Corona Virus Economic Impact

[Section_31]

1 hour ago, JohnnyH said:

Myself and my wife work in aviation...  So that's a bit shit.

 

She was let go a few weeks back. 

 

I'm still in a job but the memos from HR have come out already about cost saving.  That was "Phase 1".  Phase 2 will follow soon enough and my hope is that it's just pay cuts. That'll give me more time.  But then Phase 3 will be job losses.  It'll take quite a while for aviation to recover too, so not great.  Having a 2 and 1 year old makes harder both from the lockdown element, to the cost of them while one is out of work, I'm teetering.

 

 

The worry for me is that companies will use it as an excuse to lay people off and reduce existing pay and conditions. The cunts in HR - an unhealthy mix twixt Boots perfume counter and Waffen SS - will already be sharpening their swords.

 

They did it with our place after the credit crunch, laid everyone off then re-employed them again with different job titles as part of the company's response to these 'unprecedented economic  times'. 

 

One of the HR bods spilled the beans about how they strategise around it. They basically unleash a 'shock and awe' phase where they hammer people with worrying information over email and in staff meetings, then after the redundancies they gradually dial down the stress levels until you feel relieved that you're still there and will be satisfied with less. 

[Brownie]

My partner got an email saying that although she’s furloughed she can still “do training” so she’s been asked to prepare and deliver some.

 

Sneaky fuckers. The “do training” bit refers to staff receiving training, not giving it.

[Section_31]

Just now, Brownie said:

My partner got an email saying that although she’s furloughed she can still “do training” so she’s been asked to prepare and deliver some.

 

Sneaky fuckers. The “do training” bit refers to staff receiving training, not giving it.

She should contact the union mate, the government's furlough scheme explicitly prohibits people from working, otherwise the taxpayer is basically paying your wife to make the company money. 

[Jenson]

I'm in a bit of a double-edged sword situation. I work at Liverpool Uni on a fixed term research contract which runs out next January. I've been off work now since March 20th and although I'm still getting paid, the time I'm losing on my research has a very direct and detrimental effect on my chances of securing further funding for next year. If it was only a few weeks/couple of months that wouldn't be too bad but I can't see the universities opening again until the Autumn.

[Section_31]

Just now, Jenson said:

I'm in a bit of a double-edged sword situation. I work at Liverpool Uni on a fixed term research contract which runs out next January. I've been off work now since March 20th and although I'm still getting paid, the time I'm losing on my research has a very direct and detrimental effect on my chances of securing further funding for next year. If it was only a few weeks/couple of months that wouldn't be too bad but I can't see the universities opening again until the Autumn.

I've got a few mates working there, mainly in IT, I worry about the sector in general to be honest as it relies heavily on Chinese students, I imagine that ship has well and truly sailed now. 

[Brownie]

4 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

She should contact the union mate, the government's furlough scheme explicitly prohibits people from working, otherwise the taxpayer is basically paying your wife to make the company money. 

She replied and told them no, basically. They have no leg to stand on.

[sh#t waffle]

I'm a freelance copywriter, and the arse has fallen out of what I do. Basically the only work I have had over the last few weeks has, depressingly enough, been virus/death-related. I'm fortunate in that I have some savings, but times are going to get pretty tough if things don't improve soon.

[Section_31]

1 minute ago, Brownie said:

She replied and told them no, basically. They have no leg to stand on.

Superb 

[Brownie]

Horrible to hear some of the situations people are finding themselves in here, makes me feel a bit guilty that we’re relatively okay.
 

Hope everyone gets through this. :-(

[JohnnyH]

6 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

She should contact the union mate, the government's furlough scheme explicitly prohibits people from working, otherwise the taxpayer is basically paying your wife to make the company money. 

 

This is correct.  But also proving a huge issue in aviation. 

 

The vast majority of airlines aren't Virgin, or BA, with billions behind them.  They are small to medium size companies living hand to mouth as the fares demand to the cheapest price continues.  And so if pilots and cabin crew weren't put on unpaid leave, or furloughed, these smaller airlines would, without question, be bankrupt and so the jobs would be gone.  So most staff at airlines like the smaller ones are understanding of this, and hopeful that this will be short term and they'll be back working.  But to be a pilot you have re-currency training that's enshrined in law. For example, you must do a minimum of 3 take offs and landings every 90 days.  If you don't then you can't fly when aviation starts up again.  And that's a huge issue for these wetlease small airlines who, on day one of the restrictions being lifted, need to have all their 9 or 10 aircraft immediately flying, or they lose the contract.  So everyone is trying to find a way for these staff to do simulator training to stay current.  Literally everyone from the airline, to the pilot, to the Union, are trying to find a way to let them legally train while on furlough.  A weird, weird time...

[Mudface]

Bet this scenario is the highly optimistic one.

[Brownie]

1 minute ago, JohnnyH said:

 

This is correct.  But also proving a huge issue in aviation. 

