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4 minutes ago, skend04 said:

See, you seem way more approachable. I can't believe Spy Bee chucked a paddy. I haven't really kept up to date with it all and just skimmed through the thread as its way too depressing but the table I replied to showed 7% but if it's 19% then that's pretty shocking.

It depends how you calculate it.  I haven't checked, but I'd imagine 7% is calculated by total deaths vs total cases and 19% is total deaths vs all resolved cases (deaths + recovered cases).  The former method takes into account currently unresolved active cases, the latter does not and hence the higher percentage. 

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14 minutes ago, skend04 said:

See, you seem way more approachable. I can't believe Spy Bee chucked a paddy. I haven't really kept up to date with it all and just skimmed through the thread as its way too depressing but the table I replied to showed 7% but if it's 19% then that's pretty shocking.

Sasas correctly pointed out that using confirmed cases assumes all of those will recover.

 

Go here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

You can see Closed Cases (those where there was either a recovery or a death) and break it out by country as well.

Interestingly the UK is one of the only countries that does not report Recovered data.

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41 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Sasas correctly pointed out that using confirmed cases assumes all of those will recover.

 

Go here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

You can see Closed Cases (those where there was either a recovery or a death) and break it out by country as well.

Interestingly the UK is one of the only countries that does not report Recovered data.

Dutch too. Actually, many other countries are not really up to date, wherever you see a low number, it's meaningless.

 

Some wait longer, some only report recovered if hospitalized, some report God knows what.

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1 hour ago, TheHowieLama said:

Well that is not really going out on a limb. Yes it will be lower than 19%

On 1%, you may be right but to put that into perspective if no one died from here on there would need to be an additional 18 million more confirmed cases recorded. With no deaths.

I think, and I’m not arguing any point here mate, just discussing my understanding which could likely be wrong, that the estimated number of cases, including mild and non-confirmed is about 21 million, and current global cases is around 3.5 million, so that’s not too far off. Is it?

 

Edit - I’m just hell bent on taking anything positive from the data in order to prevent being more stressed than need be.

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FT bloke now estimates UK deaths linked to virus is 48100

As mentioned further on in thread this is now more people than were killed in Blitz

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

 

As was pointed out yesterday the death rate right now - using Worldometers data - is actually nineteen percent.

And the figure quoted by said poster was one half of one percent.

It's 7%. Worldwide cases- 3,249,742; worldwide deaths- 229,442. Dividing deaths by cases gives 0.07, or 7%.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

UK is a higher at 15.8%, but we're concentrated testing on patients with symptoms, so you'd expect that.  

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13 minutes ago, mattyq said:

FT bloke now estimates UK deaths linked to virus is 48100

As mentioned further on in thread this is now more people than were killed in Blitz

 

 

 

There is still a slight difference between the Blitz, or Vietnam as was the recent American comparison and Corona virus deaths.

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4 minutes ago, sir roger said:

 

Although I don't quite understand how would the antibody test determine the post-lockdown policies. If the test shows 7% of the population had it, how will that be different with respect to measures if 15% of the population had it? It's not like there is a chance UK is already at 50% to 60%.

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The blitz/covid comparisons are accurate in more ways than one. We somehow managed to turn getting the shit bombed out of us into some kind of exemplar of stoic, Britush fortitude with little debate set aside that we'd known for years before the war the Germans were training thousands of pilots and our companies were even selling components to the german aircraft industry.

 

We entered it woefully underequipped and ended up relying on the selflessness of 'the few' working around the clock and dying in droves to bail us out, after which a fat bloke took most of the credit. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

The blitz/covid comparisons are accurate in more ways than one. We somehow managed to turn getting the shit bombed out of us into some kind of exemplar of stoic, Britush fortitude with little debate set aside that we'd known for years before the war the Germans were training thousands of pilots and our companies were even selling components to the german aircraft industry.

 

Prescient.  A kind of European Economic Community in advance.

 

And anyway, Westinghouse et al in the good ole US or A were supplying the Germans too.

 

Coalition of the Willing in advance.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Mudface said:

It's 7%. Worldwide cases- 3,249,742; worldwide deaths- 229,442. Dividing deaths by cases gives 0.07, or 7%.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

UK is a higher at 15.8%, but we're concentrated testing on patients with symptoms, so you'd expect that.  

