Keir Starmer

[cloggypop]

@BritainElects: Westminster voting intention:

CON: 39% (-4)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 6% (+2)

via @Survation, 27 - 29 Apr
Chgs. w/ 10 Apr

[Captain Turdseye]

15 minutes ago, Rushies tash said:

This is why I have massive respect for your resilience and willingness to actually go out and campaign mate. Labour have had the weight of the popular media against them for years and don't stand a chance until it is deemed "their turn". Usually to pay off the debt run up by the Tories. I'll vote for them, but everything else I can't be arsed with.

I only do it so that when I sit down my Fitbit tells me I’ve been a good boy. 
 

I only got active because our boy, who’s now 17, had thought of going into politics later on in his life. Brainy bastard, he is. He came to to a couple of hustings and quiz nights and stuff but he’s pretty much fucked it off now and left me embedded into this tiny branch. I don’t think he’d want any people from his school spotting him posting leaflets. You know what kids are like. 

[KMD7]

47 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

 

Turdseye for PM

[Gnasher]

8 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

 

That's better. Wouldn't be surprised if that's the more accurate poll of the bunch.

[Vincent Vega]

I’m convinced most of these polls are more about influencing people’s opinions than representing people’s opinions. I don’t actually know anyone who has been randomly approached for their opinions by a pollster, and if the polls are just from a section of people who are already signed up with the polling company, I don’t see that as a random selection of the public.

[Bruce Spanner]

1 minute ago, Vincent Vega said:

I’m convinced most of these polls are more about influencing people’s opinions than representing people’s opinions. I don’t actually know anyone who has been randomly approached for their opinions by a pollster, and if the polls are just from a section of people who are already signed up with the polling company, I don’t see that as a random selection of the public.

 

Nadhim Zahawi, current vaccine minister, is the cofounder of YouGov, so I assume there'll be some nefarious shit going on with them.

[Vincent Vega]

6 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

Nadhim Zahawi, current vaccine minister, is the cofounder of YouGov, so I assume there'll be some nefarious shit going on with them.

Yeah I was signed up with them to complete polls after Remmie on here said it was an easy way to earn £50 (it wasn’t, it must have taken about 12 months of completing pointless polls that took about 20 minutes to finally get the money), and they stopped sending me political polls to complete when I kept putting down that my vote would be for Labour. Maybe they didn’t like my answers?

[Anubis]

YouGov are shite and always have been.

[Vincent Vega]

28 minutes ago, Anubis said:

YouGov are shite and always have been.

They never even sent any interesting polls like favourite crisps flavour, or beans on a fry-up. The polls on here have far more value to humanity, and we don’t even have political donors seeking to influence everything. 

[Mudface]

21 minutes ago, Vincent Vega said:

They never even sent any interesting polls like favourite crisps flavour, or beans on a fry-up. The polls on here have far more value to humanity, and we don’t even have political donors seeking to influence everything. 

Haha, I did the same a while back and yeah, it took forever to get the £50- the hourly rate on that must have been less than a quid, the amount of time it ended up taking. I don't even remember getting a 'who would you vote for' poll, although I did lie randomly on various surveys to amuse myself.

[RedKnight]

1 hour ago, Vincent Vega said:

Yeah I was signed up with them to complete polls after Remmie on here said it was an easy way to earn £50 (it wasn’t, it must have taken about 12 months of completing pointless polls that took about 20 minutes to finally get the money), and they stopped sending me political polls to complete when I kept putting down that my vote would be for Labour. Maybe they didn’t like my answers?

Agree that it can take a while to get the £50 but I frequently get political polls and always put my voting intention as Labour with an absolute certainty to vote.

[RedKnight]

I had to sit through a pilot for a TV show called 'Rat in the Kitchen' with Mel Giedroyc presenting on YouGov. The premise was a bunch of amateur cooks compete to make the best meal but one is working against the others to actively sabotage them but they can't reveal who they are. They also had a celebrity chef who would commentate on what was happening with Mel.

 

It was shit.

