Coronavirus

[TheHowieLama]

Most of those 30k would have died anyway.

[Sugar Ape]

7 minutes ago, sir roger said:

From what I am reading , restrictions will not be totally relaxed until at the earliest the end of June , which is 2 months later than the premise of the study.

Yes the worst case scenario is if they opened everything with no restrictions from the end of April, which they aren’t going to do. 
 

I’ve been working today so haven’t had a chance to look at it all properly but I’m not sure even the lifting of restrictions at the end of June means everything completely goes. I think masks, wfh if you can and social distancing in some workplaces will be in place until at least the Autumn. 
 

 

[Sugar Ape]

2 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Most of those 30k would have died anyway.

29,998 of them will get ran over by a bus within 28 days of a positive test. 

[Jairzinho]

So, the next time that you can meet a mate indoors is May 17th?

[Bruce Spanner]

4 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

So, the next time that you can meet a mate indoors is May 17th?

 

Yup, unless your mate is selling you a product or service then it's earlier, April 12th.

[Jairzinho]

23 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

Yup, unless your mate is selling you a product or service then it's earlier, April 12th.

Or you marry and/or kill them.

[Bobby Hundreds]

My holiday from last year was moved to the 6th of July this year. Dont think it will happen which will probably be the worst thing that's happened to anybody during this entire pandemic.

[Bjornebye]

3 hours ago, Spy Bee said:

Do you argue with yourself in the mirror?

Ive got a picture of your face on it so yes daily. I've even done a speech bubble coming from your mouth saying "I'm chatting absolute lies and shite but I'll call you a cunt if you dare challenge me" 

 

I've also got a pillow with your ninjas face on and I dry hump it everynight. 

2 hours ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

Stig can see himself in the mirror?

Just don't ever say Stig 3 times into it at midnight. 

 

 

 

Boss on here, people can lie and chat shite then take the moral high-ground when challenged on it. Haha

[SasaS]

2 hours ago, Sugar Ape said:

This is depressing from The Times. 
 

 

Advisers warn tens of thousands more will die of Covid-19 as lockdown eases

 

Tens of thousands more people will die of Covid-19 as Britain opens up, government scientific advisers have concluded.

 

Even a gradual easing during the spring is likely to produce a peak on the scale of last month or last April because so many people remain susceptible, according to modelling by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

 

Lifting all restrictions from the end of April would lead to a far bigger wave of hospital admissions than last month and some limits on social contact will be needed into the summer, the models suggest.

Sage told ministers last week that mask-wearing, avoiding crowds and contact tracing may be needed indefinitely to keep the virus under control.

 

The group recommended five-week gaps between rounds of easing to avoid having to reimpose restrictions and today Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, warned that the government would be “flying blind” if it went faster. Pausing to assess the effect of each change was the only way in which Boris Johnson could be sure his route out of lockdown would be irreversible, he said.

 

The Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs has insisted there is no justification for restrictions to remain in law beyond April. However, modelling by Imperial College London for Sage forecasts that lifting all rules from April 26 would lead to a further 91,000 deaths and a peak of almost 60,000 patients in hospital, about 50 per cent higher than last month.

 

The SPI-M modelling group says that under the “most optimistic” assumptions “at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths” were expected.

 

Allowing people to meet in groups of six indoors from May would see a wave of hospital admissions similar to last month, SPI-M concluded. Pushing this stage back until June or July, with a full lifting of restrictions held off until July or August, would allow the wave to be kept below last spring’s peak, the modelling suggested.

 

Despite assuming that four million people a week are vaccinated from the spring, the scientists said up to half of the population would remain at risk.

 

Vallance told a press conference today that even once the vaccine had been offered to all adults, who comprise 80 per cent of the population, if both vaccine effectiveness and uptake were also 80 per cent, “you've got roughly 50 per cent [protected] across the whole population. So it tells you that even at quite high levels of coverage and protection, you've still got a large number of people unprotected.”

 

He pointed to Israel where despite high vaccination rates “you're seeing an increase in hospitalisation amongst younger people . . . because they’ve got the older people protected, which is encouraging in terms of vaccine efficacy but it tells you what you potentially see if you have a big epidemic before you've got everybody vaccinated.”

