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68 bed emergency field hospital in Central Park equipped with ICU and respirators. Operational by Tuesday morning.

 

EUS45yqWoAAPVGn.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Isn’t herd immunity- with a vaccine - the ultimate goal? So the virus has no one to leap to and therefore dies out? 

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1 minute ago, Rico1304 said:

Isn’t herd immunity- with a vaccine - the ultimate goal? So the virus has no one to leap to and therefore dies out? 

Yes I think so, i believe it creates a firewall to protect the vulnerable as it cannot leap around new victims.

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7 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Isn’t herd immunity- with a vaccine - the ultimate goal? So the virus has no one to leap to and therefore dies out? 

Yes. To try and do it by letting the disease run through a population sounds extremely risky, especially as we don't know why it predominantly kills those 50 and over. For example, could there be a cohort of people in younger age groups who have the same vulnerable characteristic(s) but haven't been subjected to the infection as yet?

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11 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Yes. To try and do it by letting the disease run through a population sounds extremely risky, especially as we don't know why it predominantly kills those 50 and over. For example, could there be a cohort of people in younger age groups who have the same vulnerable characteristic(s) but haven't been subjected to the infection as yet?

I thought the reason it mainly kills the over 70s is because in most cases it is not strong enough to kill someone virile and in good health. It also attacks the respiratory system and the respiratory system in older people is generally weaker, plus it mainly kills people with other underlying symptoms. I may of course be underestimating the virus.

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3 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Sickening disregard for human life. 

I dont know. a kid comes into contact with the virus, becomes infected, gets tested, stays home for so many days then can no longer pass it on to an older more vulnerable person. The virus eventually has nowhere to go. I think that's the plan.

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3 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I dont know. a kid comes into contact with the virus, becomes infected, gets tested, stays home for so many days then can no longer pass it on to an older more vulnerable person. The virus eventually has nowhere to go. I think that's the plan.

Well the main problem is that it appears to be asymptomatic for a number of days and possibly during the entirety of the infection, so the younger person could be passing it on to multiple vulnerable people before they even realise they have it.

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9 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Well the main problem is that it appears to be asymptomatic for a number of days and possibly during the entirety of the infection, so the younger person could be passing it on to multiple vulnerable people before they even realise they have it.

Yea true it's got a long incubation period, however I think ( I might be wrong) that they hope it will some run out of victims and the young can banish it quite quickly.  As a vacation seems way off if a 70 year old teacher has a choice in September of teaching 20 kids who have had the virus or 20 kids who havnt which is the safer option? 

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31 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

I dont know. a kid comes into contact with the virus, becomes infected, gets tested, stays home for so many days then can no longer pass it on to an older more vulnerable person. The virus eventually has nowhere to go. I think that's the plan.

I mean it might work, yeah. People have been dumbed down enough to vote for economic self harm with Brexit, maybe they'll be up for physical harm and death with herd immunity.  Count me out , though. I'll wait for the vaccine. 

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The thing with the herd immunity stuff is it’s a lot easier to volunteer strangers for it than to send your own into the breach and just cross your fingers they’re not one of the people who fare disastrously with the virus.

 

Its a bit like the “Well, the planet needs a cull anyway” stuff you hear. Not yet met anyone popping their hand up to volunteer themselves, their parents or kids to be fed into the wood-chipper*.


* Mother-in-laws and spouses not included in this point.

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2 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

Are you assuming they're foreign because of their names? Wow.

Point scoring over deaths. 

 

But yeah SD is ok really. 

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1 hour ago, Gnasher said:

 

Quote

Perhaps two weeks from now, healthy people under 40 could return to work provided that they have no vulnerable people in their household. Perhaps a week after that, healthy people aged 40-50 could join them, and nurseries could reopen.

 

I think he sounds fucking mental.

 

 

This is highly likely to be wrong as well :

 

gD6bvcP.jpg

 

By the time it gets to October we should be way more prepared to deal with this and could be instantly ready to carry out mass testing and contact tracing (neither of which are even mentioned on the graph!) for anything that starts up again.

 

There's already talk of us getting hold of millions of testing kits shortly, even if that fails by the time October is here we'd surely have some form of doing this which means that the second surge in cases on that graph would no longer apply. The gov and health services would have a lot of extra knowledge of what has and hasn't worked in other countries by October as well, along with half a year to prepare for it.

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Another couple of bits on where this came from :

 

gD6bvcP.jpg

 

The report states that :

Quote

The measures used to achieve suppression might also evolve over time. As case numbers fall, it becomes more feasible to adopt intensive testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures akin to the strategies being employed in South Korea today.

 

But it's only brought up right at the end of the report as a suggestion in the discussion section.

 

And this is from The Guardian on the early strategy of the Imperial College and modelling in general :

 

Quote

The modelling from Imperial College that underpinned the government’s belief that the nation could ride out the epidemic by letting the infection sweep through, creating “herd immunity” on the way, was more troubling.


The model, based on 13-year-old code for a long-feared influenza pandemic, assumed that the demand for intensive care units would be the same for both infections. Data from China soon showed this to be dangerously wrong, but the model was only updated when more data poured out of Italy, where intensive care was swiftly overwhelmed and deaths shot up.

Nor was that the only shortcoming of the Imperial model. It did not consider the impact of widespread rapid testing, contact tracing and isolation, which can be used in the early stages of an epidemic or in lockdown conditions to keep infections down to such an extent that when restrictions are lifted the virus should not rebound.

It is not a question of whether models are flawed but in which ways are they flawed, and models can still be enormously valuable if their shortcomings are appreciated. As with other sources of information, however, they should never be used alone.

“Models are a useful input among many when you are doing public policy, but you have to use triangulation. You have to look across different sources of information and not just rely on one. It’s more messy and complex than just saying ‘OK here’s a number’, but you get to a more accurate answer for our world,” Sridhar said.

Never have the words of the British statistician George Box rung truer than in this pandemic: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-exposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

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