:

Arizona is getting closer - it's painful.he seems to knock off 5 or so thousand each time I check. 

Biden's leads shrinks slightly in both Arizona and Georgia since last updated yesterday.

 

Arizona lead is now 11.635

 

Georgia lead is now 14.057

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9 minutes ago, Dougie Do'ins said:

Biden's leads shrinks slightly in both Arizona and Georgia since last updated yesterday.

 

Arizona lead is now 11.635

 

Georgia lead is now 14.057

That's completely expected based on the votes that were left. That's why none of the big networks had projected.

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2 minutes ago, Brownie said:

That's completely expected based on the votes that were left. That's why none of the big networks had projected.

What's the reasoning behind this ??

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42 minutes ago, Dougie Do'ins said:

What's the reasoning behind this ??

Arizona appears to be the opposite of every other state, i.e. Republicans normally vote early and Democrats late, but this year this has changed. It appears the majority of remaining ballots are drop in, people went to polling station but rather than queue they dropped their ballot into a voting box or people who mailed later. As in other states people voting on the day tended to be Republican and I believe this is why these votes being counted are now favouring Trump. 

The consensus seems to be the lead will narrow but Biden will win.

 

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/pandemic-and-trumps-anti-mail-ballot-rhetoric-turned-conventional-wisdom-arizona-votes-upside-down/6193591002/

 

In typical years, the ballot-counting process is fairly predictable: Republicans vote heavily by early ballot and mail them in quickly, while Democrats vote later, dropping their early ballots at the polls or casting votes on Election Day.

But 2020 has turned much of that on its head, as Trump sowed doubt about the legitimacy of mail-in ballots and the coronavirus pandemic caused many voters — specifically many Democrats — to avoid large crowds at the polls on Election Day.

 

Democrats also feared the postal service could slow delivery of their early ballots and so the party and activists urged voters to quickly fill out and return their ballots. Republicans, meanwhile, tended to hold onto their ballots and either mailed them later or dropped them off just before Election Day. They also voted heavily at the polls.

 

 

That meant early ballots, which typically trend Republican, have this election instead skewed heavily toward Democrats. And ballots cast at the polls, which typically are strongly Democratic, this year broke hard for Republicans.

This changed the way Arizona and the nation perceived results from the race between Trump and Biden.

 

 

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/09/arizona-voting-results-bidens-lead-narrows-but-not-fast-enough-trump-prevail/6229592002/

 

Now, though, most early ballots have been counted. More than half the ballots that remain are provisional ballots, which are given to voters who can't verify their ID at the polls, those who received a mail-in ballot but decided to vote in person or those that voted in the wrong polling place if their county did not use voting centers.

 

The provisional votes that are counted tend to lean very Democratic. That could be different this year, as the normal partisan breakdown of how ballots are cast in Arizona has been turned on its head by the pandemic and Trump's baseless warnings of fraud in mail-in ballots. But those ballots are unlikely to come in 60% to 40% for Trump.

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2 minutes ago, Scooby Dudek said:

This is timestamped at 3:32 Am. Not seen anyone else calling it.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Dougie Do'ins said:

This is timestamped at 3:32 Am. Not seen anyone else calling it.

 

 

Reading the articles I posted and a few others, it seems the majority are basically going to wait until the lead is more than the votes outstanding, so as not to upset the base. Ultimately all these organisations are businesses and the bottom line is making money, so understandably they do not want to upset 71 million people when they know if they wait a few days (assuming logic triumphs) there will be less blow back on them. They have called Biden President-Elect so the rest is just noise, but it is Fox getting the stick because they called Arizona early.

 

Obviously, this is just my take on it. I also believe it is a reason why a lot of Republican senators have said nothing about Trump and the election. They don't want to upset the 71 million who voted Trump and not necessarily Republican.  Protecting your political career is more important than protecting democracy in your country.   

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8 minutes ago, Brownie said:

I think the networks are still being cautious and waiting until the lead is greater than the recount threshold for each state.

I get what you are saying and it makes sense. However, I think you can have a recount in any State but the difference being, over the threshold the people asking for it have to pay for it. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/25/jill-stein-election-recount-clinton-trump-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin

 

Stein, the Green party’s candidate in the presidential election, formally filed for a recount with Wisconsin authorities shortly before the state’s 5pm deadline on Friday. She also planned to request recounts in Michigan and Pennsylvania in the coming days.

