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Keir Starmer


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29 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

Good to see that Gnasher has identified the really big story in Hartlepool, which is the Lib Dem vote dropping from 4.1% last time to probably half of that now.

Hmmm? or as Pickard points out 30% to 1% in twelve years. 

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Brexit Bozza was always going to beat Remainer Starmer. I think people underestimate how much Brexiteers despise Starmer, which means he has almost no chance of taking back the red wall seats. 

 

Part of the success of Corbyn in 2017 was that he was viewed as a Euro sceptic, against clear remainer May. 

 

The interesting thing is that it appears that the Tories have had enough of Johnson, yet he is going to be difficult to shift if they keep gaining seats and he stays popular in the polls.

 

If must be fucking infuriating for Starmer being beaten by this incompetent buffoon. 

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21 minutes ago, MegadriveMan said:

Brexit Bozza was always going to beat Remainer Starmer. I think people underestimate how much Brexiteers despise Starmer, which means he has almost no chance of taking back the red wall seats. 

 

Part of the success of Corbyn in 2017 was that he was viewed as a Euro sceptic, against clear remainer May. 

 

The interesting thing is that it appears that the Tories have had enough of Johnson, yet he is going to be difficult to shift if they keep gaining seats and he stays popular in the polls.

 

If must be fucking infuriating for Starmer being beaten by this incompetent buffoon. 

Dunno about the Corbyn brexiteer appeal, I see Corbyn, Brexit and Johnson as all having fundamentally the same appeal, that they're outsiders and something the establishment is perceived to be against.

 

Problem for Corbyn is that the world moved so fast he was very quickly no longer a novelty. 

 

If you had Starmer vs May now you'd have something resembling old fashioned traditional politics, Johnson is still perceived as the loose cannon, a wrecking ball just like brext was, and it's for that reason he appeals to people who are angry, even if they don't always know why.

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5 hours ago, Anubis said:


They love monkeys, now that they know they are monkeys and not French sailors.

Someone should've went there are started a whispering rumour Boris Johnson has really got a funny french sounding name which means he's probably a french spy.

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I have few words...

 

'Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear a historic Conservative victory.

 

Labour insiders said polling from its ground campaign in the town showed only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.

 

Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.

 

Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local and devolved parliament elections since 1973.'

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labour-heading-for-defeat-in-hartlepool-byelection

 

We'll have to wait and see and hope this is a 'get 'em out and voting' push, but not sounding good.

 

 

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58 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

I have few words...

 

We'll have to wait and see and hope this is a 'get 'em out and voting' push, but not sounding good.

 

 

I don't think telling half of your researchers and election staff that they are being made redundant after the election will push them to excel.

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3 hours ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

Yep, incedibly poor timing, but the finances are shot

Yes , the Guardian saying that the exodus and expulsions of the left have lost a lot of subs income and Corbyn's influx of small donations , but so far Starmer hasn't been able to replace these with significant large donations like Blair managed. Double whammy.

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9 minutes ago, Numero said:

Agreed. Where the fuck do we go from here? As it stands, there seems to be a free run for the Bullingdon boys. 

They are caught between a rock and a hard place, if they become more propositional and social democratic the press will annihilate them as we saw with Corbyn, if the do the roll-up-in-a-ball technocrats bit they start to lose their appeal amongst younger voters and the dispossessed (who are two camps who overlap significantly). The demographics and opportunity for even a hung parliament won't start arriving until 2030/2035 when more off the baby boomers who own their own home will have died off, that lot are in total lock step with the Conservatives now.

 

I do think for them to be viable long term they need to give the young a bit more, so as to keep them on board when that change in demographics arrives along with any associated economic collapse. The issue will be that they will lose a significant number of seats in the interim through the ongoing demographic and economic processes, constituency boundary reform, associations with losses and not being the on the inside of the pork barrel tent.

 

There is a significant possibility that England ends up becoming like Hungary in terms of politics at this point if Labour's collapse continues. This would be exacerbated by Scottish independence and migrant inflows linked to climate change.

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Only six months ago, 

 

 

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-labour-lead-conservatives-5-points

 

How many socialists are there in Britain? Or if not socialists people of a left leaning persuasion? I'd guess as Labour had approx ten million votes at the last election easily a couple of million. So maybe it wasn't the wisest strategy to wage war on everyone from the left to please people like Tracey Ann Oberman on twitter, who wouldnt vote Labour if its previous leader Jeremy Corbyn was burnt at the stake. 

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6 hours ago, Brownie said:

Labour are finished.

We are coming out of a pandemic, results will always favour the siting government. Starmer needs to really try to unify the party now, going to be hard but if he can all is nor lost. Things could look a lot different in six months time. 

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1 hour ago, Moctezuma said:

They are caught between a rock and a hard place, if they become more propositional and social democratic the press will annihilate them as we saw with Corbyn, if the do the roll-up-in-a-ball technocrats bit they start to lose their appeal amongst younger voters and the dispossessed (who are two camps who overlap significantly). The demographics and opportunity for even a hung parliament won't start arriving until 2030/2035 when more off the baby boomers who own their own home will have died off, that lot are in total lock step with the Conservatives now.

 

I do think for them to be viable long term they need to give the young a bit more, so as to keep them on board when that change in demographics arrives along with any associated economic collapse. The issue will be that they will lose a significant number of seats in the interim through the ongoing demographic and economic processes, constituency boundary reform, associations with losses and not being the on the inside of the pork barrel tent.

 

There is a significant possibility that England ends up becoming like Hungary in terms of politics at this point if Labour's collapse continues. This would be exacerbated by Scottish independence and migrant inflows linked to climate change.

 

Might be a little late wooing the young, they've fucked off,

 

 

 

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I don't think Labour are necessarily finished.

The key to the Tories hold on the country is Johnson's popularity, I think even now it's underestimated.  

Labour need to get themselves ready for when Johnson is out on his ear, to have a credible leader and be a credible opposition.  Neither of those apply at the moment, certainly not to the electorate.

Starmer in one sense is a massive mistake but on the other hand it may be a good thing to get his tenure "out of the way" while Johnson's position is so strong.  As Johnson weakens (and he will but it could be a long while off) Labour need to make sure they strengthen, use this time to find their direction.

 

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