Coronavirus

[Bjornebye]

3 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Yeah, but the stupid bitch could have just called a taxi.

Not since this

 

 

 

[tokyojoe]

2 hours ago, cloggypop said:

Are the shops open by then? 

I presume not.

[Mudface]

Yay, early signs of good news.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/16/encouraging-signs-covid-vaccine-over-80s-deaths-fall-england

 

‘Encouraging’ signs for Covid vaccine as over-80s deaths fall in England
Fatality rate dropping more quickly than for younger age groups yet to receive jab, analysis shows


 Covid-19 deaths have fallen by 61% among over-80s since 24 January, 10 percentage points more than for those aged 20-64.
The UK’s vaccination programme appears to have started reducing coronavirus deaths, according to an expert who says the effect is significant enough not to be a result of lockdown alone.

Deaths from coronavirus have fallen by 62% among over-80s since 24 January, the point at which a third of that age group had some level of immunity against coronavirus, having received their first vaccine dose at least two weeks earlier, data analysis shows.

This drop is larger than that among groups with a lower level of vaccination. Among people aged between 20 and 64 the drop in deaths is 47%, while the drop among those aged 65 to 79 is 51%.

“Deaths in over-70s are now falling faster than in younger age groups, which is very encouraging and is likely to be influenced by vaccination – there has been a steep decline in outbreaks in care homes,” said Prof David Spiegelhalter, the chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.


As of 10 January, more than a third of those aged 80 and over in England – 1 million people – had received the first of their two vaccine doses. Adding two weeks for the inoculation to take effect, with a further two to three weeks being the average delay between a coronavirus infection and death from the virus, data from mid-February provides the first solid indication that the vaccine regime is turning the dial.


In comparison, fewer than 3% of under-80s in England had received a first jab by 10 January.

This analysis of deaths data tallies with ONS testing which shows that 41% of over-80s in England now test positive for coronavirus antibodies. The presence of antibodies shows some level of immunity and is higher in the over 80s than in any other group, indiciating that the vaccination programme is starting to pay off.

While Spiegelhalter’s referenced the over-70s, the Guardian analysis focuses on the over-80s because a significant proportion of that age group were vaccinated by early January.

After analysing the figures in the last week, George Batchelor, the director of health data company Edge Health, said he also believed the positive effects of the vaccine were starting to become apparent. “The drop in the proportion of Covid-19 deaths for the over-80s relative to other age groups since early February is a good sign that the vaccination programme is working,” he said. However, he also added: “There are reasons to still be cautious, deaths are still high and there are some concerns around the supply of vaccines.”

Some experts are more hesitant to identify the effect of the vaccine in the data, a stance echoed by the prime minister and England’s chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, at a Downing Street press briefing on Monday.

Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “It is still difficult disentangling the impact of lockdown from the impact of vaccine.” He warned the data was “noisy” and it would take more time to be sure: “There is some suggestion of relatively greater decline in hospitalisations in the older age groups compared to the under-65s in the last few days and also in deaths in over-80s, but this data is intrinsically noisy so I would not have confidence for a few days yet.”

However, others point to promising data from Israel that shows both hospitalisations and deaths among elderly people are falling after widespread vaccination of those who are most vulnerable.

“Although studies from Israel are promising, we are not sure what levels of effectiveness are being achieved in practice in the UK.”

A study released on Sunday by Israel’s largest healthcare provider indicated the Pfizer/BioNTech jab offered 94% protection against Covid-19, echoing the results of vaccine trials.

Why we see the vaccine effect in deaths first
The impact of the vaccine is less visible in metrics other than deaths. Big falls in hospital admissions in the last month are more likely to be a result of lockdown measures – imposed in England since early January – rather than vaccines, with younger groups having very similar rates of hospitalisation to older, more vaccinated groups, experts believe.


However, many older people with life-threatening coronavirus may not be sent to hospital, Spiegelhalter suggests. “It may seem the wrong order, but modelling suggests that we would expect vaccines to affect deaths before hospital admissions, since so many elderly cases do not get admitted to hospital. But there is a suggestion that admissions are now falling faster in the older groups,” he said.

Hospitalisation rates among those aged 85 and over remain much higher overall, because age makes people much more vulnerable to the virus. Over-85s still make up approximately 20% of all hospital admissions for coronavirus. This ratio has fallen only slightly since vaccination took effect at the end of January.


There are still more than 20,000 coronavirus patients in UK hospitals – higher than the level seen in the first peak.

The Guardian’s analysis uses NHS England hospital admission data for coronavirus, which is only available for age groups: 0-5, 6-17, 18-64, 65-84, 85+. Population data used to calculate the rate for each age group in England is from the ONS 2019 mid-year population estimates. Deaths and hospital admission data for coronavirus is from Public Health England.

[Harry's Lad]

Just had an email from the DHSC to advise me to continue shielding until 31/3 or until further notice.