Wisconsin’s election board agreed on Friday to the state wide recount. The process, including an examination by hand of the nearly 3 million ballots tabulated in the state, is expected to begin late next week after Stein’s campaign has paid the required fee, the Elections Commission said.

 

However, having read the entire article, I am none the wiser;

 

The fundraising site explained that Stein’s campaign “could not guarantee” any of these states would have a recount. “We can only pledge we will demand recounts in those states,” the site said.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Scooby Dudek said:

Reading the articles I posted and a few others, it seems the majority are basically going to wait until the lead is more than the votes outstanding, so as not to upset the base. Ultimately all these organisations are businesses and the bottom line is making money, so understandably they do not want to upset 71 million people when they know if they wait a few days (assuming logic triumphs) there will be less blow back on them. They have called Biden President-Elect so the rest is just noise, but it is Fox getting the stick because they called Arizona early.

 

Obviously, this is just my take on it. I also believe it is a reason why a lot of Republican senators have said nothing about Trump and the election. They don't want to upset the 71 million who voted Trump and not necessarily Republican.  Protecting your political career is more important than protecting democracy in your country.   

In a bizarre way the GOP rejection fits Biden’s agenda perfectly. There’s a very important election in Georgia early January. Winning that far exceeds the problems laid in front of them by Trump/McDonnell.

If they could brand the right wing GOP’s as irresponsible and working against the interest of America, that could well be what’s needed to win control of the senate. And the two GOP candidates are both extreme right wing Trumpists.

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33 minutes ago, JustTosh said:

In a bizarre way the GOP rejection fits Biden’s agenda perfectly. There’s a very important election in Georgia early January. Winning that far exceeds the problems laid in front of them by Trump/McDonnell.

If they could brand the right wing GOP’s as irresponsible and working against the interest of America, that could well be what’s needed to win control of the senate. And the two GOP candidates are both extreme right wing Trumpists.

 

 

Good point. 

 

Some observers also seem to think Biden has personal sway with about four or five Republican senators which could help him on certain votes.

 

Honestly don't know which way the GOP will go once Trump is gone. They're suckholes by nature, they do what they're paid for by big business, lobbyists etc so it stands to reason they'd be the types of people who someone like Trump and his family would be able to push around.

 

But from a practical point of view, surely populism isn't in their best interests. Why spend four years as mayor of Cuntville, Kansas only to see your shot at any top jobs being dashed by a used car salesman who's been on telly.

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18 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Good point. 

 

Some observers also seem to think Biden has personal sway with about four or five Republican senators which could help him on certain votes.

 

Honestly don't know which way the GOP will go once Trump is gone. They're suckholes by nature, they do what they're paid for by big business, lobbyists etc so it stands to reason they'd be the types of people who someone like Trump and his family would be able to push around.

 

But from a practical point of view, surely populism isn't in their best interests. Why spend four years as mayor of Cuntville, Kansas only to see your shot at any top jobs being dashed by a used car salesman who's been on telly.

I've never had very high regard for Moscow Mitch, but this exceeds my expectations. Disloyal and a coward yes, but not that stupid. When the spoilt baby leaves I guess it’s him who’ll be the top GOP. Why haven’t his advisors stopped him? He probably got rid of all his advisors and replaced them with yes men only looking for the right moment to wag their tales. Suits my agenda just fine.

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2 hours ago, JustTosh said:

There’s a very important election in Georgia early January. Winning that far exceeds the problems laid in front of them by Trump/McDonnell.

I've been thinking about the Georgia runoff since the election was called for Biden.

 

I know the deadline for voter registration is 7th December but does anyone wanting to register have to have lived in Georgia for a minimum amount of time before being eligible to vote.

 

It might sound extreme but what would stop people from fuck knows where obtaining an address within the state and registering to vote just to bolster their parties chances ?

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1 hour ago, Dougie Do'ins said:

I've been thinking about the Georgia runoff since the election was called for Biden.

 

I know the deadline for voter registration is 7th December but does anyone wanting to register have to have lived in Georgia for a minimum amount of time before being eligible to vote.

 

It might sound extreme but what would stop people from fuck knows where obtaining an address within the state and registering to vote just to bolster their parties chances ?

I think it is technically true, and the cutoff date is Dec 7 but the procedure to become a "legal" resident falls to each County and the timelines to process those are normally 30 days.

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