Coronavirus

[Bruce Spanner]

Don’t be so negative, Nancy!

 

‘Oxford University said interim analysis from its phase 3 vaccine trial showed that the efficacy of their vaccine is 70%. But that came from combining the results of two different dosing regimes, one of which was 90% and the other was 62%. The 90% regime involved a half-dose first and then a full dose of the vaccine later.’

 

Not all bad.

[Section_31]

1 minute ago, Bruce Spanner said:

Don’t be so negative, Nancy!

 

‘Oxford University said interim analysis from its phase 3 vaccine trial showed that the efficacy of their vaccine is 70%. But that came from combining the results of two different dosing regimes, one of which was 90% and the other was 62%. The 90% regime involved a half-dose first and then a full dose of the vaccine later.’

 

Not all bad.

Yesh I'm only taking the piss.

 

Their press officer wants sacking for that, it is technically "up to" 90% effective but the 70 figure will stick.

 

Bizarrely it's more effective if you get a half dose then a full dose rather than two full doses. 

[Rico1304]

Here’s part of the problem we are facing here. 
 

This tweet is from a virologist, telling us that thread by a well respected scientist in another field is bollocks.  If you click through to the original thread, to a lay person it looks completely plausible. Nice diagrams, lovely scientific terms everything you need. But to someone in the know it’s all wrong. 
 

 

[Mudface]

35 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

Don’t be so negative, Nancy!

 

‘Oxford University said interim analysis from its phase 3 vaccine trial showed that the efficacy of their vaccine is 70%. But that came from combining the results of two different dosing regimes, one of which was 90% and the other was 62%. The 90% regime involved a half-dose first and then a full dose of the vaccine later.’

 

Not all bad.

Plus it appears to be a lot more stable than the Pfizer vaccine and can be stored at 2-8°C rather than -80-odd.

[Bruce Spanner]

11 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Plus it appears to be a lot more stable than the Pfizer vaccine and can be stored at 2-8°C rather than -80-odd.

And a tenth of the cost! 

[Spy Bee]

20 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Plus it appears to be a lot more stable than the Pfizer vaccine and can be stored at 2-8°C rather than -80-odd.

Which is great for less developed countries.

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, Spy Bee said:

Which is great for less developed countries.

 

10 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

And a tenth of the cost! 

Definitely. Hopefully, the 70% effectiveness is sufficient, as having two jabs to get to 90% would be a pain.

[Spy Bee]

4 minutes ago, Mudface said:

 

Definitely. Hopefully, the 70% effectiveness is sufficient, as having two jabs to get to 90% would be a pain.

You need two jabs regardless. With two full doses it had an efficacy of 62%, with a lower dose first it had an efficacy of 90%. I don't know if the numbers who had the lower dose first are high enough to claim it has a 90% success rate though.

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

You need two jabs regardless. With two full doses it had an efficacy of 62%, with a lower dose first it had an efficacy of 90%. I don't know if the numbers who had the lower dose first are high enough to claim it has a 90% success rate though.

Can you post a link to where you found that info ? 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Can you post where you found that info ? 

Peston tweeted it

[Bjornebye]

Just now, Spy Bee said:

Peston tweeted it

jesus wept 

[Bruce Spanner]

Here you go, here's the leak...

 

'SO TIER IT IS: Boris Johnson will today outline a new regional tier system of coronavirus restrictions to come into effect after England leaves lockdown on December 2. As Playbook revealed last Tuesday, the new tiers will be tougher than the old ones the country had before lockdown, with ministers then hoping to introduce a temporary easing of restrictions for a short period over Christmas. The other big announcement of the day is that by January the government wants to end the 14-day self-isolation requirement for people who’ve been in contact with someone who has tested positive for the coronavirus. It’s another very busy day (and week) in Westminster. Playbook takes you through how it will all play out …

 

WHEN THE PM WILL SPEAK: Johnson will make a statement to the Commons at 3.30 p.m. to announce the post-lockdown rules for England (virtually, as he is still self-isolating). There is currently not expected to be a vote in parliament on the measures until next week. Playbook hears the PM is then likely to make a televised address to the nation this evening, as he has done at other key moments of the pandemic.

 

WHAT HE WILL SAY: A No. 10 official tells Playbook we’ll get the “framework” of the new system from the PM, meaning he’ll explain what you will and won’t be allowed to do in each tier after December 2 — and why ministers feel England doesn’t need to remain in full lockdown, but still has to face strict regional measures. “The selflessness of people in following the rules is making a difference,” Johnson will say. “The virus is not spreading nearly as quickly as it would if we were not washing our hands, maintaining social distance, wearing masks and so on. And in England, where nationwide measures came into effect at the start of this month, the increase in new cases is flattening off.”

