Coronavirus

[Spy Bee]

24 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Yes I do -- for clarity usually when there is a decimal point used it makes it less than 1.

 

So right now the mortality rate is 7%. It is not 0.7% as that is less then 1%.  

 

If you are using a metric of 1.0 =100% then .7 would equal 70%.

 

Yes, imo - the total will be less than 5% - it will end up being around 3% imo.

Still no idea where you got 0.005% from, because I only ever stated 0.5%, which all current studies I am aware of predict the ultimate mortality rate falling below.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

Well, this is reassuring.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/29/concerns-over-training-emergency-morgues-run-uk-festival-firm-london?fbclid=IwAR03k2cuEXGb8N9vJiyBSrNxkXMZvDxZ5EzTWk-EcwYgMMn4EWz2ePawsYY

 

A music festival company contracted to operate emergency mortuaries in London has been accused of inadequately training workers in handling bodies, and demanding staff sign non-disclosure agreements.

[TheHowieLama]

5 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Still no idea where you got 0.005% from, because I only ever stated 0.5%, which all current studies I am aware of predict the ultimate mortality rate falling below.

Read back through the thread mate - my misunderstanding as in a single sentence you used a pure percentage (5%) followed by the somewhat disingenuous 0.5%. I took that to mean one half of one percent. My bad.

 

Yes I agree that the final number will be below 5% - as stated imo 3%.

 

As an aside how would you write 24% using this goofy decimal thing?

Is that 2.4%?

 

Asking for a friend.

[SasaS]

15 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Really good point on the confirmed cases assumption. Had not thought of that.

 

Given the stuff above - would that be written as .24%? Otherwise it would need to be 2.4%.

 

EDIT - hold up you sneaky bastard it is 18.4%

 

Deaths divided by Cases "Closed" (deaths + recovered)

 

OK, I'll allow cases closed instead of just recovered.

Even so, it's much higher. And equally pointless, because recovered numbers are not available for some countries, and clearly not being updated properly (UK is n/a, Italy is strangely low compared to Spain etc).

[TheHowieLama]

1 minute ago, SasaS said:

OK, I'll allow cases closed instead of just recovered.
 

Sweet - we have just saved 6% of the worlds population

[SasaS]

7 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Read back through the thread mate - my misunderstanding as in a single sentence you used a pure percentage (5%) followed by the somewhat disingenuous 0.5%. I took that to mean one half of one percent. My bad.

 

Yes I agree that the final number will be below 5% - as stated imo 3%.

 

As an aside how would you write 24% using this goofy decimal thing?

Is that 2.4%?

 

Asking for a friend.

24% is 0.24. But not 0.24% or 2.4%.

[sir roger]

10 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

Well, this is reassuring.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/29/concerns-over-training-emergency-morgues-run-uk-festival-firm-london?fbclid=IwAR03k2cuEXGb8N9vJiyBSrNxkXMZvDxZ5EzTWk-EcwYgMMn4EWz2ePawsYY

 

A music festival company contracted to operate emergency mortuaries in London has been accused of inadequately training workers in handling bodies, and demanding staff sign non-disclosure agreements.

Looking on the bright side you can get the Killers for your cremation.

[Bjornebye]

8 minutes ago, sir roger said:

Looking on the bright side you can get the Killers for your cremation.

He's always said he wants no fuss. 

[TheHowieLama]

9 minutes ago, SasaS said:

24% is 0.24. But not 0.24% or 2.4%.

What is 0.5% in percent?

[TheBitch]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

What is 0.5% in percent?

ME, ME, ME...

 

It’s 0.005, sir. 

[Spy Bee]

22 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Read back through the thread mate - my misunderstanding as in a single sentence you used a pure percentage (5%) followed by the somewhat disingenuous 0.5%. I took that to mean one half of one percent. My bad.

 

Yes I agree that the final number will be below 5% - as stated imo 3%.

 

As an aside how would you write 24% using this goofy decimal thing?

Is that 2.4%?

 

Asking for a friend.

I am talking about one half of one percent. Suggesting I have been disingenuous is a bit rich, when you can't comprehend simple numbers, percentages and decimal points. Lucky for me I have been doing home schooling on this with our 9 year old just this last few days.

[Pureblood]

This "moment of maximum risk" thing is pissing me off.  They are trying to rewrite history as it's happening.  The moment of maximum risk came before 25,000 people died.  

[SasaS]

19 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I am talking about one half of one percent. Suggesting I have been disingenuous is a bit rich, when you can't comprehend simple numbers, percentages and decimal points. Lucky for me I have been doing home schooling on this with our 9 year old just this last few days.

That's an unfair advantage, you should have stated that in advance.