 

I knew it was coming and I know there's light at the end of the tunnel and I've had my first jab, but it's like I'm under house arrest and my home has become a prison.

 

I'll have been stuck in here for a year by that time as I carried on shielding last time (after much nagging by my family).

 

I know people have had things much, much worse than I have and I feel proper cunt moaning about it, but fuck me I'm fed up.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

That bloke who got injured rescuing the lockdown breaking knobheads who got stuck up a mountain has been informed that he is likely to spend the rest of his life in a wheelchair. 

 

Selfish cunts. 

[cloggypop]

We are back in curfew. 

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, cloggypop said:

We are back in curfew. 

Haha carry on up the curfew. 

[cloggypop]

3 minutes ago, Shooter in the Motor said:

Haha carry on up the curfew. 

We might be out again on Friday. 

[Section_31]

"Worrying new variant"

 

Fuck off dickhead.

[Bruce Spanner]

Roll up, roll up for the leaks...

 

Seems like they’ve got collective amnesia, that or they need to use the billions of pounds worth of pretty useless tests that they threw money at against advice and with very little reliability.

 

‘UNBELIEVABLE, ZEFF: The most revelatory story in today’s papers is from the Times’ Henry Zeffman, who has got hold of documents detailing Downing Street’s plan for mass testing over the next few months — a key plank in its plan to lift restrictions. Playbook will run you through it …

Top line 1: 400,000 rapid lateral flow tests — which can turn around results in 30 minutes — will soon be posted to homes and workplaces across the country every day.

 

Top line 2: From March, around 68 percent of England’s population will be eligible for repeat rapid tests. Top of the priority list will be school children, who will be offered two tests a week when they go back on March 8, along with their teachers and parents.

 

Top line 3: From April and May, the mass testing program will be expanded again to give repeat lateral flow tests to large and small businesses.

 

Top line 4: The plan is provisionally being called “Are you ready? Get testing. Go,” and will be led by celebs, Zeffman reveals. A minister tells him: “The vaccination program is going better than we could have hoped, but testing is the key to getting the economy going again.”

 

On the money: Playbook is told that it’s still early days for the testing plan and the government needs to secure regulatory approval for mass rollout of lateral flow tests on this scale, but that Zeffman’s write-up is pretty much where ministers want to end up next week.

 

TEST FOR TICKET LATEST: The Guardian’s Jess Elgot has another line on the mass testing plan, reporting that ministers are looking at using music and sporting events as vehicles for mass testing to inform government policy — even after the vast majority of the population has had a jab.

 

FLASHBACK: Health Secretary Matt Hancock originally announced his so-called Operation Moonshot plan for mass testing on September 3 last year — 167 days ago. Back then, a Whitehall insider told the Daily Mail that the government was aiming for 4 million tests a day by February 2021. How did they get on? On Monday February 15, 457,144 coronavirus tests were carried out in the U.K., so around a 10th of the unofficial target.’

[johnsusername]

They're in denial over the lateral flow tests. They've come this far they can't turn round and admit they're not reliable. But to roll out a new plan with them seems insane. 

[Jairzinho]

Quote

 

"The plan is provisionally being called “Are you ready? Get testing. Go,” and will be led by celebs, Zeffman reveals"

 

Well, nothing about this seems utterly fucking shit.

[Mudface]

2 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

Well, nothing about this seems utterly fucking shit.

To be fair, that slogan will really get all the kidz on board. Even better if they can get some ultra-hip slebs like Eamon Holmes, Carol Vorderman and thingie out of Girls Aloud involved.

[DJLJ]

According to newly released numbers from eurostat, the European countries have had an additional 450k deaths from March to November last year. Most of those would be attributable to COVID I assume. More info on the numbers here, article in Danish though: https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/samfund/450.000-flere-end-normalt-doede-i-eu-mellem-marts-og-november/8475856

 

and the eurostat article itself: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20210216-2?redirect=%2Feurostat%2F

[Section_31]

MOONSHOT!

 

 

[Jairzinho]

5 minutes ago, Mudface said:

To be fair, that slogan will really get all the kidz on board. Even better if they can get some ultra-hip slebs like Eamon Holmes, Carol Vorderman and thingie out of Girls Aloud involved.

 

[Paulie Dangerously]

8 minutes ago, Mudface said:

To be fair, that slogan will really get all the kidz on board. Even better if they can get some ultra-hip slebs like Eamon Holmes, Carol Vorderman and thingie out of Girls Aloud involved.

 

My name's Rachel Riley and I'm here to say

[sir roger]

1 hour ago, johnsusername said:

They're in denial over the lateral flow tests. They've come this far they can't turn round and admit they're not reliable. But to roll out a new plan with them seems insane. 

They probably need the space in the warehouse

[Jenson]

2 hours ago, johnsusername said:

They're in denial over the lateral flow tests. They've come this far they can't turn round and admit they're not reliable. But to roll out a new plan with them seems insane. 

Depends on what you mean by not reliable. Used in the right way, the lateral flow tests can be a useful tool.

