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Coronavirus


Bjornebye

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34 minutes ago, Brownie said:

Those figures coming out of Israel are massively encouraging with regards to the Pfizer vaccine but my instinct is to be sceptical about trusting the data? Please tell me i'm wrong.

We should be sceptical that Israel's data on Pfizer will apply to the UK seeing as though they have followed the manufacturers, and the BMA and the WHO's, guidance while the UK hasn't.

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Here come the leaks!!!

 

Not much is changing, so don’t get excited, it’s going to be a long few months! 

 

Mass testing is oddly missing though.

 

FOUR STEPS TO FREEDOM: So, what exactly will Johnson be announcing today? Downing Street last night confirmed the details of only the first bit of the four-step plan, with the other three held back for the PM’s statement. Here’s what we know for sure, and what we’ll have to wait until 3.30 p.m. to find out.

 

STEP 1: Is actually really made up of two steps: March 8 and March 29.

 

March 8All schools will go back. Outdoors after school sports and activities can restart. One-on-one recreation in public spaces such as parks will be permitted, so two people can sit for a coffee, drink or picnic. (This is currently illegal, not that half of London is paying attention.) Playbook confidence rating: Confirmed.

 

March 29Here’s the big news of the morning so far: From March 29, when the Easter school holidays begin, the government will permit more outdoor social contact. The rule of six will return, meaning six people from up to six households will be able to meet up outside, either in public places or in private gardens. Two households of any size will also be allowed to meet up outside. Also: Outdoor sports facilities such as tennis, basketball courts and golf courses will reopen. Organized adult and children’s sport such as grassroots football can also return. Playbook confidence rating: Confirmed.

 

The reasoning: March 8 is the date at which the top four vaccine priority cohorts should have protection against the virus, so ministers feel it’s justified to open up schools. As for the March 29relaxation, No. 10 says: “Outdoor settings are known to be lower risk than indoor, so outdoor activities will be opened earlier than indoor ones.” A Downing Street official tells Playbook they wanted to prioritize allowing families to meet up, including allowing grandparents to see grandchildren, and allowing flexibility for families where different children live with different parents or relatives. A government source tells the Guardian’s Jess Elgot it’s a “trade-off” to allow people to see friends and family earlier if parts of the economy remain closed.

New messaging: The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith says the government will drop its “stay at home” order from March 29, when outdoor activities are permitted. Playbook confidence rating: I mean, makes sense.


END OF THE TIER SHOW: The regional tiered system of varying restrictions is dead, Downing Street signaled overnight. “Due to the current, relatively uniform spread of the virus across the country, restrictions will be eased step-by-step across the whole of England at the same time,” No. 10 said. Playbook confidence rating: Confirmed, for the meantime at least.


FOUR TESTS TO PROGRESS: A Downing Street official tells Playbook that Johnson will only put concrete dates on the first step (so, March 8 and March 29). For steps two, three and four, the PM will give “no earlier than” dates — i.e. the earliest date at which England can enter the next phase. In order to decide when exactly it can progress, Johnson will use four new tests:

1: The vaccine program is continuing successfully.

2: Data is showing the vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths.

3: Infection rates do not risk putting unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

4: The risk assessment is not changed by new Variants of Concern. Playbook confidence rating: These four tests have been confirmed by No. 10.

 

They raise some questions: Off the top of Playbook’s head … What level of reduction in hospitalizations and deaths would mean the vaccines are deemed “sufficiently effective?” How low do they want case numbers to fall? What’s the plan if a Variant of Concern becomes More Concerning? Er, where is testing in this roadmap? And — if the priority is letting people see family — will ministers allow for family members who live in different parts of the country to meet up?

 

NEXT STEPS: The reality is Johnson’s cautious roadmap means that — schools aside — life is not going to look massively different for many Britons for at least five weeks, and even then the relaxation of outdoor rules will only make legal what many will have already been doing on the sly. The real question is what is coming in steps two, three and four — and when are they likely? We’ll have to wait until the PM’s statement to know the answer, but here’s what the Lobby’s finest soothsayers are predicting …


STEP 2: On around April 12-19. He says (perhaps hopefully) that hairdressers will be allowed to reopen. He also reckons non-essential shops will be back, and that restaurants and pubs will be able to serve outdoors. The Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith says shops and outdoor serving will come in April, but hairdressers won’t open until May. The Guardian’s Jess Elgot says late April. The Times’Olly Wright reckons shops could be open and self-catering U.K. holiday rentals allowed in time for Easter. But Times Radio’s Tom Newton Dunn fears the “latest thinking” is that step two won’t arrive until May.

 

STEP 3: Indoor entertainment and hospitality will return in May, including gyms and cinemas. Riley-Smith and Elgot also reckon indoor serving in pubs and restaurants will be back in May. Alas the more pessimistic TND reckons we’ll have to wait until June.


