Coronavirus

[Captain Turdseye]

2 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

9 fellas on the NY Yankees were reported the other day. None had any symptoms.

The Indian variant is rampant amongst the NY Yankees? 

[Moo]

15 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

There's been nothing disappointing about the effectiveness of the vaccines thus far, quite the contrary. 

Don't be ridiculous. If we were told it significantly reduces transmission but then told it doesn't, in what's likely to become the dominant strain in the UK, that is disappointing whichever way you slice it.

Wasn't it also suggested that continued transmission amongst a vaccinated population is how it would mutate into a vaccine resistant strain?  I recall reading that but would very happily be corrected.

[TheHowieLama]

Who said it "prevents" anything?

 

That is not what vaccines do.

[3 Stacks]

3 minutes ago, Moo said:

Don't be ridiculous. If we were told it prevents transmission but then told it doesn't, in what's likely to become the dominant strain in the UK, that is disappointing whichever way you slice it.

Wasn't it also suggested that continued transmission amongst a vaccinated population is how it would mutate into a vaccine resistant strain?  I recall reading that but would very happily be corrected.

No one ever promised vaccines were going to prevent transmission. 

[Moo]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

Who said it "prevents" anything?

 

That is not what vaccines do.

Sorry, wrong choice of words, I should have said "significantly reduces" as I did in my earlier post.

[Moo]

2 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

No one ever promised vaccines were going to prevent transmission. 

I meant to say "significantly reduces" as per my earlier post.  I have now corrected it, the point stands.

[Sugar Ape]

I remember reading this article when the Kent variant was in the news saying a more transmissible variant is worse than a more deadly one which is probably why they’re worried so much about it spreading in unvaccinated or partly vaccinated people. 
 

I don’t know where they’re getting this data from but I’ve seen loads of journalists mention we’re sitting on a huge stockpile of vaccines. One of them (Hugo Gye maybe?) asked Johnson about it at the press conference last night and said we have a stockpile of ten million vaccines. Johnson didn’t deny it. Not sure if they’re saving them for second doses or something but we should be ramping things up considerably if they’re just sitting there. 
 

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-variants-why-being-more-transmissible-rather-than-more-deadly-isnt-good-news-152863

 

Coronavirus variants: why being more transmissible rather than more deadly isn’t good news

 

Every time the coronavirus replicates, it has a chance to mutate. And given that it is currently rampaging around the world, it has plenty of opportunities to do just that. 
 

Many mutations will make little or no difference to the virus’s ability to spread or cause more severe disease. Others will make it less likely to spread – those mutations are more likely to die out. But some will make the virus more deadly or more transmissible. These are the mutations we need to worry about. 

 

On the afternoon of Friday 18, December, the UK government was alerted to the possibility that a new variant of the coronavirus circulating in the UK was 70% more transmissible than previously dominant variants.

 

Without any control measures (such as social distancing or wearing a mask), in a wholly susceptible population each person newly infected with the previously dominant variant of the virus would pass it on to three others (known as the basic reproduction number or R0). With a 70% increase in transmissibility, the number of people each person might infect, in the absence of control measures, increases to around five.

 

Fortunately, we have taken preventative measures to reduce the reproduction number (R) and slow the spread of the virus. However, even if these control measures were enough to reduce the previous variant’s R to 1 (the critical value below which infections start to fall), they would only reduce the new variant’s R to 1.7. Every ten people infected would infect 17 others and infections would spread exponentially.

 

In short, this increased transmissibility looked like really bad news. The hard lockdown the UK undertook last spring was thought to be enough to reduce R for the old variant to around 0.6. A 70% increase in transmissibility would mean that it was questionable whether even restrictions as tight as the ones the UK implemented in the spring of 2020 would be enough to suppress the spread of the new variant.

 

As more has become known, this estimate of increased transmissibility has begun to be revised down. A follow-up study from researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine – which is yet to be published in a scientific journal – suggested that the variant might be between 50-70% more transmissible. A more recent investigation from Public Health England suggested that the variant may only be between 30-50% more transmissible. This might explain why the UK’s current lockdown, which is less stringent than the first lockdown, has been enough to bring cases of this more transmissible variant down. Whatever the exact figure, there is little doubt that the new variant is significantly more transmissible.

 

Variants of concern

 

As new variants (particularly B117) take hold in countries around the world, there are three things we should be worried about: first, whether the new variants are more transmissible; second, whether they are more deadly, and third, whether they are able to evade the COVID vaccines that are currently being rolled out.

 

There is no evidence to suggest that the UK variant makes any of the approved vaccines less effective, (although there is reason to believe the new South African variant may render existing immunity less effective). 

 

Indeed, news of the increased transmissibility of the new variant is often accompanied by a seemingly reassuring mention that the variant is not more deadly. Many news outlets have cited the “law of declining virulence”, which suggests that a more transmissible variant will be associated with milder illness. The idea behind the theory is that viruses that evolve to be more deadly will wipe out their host before being passed on, limiting chains of transmission and causing the variant to die out. 

 

Unfortunately, given the long infectious period of COVID-19, the potential for asymptomatic transmission, and the length of time between infection and death, there is no reason why this rule of thumb should hold. But given that we have a more transmissible variant that does not appear to be more deadly, should we be happier about this than if it were the other way around?

 

In fact, even a 30% more transmissible variant can be way worse than a variant that is 30% more deadly. At the heart of this counter-intuitive assertion lies an old foe that has plagued us right from the start of this pandemic: exponential growth. Here’s a simple thought experiment that helps to explain why.

 

Imagine the old variant spreading under measures that have reduced R to 1. Starting with 10,000 infected people, every generation interval (time becoming infected and infecting someone else) they will infect 10,000 more. Of everyone that gets infected, let’s assume that 1% of them will die. After ten generations, 100,000 new infections will have occurred leading to 1,000 deaths. 
 

