Coronavirus

[Dr Nowt]

34 minutes ago, Tony Moanero said:

I read somewhere that the AstraZeneca vaccine is 60% effective against the Indian variant and 66% effective against the Kent variant, which, if true, is pretty shit.

One thing to remember mate is the headline figures being quoted in the press regarding vaccine effectiveness levels typically concern protection from simply testing positive for COVID, which includes people being aysmptomatic and having very mild symptoms which don't turn into something severe. When you start to look at significant infection levels, i.e. those requiring hospitalisation and causing death, the protection levels appear to be 95%+ for hospitalisations and as close to 100% as we're going to see for deaths. Even then, there are questions regarding whether people were 2 weeks post their second jab before becoming infected. The stats on the vaccines really are very good atm, including for many of the new variants.

[Section_31]

Yeah the fixation on cases and efficacy are baffling. 

 

The WHOLE issue with Covid-19, the reason it caused pandemonium and lockdowns and all the rest of it, wasn't that people caught it, it was the idea that everyone would turn up at hospital on the same day and there wouldn't be enough beds.

 

By all accounts, the vaccines are hugely protective against serious illness, death and hospitalisation. The rest of it is white noise. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Tony Moanero said:

I read somewhere that the AstraZeneca vaccine is 60% effective against the Indian variant and 66% effective against the Kent variant, which, if true, is pretty shit.

I wouldn't read too much into the figures spouted about. They're based on the clinical trials and each product was trialled in different ways. Take a look at it here...

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00069-0/fulltext

[Davelfc]

1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

People get jabs to go to Thailand and shit, I bet he's got a BCG scar too, no? If you look at the potential side effects of even relatively innocuous medication, some of them are mental. 

Just to play devil's advocate for a moment, as I'm double jabbed myself. 

 

People get jabs to go abroad and of course we have had jabs when born and in younger years. But the vaccines had been long established and are to ward off some very serious illnesses. 

 

This is a new vaccine where the long term effects are unknown. The threat of covid is currently extremely low in healthy young people. I can certainly see why many do not want it. 

 

 

 

[Jockey]

1 hour ago, No2 said:

Got stabbed by Pfizer this morning. That was 4 hours ago and virtually no after affects so far, head and tummy threatened to go places I didn't want to go but that's the extent of it.

 

What is the timeliness for saying I'm through this?

I had the Aldi/Oxford one - and that hit me badly the early hours of the following morning! So, the next day. My mate was fine, but the second dose hit him hard - but I was fine with that! Not sure there is a 'pattern' as such. 

 

[Jockey]

1 hour ago, Dr Nowt said:

One thing to remember mate is the headline figures being quoted in the press regarding vaccine effectiveness levels typically concern protection from simply testing positive for COVID, which includes people being aysmptomatic and having very mild symptoms which don't turn into something severe. When you start to look at significant infection levels, i.e. those requiring hospitalisation and causing death, the protection levels appear to be 95%+ for hospitalisations and as close to 100% as we're going to see for deaths. Even then, there are questions regarding whether people were 2 weeks post their second jab before becoming infected. The stats on the vaccines really are very good atm, including for many of the new variants.

Yep, I don't understand the continued focus on the cases. They are predominantly in the younger groups and there is lots of evidence that the link between the virus and hospitalisation will break. Doesn't matter how many get the virus if we don't end up in hospital. 

 

If it ends up as 'no worse than flu' then there isn't an issue. 

[Moo]

1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

Yeah the fixation on cases and efficacy are baffling. 

 

The WHOLE issue with Covid-19, the reason it caused pandemonium and lockdowns and all the rest of it, wasn't that people caught it, it was the idea that everyone would turn up at hospital on the same day and there wouldn't be enough beds.

 

By all accounts, the vaccines are hugely protective against serious illness, death and hospitalisation. The rest of it is white noise. 

That's great in theory, but the more cases you have the more serious illness you have and more hospitalisations.  With a more transmissible variant the growth can quickly become exponential (isn't that happening in some areas already?), so it's right to be concerned about the number of cases at this stage, until it's proven over a period that more cases doesn't result in unmanageable hospitalisations and "unexpected" numbers of deaths.

