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Bjornebye

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On 21/03/2020 at 18:04, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

We were never following those figures. The Italy column begins from the date of the first death. The UK column begins two days after the date of the first death. The UK column has been shunted down for no apparent reason, it's extremely misleading, doubtless whoever created it has an agenda to push.

 

We're 16 days after the first death here (5 Mar to 21 Mar), and we're up to 233. After 16 days (22 Feb to 9 Mar) Italy was up to 463.

 

26 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

The lag can be much bigger than that. One death reported yesterday happened 17 days earlier.

 

Just one of the reasons why picking a single day's numbers and using it to make a point is a fool's errand.

Remember the other posts where you claimed to have 'debunked' the whole thing? You know when you were using daily statistics to prove we weren't on the same trajectory as Italy? 

 

Clown. 

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Personally speaking from what I've seen and read thus far is that we probably won't reach peak until end of April/start of May.

 

Social distancing even today is still not being adhered to. All you need to is look for pics on Twitter, particularly those on public transport and supermarkets. The penny only dropped with supermarkets recently about crowd control. Just imagine how many people have been passing it to each other up until very recently.

 

The main thing that some are forgetting is the lag in terms of catching the virus, showing symptoms and even hospitalisation. You could potentially be talking about 4-6 week lag for number of deaths (or even more). This obviously depends on the strain you are exposed to and whether you actually end up in hospital as most won't be.

 

Going forwards, the daily death rate isn't the number to look at, it's the number of new infections and those new admissions to hospitals.

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2 minutes ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

Personally speaking from what I've seen and read thus far is that we probably won't reach peak until end of April/start of May.

 

Social distancing even today is still not being adhered to. All you need to is look for pics on Twitter, particularly those on public transport and supermarkets. The penny only dropped with supermarkets recently about crowd control.

 

The main thing that some are forgetting is the lag in terms of catching the virus, showing symptoms and even hospitalisation. You could potentially be talking about 30 days lag for number of deaths (or even more). This obviously depends on the strain you are exposed to and whether you actually end up in hospital as most won't be.

 

Going forwards, the daily death rate isn't the number to look at, it's the number of new infections and those new admissions to hospitals.

Its probably going to be a lot longer than that. You've still got dickheads like those lot who turned up to see that medical ship turn up in New York. Completely missing he whole point either selfishly or through being ignorant fucking idiots. Only last week two bastard women who live opposite each other on our road were sat outside next to each other on deck chairs while their kids were playing in the street. 

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This is “The Hammer & The Dance” that Spybee mentioned.

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

Probably already been posted but now harm re-reading again.
 

It does make sense. Interesting that as we farted about for so long, our hammer is now quite hard & that there won’t be any seen benefit from lockdown for at least 12 days. 
 

Hopefully this time next week, we start to see numbers go down. Let’s just hope they  aren’t starting from an astronomically high figure.


I also like that the articles title sounds like a Game Of Thrones episode.

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The figures in Ireland point to a flattening of the curve. We are a good week ahead of the UK in actual terms and appear to be a country mile ahead in terms of adapting to social distancing. 

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Someone from Tesco in Litherland  posted this on Facebook. Basically bellends just going out to the shop because they are bored and dont want to sit in the house.

FB_IMG_1585667456278.jpg

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11 minutes ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

Personally speaking from what I've seen and read thus far is that we probably won't reach peak until end of April/start of May.

 

Social distancing even today is still not being adhered to. All you need to is look for pics on Twitter, particularly those on public transport and supermarkets. The penny only dropped with supermarkets recently about crowd control. Just imagine how many people have been passing it to each other up until very recently.

 

The main thing that some are forgetting is the lag in terms of catching the virus, showing symptoms and even hospitalisation. You could potentially be talking about 4-6 week lag for number of deaths (or even more). This obviously depends on the strain you are exposed to and whether you actually end up in hospital as most won't be.

 

Going forwards, the daily death rate isn't the number to look at, it's the number of new infections and those new admissions to hospitals.

We haven't reached a peak in Spain yet. It's probably somewhere around a week off. Hopefully sooner, obviously. We're now in our third week of lockdown, yet lockdown in the UK hasn't even really started properly yet. 

 

As you say, it's fucking worrying seeing the amount of situations where people are still in huge numbers together - waiting for transport, on transport, building site canteens, supermarkets, etc, and that's just those that are following the rules. 

 

I think we've got another 4-6 weeks of isolation here. I hope it isn't much more in the UK, but the piecemeal measures taken (for whatever reason) point to it being much, much longer.

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2 minutes ago, Doctor Troy said:

Someone from Tesco posted this on Facebook. Basically bellends just going out to the shop because they are bored and dont want to sit in the house.

FB_IMG_1585667456278.jpg


Sounds like a job for Indian police.
 

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59 minutes ago, sir roger said:

Cheers Stig , turns out one of the under-reported symptoms of the virus is that it can cause heart palpitations similar to a mild heart attack, but the paramedic she spoke to didn't want to take any chances so she had to go in for an ECG and blood tests. Feels a lot better today and hopefully the meds will help further over the next few days.

At least that sounds positive for a full recovery.

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2 hours ago, Nelly-Torres said:

When our new moee caring and sharing society emerges from the coronavirus recovery, we shouldn't forget people like Toby Young. Get their heads on spikes. 

EUcFVxgX0AEx6qo.png

You really have to hope this massive cunt gets it, gets trapped in his own attic, and spends his last few minutes on the planet being shat on by rats.