With a variant that is 30% more deadly, the same number of infections will occur, but they will lead to 1,300 deaths. Yet with a variant that is 30% more transmissible but not more deadly, because cases will grow exponentially, the eventual death toll over the same period stretches to over 4,200. The longer this goes on for, the bigger the death toll discrepancy between the more transmissible and the more deadly strain becomes.

 

While the above scenario is not intended to be completely realistic, it illustrates that a change in the rate at which the disease spreads exponentially can have a far more significant impact than the rate at which it kills. We shouldn’t take comfort when we hear of the emergence of new variants that are “more transmissible, but no more deadly”.
 

 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Great outdoor drinking area in Park Road, Dingle. The 82 bus stop! 

[sir roger]

Hoe do you get a parrot to speak ?

Throw it on the 82c

[Anubis]

If only we lived in a country that could be immediately isolated from people travelling in from badly affected areas, such as an island. New Zealand and Japan are jammy bastards.

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, Anubis said:

If only we lived in a country that could be immediately isolated from people travelling in from badly affected areas, such as an island. New Zealand and Japan are Jammu bastards.

As soon as we regain sovereignty and can control our own borders we'll be sorted. Any time now.

[an tha]

I see the media are starting to whip up a frenzy about how lockdown easing is going to see covid explode.

 

It baffles me though how it always seems to centre around people being able to go for a pint in a pub, have a plate of scran in a cafe etc - which frankly are simple pleasures and low risk....articles on bbc today with scientists expressing concern about 'noisy pubs' where people shout etc etc etc....

 

Yet no real same level of noise around people being allowed to fly off all round world to places where vaccination rates are low and they risk bringing back covid back with them, including new variants from all over world....and the shite border force controls around covid because they can't cope with numbers travelling.

 

If they stopped people travelling abroad all over place (especially just for their fortnight in the sun) until everyone has had jab and other countries are well jabbed too, they'd have things under much more control and we'd all enjoy more freedom here too instead of restrictions being placed on us all again when the virus is inevitably imported in because of all the international travel.

[johnsusername]

Here's a bunch of dickheads -

 

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/cosmic-scousers-sine-missione-rise-20583071?IYA-mail=e82b92d8-4567-4a5c-8ea4-d20bf8e902e3

 

 

[Tony Moanero]

36 minutes ago, johnsusername said:

Here's a bunch of dickheads -

 

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/cosmic-scousers-sine-missione-rise-20583071?IYA-mail=e82b92d8-4567-4a5c-8ea4-d20bf8e902e3

 

 

“No microchip”

 

Deary me!

 

[Colonel Bumcunt]

What the point?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/bemused-bedford-shrugs-off-arrival-of-indian-covid-variant

[tokyojoe]

1 hour ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

What the point?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/bemused-bedford-shrugs-off-arrival-of-indian-covid-variant

Bedford? Are they sure it's not the Italian variant?

[Skidfingers McGonical]

3 hours ago, Tony Moanero said:

“No microchip”

 

Deary me!

 

Some long arms on that person holding the sign.

[Bjornebye]

1 hour ago, Skidfingers McGonical said:

Some long arms on that person holding the sign.

And I always thought Crouchie was a decent human being 

[Carvalho Diablo]

Had to leg it as soon as Alisson scored the winner because my 2nd jab was due at 18:45.

Fully jabbed up, 3 more points in the bag, kebab on the way, it's been a jolly fine day.

[Bjornebye]

7 minutes ago, Carvalho Diablo said:

Had to leg it as soon as Alisson scored the winner because my 2nd jab was due at 18:45.

Fully jabbed up, 3 more points in the bag, kebab on the way, it's been a jolly fine day.

Nice one mate, what sauces? 

[tokyojoe]

Had my Pfizer booster on Wednesday. No side effects except a slight ache in the arm for a few hours.

 

Seems I got off better than some of you so best of luck to the rest.

[Carvalho Diablo]

1 hour ago, Bjornebye said:

Nice one mate, what sauces? 

Chili

[Bjornebye]

25 minutes ago, Carvalho Diablo said:

Chili

Good man. And garlic as well I hope. 

[chrisbonnie]

Currently isolating with my father and brother, we've all tested positive. 

 

My 65 year old father was vaccinated 4 weeks ago tomorrow and can go home on Wednesday, he's been fine, a temperature for a few hours and that was that. 

 

I came down with a high fever on Friday, but the temp is fine now, the cough has now come on me nothing too bad (knock on wood) just chesty, feels like the end of a cough if that makes sense. 

 

The smell and taste have vastly reduced as well, weirdly, nearly instantaneously. I had my dinner at 7 and everything was fine but had a packet of salt and vinegar crisps at 9 and could barely taste them, really weird actually. 

 

Hopefully this is the worst of it and it's plain sailing from here on out. Fingers crossed anyway

[Section_31]

5 minutes ago, chrisbonnie said:

Currently isolating with my father and brother, we've all tested positive. 

 

My 65 year old father was vaccinated 4 weeks ago tomorrow and can go home on Wednesday, he's been fine, a temperature for a few hours and that was that. 

 

I came down with a high fever on Friday, but the temp is fine now, the cough has now come on me nothing too bad (knock on wood) just chesty, feels like the end of a cough if that makes sense. 

 

The smell and taste have vastly reduced as well, weirdly, nearly instantaneously. I had my dinner at 7 and everything was fine but had a packet of salt and vinegar crisps at 9 and could barely taste them, really weird actually. 

 

Hopefully this is the worst of it and it's plain sailing from here on out. Fingers crossed anyway

Have you had your vaccine pal? Glad your dad has I bet that has spared him the worst.