[Bruce Spanner]

21 minutes ago, Jenson said:

Depends on what you mean by not reliable. Used in the right way, the lateral flow tests can be a useful tool.

And this way is very much not the right way, as has been stated previously and demonstrated by our own legislators, and other countries, outright refusal to use them in this way as its costly and borderline useless in the grand scheme of things.

[Jenson]

12 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

And this way is very much not the right way, as has been stated previously and demonstrated by our own legislators, and other countries, outright refusal to use them in this way as its costly and borderline useless in the grand scheme of things.

Which is fair comment, but it's not right to dismiss the tests themselves as 'useless' or 'unreliable', as when used correctly they're pretty good.

[Jenson]

@Bruce Spanner This is from the Preliminary report from the Joint PHE Porton Down & University of Oxford SARS-CoV-2 test development and validation cell: Rapid evaluation of Lateral Flow Viral Antigen detection devices (LFDs) for mass community testing, which I think supports both our viewpoints  -

 

"To date, the performance characteristics of the Innova LFD in the evaluations performed to date are good with a low failure rate, high specificity 99.6% and high viral antigen detection. Furthermore, issues need to be addressed to understand batch to batch variation, acceptance of the tests by the general publicand the effect of operator/training effects upon performance characteristics. The delivery of appropriate training appears important to test performance. It is important to note the possibility that performance of these tests may improve with time as more research is performed within phase 4 evaluations. LFD implementation may offer advantages in national testing strategies focusing on risk reduction and warrant further testing in mass-testing scenarios.It also promises a massive increasein testing by enabling a distributed community-based use separate fromthe overburdened national and NHS testing laboratories."

 

https://www.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/oxford/media_wysiwyg/UK evaluation_PHE Porton Down University of Oxford_final.pdf

[Bruce Spanner]

16 minutes ago, Jenson said:

@Bruce Spanner This is from the Preliminary report from the Joint PHE Porton Down & University of Oxford SARS-CoV-2 test development and validation cell: Rapid evaluation of Lateral Flow Viral Antigen detection devices (LFDs) for mass community testing, which I think supports both our viewpoints  -

 

"To date, the performance characteristics of the Innova LFD in the evaluations performed to date are good with a low failure rate, high specificity 99.6% and high viral antigen detection. Furthermore, issues need to be addressed to understand batch to batch variation, acceptance of the tests by the general publicand the effect of operator/training effects upon performance characteristics. The delivery of appropriate training appears important to test performance. It is important to note the possibility that performance of these tests may improve with time as more research is performed within phase 4 evaluations. LFD implementation may offer advantages in national testing strategies focusing on risk reduction and warrant further testing in mass-testing scenarios.It also promises a massive increasein testing by enabling a distributed community-based use separate fromthe overburdened national and NHS testing laboratories."

 

https://www.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/oxford/media_wysiwyg/UK evaluation_PHE Porton Down University of Oxford_final.pdf

From the same report.

 

We’re in agreement they are worthwhile, if used correctly, but this isn’t the correct use.

 

Thats the issue, they would be self administered in these setting which give less than a two thirds hit rate, which is borderline useless in context and needs to be radically rethought as it’s a flawed solution to a very real and complex problem. 

 

‘It should be noted that the preliminary report from the joint PHE Porton Down and University of Oxford SARS-CoV-2 test development and validation cell found the sensitivity of the ‘Innova SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test’ dropped from 79% when used by laboratory scientists compared to 73% when used by trained healthcare staff compared to 58% when used by self-trained members of the public. This means there is a higher chance of false negatives when the tests are used by self-trained users until they develop more experience. Many care home members of staff are experienced at performing swabbing and testing and will be doing this on a regular basis.

Preliminary data from the University of Liverpool which showed a sensitivity of 48.9% was reassessed through recategorisation by cycle thresholds which led to a sensitivity improvement of circa 10%. This means a more accurate estimate of the sensitivity from the Liverpool pilot is circa 58.9%. In addition, the difference between expert reviewers administering the test and other non-clinical testers administering the test disappeared over the 2-week period – which suggests training is a key factor in ensuring higher sensitivity from the LFDs. While further work is undertaken to understand the evidence on sensitivity, it is important that LFD is used in conjunction with other IPC measures.

As part of the pilot deployment of LFDs for mass testing, a subset of individuals tested with LFD have also been tested with PCR. Various datasets from this roll out have been examined by Porton Down and Oxford test centres, none to date have shown a statistically significant difference in LFD performance when compared with the PCR test for individuals with a high viral load.’

 

[Herp McDerp]

For those of you wondering why your loved ones haven't been lined up for a vaccine yet

 

[Spy Bee]

Very good vaccine data: A study in Israel finds Pfizer's vaccine to be >95% effective. 0.1% of 602k vaccinated people tested positive compared to 3.9% of 528k unvaccinated people over same period. Only 7 serious cases out of 602k vaccinated people. via @ariehkovler