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Coronavirus

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3 minutes ago, Mudface said:

https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html

 

Depends on where it occurs, I guess, I'd imagine the higher R0 figures are for more densely populated areas. Measles is a right cunt.

 

DISEASE REPRODUCTION NUMBER R0
Ebola, 2014 1.51 to 2.53
H1N1 Influenza, 2009 1.46 to 1.48
Seasonal Influenza 0.9 to 2.1
Measles 12 to 18
MERS around 1
Polio 5 to 7
SARS <1 to 2.75
Smallpox 5 to 7
SARS-CoV-2 (causes COVID-19) 1.5 to 3.5

Thanks . I feel a bit better looking at that list. 

 

Im lucky, out of all the above ive only got SARS, smallpox and Ebola.

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7 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Yeah fair point but we have got to start looking at the the permanent damage that can be caused by letting this strangle vital services for longer than necessary. 

Until the test for people who've had the virus becomes widely available, I doubt we'll see too much of a significant relaxation.

7 minutes ago, mattyq said:

Just heard that one of my best mates is in intensive care at the JR in Oxford. His sister says he's got 2 days to respond to treatment or it's over. He's 41 with an 10 year old daughter

Shit, that's awful. Fingers crossed he pulls through.

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Was on the phone to my mum yesterday. She's been to Sainsbury's (twice) and M and S in the last couple of days. She thinks the Coronavirus situation is "a load of rubbish". She's early 60s. 

 

Tried to say to her - what if there was a food scare and some maniac was spiking tins of beans with cyanide? And 150 people a day were being killed? You wouldn't keep on buying beans so stop going to the fucking shops. 

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32 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Talk of doctors giving respiratory help to only those with the best chance of survival 

Obviously. This is the sort of heartbreaking decision doctors have been having to make in Italy and Spain for weeks. Literally deciding who they don’t even try to save.

 

They’ve had to talk of setting an age threshold to let people into intensive care. As we likely will imminently. Not leaving them with ventilators until they’re better or die even when on one til the last moment. Not intubating them. Even letting them in the door and trying to treat them.

 

Its kind of why there’s a big move to get everyone to stay indoors to slow the rate of transmission and stay that way until it’s safe to lift restrictions, as otherwise a lot of vulnerable people who might be saved under normal circumstances will die if everyone gets it at once, as has been happening around the world.

 

PS: This isn’t about UK foreign policy abroad, or the desperately unjust situation millions of people find themselves in in all sorts of other contexts. This point is about the likelihood of doctors having to tell the family members of vulnerable people that, “Sorry, there’s nothing we can do for them”, so they can concentrate on those with a higher chance of living.

 

Its hell on earth for all concerned if it happens.

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3 minutes ago, johnsusername said:

Tried to say to her - what if there was a food scare and some maniac was spiking tins of beans with cyanide? And 150 people a day were being killed? You wouldn't keep on buying beans so stop going to the fucking shops. 

 

I probably would keep buying beans tbh.

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27 minutes ago, mattyq said:

Just heard that one of my best mates is in intensive care at the JR in Oxford. His sister says he's got 2 days to respond to treatment or it's over. He's 41 with an 10 year old daughter

Sorry to hear this, matty. Hope he can pull through. I hadn’t seen your post when I wrote my response above. Really sorry if it seemed tasteless coming directly afterwards.

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15 minutes ago, johnsusername said:

Was on the phone to my mum yesterday. She's been to Sainsbury's (twice) and M and S in the last couple of days. She thinks the Coronavirus situation is "a load of rubbish". She's early 60s. 

 

Tried to say to her - what if there was a food scare and some maniac was spiking tins of beans with cyanide? And 150 people a day were being killed? You wouldn't keep on buying beans so stop going to the fucking shops. 

 

This analogy is harder to understand than 'stay at home so you don't spread a killer virus.'

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10 minutes ago, Lizzie Birdsworths Wrinkled Chopper said:

Obviously. This is the sort of heartbreaking decision doctors have been having to make in Italy and Spain for weeks. Literally deciding who they don’t even try to save.

 

They’ve had to talk of setting an age threshold to let people into intensive care. As we likely will imminently. Not leaving them with ventilators until they’re better or die even when on one til the last moment. Not intubating them. Even letting them in the door and trying to treat them.

 

Its kind of why there’s a big move to get everyone to stay indoors to slow the rate of transmission and stay that way until it’s safe to lift restrictions, as otherwise a lot of vulnerable people who might be saved under normal circumstances will die if everyone gets it at once, as has been happening around the world.

 

PS: This isn’t about UK foreign policy abroad, or the desperately unjust situation millions of people find themselves in in all sorts of other contexts. This point is about the likelihood of doctors having to tell the family members of vulnerable people that, “Sorry, there’s nothing we can do for them”, so they can they can concentrate on those with a higher chance of living.

