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Bjornebye

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Just now, Spy Bee said:

I was running those numbers through my head again last night; that we should now or soon be seeing a reduction in admissions due to the lockdown, but then I thought that we've got an unoccupied 4000 bed hospitals and 2 more 1000 bed hospitals being built. So admission are clearly not going to ramp down.

 

I'm not sure if I can make any sense of the projections now.

The wife had to attend Fazakerley Hospital  A&E last night on a coronavirus-linked issue and it was a scary experience. They have basically split the hospital in half and one half is totally Covid focused. We had to wait on the forecourt until an A&E nurse came out in full space suit garb to take the details and then took my wife through and I wasn't allowed in. She was treated brilliantly and was out within 6 hours but said there were a load of beds all taken with Covid victims and it had the feel of a field hospital. The staff who attended her definitely felt it was going to get worse not better in the short term.

 

The only light-hearted episode was a middle-aged bloke in a tracky who barged past me and 3 paramedics with a bloke on a trolley when the wife was giving her details, to demand a massage from somebody as his back was killing him and he hadn't slept properly for 2 weeks. The looks on the nurse and paramedics faces was brilliant.

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2 minutes ago, TK421 said:

We're not flattening the curve, it continues on an exponential path.  The death rate will steadily increase like it has in Italy and Spain.  

It depends. If their aim is to administrate the maximum number of deaths per day to enable us to get to the other side of this situation as soon as possible. they're probably quite happy with progress. We're clearly nowhere near the envisaged capacity yet. If you add another 15000 hospital beds (the private hospitals and the makeshift hospitals) then what does your death toll extrapolate out to?

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3 minutes ago, sir roger said:

The wife had to attend Fazakerley Hospital  A&E last night on a coronavirus-linked issue and it was a scary experience. They have basically split the hospital in half and one half is totally Covid focused. We had to wait on the forecourt until an A&E nurse came out in full space suit garb to take the details and then took my wife through and I wasn't allowed in. She was treated brilliantly and was out within 6 hours but said there were a load of beds all taken with Covid victims and it had the feel of a field hospital. The staff who attended her definitely felt it was going to get worse not better in the short term.

 

The only light-hearted episode was a middle-aged bloke in a tracky who barged past me and 3 paramedics with a bloke on a trolley when the wife was giving her details, to demand a massage from somebody as his back was killing him and he hadn't slept properly for 2 weeks. The looks on the nurse and paramedics faces was brilliant.

Hope she is ok fella 

 

 

 

And the fellas back obviously 

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1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Hope she is ok fella 

Cheers Stig , turns out one of the under-reported symptoms of the virus is that it can cause heart palpitations similar to a mild heart attack, but the paramedic she spoke to didn't want to take any chances so she had to go in for an ECG and blood tests. Feels a lot better today and hopefully the meds will help further over the next few days.

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3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

It depends. If their aim is to administrate the maximum number of deaths per day to enable us to get to the other side of this situation as soon as possible. they're probably quite happy with progress. We're clearly nowhere near the envisaged capacity yet. If you add another 15000 hospital beds (the private hospitals and the makeshift hospitals) then what does your death toll extrapolate out to?


Also, you should look at death numbers in slightly longer periods, there was a big jump in the UK seven days ago, so a lag in weekend numbers may be an influence. The bad news is that that jump las Tuesday was to 87 deaths.

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5 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

It depends. If their aim is to administrate the maximum number of deaths per day to enable us to get to the other side of this situation as soon as possible. they're probably quite happy with progress. We're clearly nowhere near the envisaged capacity yet. If you add another 15000 hospital beds (the private hospitals and the makeshift hospitals) then what does your death toll extrapolate out to?

I can scarcely believe what I'm reading. "Quite happy with progress". Fucking hell. 

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Just now, TK421 said:

A lay person like me could easily spot that he was wrong.

 

It's been a regular thing. Like the hundreds of thousands of deaths herd immunity would cause. People all over social media were saying huge numbers would die, but no they had to wait until the Imperial College findings to suddenly realise what many of us had been going mad about. Too hard to check the death rate at the time then google the UK population and use a calculator, needed a study for it instead.

 

It took over a week of people going mental about schools being open until they closed them too. It's almost like they were enforcing measures that had been popular on twitter for days on end instead of having any real idea what the fuck they were doing.

