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Keir Starmer

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24 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

Again, I hope you're right and I'm an hysterical fanny, but people are spooked down here.

 

Can't really blame them after the last few years.

If you get that Curtice ghoul on with an urgent update, start worrying.

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1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

It's comparing this local election vs the last General election, not sure how much that matters but it might be a reason the results are skewed.

 

No idea why they'd change their minds anyway, they've spent the last 12 months kicking off about being over worked and underpaid, now they want to vote for the party that under pays them. Weird. 

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21 minutes ago, Aventus said:

It's comparing this local election vs the last General election, not sure how much that matters but it might be a reason the results are skewed.

 

No idea why they'd change their minds anyway, they've spent the last 12 months kicking off about being over worked and underpaid, now they want to vote for the party that under pays them. Weird. 

I know what it's compering and we need to pray the results are "skewed" because they are fucking shocking.

 

I agree with you it's weird and makes no sense but nhs workers are not the only group to hemorrhage votes away from Labour. Scotland was lost a decade or so ago, the working class and the north are on the brink of doing the same and Labours under 50s vote likewise. Very worrying, 

 

Better graph on healthworkers here, I've put this up elsewhere, I genuinely don't believe this poll, it boggles me

 

 

 

 

Edited by Gnasher

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I haven't dug into the stats, but with all of these results, I'd be interested to know how much of it is Labour voters voting Tory, Labour voters voting for other left-leaning parties, and Labour voters not voting at all.

 

I suppose, from a Labour supporters POV, a low turnout would be the most encouraging scenario.

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22 minutes ago, Jack the Sipper said:

I haven't dug into the stats, but with all of these results, I'd be interested to know how much of it is Labour voters voting Tory, Labour voters voting for other left-leaning parties, and Labour voters not voting at all.

 

I suppose, from a Labour supporters POV, a low turnout would be the most encouraging scenario.

 

My gut feeling is that labour used to be a broad church and that vote had fractured.

 

Some of the blue labour types who've been hoodwinked by Johnson will have gone Tory, while the Liberal types may have gone green or possibly lib dem.

 

The Tories have got total ownership of the right now as it's seen off all challengers there.

 

I think the old Labour vote is largely lost, Scotland is gone, the working class north has turned into some kind of trumpian nightmare. Maybe the only way Labour can win again is by becoming something similar to the Democrats in the States, a party for "everyone who doesn't like trump". 

 

I agree with people who think the flag shagging stuff was a mistep, as going full brexit would have been. Anyone who's remotely right wing instinctively knows the tories are their home, Labour will never be able to out "hang em and flog em" "we love the military" "we hate scroungers" or "England for the English" the tories, nor should it try. 

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26 minutes ago, Jack the Sipper said:

I haven't dug into the stats, but with all of these results, I'd be interested to know how much of it is Labour voters voting Tory, Labour voters voting for other left-leaning parties, and Labour voters not voting at all.

 

I suppose, from a Labour supporters POV, a low turnout would be the most encouraging scenario.

I'd imagine it'll sway from area to area, but what it *looks like* to me is that up until January the country were pretty much on board with Starmer and since then they've fucked him off. I don't know exactly what it is, it's not like he's changed tactics or suddenly become something he wasn't. I think part of the problem is he and Labour have done nothing much of anything since then. Not sure if there's a long term plan or what. This is just a waking nightmare. Labour and Starmer need to work out a way of turning the electorate on or Labour need to start the process of looking for somebody who can - because the Tories are a fucking nightmare. The idea that he's some mixture of an evil right winger and a useless clown is ridiculous. He does seem all a bit too John Major for some people though. When you have a buffoon at the wheel, bland seems great to me. Not so the rest of the country. 

