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Coronavirus


Bjornebye

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39 minutes ago, Vincent Vega said:

If we’d followed Sweden’s example, I reckon we’d be looking at close to half a million deaths in this country. The fact is they seemed happy to kill off some of their elderly, whether people think that’s right or wrong is up to them. Personally I think it marks you out as a bit of a wrongun. 

 

15 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

With baseless doom-mongering like that, you should be a member of SAGE.

 

Just the small matter of explaining why Sweden's deaths per capita is much lower than most of Europe.

Happy to stand by my view Stronts and don’t believe my views are baseless.

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40 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

With baseless doom-mongering like that, you should be a member of SAGE.

 

Just the small matter of explaining why Sweden's deaths per capita is much lower than most of Europe.

So you're shifting the goalposts from 'all-cause mortality'. OK.

 

It's actually bang in the middle- lower than a bunch of countries that completely fucked up their responses, but much higher than their near neighbours. Just a small matter of explaining why Sweden's deaths per capita is 3 times higher than Denmark, and about 9-10 times higher than Finland or Norway. It's also about 40% higher than in Germany

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Click on Europe, then sort by deaths per million.

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No goalposts have been moved. Pointing out that Sweden is presently having below average deaths and pointing out that their covid death rate is lower than ours are two separate things.

 

Yes, I'm sure Sweden's death rate is higher than a number of other cherry-picked countries too. However, it is also lower than the UK, France, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and dozens of others.

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41 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

No goalposts have been moved. Pointing out that Sweden is presently having below average deaths and pointing out that their covid death rate is lower than ours are two separate things.

 

Yes, I'm sure Sweden's death rate is higher than a number of other cherry-picked countries too. However, it is also lower than the UK, France, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and dozens of others.

Apples and apples. Would you agree that Denmark Finland and Norway are similar? If not why not? 

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26 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

No goalposts have been moved. Pointing out that Sweden is presently having below average deaths and pointing out that their covid death rate is lower than ours are two separate things.

Bullshit. The graph I posted showed significantly higher deaths last year than normal, and a similar rate this year by a crude extrapolation. If you have figures that show the last few months' deaths in Sweden are lower than previous years than stick them up. 

 

34 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

Yes, I'm sure Sweden's death rate is higher than a number of other cherry-picked countries too. However, it is also lower than the UK, France, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and dozens of others.

Cherry-picked? You mean their immediate neighbours? Who would be expected to have similar demographics but responded in different ways and had massively more favourable outcomes. Sweden's 24th out of 48 in Europe for death rate, 32nd in the world. The countries they're behind are the ones that fucked this up.

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21 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Apples and apples. Would you agree that Denmark Finland and Norway are similar? If not why not? 

 

Obviously they share some similarities - they're all Nordic countries - but it's just lazy to assume they're completely analogous. Sweden's cities have higher population densities, and Sweden has a significantly higher ethnic minority population (and we know from this country and others that ethnic minorities were hit disproportinately hard). Those are just two differences I know off the top of my head.

 

Regardless, this all misses the point, which is that countries like Sweden and Japan, which never locked down or imposed mask mandates, suffered less than very many countries which did. Doesn't this rather imply that perhaps masks and lockdowns aren't as important in controlling the spread as has been claimed in certain quarters?

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2 minutes ago, Captain Howdy said:

Does anybody think we still need lockdown measures here?

Dunno- they're being lifted so hopefully the vaccination program will hold the cases and deaths down from now on. We absolutely needed them beforehand though.

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19 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

We still need restrictions: the virus is still "out there" and the R rate is still too high.

This is my feeling here. We are way behind the UK on vaccinations, ICU is near full, other hospital appointments aren't happening yet the pub terraces opened on Wednesday. It's only from 12 till 6 at the moment but I don't think I'll be going. 

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26 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Obviously they share some similarities - they're all Nordic countries - but it's just lazy to assume they're completely analogous. Sweden's cities have higher population densities, and Sweden has a significantly higher ethnic minority population (and we know from this country and others that ethnic minorities were hit disproportinately hard). Those are just two differences I know off the top of my head.

 

Regardless, this all misses the point, which is that countries like Sweden and Japan, which never locked down or imposed mask mandates, suffered less than very many countries which did. Doesn't this rather imply that perhaps masks and lockdowns aren't as important in controlling the spread as has been claimed in certain quarters?

Christ. I know your degree was only in Ecology, but how on earth did you pass it?

 

We can't compare Nordic countries, apparently because of two differences you know 'off the top of your head'. Not because of the fucking obvious one- they locked down hard.

 

As for the second paragraph, no, it doesn't imply that. 

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2 hours ago, Mudface said:

Christ. I know your degree was only in Ecology, but how on earth did you pass it?

 

The ability to interpret data is a biggie. One of the first things you learn is that correlation is not causation. 

 

This graph is a perfect illustration of that very principle.

 

Eudw0cPVkAA5UwG?format=jpg

 

We locked down, and Sweden didn't. And yet... deaths went up and down at almost exactly the same time.

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6 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

No goalposts have been moved. Pointing out that Sweden is presently having below average deaths and pointing out that their covid death rate is lower than ours are two separate things.

 

Yes, I'm sure Sweden's death rate is higher than a number of other cherry-picked countries too. However, it is also lower than the UK, France, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and dozens of others.

That's partly due to the fact many people live by themselves in Sweden. If many people didn't live by themselves, their strategy would have failed far worse. 

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6 hours ago, Mudface said:

Dunno- they're being lifted so hopefully the vaccination program will hold the cases and deaths down from now on. We absolutely needed them beforehand though.