 

At least there's some type of lockdown currently in place and they seem willing to keep it going instead of being out on the streets like Bolsonaro in Brazil has been, saying "We’ll all die one day."

 

I think we might be in trouble until there's way more testing and/or the lockdown is working better. Or maybe like Italy has done, we could get experts in from other countries to help. But maybe this gov is too full of itself at the moment for any of that. That could change if things get worse though.

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7 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Also, you should look at death numbers in slightly longer periods, there was a big jump in the UK seven days ago, so a lag in weekend numbers may be an influence. The bad news is that that jump las Tuesday was to 87 deaths.

 

The lag can be much bigger than that. One death reported yesterday happened 17 days earlier.

 

Just one of the reasons why picking a single day's numbers and using it to make a point is a fool's errand.

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5 minutes ago, TK421 said:

I can scarcely believe what I'm reading. "Quite happy with progress". Fucking hell. 

1 minute ago, TK421 said:

Why is the aim to "administrate the maximum number of deaths per day"? That sounds bad to me. 

I'm suggesting that they might be quite happy about being on target to achieve what they are aiming to. Not that I am happy.

 

Well, we have to get through this somehow. The minimum impact to the economy, you could argue, is to get through this as quickly as possible, without the collapse of society. If that is the case, you want to be operating at maximum capacity as soon as possible, for as long as possible until everyone who is going to die is dead.

 

It's my belief that this is the government objective, and while on the face of it, it is heartless, it may have some logic behind it. The longer this goes on, the more other people will suffer with mental health issues, urgent suspected cancers, general ill health. Social isolation will lead to issues with children's development,supply of food, water, power and strain on the threads of society etc.

 

The Observer just over a week ago ran some numbers and a similar article called The Hammer and The Dance was doing the rounds, showing that suppression was not possible, and trying to supress things would in the long term be more damaging. I'm not qualified to know what the best path is, but I can guarantee you that there are no good ones.

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Just now, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

The lag can be much bigger than that. One death reported yesterday happened 17 days earlier.

 

Just one of the reasons why picking a single day's numbers and using it to make a point is a fool's errand.

You didn't do this last week no? Its that self-awareness vacuum again SD. 

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Just now, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

I don't recall doing that, perhaps you'd be kind enough to jog my memory?

Convenient. You did. If you don't think you did then feel free to try and prove that you didn't. But you did, and have been spouting about daily figures since this pretty much started killing people in the UK. 

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Just now, Spy Bee said:

Well, we have to get through this somehow. The minimum impact to the economy, you could argue, is to get through this as quickly as possible, without the collapse of society. If that is the case, you want to be operating at maximum capacity as soon as possible, for as long as possible until everyone who is going to die is dead.

This makes chilling reading and you are very easily manipulated.  Honestly I just don't know how anyone can think this way.  But just to be clear, you're okay with killing as many people as possible as quickly as possible? You endorse this strategy?

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1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Convenient. You did. If you don't think you did then feel free to try and prove that you didn't. But you did, and have been spouting about daily figures since this pretty much started killing people in the UK. 

Stop being a hysterical fanny!

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1 minute ago, TK421 said:

This makes chilling reading and you are very easily manipulated.  Honestly I just don't know how anyone can think this way.  But just to be clear, you're okay with killing as many people as possible as quickly as possible? You endorse this strategy?

That's not what I said. If you are not willing to have a conversation with nuance, then there is absolutely no point in conversing with you.

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3 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Convenient. You did. If you don't think you did then feel free to try and prove that you didn't. But you did, and have been spouting about daily figures since this pretty much started killing people in the UK. 

 

Well, no, the onus is on the person making the claim to prove it. I had a look through my posts and couldn't find anything, the only figures I could find that I had posted were yearly ones. Methinks you are making stuff up again.

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2 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

That's not what I said. If you are not willing to have a conversation with nuance, then there is absolutely no point in conversing with you.

Okay, no problem. 

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Just now, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Well, no, the onus is on the person making the claim to prove it. I had a look through my posts and couldn't find anything, the only figures I could find that I had posted were yearly ones. Methinks you are making stuff up again.

I don't make things up. You are the liar not me. 

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