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6 minutes ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

What was the posh cunt doing within a 40 metre radius of a bus stop.

Throwing cheesy chips at bus peasants probably 

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This continues to look shit. All these new measures are not going to be enough to get this back under control are they? We're getting the worst of both worlds, an effective lockdown where any socialising is banned, minimal financial support and the virus continues to rattle through the community. Fuck these incompetent Tory cunts. 

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2 minutes ago, mattyq said:

 

To be fair he wasn't too wrong..... Of course he seemed to have no prediction for what would getting back to normal will do, us getting the kids to school and the students back at uni. 

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27 minutes ago, Barrington Womble said:

This continues to look shit. All these new measures are not going to be enough to get this back under control are they? We're getting the worst of both worlds, an effective lockdown where any socialising is banned, minimal financial support and the virus continues to rattle through the community. Fuck these incompetent Tory cunts. 

Screenshot_20201019-102135.jpg

It really is the worth of boast worlds.

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I think we might be heading for some type of herd immunity here the way this is going that could eventually slow it down. Over 200k tests a day finding over 15k, but what if they did 500k tests? 1 million? Imagine the insane numbers of cases we could find then? What about the people who don't show any symptoms?

 

As we get through winter if this lack of dealing with it well enough carries on I'd guess that the virus will increasingly start losing the ability to spread because it keeps finding more and more people that have already had it?

 

I don't like the idea of trying to make predictions but where else do you arrive with these numbers? 66mil population in the UK, 15k cases from the small amount being tested so surely way more that actually have it. I don't see how that sustains itself for many more months without slowing down.

 

edit : this is no type of support for herd immunity. I'm just looking at the absolute mess that's taking place and trying to wonder how it starts resolving in any way at all.

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It feels like there is no good scenario but we are getting a stick where both ends are shitty. How long can this last, the regional lockdowns are absolute bollocks. It would make more sense to have full national lockdown 2 week "circuit breakers" now and then with financial support during that time. Better the economy hibernates for two weeks in the knowledge thats the time frame and people can still spend or save than this lockdown uncertainty fucking everything up every which way. I dont know the solutions but whats happening now is only going to get worse when the furlough scheme ends and the new pointless one begins.

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2 minutes ago, Mathewbet1 said:

Think the entire student population of the uk has probably caught it twice in freshers week. Student Heard immunity completed?

You're looking for the chlamydia thread mate 

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33 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

I think we might be heading for some type of herd immunity here the way this is going that could eventually slow it down. Over 200k tests a day finding over 15k, but what if they did 500k tests? 1 million? Imagine the insane numbers of cases we could find then? What about the people who don't show any symptoms?

 

As we get through winter if this lack of dealing with it well enough carries on I'd guess that the virus will increasingly start losing the ability to spread because it keeps finding more and more people that have already had it?

 

I don't like the idea of trying to make predictions but where else do you arrive with these numbers? 66mil population in the UK, 15k cases from the small amount being tested so surely way more that actually have it. I don't see how that sustains itself for many more months without slowing down.

We've been here before, several times. There's no actual evidence that any more than about 10-20% of the population has already had it, so it looks like we're nowhere near herd immunity. The only way to achieve that sensibly is through mass vaccination, and even then- if the re-infection reports are true- you might need multiple booster jabs.

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6 minutes ago, Mudface said:

We've been here before, several times. There's no actual evidence that any more than about 10-20% of the population has already had it, so it looks like we're nowhere near herd immunity. The only way to achieve that sensibly is through mass vaccination, and even then- if the re-infection reports are true- you might need multiple booster jabs.

 

Ok, thanks anyway. I suppose I should said more of a herd immunity light instead of full on population herd immunity, was mainly trying to think of how this might be slowed down a little if that 10-20% increases significantly over the winter.

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1 hour ago, Red Phoenix said:

I think we might be heading for some type of herd immunity here the way this is going that could eventually slow it down. Over 200k tests a day finding over 15k, but what if they did 500k tests? 1 million? Imagine the insane numbers of cases we could find then? What about the people who don't show any symptoms?

 

As we get through winter if this lack of dealing with it well enough carries on I'd guess that the virus will increasingly start losing the ability to spread because it keeps finding more and more people that have already had it?