[Pureblood]

Daily Briefing bingo

 

Unprecedented = 1 point

Unprecedented package = 2 points

Follow(ing) the science = 1 point

Guided by the science = 5 points

Follow(ing) the science at all times/every step of the way = 10 points

We'll get through this = 2 points

We'll get through this together = 5 points

Light at the end of the tunnel = 2 points

Our NHS = 1 point

Our fantastic NHS = 5 points

Protect our NHS = 5 points

Ramping up = 1 point

Ramped up = 1 point

Continue to ramp up = 2 points

Moment of maximum risk = 1 point

Save lives = 1 point

I'm very clear = 1 point

We're very clear = 1 point

Let me be clear = 2 points

Working day and night = 5 points

Constantly under review = 2 points

Every effort = 2 points

Everything we possibly can = 5 points

We're sorry = 1,000 points

I'm sorry = 2,000 points

We apologise unreservedly = 50,000 points

 

[SasaS]

So, if am not mistaken, they have now added non-hospital deaths for the first time, but the numbers are not divided into hospital and other, so they can no longer be meaningfully compared.

 

Also, they have added several thousand previously unreported non-hospital deaths, but we do not know it this is one of several such updates nor do we know what are the dates this update refers to?

 

Or not?

[Scott_M]

2 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Also, they have added several thousand previously unreported non-hospital deaths, but we do not know it this is one of several such updates nor do we know what are the dates this update refers to?

 

Or not?

I’m an analyst with the biggest bank in the country and do a significant amount of analysis on the biggest mortgage portfolio in Europe. 
 

If I presented graphs or jumbled up figures like the government have, I swear my boss would literally look at it and say “what’s this fucking shit? Do it again.”

[Oh Buoy]

4,419 today (all deaths recorded).

 

Saddening.

[SasaS]

4 minutes ago, Scott_M said:

I’m an analyst with the biggest bank in the country and do a significant amount of analysis on the biggest mortgage portfolio in Europe. 
 

If I presented graphs or jumbled up figures like the government have, I swear my boss would literally look at it and say “what’s this fucking shit? Do it again.”

 

This is Cummings right, obfuscation as a strategy? It must be deliberate.

[Scott_M]

9 minutes ago, foam said:

4,419 today (all deaths recorded).

 

Saddening.

 

So are we saying that c.3.9k from today are care homes and the rest are hospitals?
 

 

In hospitals, numbers are clearly coming down. I wonder if they are deliberately keeping numbers high so people adhere to lockdown longer?

[SasaS]

No, as I understand, they are previously unreported possibly care home deaths (or all non-hospital, or some non-hospital, or some non-hospital plus some unreported hospital, who knows). The rest are all new deaths reported for today, hospital plus non-hospital. But I could be wrong. 

[Grinch]

They'll need to be adding four thousand a day for quite some time to get near the real figure. 

[Scott_M]

I think, the hospital death toll is 586 for today and 22,345 in total. By adding in c.4.k of care home deaths, that’s where the 26,097 figure comes from. 
 

Obviously it’s be handy to know over what time period the care home numbers are spread over. Since March? Just April? Last week? Yesterday?

 

Those graphs need to be staked bars really now. 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

I reckon this coronavirus might have been knocking round for much longer than people think...

 

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=313863729597439&id=100029214424988

[SasaS]

12 minutes ago, Scott_M said:

I think, the hospital death toll is 586 for today and 22,345 in total. By adding in c.4.k of care home deaths, that’s where the 26,097 figure comes from. 
 

Obviously it’s be handy to know over what time period the care home numbers are spread over. Since March? Just April? Last week? Yesterday?

 

Those graphs need to be staked bars really now. 

But they said, as of today, care home and other non-hospital deaths would be included in the daily total.

 

Does that mean that today's non-hospital number is in the 4K? And not in the 586? But tomorrow, it would be included? Or they intend to continue reporting only hospital deaths and include care home deaths in additional, bigger number from some unspecified past period.

[SasaS]

"4076 new cases and 4419 new deaths in the United Kingdom "Public Health England (PHE) has developed a new method of reporting daily COVID-19 deaths, to give a more complete number of those who have died from the virus. For the first time from today, Wednesday 29 April 2020, the government’s daily figure will include deaths that have occurred in all settings where there has been a positive COVID-19 test, including hospitals, care homes and the wider community. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales already report out-of-hospital deaths. Today’s figures have been revised retrospectively by PHE since the first death on 2 March 2020 to include additional data sources. This will bring the total number of deaths in the UK to 26,097 from 2 March until 28 April, including 765 deaths reported in the 24 hours to 5 pm on 28 April [...]"

So 3.9K is the total number of previously unreported deaths form 2 March, and represents ALL deaths which FT estimated to be as high as 47K, instead of 26K, based on the excess deaths analysis.