STEP 4: Household mixing will not be allowed until June — over three more months away. He also says June will see (some) fans back in stadiums and U.K. holidays allowed. Riley-Smith says the same on staycations. Playbook confidence rating: Wait until 3.30 p.m.and definitely don’t keep score and see which hack got it most wrong.


TORY REACTION: Sunak, who has traditionally been the most lockdown-skeptic senior Cabinet minister, seems on board with the not-exactly-rapid roadmap. But the COVID Recovery Group of Tory backbenchers is already demanding a quicker route out. Forty MPs led by the CRG’s Mark Harper and Steve Baker are calling on Johnson to reopen hospitality by Easter. They’re backed by various voices from the hospitality industry, including Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, who says: “With the vaccine rollout continuing apace, now is the time to commit to reopening our pubs in a commercially viable way so that thousands of communities and businesses up and down the country can begin to emerge from this crisis.”

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4 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

If the science backs the plan I'm all for it.  Surely the vaccine plan means we can start to introduce normality a bit. 

It would appear that the science doesn't back all schools returning on 8th March at least, so it's anyone's guess how much science is involved in these decisions.  Political/economical decisions as always I expect.

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7 minutes ago, Moo said:

It would appear that the science doesn't back all schools returning on 8th March at least, so it's anyone's guess how much science is involved in these decisions.  Political/economical decisions as always I expect.

 

Yeah, the scientists, unions and even Starmer yesterday, reading between the lines are saying 'only when it's safe' and it doesn't appear to be fully safe as they're asking for staggered returns, mass testing, vaccinating teachers and/or 'Nightingale' schools to help, none of these are covered by the leaks, so it's a political decision.

 

Everything else is dependant on the schools working and it looks like they are playing fast and loose with advice, again.

 

Time will tell, I guess...

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8 minutes ago, johnsusername said:

Well if all schools are reopening on March 8th then that means most people will fuck off the rest of the rules. Because what's the point in having your kids mingle with hundreds of other kids each day but still having to stay at home without seeing anyone else all weekend? 

 

Exactly. The only way schools should be open is that if there is evidence that kids cant carry/spread covid, or at least do so at a vastly reduced rate. Otherwise, why should an adult go months without seeing a friend or their family when their kids are in classrooms 5 days a week?

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51 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

If the science backs the plan I'm all for it.  Surely the vaccine plan means we can start to introduce normality a bit. 

I think it will be a cautious move forward , but it has to be a move forward , as a lot of the self employed and those working in non-essential retail / pubs etc have been devastated for getting on for a year now and surely the effects of the vaccine rollout must be taken into account.

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35 minutes ago, Moo said:

Who is this? Just wondering before I invest half an hour in it as I'm interested in the subject matter.

Blurb from his youtube page - 

 

 

Hello Everyone, My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focused on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

 

 

I've found him to be comfortably the most sensible commentator on the coronavirus.

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35 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

Blurb from his youtube page - 

 

 

Hello Everyone, My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focused on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

 

 

I've found him to be comfortably the most sensible commentator on the coronavirus.

Thanks.  I think I've seen one of his other videos, on vitamin D and it was delivered in a calm and informative manner.  Am I right in saying he simply presents other people's research rather than interprets or does his own?  If so that's no bad thing at all.

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2 hours ago, Jairzinho said:

Re the one dose vaccine plan with Pfizer - 

 

 

Just watched it (the first section re Pfizer vaccine).  Not sure if I am missing something but there appears to be no data presented re 12 weeks on a single dose?  There is reference to efficacy staying high from between 9 weeks and 6 months but it doesn't specifically say that this timeframe was tested on a single dose, more a continued assumption based on a very impressive efficacy at 3 weeks. 

I don't think there's anything new in here, of course I could be missing something.

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1 hour ago, Moo said:

Just watched it (the first section re Pfizer vaccine).  Not sure if I am missing something but there appears to be no data presented re 12 weeks on a single dose?  There is reference to efficacy staying high from between 9 weeks and 6 months but it doesn't specifically say that this timeframe was tested on a single dose, more a continued assumption based on a very impressive efficacy at 3 weeks. 

I don't think there's anything new in here, of course I could be missing something.

No, there isn't much new. Nor could there be as far as I'm aware. And you're correct it's just a reanalysis of the existing data.

 

I think it was more just a response to misleading stuff in the press about the Pfizer vaccine not being effective at three weeks, which simply isn't true. 

 

I believe Israel are doing/have done something in between the UK and the rest of Europe's strategy so there might be more data fairly soon. We might have concrete proof of efficacy levels after six or nine weeks or whatever. 

 

Personally, as long as the number of people ending up in hospital is minute then the strategy has been a success. The rest of Europe is fucking around doing almost nothing while people are dying unnecessarily. 

 

I'm not for one minute suggesting the rest of the UK's response has been good. It hasn't, it's been atrocious.

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