 

WHAT HE WON’T SAY: We won’t yet be told which areas of England are going into which tiers — that’ll come on Thursday, after ministers have received the latest COVID case data from government scientists. We also won’t be given the full details of the plan for Christmas today, i.e. how many households will be allowed to mix and for how long. A government official says this is because, while they hope to be able to announce a four-nation approach following a meeting between Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove and the devolved leaders on Sunday, the devolved leaders need some extra time to rubber-stamp the proposals. Playbook is told we could get the full Christmas announcement on Tuesday.

 

GOOD NEWS 1: Playbook will start with the positives, signed off at a meeting of the Cabinet last night. Gyms will be able to reopen in England in every tier, a government official confirms, after they successfully demonstrated they had made efforts to ensure they would operate in a “COVID-secure” way.

 

GOOD NEWS 2: All non-essential retail will be able to reopen in every tier, the official says, as ministers try to keep shops afloat in the crucial weeks running up to Christmas. 

 

GOOD NEWS 3: The 10 p.m. hospitality curfew is expected to be pushed back to 11 p.m., as per Anna Mikhailova’s Mail on Sunday scoop. The Telegraph’s Harry Yorke says last orders will still be at 10 p.m. — but at least that means we’re less likely to see a repeat of everyone leaving the pub at the same time which was, er, not very COVID-secure.

 

GOOD NEWS 4: Outdoor sport will be allowed in all tiers, the Times‘ Francis Elliott reports, as he puts it: “In a victory for exercise enthusiasts.”

 

GOOD NEWS 5: Religious services will be able to take place in all tiers, Yorke reports, though Christmas carols are on hold for now, with a decision “in the coming days.”

 

GOOD NEWS 6: The quarantine period for people returning to the U.K. from abroad is set to be slashed from 14 days to five, as the Mail’s Jason Groves revealed on Saturday. The Telegraph’s Charles Hymas says Transport Secretary Grant Shapps will confirm the new policy today, allowing British families to travel to high-risk “red list” countries to visit relatives from December 15 or 16. Once they’re home, they’ll be freed from quarantine on day five so long as they have a negative test result.

 

BAD NEWS 1: Unfortunately that’s about it. Aside from the above, the tiers will be toughened up compared with what was in place before lockdown — particularly for the hospitality sector. Groves says in the Mail, most areas in England will be placed into Tiers 2 or 3, meaning no indoor socializing with other households (apart from at Christmas). Groves says this could last “potentially until the spring.” The government’s SAGE advisory body is expected to publish papers today saying the previous tiers were not strong enough, the Times‘ Eleni Courea and Rhys Blakely report.

 

BAD NEWS 2: Cole and Yorke both hear that, curfew relaxation aside, the tiers have been significantly hardened for pubs and restaurants. “Tier 2 is more in line with previous Tier 3,” Cole explains, with pubs in Tier 2 only allowed to serve booze alongside a “substantial meal” — and punters only able to dine indoors with members of their own household. Cole says pubs in Tier 3 will be click-and-collect only, Yorke says restaurants in Tier 3 can only do takeaways — a major toughening of the top tier. Industry insiders tell the Sun the rules are a death knell for many pubs.

 

BAD NEWS 3: Yorke says cinemas will be closed in Tier 3, and Cole reckons hairdressers and beauty salons could also be shut. Note: This isn’t yet confirmed so we’ll have to wait for the PM’s statement to get the full details.

 

WHAT ABOUT CHRISTMAS? At Gove’s meeting with the first ministers yesterday, they agreed “a shared objective of facilitating some limited additional household bubbling for a small number of days,” the Cabinet Office said yesterday in the first official confirmation of a plan to lift the rules at Christmas. A government official tells Playbook the number of households allowed to mix is likely to be three — so your own household plus two others.

 

BUT WHEN? ITV’s Robert Peston looks to have got hold of the dates. He reckons “it is looking highly probable that all four U.K. governments’ special Christmas exemption from coronavirus restrictions will allow us to socialise with people from two households in addition to our own household over five days beginning on 23rd of December and ending on 27th December.”

 

CHRISTMAS PUB LUNCH? Cole suggests: “There are also hopes that these ‘festive bubbles’ will be able to go out for Christmas meals together — as long as they do not mingle with other households.” One to watch when the PM announces the Christmas rules, likely tomorrow.