[Jairzinho]

10 minutes ago, RedKnight said:

I had to sit through a pilot for a TV show called 'Rat in the Kitchen' with Mel Giedroyc presenting on YouGov. The premise was a bunch of amateur cooks compete to make the best meal but one is working against the others to actively sabotage them but they can't reveal who they are. They also had a celebrity chef who would commentate on what was happening with Mel.

 

It was shit.

I don't think we can pin this on Keir. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

13 hours ago, Rico1304 said:

 

Okay, so now that the gaps closed again are we al in agreement that it's *because* Labour kept their head down, just as the reason for the gap was *because* they kept their head down? Maybe we should all stop projecting what we thing should happen as the reason for fluctuating bullshit polls... I'm certainly going to try harder at avoiding it. At this point, I have very little faith that Labour are going to be able to win a toy at a coconut shy, let alone an election against the snakes in the Tory party.

[Numero Veinticinco]

1 hour ago, Jairzinho said:

I don't think we can pin this on Keir. 

Weak. Try harder. I believe in you. 

 

Fucking Starmer. 

[Captain Howdy]

3 hours ago, Jairzinho said:

I don't think we can pin this on Keir. 

Gnasher says hold my pint.

[Gnasher]

6 hours ago, Captain Howdy said:

Gnasher says hold my pint.

I'm not against Starmer. I believe he's the only man to lead the party to election victory although the alternatives are fucking dire. I dont think he's done that much wrong in dealing with the media, dealing with the tories, dealing with the general public. He's smart, comes across well and is not prone to many disastrous brain farts.

 

I just find his needless war against Corbs and anyone on the left a bit bizzare, needless and counteractive. A report suggests Labours under 50s support has plummeted from +26 to +2 in the past five or so months. Very worrying.

[Gnasher]

 

Fuck Bitcoin. Get on Labour to win Hartlepool 13/8. Like finding money in the street.

[Bruce Spanner]

HART IN YOUR MOUTH: A bombshell poll has dropped in the last few minutes appearing to put the Conservatives on course for what would be a genuinely remarkable victory in the Hartlepool by-election on Thursday. According to Survation for ITV’s Good Morning Britain, the Tories have a thumping 17-point lead over Labour in the seat. There are just 48 hours to go until polling day and these numbers will go some way to detonate carefully crafted Tory attempts at expectation management — although Boris Johnson and other senior Tories were last night still downplaying their party’s chances of pulling off a win, with the prime minister insisting it would be “extraordinary” for the town to turn blue.

 

The numbers: Jill Mortimer, Conservative: 50 percent … Paul Williams, Labour: 33 percent … Thelma Walker, Independent: 6 percent … Sam Lee, Independent: 6 percent … Rachel Featherstone, Greens: 3 percent … Andrew Hagon, Liberal Democrats: 1 percent … John Prescott, Reform U.K.: 1 percent.

 

Favorability ratings: Among the Hartlepool voters polled, 51 percent viewed Boris Johnson favorably and 28 percent unfavorably, giving him a net favorability rating of +23. Labour leader Keir Starmer had a net rating of -18. Johnson was backed as the best prime minister by 56 percent of Hartlepool voters, 37 points ahead of Starmer on 19 percent.

 

If it’s true … These are obviously extremely punchy numbers and if they were replicated on Thursday you’d imagine it would have a major impact on the Westminster narrative and pile pressure on Starmer’s leadership. Survation has gone all-in as the pollster willing to boldly call Hartlepool as a huge win for the Tories, so it’s kinda make or break for them too.

 

Bucket of salt: It’s inevitable that these figures will wind up Twitter and set the agenda for the by-election from now on, but it’s worth treating this all with a healthy dose of caution. Senior Tories last night heavily downplayed the poll and privately insisted it is inaccurate. They pointed to Survation’s sample size of just 301 for those headline numbers, which leaves a significant margin of error. Expect other pollsters to come out and tweet their skepticism this morning. It’s also probably worth stressing that by-elections are notoriously difficult to poll — and quite possibly even more so in COVID times.