 

edit - it's not much more than a week ago that Bolton Hospital was struggling, opening another Covid ward and asking people not to attend A+E if I recall correctly

 

[Section_31]

3 minutes ago, Moo said:

That's great in theory, but the more cases you have the more serious illness you have and more hospitalisations.  With a more transmissible variant the growth can quickly become exponential (isn't that happening in some areas already?), so it's right to be concerned about the number of cases at this stage, until it's proven over a period that more cases doesn't result in unmanageable hospitalisations and "unexpected" numbers of deaths.

 

You're never going to stop cases though, unless you remain in lockdown forever. 

 

Same with variants, they're gene sequencing out the ass so they'll find more and more of them and each one will be a STORY.

 

The issue has always been can we go about our lives while leaving our hospitals able to cope..

[Davelfc]

Just now, Moo said:

That's great in theory, but the more cases you have the more serious illness you have and more hospitalisations.  With a more transmissible variant the growth can quickly become exponential (isn't that happening in some areas already?), so it's right to be concerned about the number of cases at this stage, until it's proven over a period that more cases doesn't result in unmanageable hospitalisations and "unexpected" numbers of deaths.

A lot of young people have been going about their business for over a year, a lot working in offices. A lot of them have already had covid, a lot of them have some immunity already. 

 

When it was running rampant the main threat was to the very old and people with underlying conditions and they've all been offered the vaccine. 

 

I'm not really sure what else we can do, unless a very dangerous variant comes along that is. 

[No2]

4 minutes ago, Poster said:

Just to play devil's advocate for a moment, as I'm double jabbed myself. 

 

People get jabs to go abroad and of course we have had jabs when born and in younger years. But the vaccines had been long established and are to ward off some very serious illnesses. 

 

This is a new vaccine where the long term effects are unknown. The threat of covid is currently extremely low in healthy young people. I can certainly see why many do not want it. 

 

 

 

When they go about still in trials just tell them they are correct, it is still in trial phase. 

 

There where scientists on the radio a few weeks back talking about trials on a new drug for haemophilia (I think). This was life changing stuff, the results were amazing but the only people who can use these drugs are those on the trials. Other sufferers will have to wait while the drug goes through a few years of obligatory t&c's. This is obviously a bit shit for them but safety is obviously the priority and avoiding getting sued hence the delay. With the Covid vaccines the option to spend 3 years perfecting it and a further 3 going through the necessaries was open to us. If, as a world we where prepared to stay indoors for 6 years they could have done this in a non trial way. It was a simple case of measuring risk versus reward.

[KMD7]

7 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

This is pure Partridge from Richard Madeley here, just superb stuff ! 

 

 

 

 

Ha ha love The Madeley. 

[Bjornebye]

5 minutes ago, KMD7 said:

Ha ha love The Madeley. 

I absolutely detest him and have for years but thats funny as fuck. Just watched it again and it's more Partridge than Partridge 

[tokyojoe]

3 hours ago, No2 said:

Got stabbed by Pfizer this morning. That was 4 hours ago and virtually no after affects so far, head and tummy threatened to go places I didn't want to go but that's the extent of it.

 

What is the timeliness for saying I'm through this?

I had no problems with that one at all mate. No need to worry.

[Bruce Spanner]

And PHE give us the kick in the knackers we knew was coming...

 

 

[Mudface]

7 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

And PHE give us the kick in the knackers we knew was coming...

 

 

Fuck. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/india-covid-variant-may-increase-risk-of-hospital-admission-early-data-suggests

 

India Covid variant may increase risk of hospital admission, early data suggests
Public Health England analysis finds Delta variant is more likely to lead to hospitalisation than Kent variant
The Delta variant, also known as B.1.617.2 is believed to be more transmissible that the Alpha variant, and somewhat more resistant to Covid vaccines. 

The coronavirus variant of concern first discovered in India, known as Delta, is more likely to lead to hospitalisations that the Alpha variant first detected in Kent, data suggests, raising further concerns about its spread across the UK.

The Delta variant, also known as B.1.617.2, is the dominant variant in the UK – accounting for up to 75% of new coronavirus cases. It is believed to be more transmissible that the Alpha variant, and somewhat more resistant to Covid vaccines, particularly after just one dose.

Now data from Public Health England has revealed not only that confirmed cases of the variant have risen to 12,431 up from 6,959 the week before, but that it appears to increase the risk of hospitalisation compared with Alpha variant.

An analysis of 38,805 sequenced cases in England revealed that the Delta variant was associated with a 2.61 fold higher risk of hospitalisation within 14 days of specimen date compared with the Alpha variant. There was a 1.67 times higher risk of emergency care attendance or hospitalisation within 14 days, once factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, area of residence and vaccination status were taken into account.