I get it, but doing that implies that none of what are listed as Active Cases dies - which is not going to happen.

 

Scroll a little on that link and you will see the figure for Cases Closed. That is the figure for cases with an outcome, good or bad.

 

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8 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

I get it, but doing that implies that none of what are listed as Active Cases dies - which is not going to happen.

 

Scroll a little on that link and you will see the figure for Cases Closed. That is the figure for cases with an outcome, good or bad.

 

That just puts us back to square one though, we don't know how many currently listed as active will die and we don't know how many active cases there are that haven't been tested. The only figure we can really use is current deaths/ number cases (and even that isn't great as not all countries are using the same methodology).

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Just now, Mudface said:

That just puts us back to square one though, we don't know how many currently listed as active will die and we don't know how many active cases there are that haven't been tested. The only figure we can really use is current deaths/ number cases (and even that isn't great as not all countries are using the same methodology).

I get it. Any way you slice it, it is not good. 

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I was watching CNN last night, they had the CEO of Philips on the doing one of their look at me I'm great slots. What he said was really interesting though, they seen a spike in orders for ventilators in early January and immediately doubled capacity and kept doubling it until it reached 20000 per week by the end of the month. I don't sit on Cobra or SAGE but surely dropping a mail to him would be more beneficial than ringing Mr Dyson and asking to switch his hand dryers to ventilators?

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Honestly there's no point in trying to compute a mortality rate right now. The methodological problems are so many its not even funny. Its probably in the 4% region but we won't really know until we are on the other side of the looking glass. 

 

While everybody is asking what the mortality rate is few seem to be wondering what the long term affects on the body might be which is just as important a question. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Jordy Brouwer said:

Honestly there's no point in trying to compute a mortality rate right now. The methodological problems are so many its not even funny. Its probably in the 4% region but we won't really know until we are on the other side of the looking glass. 

 

While everybody is asking what the mortality rate is few seem to be wondering what the long term affects on the body might be which is just as important a question. 

 

 

I agree there is no point in trying to compute the morality rate right now, but cannot help myself so I will just add that it almost certainly isn't in the region of 4%.

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1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

The blitz/covid comparisons are accurate in more ways than one. We somehow managed to turn getting the shit bombed out of us into some kind of exemplar of stoic, Britush fortitude with little debate set aside that we'd known for years before the war the Germans were training thousands of pilots and our companies were even selling components to the german aircraft industry.

 

We entered it woefully underequipped and ended up relying on the selflessness of 'the few' working around the clock and dying in droves to bail us out, after which a fat bloke took most of the credit. 

 

The blitz was embarrassing as well. They're only fucking bombs being dropped from a flying tin bucket, wiping out whole streets. I don't get the hysteria and panic. You wait till you get the flu. 

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40 minutes ago, Jordy Brouwer said:

Honestly there's no point in trying to compute a mortality rate right now. The methodological problems are so many its not even funny. Its probably in the 4% region but we won't really know until we are on the other side of the looking glass. 

 

While everybody is asking what the mortality rate is few seem to be wondering what the long term affects on the body might be which is just as important a question. 

 

 

It can't be 4%. Way too high. But as you say, the mortality rate is almost irrelevant. It's too complicated to accurately figure out.  

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I give up on UK numbers. Where is this 6000 new cases coming from all of a sudden, why is there over 2,5K cases from previous 4 days being reported today.

 

What does this chart even mean?

 

image.png

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5 hours ago, Section_31 said:

No child has been found to have passed coronavirus to an adult, a review of evidence in partnership with the Royal College of Paediatricians has found.

Major studies into the impact of Covid-19 on young children show it is likely that they "do not play a significant role" in spreading the virus and are significantly less likely to become infected than adults.

While experts have said more evidence is needed, they note that there has not been a single case of a child under 10 transmitting the virus even in contact tracing carried out by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Fuck. I’ve been killing local kids just in case. 

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2 hours ago, SasaS said:

There is still a slight difference between the Blitz, or Vietnam as was the recent American comparison and Corona virus deaths.

Obviously

One lot were killed by the Luftwaffe in a war 80 years ago and the other lot were killed by a novel virus now. The Blitz killed 32k civilians and the virus 48k according to FT

It's an interesting comparison in more ways than one

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