 

I don't like the idea of trying to make predictions but where else do you arrive with these numbers? 66mil population in the UK, 15k cases from the small amount being tested so surely way more that actually have it. I don't see how that sustains itself for many more months without slowing down.

 

edit : this is no type of support for herd immunity. I'm just looking at the absolute mess that's taking place and trying to wonder how it starts resolving in any way at all.

Well that's about half a million cases per month. And if you assume there's probably double that who don't know or asymptomatic, let's say a million. If that goes for 6 months that's only 6m people assuming this rate is maintained. And if you assumed the same number caught it in the 1st wave wave, that's only 12m. We probably need about 35-40m to create any type of herd immunity. 

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2 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

I think we might be heading for some type of herd immunity here the way this is going that could eventually slow it down. Over 200k tests a day finding over 15k, but what if they did 500k tests? 1 million? Imagine the insane numbers of cases we could find then? What about the people who don't show any symptoms?

 

As we get through winter if this lack of dealing with it well enough carries on I'd guess that the virus will increasingly start losing the ability to spread because it keeps finding more and more people that have already had it?

 

I don't like the idea of trying to make predictions but where else do you arrive with these numbers? 66mil population in the UK, 15k cases from the small amount being tested so surely way more that actually have it. I don't see how that sustains itself for many more months without slowing down.

 

edit : this is no type of support for herd immunity. I'm just looking at the absolute mess that's taking place and trying to wonder how it starts resolving in any way at all.

I think you're right. The NYT ran an article a few weeks ago on the results of antibody tests in various boroughs of New York. The area of Brooklyn mostly affected in March-May now demonstrate up 68% of the population tested positive for antibodies, thus achieving herd immunity.  Crucially, it was the people living in these neighbourhoods that had to do the lower-paid essential work over lock-down and had to resort to neighbourhood child care. It was carnage - bodies piling up in refrigerated artics for weeks.

 

AFAIK, this is the only community in a temperate climate that has come out the other end of Covid with herd immunity in place. Scary.

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11 minutes ago, cochyn said:

I think you're right. The NYT ran an article a few weeks ago on the results of antibody tests in various boroughs of New York. The area of Brooklyn mostly affected in March-May now demonstrate up 68% of the population tested positive for antibodies, thus achieving herd immunity.  Crucially, it was the people living in these neighbourhoods that had to do the lower-paid essential work over lock-down and had to resort to neighbourhood child care. It was carnage - bodies piling up in refrigerated artics for weeks.

 

AFAIK, this is the only community in a temperate climate that has come out the other end of Covid with herd immunity in place. Scary.

these are the ONS estimates. As of early september. We're not even slightly approaching herd immunity according to this. Although it is a pretty small sample size. This seems really low to me considering over 700k have actually tested positive. I will maybe have a hunt around to see if there is anything on Zoe site for their estimate.  

 

image.png

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1 hour ago, Barrington Womble said:

Well that's about half a million cases per month. And if you assume there's probably double that who don't know or asymptomatic, let's say a million. If that goes for 6 months that's only 6m people assuming this rate is maintained. And if you assumed the same number caught it in the 1st wave wave, that's only 12m. We probably need about 35-40m to create any type of herd immunity. 

Viruses tend to have exponential growth if left to infect a population. I'd imagine most of the country would have been infected in a shorter period than that. Especially if you took most of the restrictions away in order to gain some immunity from recovered people. The problem is of course overload of the health services and subsequent needless death toll. 

 

 

 

Whenever you have exponential growth, whatever it is that's growing will double its presence/population in a given amount of time. Let's say you start with a population that has just one infected person on January 1st, and the number of infected people doubles every three days.

How many people will be infected by January 31? How many people will be infected by this year's equinox: March 19?

If the exponential nature of the infection transmission isn't stemmed in any way, there will be 1024 infected people on January 31: about a thousand times as many as you began with. That's a lot, but remember that this continues to double every three days as long as this growth remains exponential. On February 3, there will be twice as many: 2048 infected. On February 6, that rises to 4096. By the time you get to March 19, which is 78 days after the initial infection, some 67 million people will be infected.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/03/17/why-exponential-growth-is-so-scary-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus/#1da4e0ff4e9b

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Wales being locked down again. Fucking great! They've even said that we won't see an immediate reduction in cases, but we will in the long term. This is basically completely unaccountable action. Schools can stay open up to year 8, nurseries can stay open, but you can't meet with anybody from any other household inside or outside.