Data from Scotland supported the findings, also pointing to a more than twofold higher risk of hospitalisation for those infected with the Delta variant compared with the Alpha variant.

However the team warned further research was needed. “Confirmatory analyses are required to confirm the magnitude of the change in risk and to explore the link to vaccination in more detail,” the document states.

Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive, UK Health Security Agency, said: “With this variant now dominant across the UK, it remains vital that we continue to exercise caution particularly while we learn more about transmission and health impacts.” She said working from home where possible, hand washing, social distancing and fresh air remain important measures. “If you are eligible and have not already done so, please come forward to be vaccinated and make sure you get your second jab. It will save lives,” she said.

The data comes as overall Covid cases in the UK continue to rise: on Thursday 4,330 new cases were reported, up from 3,165 the day before – a 37% rise.

Hospitalisations are also showing signs of an uptick in some parts of the country, highlighting that while the link between infections and severe disease has been weakened by the vaccination programme it has not been severed.

Prof Christina Pagel, director of UCL’s Clinical Operational Research Unit, said the new report is concerning. “Every technical report seems to bring worse news. Added to increased transmissibility and some vaccine escape, we now have evidence that your chance of being hospitalised might be twice as high with the Delta variant than with the Alpha variant,” she said. “This makes it harder for vaccines to weaken the link between cases and hospitalisations.”

[Moo]

16 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Fuck. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/india-covid-variant-may-increase-risk-of-hospital-admission-early-data-suggests

 

 

 

As I was saying...

[Mudface]

10 minutes ago, Moo said:

As I was saying...

Yep, nightmare. 

[Barrington Womble]

On 01/06/2021 at 23:00, Shooter in the Motor said:

Whatever happened to them and Crispin Mills?

Didn't basically the music press turn against them when they went all swastika in a bid to show their hippy Indian connections and then part of the music industry couldn't find a way to get on board with swastikas, so from there on in they got slammed as Nazis, which as most of their fans were hippy students, fucked their whole "cool" thing up? 

On 01/06/2021 at 23:05, Bruce Spanner said:

I went to the twentieth anniversary of ‘K’ with people who should have known better against my better judgement , it was terrible, but the blerts I was with enjoyed.

 

Venn diagram of people who like Kula Shaker and don’t get a round in is pretty damning...

Is that because your mates still think they're students? I used to like Kula shaker. Their fans were fucking pricks. 

[Megadrive Man]

4 hours ago, Tony Moanero said:

I read somewhere that the AstraZeneca vaccine is 60% effective against the Indian variant and 66% effective against the Kent variant, which, if true, is pretty shit.

 

This is still pretty good, and should be enough to protect against death and serious illness. Most Flu Jabs are normally only about 60% to 80% effective. 

[Dave D]

3 hours ago, Jockey said:

I had the Aldi/Oxford one - and that hit me badly the early hours of the following morning! So, the next day. My mate was fine, but the second dose hit him hard - but I was fine with that! Not sure there is a 'pattern' as such. 

 

Bloody hope that is the pattern. I was rougher than a rat catchers dog after first one (AZ) Got 2nd this Saturday! 

[Bobby Hundreds]

Just had a text saying they have cancelled my second appointment, it was a beautiful appointment too. Absolute bastards.

[Jockey]

59 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

And PHE give us the kick in the knackers we knew was coming...

 

 

Not really. Still the majority of hospitalisation is non-vaccinated. So far no proof it is going to be back to square one, whereby the virus seeds in younger groups and spreads through the old. 

[Bruce Spanner]

26 minutes ago, Jockey said:

Not really. Still the majority of hospitalisation is non-vaccinated. So far no proof it is going to be back to square one, whereby the virus seeds in younger groups and spreads through the old. 

Not square one, not everything has to be either/or, you are allowed spectrums.

 

A set back, and potentially a significant one at that, is what it could be.

[sir roger]

Thev ndian one is so last week , I've ordered the Nepalese one.

[Bruce Spanner]

26 minutes ago, Jockey said:

Not really. Still the majority of hospitalisation is non-vaccinated. So far no proof it is going to be back to square one, whereby the virus seeds in younger groups and spreads through the old. 

Not square one, not everything has to be either/or, you are allowed spectrums.

 

A set back, and potentially a significant one at that, is what it could be.