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Coronavirus


Bjornebye

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4 hours ago, sir roger said:

i realise that the new tiering vote will almost certainly go through, but what would happen if it didn't, would the country stay in lockdown ?

After a month long lockdown a return to a tiered system where the rules were as they were in those tiers before lockdown would for my money be the most sensible answer.

 

What tiers places go in should not necessarily be same as they were before lockdown though.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

I’m not an expert by any means but isn’t it exponential?  Even starting with one person passing it on to 3 people and them to 3 etc etc we very quickly get big numbers.  Your theory seems to assume that it has to hit a critical mass before it explodes. But we didn’t see that in the March did we? Or maybe we did. 

As I understand it, exponential growth happens at an R rate of just 2, but apparently here it ran between 2 and 3. So if we assume it's 3 and let's say on Dec 1st 2 people arrive from Wuhan with covid. By Dec 10, they will have passed it to 6 people. But some of them may have had it as early as Dec 2nd. Some perhaps as late at Dec 9/10th. But we know there'll be at least 6 cases by 10th. Those 6 in turn will give it to 18 people. And those 18 to 54. Now that's still exponential growth there was 2 cases and with in effect just 3 sets of transmission we now have 98 people have had the virus. But in all these cases, even if some were infected on day 1, there's still an incubation period and it would seem it's likely people are not infectious at that point. So that could take us weeks to get to that point.

 

The next 3 sets of transmission take us to 144,  432, 1296. So obviously by then, it's starting to get out of hand - but we have to remember it's just 3 transmission a person over the entire period of them being infected, not per day. So I would guess this would still take more than a month and maybe 6 weeks to get there. And of those nearly 2000 infections at that point, many will have been asymptomatic, many will have just thought they had a cold and we might be just getting towards the 1st deaths - but as the numbers are so low in those 1st few sets of transmission, there's still every chance it hasn't caused deaths and if it has they would be easily missed and assumed as something else - again, the people dying are normally not healthy people.

 

Remember covid wasn't reported until 31st December and identified till a week later. There's every chance it had made it here in December and infected small numbers by then and gone under the radar. In fact I would argue considering at the time there were 3 flights a week directly from Wuhan to the UK, it would seem more than likely someone could have brought it here before we knew the virus existed. 

 

There were (are) some models online for this when it 1st broke out, but I've struggled to find a good one today on my phone. 

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1 hour ago, Rico1304 said:

In other news I volunteered to donate plasma as the NHS is looking for blokes who’ve had, or suspect they’ve had COVID.  They got back to me today and still need volunteers so take a look on their website and volunteer if you’ve had it.  

Good man, they're still looking for blood donors as normal too if like me you haven't had COVID yet (as far as I know anyway), so if you can, give blood or plasma.

 

I'm booked in for my next donation next Thursday.

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2 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Oh right.  So, we don’t know things like number of emergency workers isolating, off sick, bed capacity- all the other things you’d need to decide a lockdown rather than a single data point. 

Not the reason Drakeford gave for the enhanced restrictions was that the virus was out of control.

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5 minutes ago, Numero said:

Are people now arguing that lockdowns don’t reduce the risks? Surely not? 

 

I've seen people on twitter seem to state something along the lines of "if lockdowns worked then why do we still have the virus" or other such absolute drivel.

 

Obviously the minimum recourse for such stupidity is losing their right to vote. Ham-headed cunts.

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5 minutes ago, Numero said:

Are people now arguing that lockdowns don’t reduce the risks? Surely not? 

An absolute draconian lockdown would obviously reduce the spread, but the kind of lockdowns we have had in Argentina and Europe in their respective winters, can arguably be shown to have had little impact on spread.

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1 minute ago, Aw Geez said:

 

I've seen people on twitter seem to state something along the lines of "if lockdowns worked then why do we still have the virus" or other such absolute drivel.

 

Obviously the minimum recourse for such stupidity is losing their right to vote. Ham-headed cunts.

Basic logic escapes people sometimes. Lots of times. 

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5 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

An absolute draconian lockdown would obviously reduce the spread, but the kind of lockdowns we have had in Argentina and Europe in their respective winters, can arguably be shown to have had little impact on spread.

Agreed, lockdowns need to be much more rigorous.  

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