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Just now, Pidge said:

Because it's based on a time series updated daily and the data from China and other countries are still emerging.

 

The methodology, including the limitations and the clear acceptance that it's a limited model to track progress against, is right there in the thread.

Okay. Well I call shenanigans and think he's talking bollocks. Do you agree with the central stat of his hypothesis that there will be a total of 5,700 deaths?

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5 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Do you agree with Prof Pike? Yes or no will suffice, don't do your usual dodge the question shite. 

 

I've never dodged a question in my life. Now it's only a model, which necessarily carries its own limitations, but put it this way - I think his predictions are far nearer the mark than yours.

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5 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Okay. Well I call shenanigans and think he's talking bollocks. Do you agree with the central stat of his hypothesis that there will be a total of 5,700 deaths?

That isn't his hypothesis. His hypothesis is that, if the trend in other countries follows the reported trends from elsewhere (primarily China) - on the assumption of observed social distancing, that would be the total. 

 

He is not claiming that to be the only possible scenario, or necessarily what will happen in reality. Based on the information I've read, I have seen nothing to suggest the maths is wrong. But I haven't dug through it in detail, nor will I.

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Just now, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

I've never dodged a question in my life. And put it this way, I think his predictions are far nearer the mark than yours.

I haven't made a prediction.

 

I'll take your answer as a yes, though. 

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10 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

Scary times, stay safe. 8pm door steps clapping in support of the NHS workers. Dont be shy, make it so.

We did this last week. Still stuck indoors like. 

 

 

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Just now, Pidge said:

That isn't his hypothesis. His hypothesis is that, if the trend in other countries follows the reported trends from elsewhere (primarily China) - on the assumption of observed social distancing, that would be the total. 

 

He is not claiming that to be the only possible scenario, or necessarily what will happen in reality.

5,700 is still bollocks.  I'll eat my mask live on TLW if it's anywhere near that.  Italy has already exceeded that number, what makes us so special?

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3 minutes ago, TK421 said:

I haven't made a prediction.

 

I'll take your answer as a yes, though. 

 

Right, well for someone who hasn't made a prediction, you seem to be predicting that his figures are well below the mark, to the extent that you're prepared to consume your precious medical gear if he's right.

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1 minute ago, TK421 said:

5,700 is still bollocks.  I'll eat my mask live on TLW if it's anywhere near that.  Italy has already exceeded that number, what makes us so special?


Italy was hit first. It had a longer period of virus spreading undetected.

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1 minute ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Right, well for someone who hasn't made a prediction, you seem to be predicting that his figures are well below the mark, to the extent that you're prepared to consume your precious medical gear if he's right.

Absolutely. He's way off the mark, I've no problem saying that.  

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1 minute ago, SasaS said:


Italy was hit first. It had a longer period of virus spreading undetected.

Very wishful thinking. Do you agree with Prof Pike's prediction?

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4 minutes ago, TK421 said:

5,700 is still bollocks.  I'll eat my mask live on TLW if it's anywhere near that.  Italy has already exceeded that number, what makes us so special?

As more people are tested that number will rise and the modelling will reflect that, probably with a higher total.  At some point the rate of testing will catch up with the rate of new cases and the model will level out with a final answer.

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Just now, TK421 said:

Very wishful thinking. Do you agree with Prof Pike's prediction?

 

I don't know. It depends on the reaction at a particular stage of the epidemic. There are far too many unknowns in these models, they assume reporting is correct or representative, which it almost ceartainly isn't. If the UK can limit the spread to under 2% of total population, it can be achieved.

 

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There's some proper shite turn outs for this gash #clapfornhs. Went out to rake in the applause and nobody was out in our street.

 

Twats.

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1 minute ago, Pidge said:

As more people are tested that number will rise and the modelling will reflect that, probably with a higher total.  At some point the rate of testing will catch up with the rate of new cases and the model will level out with a final answer.

Right, and it won't be anywhere near 5,700.  

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1 minute ago, TK421 said:

Right, and it won't be anywhere near 5,700.  

We don't know that yet. Doesn't make his modelling "bollocks".

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Hadn't heard about this clapping thing so I googled "clap NHS" and the 4th entry down was:

 

Gonorrhoea is a sexually transmitted infection (STI) caused by bacteria called Neisseria gonorrhoeae or gonococcus. It used to be known as 'the clap'.
 
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It doesn't matter what the government says are the final deaths from.this virus, they're cooking the books and plenty will die from it that aren't officially diagnosed. The fact they've altered how they're recording the numbers part way through already tells you they hold zero value. 

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Kind of ironic seeing Johnson coming out and clapping plus loads of Tory MP’s on Twitter praising the NHS staff when it wasn’t that long ago...

 

Watch the moment Tory MPs cheered blocking a pay rise for nurses and firefighters

 

Every Conservative except one voted against the bid, accusing Jeremy Corbyn's party of playing politics and "milking the NHS for votes"

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/watch-moment-tories-cheered-blocking-10707293.amp?__twitter_impression=true

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