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13 minutes ago, Numero said:

I'd imagine it'll sway from area to area, but what it *looks like* to me is that up until January the country were pretty much on board with Starmer and since then they've fucked him off. I don't know exactly what it is, it's not like he's changed tactics or suddenly become something he wasn't. I think part of the problem is he and Labour have done nothing much of anything since then. Not sure if there's a long term plan or what. This is just a waking nightmare. Labour and Starmer need to work out a way of turning the electorate on or Labour need to start the process of looking for somebody who can - because the Tories are a fucking nightmare. The idea that he's some mixture of an evil right winger and a useless clown is ridiculous. He does seem all a bit too John Major for some people though. When you have a buffoon at the wheel, bland seems great to me. Not so the rest of the country. 

 

The long term plan is complete reform of Westminster practice, not exactely a vote winner...

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The second Starmer went against the teachers unions was the moment he was utterly fucked with the left.

And look how that turned out with the unions fully vindicated.

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1 hour ago, Jack the Sipper said:

I haven't dug into the stats, but with all of these results, I'd be interested to know how much of it is Labour voters voting Tory, Labour voters voting for other left-leaning parties, and Labour voters not voting at all.

 

I suppose, from a Labour supporters POV, a low turnout would be the most encouraging scenario.

From the data I can gather its mainly Labour voters not bothering to vote and ukip/brexit voters naturally going to the Conservative candidate. Meanwhile both Wales and Scotland have in the main rejected the tory candidate.

 

If you crunch the figures and take into account the exceptional circumstances (pandemic, vaccination, lockdown easing etc) these results are not as disastrous as first thought, I'm not saying they're not bad but poll maestro John Curtis made some interesting points that if you put all the figures in the mixer it only gives the Tories a 6-7% poll lead, not great but far from insurmountable over the next few years. I'm not trying to make excuses or gloss over a bad night but if Starmer can learn the lessons and get Labour to unite ( he could look at Harold Wilson who managed to shoehorn Benn, Healey, Foot and Roy Jenkins in his team) the next election is not the forgone certainty it seems this morning.

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The worrying thing for a former DPP is that given two options he has a knack for going for the wrong one or avoiding a decision at all.

 

He is useful to the centre and ex-Blair people as he is doing all their dirty work in returning all of the party machinery back to them and then he will be cast aside for a real bad'un like Harman.

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6 minutes ago, sir roger said:

The worrying thing for a former DPP is that given two options he has a knack for going for the wrong one or avoiding a decision at all.

 

He is useful to the centre and ex-Blair people as he is doing all their dirty work in returning all of the party machinery back to them and then he will be cast aside for a real bad'un like Harman.

 

Evens is the head they'll call for and not Starmers, he's neck deep in some shady shit apparently.

 

If this happens then Starmer gets some good will and an uneasy truce can happen, especiallyy if he brings in some solid people in to shadow cabinet.

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Did the Lib Dems and Greens increase their overall vote? Be interesting to know if people on the left are voting for other parties or simply not being inspired enough to go and vote? 

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Just now, Jairzinho said:

Did the Lib Dems and Greens increase their overall vote? Be interesting to know if people on the left are voting for other parties or simply not being inspired enough to go and vote? 

 

Greens have done really well, relatively.

 

Lib Dems, not so much...

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52 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

 

My gut feeling is that labour used to be a broad church and that vote had fractured.

 

Some of the blue labour types who've been hoodwinked by Johnson will have gone Tory, while the Liberal types may have gone green or possibly lib dem.

 

The Tories have got total ownership of the right now as it's seen off all challengers there.

 

I think the old Labour vote is largely lost, Scotland is gone, the working class north has turned into some kind of trumpian nightmare. Maybe the only way Labour can win again is by becoming something similar to the Democrats in the States, a party for "everyone who doesn't like trump". 

 

I agree with people who think the flag shagging stuff was a mistep, as going full brexit would have been. Anyone who's remotely right wing instinctively knows the tories are their home, Labour will never be able to out "hang em and flog em" "we love the military" "we hate scroungers" or "England for the English" the tories, nor should it try. 