 

He said that lockdown release was starting from a “not very good position” and that “it’s likely you get an increase in cases when you open up”. Given this, the longer it was delayed to increase vaccine coverage the fewer cases and deaths there would be, he said, adding: “The slower you do it, the better.”

 

Angela McLean, the deputy chief scientific adviser, said that the return of pupils on March 8 “sounds good to me because that gets children back to school for a few weeks before the Easter holidays, which then gives us some time to comb through the data and understand what's happened.”

 

Opening schools will increase the R rate — which measures virus transmission — by between 10 and 50 per cent according to estimates by SPI-M. Although transmission is lower in primary schools, that could be offset by allowing parents to return to work and the paper suggested that allowing pupils to return “in the absence of easing other restrictions, would allow for an assessment of the impact on community transmission”.

 

The paper, dated January 27, warns: “There is little room for optimism that hospitals will soon be in a position to absorb any fresh wave of infections that might be caused by a mis-timed or unrestrained reopening of schools.”

 

Minutes of a Sage meeting held last Thursday also concluded that “a gap of not less than five weeks between steps is advisable”, warning: “All scenarios show an epidemic resurgence which results in a substantial number of hospital admissions and deaths, though there are differences in the scale and timing . . . modelling suggests that there is the potential for a very large number of infections if restrictions are lifted early or rapidly.”

 

The group added that “retaining a baseline set of policies to reduce transmission after other restrictions have been lifted would reduce the scale of a resurgence”, saying this “could include voluntary measures (eg hygiene measures, mask-wearing in certain situations, avoiding crowding), environmental measures (eg ventilation), and test, trace, and isolate systems.”

 I do not understand that at all. By the end of April UK will have vaccinated at least half of the population. There is also a considerable percentage of people who were already in contact with the virus. Where would this number of 90,000 deaths come from, if, presumably, all vulnerable categories would be vaccinated by then?

[Strontium]

5 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Where would this number of 90,000 deaths come from, if, presumably, all vulnerable categories would be vaccinated by then?

 

If you count every death as a covid death, regardless of whether they actually are, it's quite easy to get to 90,000.

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

If you count every death as a covid death, regardless of whether they actually are, it's quite easy to get to 90,000.

Who is doing that? 

[Chip Butty]

20 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 I do not understand that at all. By the end of April UK will have vaccinated at least half of the population. There is also a considerable percentage of people who were already in contact with the virus. Where would this number of 90,000 deaths come from, if, presumably, all vulnerable categories would be vaccinated by then?

No matter how accurate it is, if that lot are saying don't open up, on current track record, I'd back their guesstimate than the tithead in 10 Downing street.

That cunt has cost more lives than should have been stole, the soft twat. And lets not forget here this tit was brazenly shaking hands 10 months ago telling everyone its alright to do so. The fucking tithead. As we all know, he's our version of that other blonde haired buffoon from across the pond. The fucking overprivileged knobhead. 

[Paulie Dangerously]

So we're basically saying that those dying now is acceptable and we're just going to crack on. 

[Chip Butty]

2 minutes ago, Paulie Dangerously said:

So we're basically saying that those dying now is acceptable and we're just going to crack on. 

Yes, but probably more egregiously, in that the people who really know, the scientists, we're going to fuck them off, because when all is said and done, the most important thing in any politicians life, isn't other peoples lives, its votes.

Everything this fucking wobble headed cunt is doing now, he's doing as a long term currying favor exercise to make amends for the shitheawk conduct of 10 months ago and the following months when he didn't have a fucking clue. This cunt is trying to claw back the fuck up of his administration over the last 10 months and lets not get started on the Brexit debacle. The fucking tithead.

 

This cunt has cost lives and so has his dimwitted cronies, they all want taking out, put against a wall and shot and left to the crows. 

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, Chip Butty said:

Yes, but probably more egregiously, in that the people who really know, the scientists, we're going to fuck them off, because when all is said and done, the most important thing in any politicians life, isn't other peoples lives, its votes.

Everything this fucking wobble headed cunt is doing now, he's doing as a long term currying favor exercise to make amends for the shitheawk conduct of 10 months ago and the following months when he didn't have a fucking clue. This cunt is trying to claw back the fuck up of his administration over the last 10 months and lets not get started on the Brexit debacle. The fucking tithead.