 

The vast majority of airlines aren't Virgin, or BA, with billions behind them.  They are small to medium size companies living hand to mouth as the fares demand to the cheapest price continues.  And so if pilots and cabin crew weren't put on unpaid leave, or furloughed, these smaller airlines would, without question, be bankrupt and so the jobs would be gone.  So most staff at airlines like the smaller ones are understanding of this, and hopeful that this will be short term and they'll be back working.  But to be a pilot you have re-currency training that's enshrined in law. For example, you must do a minimum of 3 take offs and landings every 90 days.  If you don't then you can't fly when aviation starts up again.  And that's a huge issue for these wetlease small airlines who, on day one of the restrictions being lifted, need to have all their 9 or 10 aircraft immediately flying, or they lose the contract.  So everyone is trying to find a way for these staff to do simulator training to stay current.  Literally everyone from the airline, to the pilot, to the Union, are trying to find a way to let them legally train while on furlough.  A weird, weird time...

Training is allowed on furlough.

[elvis]

37 minutes ago, sir roger said:

Loads of small sectors of business are being affected , and certain ones will be very hard pushed to come out the other side. Two small items in the press caught my eye with readings that I never thought about.

 

Barbers - one of the boom products is clippers,  will people ever come back once they can get a reasonable cut in their own home.

 

Garden centres _ timing absolutely awful for them , everything is geared to their produce being ready around Easter. As an owner said , it's terrible for car sales but the cars are still there to sell in 6 months , we are binning our whole stock.

 

I'm sure there are loads of other examples.

Ha , I thought about asking my wife to trim my barnet . 

Then I took a look at all the dints on her car and thought fuck that I'd end up with no bleeding ears left 

[sir roger]

21 minutes ago, elvis said:

Ha , I thought about asking my wife to trim my barnet . 

Then I took a look at all the dints on her car and thought fuck that I'd end up with no bleeding ears left 

Got some clippers yesterday and the Mrs is going to have a go once they are charged and ready. She has watched a few YouTube videos and we have slightly different expectations. She is expecting me to emerge Clooney-esque , whereas I will settle for not looking simple.

[VladimirIlyich]

1 hour ago, A Red said:

Our economy is fuelled by confidence. If people, rich or poorer, feel they are secure in their jobs they will buy things, go on holiday, move house etc. If there is doubt the first thing is to stop all non essential purchases. 

If people get the wages they have been promised under the government scheme then maybe they will but a lot depends on whether or not this lot actually pay people as promised.

[No2]

1 hour ago, sir roger said:

Loads of small sectors of business are being affected , and certain ones will be very hard pushed to come out the other side. Two small items in the press caught my eye with readings that I never thought about.

 

Barbers - one of the boom products is clippers,  will people ever come back once they can get a reasonable cut in their own home.

 

Garden centres _ timing absolutely awful for them , everything is geared to their produce being ready around Easter. As an owner said , it's terrible for car sales but the cars are still there to sell in 6 months , we are binning our whole stock.

 

I'm sure there are loads of other examples.

I think your miles off here mate, haircuts in May will be what bogroll was in March. 

 

Garden centres should be ok too, literally millions of people who have never done gardening in their lives have picked up a new hobby. Timing is crucial though.

[VladimirIlyich]

5 minutes ago, sir roger said:

Got some clippers yesterday and the Mrs is going to have a go once they are charged and ready. She has watched a few YouTube videos and we have slightly different expectations. She is expecting me to emerge Clooney-esque , whereas I will settle for not looking simple.

I actually trimmed my wife's hair yesterday. I have always used clippers on my hair,at least for the last 20+ years.

[sir roger]

10 minutes ago, No2 said:

I think your miles off here mate, haircuts in May will be what bogroll was in March. 

 

Garden centres should be ok too, literally millions of people who have never done gardening in their lives have picked up a new hobby. Timing is crucial though.

Hope you are right , No2

 

Can only speak for myself,  if the wife does a decent job I wont be back to a barbers in a rush. 

I also think people are tidying up gardens , not necessarily planting much new stuff.

 

 

[JohnnyH]

1 hour ago, Brownie said:

Training is allowed on furlough.

Not in Scandinavia.  And lots of Irish carriers wetlease to Scandi countries.

 

But lots have basically been made temporarily redundant.  And that's also where the issue is coming up.

[Brownie]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyH said:

Not in Scandinavia.  And lots of Irish carriers wetlease to Scandi countries.

 

But lots have basically been made temporarily redundant.  And that's also where the issue is coming up.

Ah right okay mate, sounds complicated then as you suggested.

[Pureblood]

1 hour ago, JohnnyH said:

So everyone is trying to find a way for these staff to do simulator training to stay current.  Literally everyone from the airline, to the pilot, to the Union, are trying to find a way to let them legally train while on furlough. 

Have they not heard of Afterburner?

[Jairzinho]

26 minutes ago, sir roger said:

if the wife does a decent job I wont be back to a barbers in a rush. 

 

I also think people are tidying up gardens

 

 

You using the same clippers?

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Figures just released predict that the outbreak will add 2 million to the national unemployment figure and reduce GDP by approx 35%.

 

I just hope this doesn't lead to pressure from "business" to ease the social distancing measures. The economy can recover in time. Dead people can't. 

[JohnnyH]

23 minutes ago, Brownie said:

Ah right okay mate, sounds complicated then as you suggested.

It is.  But it's even seeing literally everyone trying to bypass it, but the legal wording is really strong so they're struggling.  The people who wrote it did a really god job, and now the same people are trying to work around it.  Strange times.

[Strontium]

I've heard that they expect 150,000 avoidable deaths due to longer term effects of the lockdown, which is obviously way more than will die from the virus itself. No doubt there will be much future debate about whether it was all worth it.