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Corona Virus Economic Impact

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I've seen everything from a recession to a great depression incoming. Just wondering how everyone is affected individually and what they expect to see in the next couple of years?

 

I have been relatively unaffected, the missus has been furloughed but she is finding it hard to spend money so its evened itself out for us. From speaking to my own customers (medium sized with anything from 50 to 500 employees) I'd say 90% of them expect to get through this daily ok.

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Trump and boris would love to just let everything get back to normal. You get it, tough. Stay at home and the rest keep working.

However, will there be a time when a decision along those lines will have to be made? Indefinite lock down can't continue forever or even beyond 6 months in my opinion.

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I’m very, very lucky to be in an industry that is needed more during times like this and can also work from home so income is unaffected for now but I don’t take that for granted. Just finding it difficult more as my kids’ mum is living here whilst this is going on to reduce the risks of swapping the kids  from house to house and sharing the childcare duties (our youngest lad has a few additional needs which means he needs pretty much constant monitoring). She’s also unaffected job wise so that takes some strain off but on a day to day basis it’s really tough.

We get on ‘ok’ but neither of us want to be together, just forced by the current situation. Put it this way, I sympathise with the guy who got done for being caught in his car 200 miles from home and his only defence was ‘I just had to getaway from it for a bit’



 

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Guest Pistonbroke

I've not given it much thought to be honest, just want all those I know and love to get through it. We're all going to be affected in one way or the other, and probably for years to come. As is the case in most things, there will be winners and losers, but we all need to pull together after this. Although I have a feeling we won't, things will just go back to normal, the better off telling the poor that we are all in this together, as humans we just never learn, far too many cunts in society. 

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I'd actually handed my notice in the week this all started to go really nuts and was going to go self employed. I'd had a bad health scare just before Christmas and decided to try it in a kind of 'you only live once' type situation.

 

A week later I had all the regular freelance work I'd built up pulled in the space of about five days.

 

My boss asked me to stay on and I bit his hand off. It's secure work but I don't enjoy it at all any more, but suspect any freelance plans I'd had will have to be shelved for at least a year, maybe longer.

 

Fuck knows where this is going. What the last month or so has proven is that money is man made, you can fund anything you want if the desire is there.

 

After the credit crunch they embarked on a propaganda exercise to make you believe it was actually your fault, that we'd 'lived beyond our means' and 'maxed out the credit card', they were able to underpin austerity on that.

 

I'd like to hope that won't wash this time. People know this is not their fault, it was an existential event and the last one resulted in the creation of the welfare state and NHS, the narrative had to be steered in that direction though, it's going to need strong voices.

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3 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

I'd actually handed my notice in the week this all started to go really nuts and was going to go self employed. I'd had a bad health scare just before Christmas and decided to try it in a kind of 'you only live once' type situation.

 

A week later I had all the regular freelance work I'd built up pulled in the space of about five days.

 

My boss asked me to stay on and I bit his hand off. It's secure work but I don't enjoy it at all any more, but suspect any freelance plans I'd had will have to be shelved for at least a year, maybe longer.

 

Fuck knows where this is going. What the last month or so has proven is that money is man made, you can fund anything you want if the desire is there.

 

After the credit crunch they embarked on a propaganda exercise to make you believe it was actually your fault, that we'd 'lived beyond our means' and 'maxed out the credit card', they were able to underpin austerity on that.

 

I'd like to hope that won't wash this time. People know this is not their fault, it was an existential event and the last one resulted in the creation of the welfare state and NHS, the narrative had to be steered in that direction though, it's going to need strong voices.

You'll get the dream back mate for sure. 

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When All This abates, people will want a return to 'normality'. Achieving it will be a triumph. I'll wager there'll be endless advocates for lasting change (environmentalists etc.), but they'll be drowned out by the overwhelming urge by the masses to get back to 'normal'.  Consumer spending could even see a mini-boom in early autumn as people come blinking into the post-covid sunlight and overcompensate by acting like sailors on shore leave.  

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Think we’ll have to down the Star Trek route of global economics in which money becomes obsolete and everyone just works for the greater good...

Its mentioned a few times especially in the Next Generation that the federation doesn’t seem to have money yet builds these amazing ships in fact you have Picard saying We’ve overcome hunger and greed, and we’re no longer interested in the accumulation of things.'” 

 

I guess someone was also thinking about it as they wrote a book about it a couple of years back,,,,,


https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Trekonomics.html?id=Lns3DwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y

 

Obviously to have any chance this is only realistically possible if the greedy and the powerful succumb to this virus

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Not sure, I suspect it'll be difficult and the construction industry will take some time to recover. We know that Universities have to massively reconsider their spending due to the impact this is going to have on student numbers, particularly international ones. As someone that designs University buildings that's clearly a very direct, immediate concern. Other sectors will probably do ok, there'll hopefully be a boom in hospital spending (hopefully because it's needed, not because I want to exploit it). 

 

One positive I hope comes out of this is that we all end up a little more altruistic, a little less focused on the bottom line, perhaps a bit more focused on creating cities and buildings for people and that have a positive impact on the environment. I hope we all realise how nice being outdoors can be without high levels of pollution and policy changes quickly to make infrastructure and buildings prioritise low carbon technology.

