Coronavirus

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Wigan has just been put into tier 3.1415926535. 

[Colt Seavers]

13 hours ago, Barrington Womble said:

My kid got sent home from school today at lunch time because of a positive case in her class. Then I was told she's only locked down till next week because the kid hasn't been in school since last wednesday. What's the fucking point?

Kid in my lad's year has tested positive, but school have said none of the year have to isolate as when he took the test he was not at school and he wasn't in for 2 days before he got the results.

I'm not really sure how that works as surely no one is going to be still going in to school once they have symptoms 

[Section_31]

1 minute ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Wigan has just been put into tier 3.1415926535. 

Excellent.

[Bjornebye]

18 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

So you asked for evidence that lockdown works. I provide it and you are still saying lockdown doesn't work? Am I right here? 

Aah right so you neg this Spy Bee but don’t offer a reply? So from that I’ll take that you really did not like being proved wrong. 
 

Thanks. 

[Bjornebye]

So their opening gyms after the backlash. Makes sense. Nice of the virus to offer to leave gyms alone. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

It's a figure of speech you clown.

I think I just made it to the big leagues. @Strontium Dog™ called me a clown.

 

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

So their opening gyms after the backlash. Makes sense. Nice of the virus to offer to leave gyms alone. 

Haven't you heard? The government controls where the virus goes. 

[Davelfc]

7 minutes ago, Fluter in Dakota said:

Haven't you heard? The government controls where the virus goes. 

Boris was assimilated into the covid when he had it, like when Picard became Locutus. Now he can speak to the covid which is why he's warned it off gyms and told it not to bother schools. He struck a deal with it to leave the south alone and only hit those pesky cities that don't vote for the Tories up North. 

He speaks to it via 5G with his Huawei phone.  

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Jedd Drudge said:

Boris was assimilated into the covid when he had it, like when Picard became Locutus. Now he can speak to the covid which is why he's warned it off gyms and told it not to bother schools. He struck a deal with it to leave the south alone and only hit those pesky cities that don't vote for the Tories up North. 

He speaks to it via 5G with his Huawei phone.  

Resistance is futile. 

[Spy Bee]

1 hour ago, Bjornebye said:

Aah right so you neg this Spy Bee but don’t offer a reply? So from that I’ll take that you really did not like being proved wrong. 
 

Thanks. 

I'm struggling to comprehend how you can think that providing a link to one study proves your point, when there are many conflicting studies. 

 

You can say "the science is not conclusive, but I believe". You can argue that the study you provided is a high quality study, but to suggest that you have proven your opinion to be absolute fact, is just rubbish.

 

I'll no longer be engaging with you. Some of the people I disagree with on here offer high quality argument which makes me consider my position and to see things from alternative perspectives. Whereas debating wth you is akin to arguing with my two year old.

[Bruce Spanner]

Aaaaaaaarrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!

[cloggypop]

1 hour ago, Bjornebye said:

So their opening gyms after the backlash. Makes sense. Nice of the virus to offer to leave gyms alone. 

Where else are the gangsters going to launder cash? 

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, Spy Bee said:

I'm struggling to comprehend how you can think that providing a link to one study proves your point, when there are many conflicting studies. 

 

You can say "the science is not conclusive, but I believe". You can argue that the study you provided is a high quality study, but to suggest that you have proven your opinion to be absolute fact, is just rubbish.

 

I'll no longer be engaging with you. Some of the people I disagree with on here offer high quality argument which makes me consider my position and to see things from alternative perspectives. Whereas debating wth you is akin to arguing with my two year old.

I’ve actually laughed out loud at this. I did exactly what you asked somebody to do. I provided evidence that lockdowns work. You just don’t like that I did. Go and make up your own version of the world somewhere else if you don’t like being proven wrong on here. You’re also a massive hypocrite. I’m sure even a two year old would use death when talking about someone’s loved ones who you have disagreed with. 

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, cloggypop said:

Where else are the gangsters going to launder cash? 

Invest in Serco

[sh#t waffle]

24 minutes ago, Fluter in Dakota said:

Haven't you heard? The government controls where the virus goes. 

On christmas day the virus is going to call a truce and have a kickabout with the doctors.

[Spy Bee]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection?CMP=share_btn_tw

 

If you're pinning your hopes on a Covid vaccine, here's a dose of realism

David Salisbury

 

A targeted immunisation programme may offer some protection, but it will not deliver ‘life as normal’

• David Salisbury is a former director of immunisation at the Department of Health

 

 

For those holding on to hope of an imminent Covid-19 vaccine, the news this weekend that the first could be rolled out as early as “just after Christmas” will have likely lifted the spirits.

The UK’s deputy chief medical officer, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, reportedly told MPs a vaccine developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca could be ready for deployment in January, while Sir Jeremy Farrar, Sage scientific advisory group member and a director of the Wellcome Trust, has said at least one of a portfolio of UK vaccines could be ready by spring.

Much has been said about how the world will return to normal when a vaccine is widely available. But that really won’t be true. It is important that we are realistic about what vaccines can and can’t do.

