Coronavirus

[TheHowieLama]

Whatever, he is right, at some point it will have just been a bump in the road. 

 

 

[Strontium]

1 minute ago, Rico1304 said:

Fuck me, back in Feb when it was a brand new virus people didn’t know everything about it! 
 

very disingenuous stronts. Poor form.

 

You might have the germ of a point if I wasn't being hauled over the coals for things I wrote months ago. The double standard is extraordinary.

 

Maybe people shouldn't make such bold claims in the first place? Just a thought.

[Rico1304]

1 minute ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

You might have the germ of a point if I wasn't being hauled over the coals for things I wrote months ago. The double standard is extraordinary.

 

Maybe people shouldn't make such bold claims in the first place? Just a thought.

Hold on, I’ve not be involved in any of this.  In October (not months ago) you said you’d be happy to concede a second wave if deaths, not cases, increased. That’s fair enough based on increased testing.  
 

To try and claim ignorance and quote claims made in February is disingenuous in the extreme.  

[TheHowieLama]

14 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

disingenuous in the extreme.  

No idea how they didn't get in  @Code??

 

 

 

[Strontium]

15 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Hold on, I’ve not be involved in any of this.  In October (not months ago) you said you’d be happy to concede a second wave if deaths, not cases, increased. That’s fair enough based on increased testing.  
 

To try and claim ignorance and quote claims made in February is disingenuous in the extreme.  

 

I made the statement about conceding I was wrong if there was a second wave (constituting a large increase in deaths and hospitalisations, according to the agreed definition) on August 10th.

[TheHowieLama]

Recorded:

 

The second wave (of which there is none) must be higher - disclaimer (deaths AND hospitalizations) than that of the first wave (which - Lockdowns/China).

[Rico1304]

12 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

I made the statement about conceding I was wrong if there was a second wave (constituting a large increase in deaths and hospitalisations, according to the agreed definition) on August 10th.

Apologies - it was 6 months, not 8 months later.  
 

So, is 1-200 large enough? 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

I'm still laughing at that delayed first wave shout. 

 

Amazing. 

[Moo]

If this was the description of more than one wave:

 

 ...the virus would have to be controlled and transmission brought down to a very low level. That would be the end of the first wave. Then, the virus would need to reappear and result in a large increase in cases and hospitalizations.

 

 

Would we currently be in a second wave?

I'm not sure.  Was it brought down to a low enough level to consider the first wave over?

 

[TheHowieLama]

#firstwaves

[cochyn]

As much as I hate to break up the bickering (almost as much as trawling through 1864 pages of debate...) 

 

Genuine question: How comfortable is the forum with the American National Institute of Health's (NIH) funding  of Bat Coronavirus in Humans program which was undertaken largely by the Wuhan lab prior to this outbreak? Call me a cynic, but it's clearly a line of enquiry. 

 

If I were even more cynical, I'd suggest the USA has been complicit in selecting  foreign agents to undertake the type of research it's domestic agencies are prevented from doing on ethical grounds. 

 

Basically - getting other agencies with less transparent ethical barriers to do their dirty work and dressing it up as research?

 

Dunno....

[mattyq]

So what numbers are we talking about, SD? It feels a bit tasteless talking about people this way but if we get up too 500 deaths a day does that count?

Needless to say I hope we don't get anywhere near that number but I suspect we will

[Strontium]

1 hour ago, mattyq said:

So what numbers are we talking about, SD? It feels a bit tasteless talking about people this way but if we get up too 500 deaths a day does that count?

Needless to say I hope we don't get anywhere near that number but I suspect we will

 

500 would seem to be fairly unambiguously a second peak.

 

I think I'm being generous there, because we all know that when there was talk of second waves, everyone had in mind Spanish flu, where the second peak was MUCH higher than the first.

[TheHowieLama]

You have probably covered yourself up there fella, tremendous virtual work. And definitely what you have been suggesting for months now.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

That's fucking funny, considering I've been right about literally everything about this.

Right is the new wrong. 

[Mudface]

Looks like we're about up to the second bolded part in @Sugar Ape's post. When this was posted 5 weeks ago today, there were about 1100 patients in hospital, 138 were in ventilation beds and the rolling seven day average of daily deaths was under 17.  Yesterday, the equivalent figures were 7433 people in hospital, 711 patients on ventilation, and the rolling average hit 150 for the first time since the 9th of June. 

 

We're unlikely to get as bad as earlier in the year, unless these idiots start discharging patients into care homes again. It's still a hell of a leap though considering where we were barely 6 weeks ago.

On 18/09/2020 at 17:30, Sugar Ape said:

We went over 100 people on ventilators for the first time in a couple of months on 15th September. 127 on them now. Here’s my experience of what happens/will happen with the numbers though and it makes it pointless arguing daily on it to be honest with people who think like this.
 