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6 minutes ago, Jedd Drudge said:

Viruses tend to have exponential growth if left to infect a population. I'd imagine most of the country would have been infected in a shorter period than that. Especially if you took most of the restrictions away in order to gain some immunity from recovered people. The problem is of course overload of the health services and subsequent needless death toll

 

 

 

Whenever you have exponential growth, whatever it is that's growing will double its presence/population in a given amount of time. Let's say you start with a population that has just one infected person on January 1st, and the number of infected people doubles every three days.

How many people will be infected by January 31? How many people will be infected by this year's equinox: March 19?

If the exponential nature of the infection transmission isn't stemmed in any way, there will be 1024 infected people on January 31: about a thousand times as many as you began with. That's a lot, but remember that this continues to double every three days as long as this growth remains exponential. On February 3, there will be twice as many: 2048 infected. On February 6, that rises to 4096. By the time you get to March 19, which is 78 days after the initial infection, some 67 million people will be infected.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/03/17/why-exponential-growth-is-so-scary-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus/#1da4e0ff4e9b

yeah, of course it would rattle through if unrestricted as it is a highly contagious virus. but we have been restricting it in some form or another since March. So it would be quite a surprise if we were approaching herd immunity at this point. I do believe it is the governments objective, but then this government is not known for either it's realism or its ability to deliver. 

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3 hours ago, Barrington Womble said:

This continues to look shit. All these new measures are not going to be enough to get this back under control are they? We're getting the worst of both worlds, an effective lockdown where any socialising is banned, minimal financial support and the virus continues to rattle through the community. Fuck these incompetent Tory cunts. 

Screenshot_20201019-102135.jpg

Yep, this is what happens when you have no strategy. Just a government of campaigning personalities led by a bullshitter-in-chief, who can't do anything except put a half-baked measure in place to react to yesterday's headlines. NZ, all of these countries who've been "successful" have basically had a general strategy - in most cases to suppress the virus by any means necessary, and all else is secondary to that (but the quicker you 'beat' the virus the quicker you can just reboot your economy).

 

Our cunts have tried to be far cleverer than any of them actually are, by trying to weight beating the virus off against trying to limit damage to the economy, largely by trying to just ban socialising and leaving pretty much everything else untouched. As a result they've done neither. The incompetence is staggering. They're absolute failures, and yet there'll still be idiots who'll worship the ground they walk on because they "stand up for Britain (i.e. Brexit)."

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4 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Wales being locked down again. Fucking great! They've even said that we won't see an immediate reduction in cases, but we will in the long term. This is basically completely unaccountable action. Schools can stay open up to year 8, nurseries can stay open, but you can't meet with anybody from any other household inside or outside.

how long for? i got the impression from the news flash i saw earlier it was just for half term to buy some time? 

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1 minute ago, Barrington Womble said:

how long for? i got the impression from the news flash i saw earlier it was just for half term to buy some time? 

16 days... no science behind it from what I can gather. I think it might just be a way that they can claim more money from central government.

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Just now, Spy Bee said:

16 days... no science behind it from what I can gather. I think it might just be a way that they can claim more money from central government.

i know you don't like it, but lockdowns (if implemented properly) supress the virus. it would seem to me if you have a 16 day circuit breaker, for those 16 days you will stop the virus growing and get the R rate down. 

 

and there is science behind it. SAGE have been recommending this as a course of action for a month - I think 23rd September. 

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It doesn't change much for me to be honest. I'm a key worker that doesn't go out that much. I just think it's shit for people who need to pay their mortgage.

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Just now, Spy Bee said:

It doesn't change much for me to be honest. I'm a key worker that doesn't go out that much. I just think it's shit for people who need to pay their mortgage.

it is shit for people who need to pay their mortgage. the government should absolutely put something in place to pay for it. 

 

Oh and it was the 21st Sept sorry ....

 

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Yes, but the idea of a circuit breaker is total theory. It's never been done and nobody knows what the results will be. In the north west infections continued to grow when they were in lockdown. Because the national lockdown appeared to have good results everyone presumes they work, but perhaps infections fell because of the time of year and the seasonality of the virus.

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