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Coronavirus


Bjornebye

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6 minutes ago, TK421 said:

You are wrong. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w

 

Information gleaned from such outbreaks is crucial for people making decisions on how to manage the epidemic, say researchers.

 

 “Cruise ships are like an ideal experiment of a closed population. You know exactly who is there and at risk and you can measure everyone,” says John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist at Stanford University in California. This is very different from trying to study the spread in a wider population, where only some people, typically those with severe symptoms, are tested and monitored.

As I am sure you are aware - the term "closed population" is not applicable to any other scenario.

 

Even the strictest lockdown does not approach anything near the petri dish a ship does. That is why scientists like it - it is a controlled experiment.

 

It certainly is a positive that even in the most contagious environment anyone could be exposed to only 1 in 5 caught it. Heck, even a 1.5% death rate looks good compared to existing data for most countires.

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1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

As I am sure you are aware - the term "closed population" is not applicable to any other scenario.

 

Even the strictest lockdown does not approach anything near the petri dish a ship does. That is why scientists like it - it is a controlled experiment.

 

It certainly is a positive that even in the most contagious environment anyone could be exposed to only 1 in 5

caught it. Heck, even a 1.5% death rate looks good compared to existing data for most countires.

I'll go with what the Stanford epidemiologist says rather TheHowieLama on the internet.  

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3 minutes ago, TK421 said:

I have faith in the article from Nature.  Widely respected publication. No need for a three hour Googlethon. 

Ok - so do I - here is the summary of the article you posted.

 

Although insights from the ship about the virus’s spread and severity are valuable, it is difficult to draw lessons from its quarantine for those countries implementing similar lockdown measures, says Ioannidis. “A whole country is not a ship.”

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1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

You didn't actually read the whole article did you?

Yes, I just disagree that the paragraph you quoted nullifies the rest of it.  I also find it excruciating discussing anything with you, and always have done. You're doing that thing you did with 3 Stacks recently on the mask thread where you just type bollocks for the sake of being argumentative.  It's so tedious. 

 

Now make a flounce joke and fuck off, i'm bored of you.

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7 hours ago, Sugar Ape said:


One of my mates is obsessed with everything being positive. Anyone someone says something in one of our WhatsApps groups about the death count rising or something he’s there calling them a prophet of doom and accusing them of being depressing, all while insisting pubs will be open within a couple of weeks and he’ll still be going on his family holiday to Turkey in June. 

The news over here yesterday said don’t expect to take holidays abroad this year, now part of that could be to help regional Australia into recovery after the fires, but we will also lose a lot in overseas tourism, so not a decision they will take lightly. Still lots of thoughts that the lockdown will last 6 months, and could become more severe before being lifted at all.

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Just now, TK421 said:

Yes, I just disagree that the paragraph you quoted nullifies the rest of it.  I also find it excruciating discussing anything with you, and always have done. You're doing that thing you did with 3 Stacks recently on the mask thread where you just type bollocks for the sake of being argumentative.  It's so tedious. 

 

Now make a flounce joke and fuck off, i'm bored of you.

It is because you do not do facts and stuff, you're just not good at it - you are a feeling guy.

 

And we both know the guy who is going to fuck off. We have plenty of data on that.

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From what I have seen and read, it is safe to assume, it is far more contagious than originally thought, and almost all of the spread is done before the symptoms start (so stuff like temperature checks at airports and testing only the symptomatic is basically completely useless) but it is also far less deadly.

 

That is why it has basically stopped the world as we know it, it just cant be detected without mass testing, which most countries are not doing. 

 

Only thing left to know really is immunity. Better hope there is some in most if not all people who get it and for a decent period of time. If not... Yikes.

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7 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

No, this won't do at all. You need to be running round screaming that the sky's falling in while dressed like an extra from an alien autopsy video. That's the proportionate response.

are you accusing people of over-reacting? Yet you basically said you have a suitcase packed beside the door and follow a load of people on Twitter to understand the safety for you and your family? Seriously? You are a fucking joke man.

come on, give us the numbers on Jewish people killed in Britain, this century by anti-semites, as this is what you are inferring.

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7 hours ago, Elite said:

How are people getting on with their hair? I look like a yeti at the moment, thinking of getting some dubbers and shaving it all off.

Not cut mine since November, was also growing a shit beard since then til mid March, when someone pointed out it could be a bit of a viral trap. Shedding like a motherfucker though, told the missus I’m gonna look like Bill Bailey by the time this is over.

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9 hours ago, SasaS said:

You should not look at individual days. If you look at the numbers over the Easter weekend, you will see they barely had any. It is very likely that numbers for Tuesday and Wednesday include the Easter lag.

Another day of over 10% increase in deaths -- see what tomorrow brings.

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