 

Going soft: A Cabinet minister who has campaigned in the seat told Playbook last night they did not recognize that level of Tory lead, claiming their view from the ground is that the seat is “in the balance.” A second Cabinet minister however said he thought the Labour vote was “very soft,” its candidate was “disliked,” and the Tory machine was “good and well targeted.”

 

Worth noting: The fieldwork for Survation’s poll took place between April 23-29, so mostly before Wallpapergate properly blew up, meaning it may not take into account any narrowing of the Tory lead that we have seen with other pollsters since. The Times’Steve Swinford quotes a Cabinet minister saying the “cash for curtains” row is a “concern” ahead of Thursday’s elections. Redfield and Wilton Strategieshad a Westminster voting intention poll out on Monday evening showing the Tory lead nationally at just 2 points, down 8. But POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, which aggregates data from multiple sources to give a more accurate picture, has the Tories on 41, while Labour is on 36.

 

Spin when you’re winning: Johnson himself was determined to set expectations way lower last night. The PM and Home Secretary Priti Patel held a call with Tory activists in which Johnson pleaded: “I want to stress that a lot of people are talking about Hartlepool — I have just been there. I think it’s important for people to understand this is not a seat that Conservatives have ever held. This is the stamping ground of Peter Mandelson. It’s very important for everybody to be aware of the deep psephological reality, it’s a massive, massive challenge, it would be a quite extraordinary thing in my view if that were to happen — but that doesn’t mean that we’re not fighting for every single vote.”

Why it would be extraordinary: This might be spin but he also has a point — Hartlepool has always been Labour since the seat was formed in 1974, and the party has traditionally held it pretty comfortably with an average majority of 7,205. For it to flip in a mid-term election after what has been a very bumpy few weeks for Johnson would be, for want of a better word, extraordinary.

 

But not that extraordinary: It should be said that Johnson has visited Hartlepool three times during this by-election campaign, so it’s clearly the case that for all the above, the Tories believe a win is doable.

[Numero Veinticinco]

70% of Hartlepool voted Brexit. I wonder how many are as easily convinced that the government has been great on Covid and how many have received ‘free’ money. It’ll be very bad news for Starmer this. 

[Bruce Spanner]

20 minutes ago, Numero said:

70% of Hartlepool voted Brexit. I wonder how many are as easily convinced that the government has been great on Covid and how many have received ‘free’ money. It’ll be very bad news for Starmer this. 

Yup, 10000  people voted for the Brexit Party and these are the great unknown. 
 

As an aside from the same polls 56% had Johnson as the best Prime Minster, Starmer polls 19%! So in bizzaro world Blighty I don’t have a fucking clue anymore.

 

FWIW I think Labour will scrape through, but it can’t be claimed as a victory, just a massive learning curve.

[Gnasher]

10 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

Fuck Bitcoin. Get on Labour to win Hartlepool 13/8. Like finding money in the street.

Or after Spanners post above, might be easier to find a monkey in the street.

[Moo]

A lot of polling recently, since at least 2016, seems to be geared towards reinforcing voter apathy, tell voters it's done so don't bother going out to vote.  It's probably the same with this Hartlepool one but if it works, job done again for the Tories.

[Anubis]

Posted elsewhere that Johnson was on the Hartlepool seafront campaigning and they ere coming up to him for selfies and elbow bumps. a lot of people in this country just want to doff. We are a nation of natural doffers. I'm really beginning to despise other areas of the country. More than I normally do.

[Bjornebye]

11 minutes ago, Anubis said:

Posted elsewhere that Johnson was on the Hartlepool seafront campaigning and they ere coming up to him for selfies and elbow bumps. a lot of people in this country just want to doff. We are a nation of natural doffers. I'm really beginning to despise other areas of the country. More than I normally do.

Yeah the "get em out" brigade don't give a fuck about Tory Sleaze/lies/greed provided they don't have to see anyone wearing a hijab down the local shops.