I Wouldn’t argue with that, it was absolutely needed but like I say it’s a balancing act, lockdown is an extreme measure the damage of which will last a generation, In my opinion it can no longer be justified and should be lifted immediately, none of this “roadmap” nonsense.

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1 hour ago, Captain Howdy said:

I Wouldn’t argue with that, it was absolutely needed but like I say it’s a balancing act, lockdown is an extreme measure the damage of which will last a generation, In my opinion it can no longer be justified and should be lifted immediately, none of this “roadmap” nonsense.

Well the justification is what happened last Autumn/ Winter when we relaxed too much too quickly. They want to check that each step doesn't kick off another surge. So far I'd agree it's looking very promising and the vaccinations are holding the line, but we still need to be cautious given what's happening elsewhere.

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7 hours ago, cloggypop said:

This is my feeling here. We are way behind the UK on vaccinations, ICU is near full, other hospital appointments aren't happening yet the pub terraces opened on Wednesday. It's only from 12 till 6 at the moment but I don't think I'll be going. 

You're barred from most of them anyway aren't you ?

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Hahahaha Stontz knows more than SAGE wow just fucking wow. Absolute whopper hasn’t got a thing right in this whole pandemic and still clutching at straws. Give your bleach blonde head a wobble you fucking biff 

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1 hour ago, Captain Howdy said:

I Wouldn’t argue with that, it was absolutely needed but like I say it’s a balancing act, lockdown is an extreme measure the damage of which will last a generation, In my opinion it can no longer be justified and should be lifted immediately, none of this “roadmap” nonsense.

It’s the people who think that those extreme measures were taken lightly who are the scary ones. I don’t think another lockdown should happen unless we see a huge spike which I don’t think will happen. They were necessary though at the time 

 

Hopefully we are past the worst of it now and we can all start getting back to normal but I do think masks etc and an element of social distancing (human decency) should naturally continue without being told to do so. 

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4 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

The ability to interpret data is a biggie. One of the first things you learn is that correlation is not causation. 

 

This graph is a perfect illustration of that very principle.

 

Eudw0cPVkAA5UwG?format=jpg

 

We locked down, and Sweden didn't. And yet... deaths went up and down at almost exactly the same time.

This is what makes me laugh about you. You've pompously quoted some phrase- 'correlation does not equal causation' in this case- along with a graph which is a prime example of what you think you're refuting. 

 

To quote from this- https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3765

 

Quote

 


Sweden’s response to covid-19 should not be used to argue the case for a population immunity strategy in the UK, the Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Independent SAGE) has argued.

In a briefing paper published on 25 September, Independent SAGE noted that Sweden is often used as an example of a country where a population immunity strategy is working, without lockdowns.

But the paper argues, firstly, that it is a misconception that Sweden has no restrictions or lockdown and, secondly, that assertions that the country’s strategy is successful are “far from clear.”

The report noted the differing social conditions between the UK and Nordic countries, which have a high standard of living, less labour market insecurity, and higher levels of trust. “It seems misleading to draw direct comparisons between Sweden and the UK. Rather, it is appropriate to compare Sweden with its Nordic neighbours. Nor is it justifiable to imagine that policies adopted there can be applied seamlessly in the UK.”

 

 

So why not compare to its Nordic neighbours with similar demographics, rather than the UK, whose response has been a complete disaster after all-

 

image.png

 

12 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Hahahaha Stontz knows more than SAGE wow just fucking wow. Absolute whopper hasn’t got a thing right in this whole pandemic and still clutching at straws. Give your bleach blonde head a wobble you fucking biff 

What he and the other lockdown sceptic clowns gloss over all the time, is that lockdowns are a measure of last resort, used when we have no control over what's happening. Even Sweden has a number of measures in place, detailed here- https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus/restriktioner-och-forbud 

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Sweden didn't even refuse to lockdown. There was an ancient law written that prevented them from doing so or they would have. These Toby Young heads don't like facts though they just point at vague statistics and make outlandish claims instead of listening to actual experts. Most of them should wear a mask permanently the ugly fucking beauts. 

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2 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

Sweden didn't even refuse to lockdown. There was an ancient law written that prevented them from doing so or they would have. These Toby Young heads don't like facts though they just point at vague statistics and make outlandish claims instead of listening to actual experts. Most of them should wear a mask permanently the ugly fucking beauts. 

Politicising public health measures during a pandemic and pretending they give a fuck about civil liberties is truly abhorrent behaviour. To be fair, most people with even a modicum of intelligence recognised their bad faith arguments, magical thinking, grifting and history of being wrong at just about every turn. I guess we live in a Facebook world where people don't want to listen to experts though, and there's enough dickheads suckered in by the conspiracy theories to allow the grifters to thrive. We saw it with SpyBee who practically disappeared up his own arse trying to make out that lockdowns had no effect on transmission.

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There was a period of several weeks in the second wave where Denmark had more deaths per capita than Sweden. This epidemic spreads in waves, I don't know where the biggest exposure in Sweden comes from, is it possible migrant workers from Poland and Baltic countries or did it come from Denmark. With the British (Kent) variant, you can observe  Sweden is lagging behind Poland in high numbers much more than other Nordic countries, so not sure that measures are the only explanation. Plus, most of us have very little idea about actual difference in measures in Sweden and Denmark (Norway, Finland) throughout the epidemic.

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15 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

With baseless doom-mongering like that, you should be a member of SAGE.

 

Just the small matter of explaining why Sweden's deaths per capita is much lower than most of Europe.

So do you reckon if the UK had not had any lockdowns there would have been less deaths from COVID?

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