So, a month/Six weeks ago we had:

 

“The cases aren’t rising, they’re going down so this is all a load of shit. Herd immunity, T-Cells etc...”

Cases then rise. 
 

“Well, they’re hardly rising much are they? Besides, they were bound to rise as we open things. Come back to me when they rise a lot.”

 

Cases then rise a lot. 
 

“Yeah but look at hospitalisations. They’re not going up at all. There are new strains of the virus, look at this orthodontist from Panama who thinks the virus is now less virulent. Come back to me when hospitalisations rise.”

 

Hospitalisations then rise. This is where we are currently. And this is how it’s going to go from here:

 

”Yeah, well it’s still really low numbers. More people in hospital from Flu! Come back to me when loads of people end up in hospital with it”

 

Loads of people end up in hospital with it. 
 

“Deaths are hardly going up at all though. We have much better treatments and it’s mainly young people catching it. Come back to me when it deaths go up a lot”

 

Deaths go up a lot. 
 

“Well we’ll just have to live with it I’m afraid. The cure is worse than the disease. What about all the people who can’t get cancer treatment (please note - in the reality they’ve created, people are more likely to get cancer treatment if we let hospitals get overwhelmed with Covid patients for some reason) mental health problems are sky high (purely as a result of lockdown and nothing to do with loads of people getting sick and dying) the economy is going to be fucked which is even worse than Covid (again, for some reason the assumption is that letting this run unchecked and loads of people become sick and dying of it doesn’t impact the economy negatively) look at - insert whatever country is currently experiencing a low number of cases with completely different demographics and lower population density - we should have followed them all along!

 

 

Very unlikely to chance anyone’s mind now. It’s like Brexit, people are entrenched in their camp and only time is going to tell who is right. But while we’re not sure who will be right, let’s err on the side of caution and not just assume things like people can’t get reinfected or have T-Cell immunity from other Coronaviruses. Let’s act on those things when it’s confirmed to be true. 

 

 

[johnsusername]

7 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

#firstwaves

 

[Bobby Hundreds]

Is it true Serco have nothing to do with the NHS track and trace app. I at least want my outrage to be factually correct.

[Bruce Spanner]

3 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

Is it true Serco have nothing to do with the NHS track and trace app. I at least want my outrage to be factually correct.

It wasn’t originally integrated, no.

 

The only data that was collected on the app was Serco, NHS was effectively doing its own T&T in house, with a much, much better contact rate. 
 

They’ve now stopped NHS doing it and it should all go through Serco, hence the drop off in contact, both primary and secondary.

[Creator Supreme]

1 minute ago, Bruce Spanner said:

It wasn’t originally integrated, no.

 

The only data that was collected on the app was Serco, NHS was effectively doing its own T&T in house, with a much, much better contact rate. 
 

They’ve now stopped NHS doing it and it should all go through Serco, hence the drop off in contact, both primary and secondary.

Jesus wept, they've always got to make a quid out of it haven't they, even to the detriment of the public's health!!

[Bruce Spanner]

3 minutes ago, Creator Supreme said:

Jesus wept, they've always got to make a quid out of it haven't they, even to the detriment of the public's health!!

They put a smear story out not long before they stopped using in house T&T saying the NHS was giving out the wrong advice.

 

Yes, qualified health professionals giving advice were hauled over the coals, but 18 year old history students on a gap year and Pam from Dudley in a call centre reading from a script is better, no?

[Section_31]

You only do two days in lockdowm, that's the day you go in, and the day you come out.

[Bruce Spanner]

4 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

You only do two days in lockdowm, that's the day you go in, and the day you come out.

Ive lost the ability to despair about today as I assume tomorrow will be worse. 
 

It’s Zen like.

[JohnnyH]

13 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Here's some of the early claims/predictions about mortality rates and numbers of deaths. Just from the first 15 pages or so of the thread.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't drag me into this.  My post from back in February at the start of this pandemic was stating what was being widely reported about 2% mortality rate and with it possibly being as high as 3% to the people saying "It's just the flu".  I made no claims or predictions. Just stated what was commonly reported knowledge at the time.  I've not quoted you, or had a go at you. So don't twist my comments from 10 months ago to suit some entrenched agenda please.

[Strontium]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyH said:

Don't drag me into this.  My post from back in February at the start of this pandemic was stating what was being widely reported about 2% mortality rate and with it possibly being as high as 3% to the people saying "It's just the flu".  I made no claims or predictions. Just stated what was commonly reported knowledge at the time.  I've not quoted you, or had a go at you. So don't twist my comments from 10 months ago to suit some entrenched agenda please.

 

I never said it was your prediction, I haven't twisted your comments. I simply quoted what you wrote. If only people would do me that courtesy.