Coronavirus

[Jenson]

15 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

SARS was 3 times more contagious.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382925/

 

Which then begs the question as to why covid has run riot around the world when SARS did not? (I do not know the answer to this btw).

[Bjornebye]

20 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

SARS was 3 times more contagious.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382925/

Have you actually read that? 

[Rico1304]

6 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Have you actually read that? 

I can read it. But reading it and understanding it are completely different!  

[3 Stacks]

1 hour ago, Spy Bee said:

SARS was 3 times more contagious.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382925/

Well, given that on February 1st 2020, there were almost as many reported Covid cases as there had been SARS cases in its totality, excuse me if I don't really give a fuck about SARS' R0 number. 

[Jenson]

According to that article (which was published in September last year so is probably already miles out of date), the R0 of SARS "in the absence of intervention and control measures" was approx. 3.

 

Also in the article:

"Designating [Covid19] cases on the Japanese cruise ship Diamond Princess as a group, the R0 value was about 2.28 at the beginning of the outbreak. Another analysis of over 400 cases confirmed in Wuhan estimated that the R0 value was 2.2."

 

Still leaves the question as to the severity of the epidemic caused by covid19 compared to SARS.

 

[Bjornebye]

Apart from the initial wave the scariest bit for me was the post xmas spike. Fully proving that lockdowns had curbed the virus and opening it back up for a Christmas free for all contributed to the biggest daily death tolls we had ever had from it. How people can't just acknowledge that lockdowns made a positive impact is a fucking mystery. 

[Mudface]

1 hour ago, Spy Bee said:

SARS was 3 times more contagious.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382925/

 

55 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Have you actually read that? 

I've read through the second section and flicked through the rest, I can't see where it says SARS is 3x more contagious.

 

R0 indicates the average number of additional infections among fully susceptible people. In the absence of intervention and control measures, the R0 of SARS was about 3. Without effective public health intervention, the epidemic spread continuously and widely [25]. The R0 of COVID-19 is also large. Designating cases on the Japanese cruise ship Diamond Princess as a group, the R0 value was about 2.28 at the beginning of the outbreak. Another analysis of over 400 cases confirmed in Wuhan estimated that the R0 value was 2.2. Like SARS, COVID-19 has an R0 greater than 1 and is highly contagious [26,27]. The study on the ability of interhuman transmissibility of MERS showed that in most pessimistic scenario, the R0 of MERS in secondary cases was about 0.69 [28], A similar study estimated that without control, the range of R0 values for MERS was 0.8–1.3 [29]. R0 values for MERS was much lower than the epidemic threshold and did not show a trend of a continuous epidemic. However, during hospital outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and South Korea, the R0 of MERS was estimated to be 2–5, possibly since nosocomial infection could be transmitted not only by contact but also by aerosol contrary to community-acquired infection [30]. The above-mentioned R0 is mainly used for human-to-human transmission and R0 varies when used in host-to-human transmission.

 

There's also this, which contradicts it several times- https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9/fulltext

 

The new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is less deadly but far more transmissible than MERS-CoV or SARS-CoV. The virus emerged in December, 2019, and as of June 29, 2020, 6 months into the first pandemic wave, the global count is rapidly approaching 10 million known cases and has passed 500 000 deaths.4 Because of its broad clinical spectrum and high transmissibility, eradicating SARS-CoV-2, as was done with SARS-CoV in 2003, does not seem a realistic goal in the short term.

 

 

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Apart from the initial wave the scariest bit for me was the post xmas spike. Fully proving that lockdowns had curbed the virus and opening it back up for a Christmas free for all contributed to the biggest daily death tolls we had ever had from it. How people can't just acknowledge that lockdowns made a positive impact is a fucking mystery. 

The post-Christmas spike was more of a weary, 'fuckin' knew it' shrug for me. You could see it starting to happen from way back in late July/ August when things were relaxed, smoothly accelerating through September, being curtailed by the (far too late) October circuit breaker, then just booming away until Johnson finally shat himself in January.

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, Mudface said:

The post-Christmas spike was more of a weary, 'fuckin' knew it' shrug for me. You could see it starting to happen from way back in late July/ August when things were relaxed, smoothly accelerating through September, being curtailed by the (far too late) October circuit breaker, then just booming away until Johnson finally shat himself in January.

It was how aggressive the spike was mate. Strontz inadvertently got the graph he drew with his poo pretty much spot on. I honestly started to concede that this thing might never go away and by go away I mean never stop killing people in the hundreds a day in the UK. We all knew it would happen and we will see another spike I reckon after the kids go back. Let's hope and pray the vaccines start to properly show their worth. 

[Mudface]

Just now, Bjornebye said:

It was how aggressive the spike was mate. Strontz inadvertently got the graph he drew with his poo pretty much spot on. I honestly started to concede that this thing might never go away and by go away I mean never stop killing people in the hundreds a day in the UK. We all knew it would happen and we will see another spike I reckon after the kids go back. Let's hope and pray the vaccines start to properly show their worth. 

Yeah, true. Thinking back, it did get pretty hairy towards the end of Jan (I think) when the numbers in hospital and on ventilators just kept on rising and rising. 

[Bjornebye]

4 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Yeah, true. Thinking back, it did get pretty hairy towards the end of Jan (I think) when the numbers in hospital and on ventilators just kept on rising and rising. 

Exactly mate. 

[3 Stacks]

26 minutes ago, Jenson said:

According to that article (which was published in September last year so is probably already miles out of date), the R0 of SARS "in the absence of intervention and control measures" was approx. 3.

 

Also in the article:

"Designating [Covid19] cases on the Japanese cruise ship Diamond Princess as a group, the R0 value was about 2.28 at the beginning of the outbreak. Another analysis of over 400 cases confirmed in Wuhan estimated that the R0 value was 2.2."