 

TESTING ANNOUNCEMENT 1: Johnson will also be making two fairly major testing announcements today. The first is that the government wants to scrap the current rule that people who’ve been in contact with someone with COVID must isolate for 14 days (as Johnson is doing right now). The new plan is that contacts of someone who tests positive will be offered coronavirus tests every day for a week, and they will not need to isolate unless they test positive. It’ll be a while before this policy will come in, though — it’s being trialled in Liverpool next week, if that goes well then it’ll be extended to the NHS and care homes in December, and then rolled out to everyone in January. The Tel’s Laura Donnelly has a write-up.

 

TESTING ANNOUNCEMENT 2: Johnson will also pledge local leaders in Tier 3 areas will be able to access mass community testing to give them “a direct route out of the toughest restrictions.” Local authorities in the top tier “will be able to draw on the support of NHS Test and Trace and the Armed Forces” to roll out mass testing, based on a successful 30-minute rapid lateral flow tests trial in Liverpool. Peston says the idea is that “any local authority that is put into Tier 3 can ask the government for the kit and resources to test every single person in the area, to identify all of those who have the virus, including those with no symptoms, so that these asymptomatic people can be quarantined to drive down the spread of the virus.” Fair to say that if that works, it really could be the game-changer Moonshot Matt promised. Emphasis on the “if.”

 

THE BACKLASH: Steve Baker, deputy chair of the COVID Recovery Group of lockdown-skeptic Tory MPs, is doing a broadcast round this morning insisting the government publish a cost-benefit analysis of its new tiered strategy. Former Minister Nus Ghani writes in the Telegraph (not online): “I won’t be able to support any restrictions — tiered or otherwise — imposed on my constituents unless the government shows us there is a fresh strategy for dealing with the virus.” And former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith says in the Mail that the new system is “lockdown in all but name” and a “bitter blow for business.” These MPs claim they have around 70 Tory rebels ready to vote against the new restrictions next week — Playbook would stress the “claim” — but they should still pass the Commons with Labour votes.

 

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Labour meanwhile is calling on the government to appoint a dedicated “minister for the vaccine” to oversee its rollout, with Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth arguing it would “provide accountability and avoid repeating mistakes made over PPE procurement and Test and Trace.” Ashworth is doing the morning broadcast round for Labour.'

[Spy Bee]

There were zero serious cases/hospitalisations from those who had the Oxford vaccine. So that tells me two things, one is that it offers some level of protection to those people who have the vaccine but still get infected, and two that the people in the trial were not in the significant number of people who contract the virus in hospital.

[Bjornebye]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

There were zero serious cases/hospitalisations from those who had the Oxford vaccine. So that tells me two things, one is that it offers some level of protection to those people who have the vaccine but still get infected, and two that the people in the trial were not in the significant number of people who contract the virus in hospital.

Can you post the link to this info? 

[Spy Bee]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32466-1/fulltext

 

Also seems it was well tolerated by older adults.

 

* not sure if this link is correct. I've seen screen grabs posted by journalists.

 

This one defo contains that detail: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine

[Bjornebye]

4 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32466-1/fulltext

 

Also seems it was well tolerated by older adults.

 

* not sure if this link is correct. I've seen screen grabs posted by journalists.

 

This one defo contains that detail: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine

Just give up. 

[Spy Bee]

"A key element of Oxford’s partnership with AstraZeneca is the joint commitment to provide the vaccine on a not-for-profit basis for the duration of the pandemic across the world, and in perpetuity to low- and middle-income countries. "

[Spy Bee]

2 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Just give up. 

What?

[Bjornebye]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

"A key element of Oxford’s partnership with AstraZeneca is the joint commitment to provide the vaccine on a not-for-profit basis for the duration of the pandemic across the world, and in perpetuity to low- and middle-income countries. "

Who said that? 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Who said that? 

It's in the link I posted above.

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, Spy Bee said:

It's in the link I posted above.

The one that you said you aren't sure if its correct? 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

The one that you said you aren't sure if its correct? 

No, the one I edited and added moments later and that you have since quoted.

 

Why be such a bellend on a Monday morning?

[Bjornebye]

13 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

No, the one I edited and added moments later and that you have since quoted.

 

Why be such a bellend on a Monday morning?

I quoted you saying the link may not be correct. I wanted to check which link you got that quote from. 

 

Who are you calling a bellend? I'm asking you for detail to your posts. It's important stuff. 

[Curly]

1 hour ago, Bjornebye said:

Can you post a link to where you found that info ? 

https://mobile.twitter.com/GMB/status/1330776588275814400

[Brownie]