Vaccines protect individuals against disease and hopefully also against infection, but no vaccine is 100% effective. To know what proportion of a community would be immune after a vaccination programme is a numbers game – we must multiply the proportion of a population vaccinated by how effective the vaccine is.

The UK currently has among the highest national coverage of flu vaccine in the world, vaccinating around 75% of the over-65s against flu every year; most countries either do worse or have no vaccination programmes for older people. It is reasonable to expect that this level of coverage could be achieved for a Covid-19 vaccine in that age group in the UK.

Covid vaccine tracker: when will a coronavirus vaccine be ready?

 

 

Read more

Therefore, if the Covid-19 vaccine is 75% effective – meaning that 75% of those vaccinated become immune – then we would actually only protect 56% of that target population (75% of 75%). This would not be enough to stop the virus circulating. Almost half of our highest risk group would remain susceptible, and we won’t know who they are. Relaxing social distancing rules when facing those risks seems a bit like Russian roulette.

Now let’s look at people younger than 65 in medical risk groups. In a good year, the UK vaccinates 50% of them against flu. That means just over a third of them are going to be protected (50% of 75%). Just to make matters worse, regulators such as the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency have said that they would accept a 50% lower level for efficacy for candidate Covid-19 vaccines. If that efficacy level is fulfilled, we have to multiply coverage by 50% efficacy, not 75%, and suddenly it all gets more concerning.

As well as protecting individuals, vaccines can protect communities, through the interruption of transmission. One of the best examples comes from the UK meningitis C vaccination campaign of the late 1990s. There was a 67% reduction in the number of cases in unvaccinated children and young people because they were being protected by their contacts who had been vaccinated and were no longer transmitting infection.

If we want to see population protection from a Covid-19 vaccination, we are going to need high levels of protection (coverage x efficacy) across all ages – vaccinating not just the at-risk groups, as is being planned.

To stop transmission, we must vaccinate anyone who can transmit infection. Anything less means that our goal is only individual protection and not the interruption of transmission. A recent announcement from the head of the UK vaccine taskforce, that the strategy will be targeted vaccination, makes it abundantly clear that the UK vaccine strategy at the moment is not to try to interrupt transmission, despite having hundreds of millions of Covid-19 vaccine doses on contract. With less than 10% of the population showing evidence of having been infected, targeted vaccination will not allow “life as previously usual” to return.

Get Society Weekly: our newsletter for public service professionals

 

 

Read more

Even if countries do decide to switch from a personal-protection policy to a transmission-interruption strategy, obstacles remain. Much will depend on the successful vaccination (probably with two doses) of people who have not previously seen themselves to be at elevated risk. The challenge will be persuading the young, for example, to be vaccinated, not for their own benefit, but for the benefit of others.

Adherence to recommendations for any Covid-19 interventions – social distancing, lockdowns, home working, cancelled holidays or vaccinations – depend on trust. If politicians are telling us that the present impositions on our lives are only going to last until we have vaccines, then the reality is that a false hope is being promulgated.

Vaccines are probably the most powerful public health intervention available to us. But unless their benefits are communicated with realism, confidence in all recommendations will be put at risk.

While hope and optimism are much needed in these dark times, it is important to be transparent. We need to communicate the clear message that although targeted vaccination may offer some protection, it will not simply deliver “life as we used to know it”.

• David Salisbury is a former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme

 

 

[Karl_b]

Sheffield and South Yorkshire go in to tier 3 from 00:01 on Saturday. Great.

 

We're supposed to be travelling to a tier 2 region, for a few days, on Friday before this kicks in. I'm not being offered a refund, so that should mean I'm allowed to travel right? I'm leaving a tier 2 region, to go to a tier 2 region and will be returning to a tier 3 region? It's just the two of us, no mixing with other households inside, etc. I just need a change of scenery and some time outside!

 

The thought of a second holiday being cancelled (both booked last year), and not being able to do much during half term next week, is enough to make me cry! 

[Elite]

23 minutes ago, cloggypop said:

Where else are the gangsters going to launder cash? 

Kebab shops.

[Rico1304]

1 hour ago, cloggypop said:

Where else are the gangsters going to launder cash? 

Sun beds shops are where the smart money goes. 

[TheHowieLama]

241 deaths??

[A Red]

Fish and chip shops always seem the best way to me of laundering money

[Barrington Womble]

The numbers just keep getting worse both nationally and in the north west. This is fucking depressing. 

[Mudface]

8 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

241 deaths??

There's always a jump after a weekend, it's still about 30% higher than the corresponding day last week.

 

Edit: the 7 day rolling average of daily deaths is now at 135- at the start of September it was 7.

[Stickman]

1 minute ago, Barrington Womble said:

The numbers just keep getting worse both nationally and in the north west. This is fucking depressing. 

Don’t panic Boris has got this 

 

[Barrington Womble]

7 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

241 deaths??

It would seem so..but I'm sure the question on here from some will be are they really dead.