 

Still leaves the question as to the severity of the epidemic caused by covid19 compared to SARS.

 

Yeah, the better way to say it is SARS was controllable through intervention, Covid clearly was not. SARS didn't "burn itself out". Contagious viruses clearly don't do that within a period of months. 

 

As you say, the question is why was that so for SARS and not for Covid.

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, 3 Stacks said:

Yeah, the better way to say it is SARS was controllable through intervention, Covid clearly was not. SARS didn't "burn itself out". Contagious viruses clearly don't do that within a period of months. 

 

As you say, the question is why was that so for SARS and not for COVID.

I think the main advantage Covid 19 has is that you get a lot of asymptomatic cases and people are also infectious before symptoms develop, which makes the spread extremely difficult to control. Additionally, it doesn't kill people quickly or in as large numbers as SARS or other real nasties, so it the potential spread can be maximised.

[3 Stacks]

Just now, Mudface said:

I think the main advantage Covid 19 has is that you get a lot of asymptomatic cases and people are also infectious before symptoms develop, which makes the spread extremely difficult to control. Additionally, it doesn't kill people quickly or in as large numbers as SARS or other real nasties, so it the potential spread can be maximised.

The study you posted offers this:

 

In a study from Hong Kong, high viral loads were found in the first samples obtained after admission to hospital. This finding was confirmed in a study from China, which found a high viral load at the onset of symptoms that declined in the following 5–6 days. This quick decline in the viral load makes isolation and quarantine of patients with SARS-CoV-2 and their contacts much more challenging and less effective, as it has to be done as soon as possible after illness onset in order to reduce transmission. By contrast, for SARS-CoV viral loads peaked at 6–11 days after symptom onset allowing a full extra week to identify and isolate cases before transmission occurred. This difference would in part explain why SARS could be eradicated in 2003 compared with the trajectory seen in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

[Bjornebye]

Covid killed more people in an hour than SARS did in its whole career. 

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, 3 Stacks said:

The study you posted offers this:

 

In a study from Hong Kong, high viral loads were found in the first samples obtained after admission to hospital. This finding was confirmed in a study from China, which found a high viral load at the onset of symptoms that declined in the following 5–6 days. This quick decline in the viral load makes isolation and quarantine of patients with SARS-CoV-2 and their contacts much more challenging and less effective, as it has to be done as soon as possible after illness onset in order to reduce transmission. By contrast, for SARS-CoV viral loads peaked at 6–11 days after symptom onset allowing a full extra week to identify and isolate cases before transmission occurred. This difference would in part explain why SARS could be eradicated in 2003 compared with the trajectory seen in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Damn thing must be weaponised...

[magicrat]

20 hours ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

We've had planes all winter, the law didn't stop second home owners coming over, they argue they are doing 'essential work' on the maintenance of their properties.  We also have loads of builders coming over to do work for businesses.  But there has been lots of LF tests, and thats down to responsible businesses insisting on it. It only takes 1 person to start a chain reaction here, and we're all acutely aware of it.  That said, we have our fill of Covid deniers and loons. 

Fair enough, I was on St Mary's in the summer and saw how well organised and serious businesses were in protecting people'. I can't speak for what goes on in the winter there. My point was simply that the IOS is a different world in comparison with the urban mainland where cuntish behaviour is everywhere ,not just in respect of COVID. To escape that is one of the reasons I love going there so much. 

[magicrat]

19 hours ago, Jairzinho said:

I think a lot of people and I suppose by people I mean largely "common garden variety window lickers" take their cue from the government. If they see chaos, or corruption, or mixed messaging, some of them won't comply. Or they will for a while then fuck it off. 

 

I suppose it's a bit chicken and egg but I think there are very few countries with reasonably competent and consistent governments that have a large quantity of people not following the rules. 

Undoubtedly mate . Cummings eye rest being a prime example of cunt behaviour at the top gives the green light to the masses that the rules are not meant to be taken seriously. 

[Gnasher]

58 minutes ago, magicrat said:

Undoubtedly mate . Cummings eye rest being a prime example of cunt behaviour at the top gives the green light to the masses that the rules are not meant to be taken seriously. 

How many have caught covid and died during the past year through shaking hands?

 

A year ago yesterday.. Boris the Bonzo

 

 

 

[magicrat]

2 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

How many have caught covid and died during the past year through shaking hands?

 

A year ago yesterday.. Boris the Bonzo

 

 

 

Regrettably he recovered

[Rico1304]

Ivermectin doesn’t seem to work. 
 

 

[Colonel Bumcunt]

3 hours ago, magicrat said:

Fair enough, I was on St Mary's in the summer and saw how well organised and serious businesses were in protecting people'. I can't speak for what goes on in the winter there. My point was simply that the IOS is a different world in comparison with the urban mainland where cuntish behaviour is everywhere ,not just in respect of COVID. To escape that is one of the reasons I love going there so much. 

You booked?

[magicrat]

Just now, Colonel Bumcunt said:

You booked?

We were lucky we had a booking for mid July which we didn't cancel and lock down was lifted just in time. Lucky to grab a couple of flights at short notice too. Scillonian was booked up due to reduced capacity. 

[Colonel Bumcunt]

5 minutes ago, magicrat said:

We were lucky we had a booking for mid July which we didn't cancel and lock down was lifted just in time. Lucky to grab a couple of flights at short notice too. Scillonian was booked up due to reduced capacity. 

You coming this year?

[magicrat]

2 minutes ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

You coming this year?

Hopefully but got a lot of family stuff going on atm so not sure we will be able to make our June booking and changing dates is v difficult given the fact half the country seems to want holidays in the UK atm