 

Its hell on earth for all concerned if it happens.

Good point, well said as always. I understand what your saying about the human cost and the pain involved, I know my argument can sound cold hearted but there is dare I say it, a bigger/ longer  picture. I e. Human rights could be tossed aside, other mainstream services lost forever. It's an awful situation but the long term can end up being more frightening.

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35 minutes ago, mattyq said:

Just heard that one of my best mates is in intensive care at the JR in Oxford. His sister says he's got 2 days to respond to treatment or it's over. He's 41 with an 10 year old daughter


Got everything crossed for your mate, Matty. 

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7 minutes ago, Jennings said:

 

This analogy is harder to understand than 'stay at home so you don't spread a killer virus.'

To be fair the simple message isn't working. In fact I don't think she's done this much shopping in her life. 

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2 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

The buses are now only one an hour! The bus companies are loving this. Their ambition so far as I can gather as a long-suffering user of public transport is to run no buses whatsoever. Getting closer to that dream.

I'm not usually one to leap to their defence, but even the likes of Arriva and Stagecoach are actually getting nervous about their financial future. 

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24 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Good point, well said as always. I understand what your saying about the human cost and the pain involved, I know my argument can sound cold hearted but there is dare I say it, a bigger/ longer  picture. I e. Human rights could be tossed aside, other mainstream services lost forever. It's an awful situation but the long term can end up being more frightening.

I get those things may be the case mate, but they’re not worse than dying. They’re just not. In terms of this virus existing and spreading, it is what it is. It’s here now and we need to react in the best, most pragmatic way possible to stop it. In my opinion it (COVID-19) needs to be shown the greatest of respect and mitigated/avoided at all costs. Similar to how if an uncontrollable fire was burning through your neighbourhood, you wouldn’t stand in its path for fear the government were being handed a charter to force people from their homes in future non-lethal circumstances.

 

Are we woefully unprepared for it? Yep. Has the way our society and especially health service have been run down in particularly the past 10 years contributed to that? Absolutely. Is a serious period of reflection then transformation required domestically and globally, to find a better way to live with and care about what happens to one another, so people aren’t so vulnerable and greater focus is given to value and quality of life than cost? 100%.
 

Unfortunately though, at the moment we just need to stem the bleeding. However dystopian the risk of losing things we currently enjoy as staples of our normal life may be. Obviously all only my personal view. I get others have their own opinions, so apologies if I’m being self-righteous.
 

Watching the relative degradation of our health service up close under normal circumstances for a very long time and then seeing the devastating affects of this in other countries has just got to me when I think about what is highly likely-inevitable to be coming. Apart from everything else there is to consider on the human cost side, having the remarkable souls who man our NHS effectively used as cannon-fodder is turning my stomach.

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2 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

I'm not usually one to leap to their defence, but even the likes of Arriva and Stagecoach are actually getting nervous about their financial future. 

 

Good, the bus routes should be nationalised and subsidised.

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7 minutes ago, Lizzie Birdsworths Wrinkled Chopper said:

I get those things may be the case mate, but they’re not worse than dying. They’re just not. In terms of this virus existing and spreading, it is what it is. It’s here now and we need to react in the best, most pragmatic way possible to stop it. In my opinion it (COVID-19) needs to be shown the greatest of respect and mitigated/avoided at all costs. Similar to how if an uncontrollable fire was burning through your neighbourhood, you wouldn’t stand in its path for fear the government were being handed a charter to force people from their homes in future non-lethal circumstances.

 

Are we woefully unprepared for it? Yep. Has the way our society and especially health service have been run down in particularly the past 10 years contributed to that? Absolutely. Is a serious period of reflection then transformation required domestically and globally, to find a better way to live with and care about what happens to one another, so people aren’t so vulnerable and greater focus is given to value and quality of life than cost? 100%.
 

Unfortunately though, at the moment we just need to stem the bleeding. However dystopian the risk of losing things we currently enjoy as staples of our normal life may be. Obviously all only my personal view. I get others have their own opinions, so apologies if I’m being self-righteous.
 

Watching the relative degradation of our health service up close under normal circumstances for a very long time and then seeing the devastating affects of this in other countries has just got to me when I think about what is highly likely-inevitable to be coming. Apart from everything else there is to consider on the human cost side, having the remarkable souls who man our NHS effectively used as cannon-fodder is turning my stomach.

Yes I understand what your saying and in the short term its impossible to disagree, I understand the hurt of lives lost and the fear and pain but we cannot let this virus be an excuse for political forces/police/establishment to endorse and enforce a martial law by stealth. These basic rights were not given, they were hard fought and when this horrible virus is defeated the rights and services that stand in this country should and must be still in place. Otherwise the good the great and virus wins.

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