 

This cunt has cost lives and so has his dimwitted cronies, they all want taking out, put against a wall and shot and left to the crows. 

Look at the comments about Chris Whitty on the daily mail or twitter by the covidiot loons. They absolutely hammer a man who (with his far more considerable knowledge of viruses) is trying to save as many lives as possible. He didn't get his degree with a crayon, he actually knows his shit. 

[Chip Butty]

3 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Look at the comments about Chris Whitty on the daily mail or twitter by the covidiot loons. They absolutely hammer a man who (with his far more considerable knowledge of viruses) is trying to save as many lives as possible. He didn't get his degree with a crayon, he actually knows his shit. 

That is the Daily mail to a Tee. 

 

If Covid got inside a Daily Mail reader, Covid would need to self isolate for at least two weeks. 

[Gnasher]

1 hour ago, Jairzinho said:

Or you marry and/or kill them.

Or you pretend they are a builder. You cant see a mate but its apparently ok to have six carpenters roaming around your house.

[Elite]

1 minute ago, Gnasher said:

Or you pretend they are a builder. You cant see a mate but its apparently ok to have six carpenters roaming around your house.

Where do you live? Bethlehem?

[Mook]

1 minute ago, Elite said:

Where do you live? Bethlehem?

I can't rep that enough.

 

Bravo.

[an tha]

36 minutes ago, Paulie Dangerously said:

So we're basically saying that those dying now is acceptable and we're just going to crack on. 

Playing devils advocate - what are you promoting a zero deaths policy before returning life to anything like normal.

 

Surely once you have vaccinated the most vulnerable to lower severity of illness and reduce desths and you are on way to vaccinating rest of society then you have to accept that there will be a number of covid deaths, like there is to all kinds of illnesses.

 

Peoples lives and everything that entails - education, work, having a job or place of work to go to, social interaction, kids development, relationships, peoples health and mental well being, our kids futures and so on and on and on and on (list is nearly endless of course) have to restart and sadly people will die from this illness like many, many others.

 

Minimising risk and doing all can to reduce the deaths is all that can be reasonably done, unless we stay in lockdown indefinitely....a situation that is unsustainable.

[niallers]

18 minutes ago, an tha said:

Playing devils advocate - what are you promoting a zero deaths policy before returning life to anything like normal.

 

Surely once you have vaccinated the most vulnerable to lower severity of illness and reduce desths and you are on way to vaccinating rest of society then you have to accept that there will be a number of covid deaths, like there is to all kinds of illnesses.

 

Peoples lives and everything that entails - education, work, having a job or place of work to go to, social interaction, kids development, relationships, peoples health and mental well being, our kids futures and so on and on and on and on (list is nearly endless of course) have to restart and sadly people will die from this illness like many, many others.

 

Minimising risk and doing all can to reduce the deaths is all that can be reasonably done, unless we stay in lockdown indefinitely....a situation that is unsustainable.

I agree with this. Its like saying we're reducing the speed limit to 20mph everywhere. That'll basically eliminate all motoring fatalities but that's not what is done. Its an accepted risk. Once everyone is vaccinated, society has to open back up to previous levels or we may as well be in this forever. 

[an tha]

3 minutes ago, niallers said:

I agree with this. Its like saying we're reducing the speed limit to 20mph everywhere. That'll basically eliminate all motoring fatalities but that's not what is done. Its an accepted risk. Once everyone is vaccinated, society has to open back up to previous levels or we may as well be in this forever. 

Saving lives is of course dead important and the vaccine and treatments will help massively in that.....as that happens we have to IMHO give people their chance to live their biographical lives free of draconian restrictions.

 

We sadly can't save every life, like we can't save every life that is lost to all the other bastard things that kill people.

 

You can't totally de-risk life.

[Bjornebye]

Don't let the massive spikes in deaths after restrictions got lifted have any relevance eh boys. 1k deaths a day? yeah fuck it I want to go the pub. 

[an tha]

3 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Don't let the massive spikes in deaths after restrictions got lifted have any relevance eh boys. 1k deaths a day? yeah fuck it I want to go the pub. 

Was there circa 20m of by far the most vulnerable vaccinated then?

 

Was there an ongoing programme to vaccinate more up to everyone then?

[Dr Nowt]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55652771