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48 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I'm suggesting that they might be quite happy about being on target to achieve what they are aiming to. Not that I am happy.

 

Well, we have to get through this somehow. The minimum impact to the economy, you could argue, is to get through this as quickly as possible, without the collapse of society. If that is the case, you want to be operating at maximum capacity as soon as possible, for as long as possible until everyone who is going to die is dead.

 

It's my belief that this is the government objective, and while on the face of it, it is heartless, it may have some logic behind it. The longer this goes on, the more other people will suffer with mental health issues, urgent suspected cancers, general ill health. Social isolation will lead to issues with children's development,supply of food, water, power and strain on the threads of society etc.

 

The Observer just over a week ago ran some numbers and a similar article called The Hammer and The Dance was doing the rounds, showing that suppression was not possible, and trying to supress things would in the long term be more damaging. I'm not qualified to know what the best path is, but I can guarantee you that there are no good ones.

Some good points made there.

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1 hour ago, TK421 said:

Prof Pike of Imperial College said the daily toll would peak at 260.  That was a few days ago. These people are advising the government.   It's unacceptable for the government to continue to be advised by Imperial College.  Sir Patrick Vallance should do the decent thing and resign, if he doesn't he should be sacked along with Chris Whitty.  A new approach is needed because the existing one isn't working. 

Depends on what the governments real model was/is.

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12 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Its probably going to be a lot longer than that. You've still got dickheads like those lot who turned up to see that medical ship turn up in New York. Completely missing he whole point either selfishly or through being ignorant fucking idiots. Only last week two bastard women who live opposite each other on our road were sat outside next to each other on deck chairs while their kids were playing in the street. 


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1 hour ago, Captain Turdseye said:

You are our resident American Political Correspondent, are you not?

 

Ah, not really, I think people from the US that are on here would be better at that. I just get a bit obsessed during elections and when they're doing the latest coup/warmongering episode.

 

And yeah for some reason Trump thinks it's fine to openly state stuff then deny he's ever said it like that clip showed, crazy that he's now doing it during this. At the rate he's going Biden might actually have a good chance in November.

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14 minutes ago, No2 said:

The figures in Ireland point to a flattening of the curve. We are a good week ahead of the UK in actual terms and appear to be a country mile ahead in terms of adapting to social distancing. 

Not adapting any better,  more decisive, definitive, no grey area decisions and instructions. All this from a lame duck government really should put into focus the dithering mess from the uk government. Maybe that’s the point Leo knows he will not be in power soon and will not have to put up with the aftermath. However have to say he will get quite a bit of kudos for his response to the crisis.

 

and all this with a completely broken healthcare system before covid

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26 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Remember the other posts where you claimed to have 'debunked' the whole thing? You know when you were using daily statistics to prove we weren't on the same trajectory as Italy? 

 

Clown. 

 

Er, what? You've just posted an example of me talking about several weeks' worth of figures. On what planet is that picking a single day's figures?

 

Quite obviously, you can't use a single day's statistics to prove trajectory. And indeed, we're still way behind Italy, as I already proved weeks ago.

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11 minutes ago, Doctor Troy said:

Someone from Tesco in Litherland  posted this on Facebook. Basically bellends just going out to the shop because they are bored and dont want to sit in the house.

FB_IMG_1585667456278.jpg


I went out to the chemist and to Tesco earlier and I asked one of the workers (from a safe distance) where I could find celery salt and another one where the custard was. Does this make me a cunt?

 

They didn’t even have custard. 

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5 minutes ago, Dougie Do'ins said:

Depends on what the governments real model was/is.

Yes indeed. I think it's to "administer the maximum number of deaths per day".  Not keen on it myself. 

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3 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Er, what? You've just posted an example of me talking about several weeks' worth of figures. On what planet is that picking a single day's figures?

 

Quite obviously, you can't use a single day's statistics to prove trajectory. And indeed, we're still way behind Italy, as I already proved weeks ago.

Ok SD. 

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10 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

You really have to hope this massive cunt gets it, gets trapped in his own attic, and spends his last few minutes on the planet being shat on by rats.

Do I get his head for my spike before or after he's dead? 

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24 minutes ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

Social distancing even today is still not being adhered to. All you need to is look for pics on Twitter, particularly those on public transport and supermarkets.

 

All I can say is that that doesn't reflect my experiences. The train was virtually empty this morning, as was Liverpool city centre. Supermarkets are tightly regulating numbers of customers at any one time.

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18 minutes ago, Doctor Troy said:

Someone from Tesco in Litherland  posted this on Facebook. Basically bellends just going out to the shop because they are bored and dont want to sit in the house.

FB_IMG_1585667456278.jpg

 

14 minutes ago, SasaS said:


Sounds like a job for Indian police.
 

 

 

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I tested positive for the virus but am out of hospital now. Just feel light-headed as fuck due to the blood thinners.

 

There wasn't many young people in hospital with the virus, I was only in there due to the blood clots in my lungs. The 'younger' people tended to be fat, conversely I saw very old people with the virus that appeared to be dealing with it okay, their main issues were the complete inability to care for themselves such as incontinence, feeding, etc but that's probably their general level of independence.

 

Fortunately I did not get close to the ICU, so can't comment on the demographic in there.

 

There appeared to be plenty PPE available for staff and enough beds but this is just the tip of the iceberg.

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