I’ve been saying for a while that the last 10-15 years have seen a new political axis emerge - where we used to have just left and right (tax and spend vs small state), and the only way to grab more votes was a move to the centre, we’re now seeing the importance of a ‘social progression’ axis: sort of a BLM vs sink the boats. Brexit was the catalyst for bringing those issues onto equal - if not greater - footing with the traditional economic divide. Probably why the Tories were so keen for bipartisan support.

 

Without turning this into an essay, we’ve now got four quadrants instead of two ends, roughly (and I mean roughly) split into the following:

  • Left wing (Labour), socially progressive (Remain)
  • Left wing (Labour), socially conservative (Leave)
  • Right wing (Tory), socially progressive (Remain)
  • Right wing (Tory), socially conservative (Leave)

Where the Tories have been so canny is as you say - they’ve managed to corner the “hang em high and sink the boats” side of that argument, as well as retaining everything on the traditional right, because they tailor the message according to the audience’s values. So there’ll no doubt be “hug a hoodie” type Tories who are appalled with the presence of headbangers like Priti Patel, but the economic arguments the Tories make will guarantee their loyalty. Equally there are traditional Labour voters they’ve won over by emphasising Brexit and immigration, and getting round any remaining economic argument with their “Build Back Better” and “Levelling Up” platitudes.

 

Essentially Labour’s traditional base has been less loyal and more susceptible to the culture war than the Tory base. I’ve zero idea how to get round it, either - the only solution seems to be to brand themselves as “Not Tories” as per the Democrats in America, but the European left is much more idealist than the American one.

 

Also the simple fact is that the Tories are strong at the moment because the country is on an upward curve. Johnson is right to a point about the corruption stuff: it matters, but people are more arsed about being able to hug their families soon than that. Doesn’t mean it won’t be important in the future, but it does mean the sleaze stuff has come out at a convenient time for the cunts.

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2 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

Did the Lib Dems and Greens increase their overall vote? Be interesting to know if people on the left are voting for other parties or simply not being inspired enough to go and vote? 

Yes I believe both increased their vote massively in certain pockets of the country (mainly away from labour) whilst hardly budging or in some cases falling in others,the lib dems getting trounced in Hartlepool but making good council gains elsewhere being an example. 

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I think Labour really need to focus on the single issue of Tory corruption/tax avoidance and talk exclusively about that. Bring every issue back to Tory corruption/tax avoidance.

 

Corbyns' when they go low, we go high strategy was terrible in every way and Starmers seems to be I will dissect every issue really precisely. Both strategies are sound and potentially should work, but we have seen the voters/media don't want this, just a 10 second Captain Hindsight clip which is great. 

 

Three word slogans and Tory corruption/tax avoidance is the way forward for me. 

 

Patriotic ? Pay your fucking fair share of tax and give money to our soldiers, not your mates. 

Love the NHS, pay your fair share of tax to fund it. 

Hard working tax payers ? Don't give tax to your mates.

Lobbying ex Ministers looking for tax handouts

People pushing through deals to save their mates millions in taxes. 

 

Every single issue, irrespective of the question should end up with Labour slamming the Tories over this. 

 

If people care about paying less tax, how about we get everyone to pay their fair share, then once we get it we don't hand out billions to mates or mistresses of the PM. That way we could lower tax rate for the majority of people. I am sure the Tax payers alliance would jump behind Labour *

 

 

 

* I know, but when they don't you could call them out for the Tory cunts that they are. 

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Another point that may be being missed regarding Mark Drakeford and Labours position as a whole, Drakefords a no nonsense political leader and he and his policies are popular, I know I live there but he is the sitting premier during a pandemic, same as Johnson and Sturgeon. These are exceptional times, not making excuses for Englands Labour or Starmer but these results can be turned round.

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1 hour ago, Scooby Dudek said:

Corbyns' when they go low, we go high strategy was terrible in every way

I did howl at the telly in the General Election leaders' debate when Corbyn was handed a weapon to batter the fat sack of shit with - a question about whether politicians should be punished for lying - and he wimped out and said he expected that they would be punished by the electorate (something which, the last few years have made blindingly clear never, ever happens).

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