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8 hours ago, Section_31 said:

I'd actually handed my notice in the week this all started to go really nuts and was going to go self employed. I'd had a bad health scare just before Christmas and decided to try it in a kind of 'you only live once' type situation.

 

A week later I had all the regular freelance work I'd built up pulled in the space of about five days.

 

My boss asked me to stay on and I bit his hand off. It's secure work but I don't enjoy it at all any more, but suspect any freelance plans I'd had will have to be shelved for at least a year, maybe longer.

 

Fuck knows where this is going. What the last month or so has proven is that money is man made, you can fund anything you want if the desire is there.

 

After the credit crunch they embarked on a propaganda exercise to make you believe it was actually your fault, that we'd 'lived beyond our means' and 'maxed out the credit card', they were able to underpin austerity on that.

 

I'd like to hope that won't wash this time. People know this is not their fault, it was an existential event and the last one resulted in the creation of the welfare state and NHS, the narrative had to be steered in that direction though, it's going to need strong voices.

 

Sorry to hear about the health scare mate, hope you're doing alright. x

 

As for the final part - I feel they'll just brand it in a war-themed rhetoric. You can see it in the Queens speech, the PM's address to the public. "I believe, as we've shown in history, that we will rebuild this country and become stronger. I know the public will rise to this challenge of living on pot noodles in their castles of unemployment, debt and depression."

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11 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

Be interesting to see how many people are laid off after the virus. I doubt we will all be in it together then.

If you mean the dole queue then most will be.

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I think some big brands will go under, Lots of restaurants and cafes will close forever. High streets will take an age to get back to normal if they ever do. Some businesses will move to more home working as it’s been proved to work even in terrible circumstances. 
 

In my world we’ll lose a lot of smaller energy retailers, loads of redundancies in the larger businesses.  

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Cornwall is the poorest county in England, pretty much reliant on tourism, so this is effecting some people pretty badly. Once it is over I can see many Londoners re-evaluating their lives and looking to move to or buy second homes in the area. Positive for me but bad for many others.

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39 minutes ago, VladimirIlyich said:

I think there will be a short term boom because people haven't been able to spend for a while. After that it will probably be the bust part.

It’s possible, or they may hold onto their cash in case it happens again.  

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Myself and my wife work in aviation...  So that's a bit shit.

 

She was let go a few weeks back. 

 

I'm still in a job but the memos from HR have come out already about cost saving.  That was "Phase 1".  Phase 2 will follow soon enough and my hope is that it's just pay cuts. That'll give me more time.  But then Phase 3 will be job losses.  It'll take quite a while for aviation to recover too, so not great.  Having a 2 and 1 year old makes harder both from the lockdown element, to the cost of them while one is out of work, I'm teetering.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

It’s possible, or they may hold onto their cash in case it happens again.  

The rich may well do that but I think the average Joes will go on spending sprees in the shorter term. The time of year should help if we get back to normal during the Summer months and I feel the hotel and travel industry will benefit from this. Will this be enough to plug the gap from this lockdown? Maybe,maybe not.

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I'm in house building.

Staff have been all furloughed except heads of departments.

We've 5 sites still building, but all down south. Not sure what will happen when it comes back, but I can see a recession coming. (we're probably in it now)

Not sure how many of the 30 odd staff will come back, as there sure must be job losses.

This industry will take a long time to get back up to speed, and then it won't be a year or so before it gets back to anywhere near the level it was 6 months ago.

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I have spent the last 9 months back and forth to Ireland with my job, and Im lucky in that Im still working and still being paid, and ive had 4 weeks at home and not had to arse about with Ryanair. But the contract is up in June so I am a bit fearful for that.

 

My mrs works for herself, and her business just died in the space of 20 minutes, she got emails from her major suppliers at about 430 pm saying they were closing that day and wouldnt be shipping, so she couldnt order anything to be working on. A business she has built up over 20 years, she puts a brave face on it but I know she is gutted.

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31 minutes ago, VladimirIlyich said:

The rich may well do that but I think the average Joes will go on spending sprees in the shorter term. The time of year should help if we get back to normal during the Summer months and I feel the hotel and travel industry will benefit from this. Will this be enough to plug the gap from this lockdown? Maybe,maybe not.

Our economy is fuelled by confidence. If people, rich or poorer, feel they are secure in their jobs they will buy things, go on holiday, move house etc. If there is doubt the first thing is to stop all non essential purchases. 

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My partner has been furloughed from today until May. She’s still getting paid fully for now which is obviously a relief.

 

I have the ability to fully work from home; the work itself hasn’t changed (in fact it’s busier) but obviously the environment is different.

 

It’s difficult trying to balance work with home schooling to be honest but we’re in a better position than lots of other people so I’m thankful for that.

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I think things will change profoundly forever.  What was considered normal prior to coronavirus will never return. 

 

It doesn't bear thinking about, really.  The loss of life and the scale of what's happening is enough to take in for now. 

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Loads of small sectors of business are being affected , and certain ones will be very hard pushed to come out the other side. Two small items in the press caught my eye with readings that I never thought about.

 

Barbers - one of the boom products is clippers,  will people ever come back once they can get a reasonable cut in their own home.

 

Garden centres _ timing absolutely awful for them , everything is geared to their produce being ready around Easter. As an owner said , it's terrible for car sales but the cars are still there to sell in 6 months , we are binning our whole stock.

 

I'm sure there are loads of other examples.

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