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Coronavirus


Bjornebye

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5 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

SD are you happy to admit that we are seeing a second wave? 

 

It's way too early to say that.

 

3 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

I'm no economist but what happens when every country runs out of money?

 

You just print more.

 

saupload_somali_wheelbarrow.jpg

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Guardian write-up on the above- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/ending-covid-19-via-herd-immunity-is-a-dangerous-fallacy

 

Quote

 


Ending Covid-19 via herd immunity is 'a dangerous fallacy'
Prominent scientists sign open letter saying strategy is ‘unsupported by evidence’

A letter published in the Lancet by 80 signatories from the international science community says there is no evidence that immunity after recovering from Covid-19 lasts. Photograph: AP
The concept of ending the Covid pandemic through herd immunity is “a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence”, say 80 researchers in a warning letter published by a leading medical journal.

The international signatories of the open letter in the Lancet say the interest in herd immunity comes from “widespread demoralisation and diminishing trust” as a result of restrictions being reimposed in many countries because of surging infections in a second wave.


WHO chief says herd immunity approach to pandemic 'unethical'

The suggestion that the way out is by protecting the vulnerable and allowing the virus to transmit among those less at risk is flawed, they say. “Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of healthcare systems to provide acute and routine care.”

The signatories have expertise spanning public health, epidemiology, medicine, paediatrics, sociology, virology, infectious disease, health systems, psychology, psychiatry, health policy, and mathematical modelling. They include a number of scientists who sit on the breakaway Independent Sage group in the UK, such as former chief scientist Sir David King, former WHO director Anthony Costello, virologist Prof Deenan Pillay, behavioural scientist Prof Susan Michie and professor of European public health Martin McKee.

Why herd immunity strategy is regarded as fringe viewpoint

There is no evidence that immunity after recovering from Covid-19 lasts, they say, adding that people who are vulnerable would be at risk for the indefinite future and cannot be kept safe.

“Prolonged isolation of large swathes of the population is practically impossible and highly unethical,” they say, calling for action to suppress the levels of virus in the population.

“It is critical to act decisively and urgently,” they say. “Effective measures that suppress and control transmission need to be implemented widely, and they must be supported by financial and social programmes that encourage community responses and address the inequities that have been amplified by the pandemic.”

Those restrictions will be needed “to reduce transmission and fix ineffective pandemic response systems, in order to prevent future lockdowns”. If the numbers of infections can be pushed down to a low level, it will be possible to keep the virus suppressed through “an efficient and comprehensive” test, trace, isolate and support system, “so life can return to near-normal without the need for generalised restrictions. Protecting our economies is inextricably tied to controlling Covid-19. We must protect our workforce and avoid long-term uncertainty.”

There are success stories – among them Japan, Vietnam and New Zealand, they say.

“The evidence is very clear: controlling community spread of Covid-19 is the best way to protect our societies and economies until safe and effective vaccines and therapeutics arrive within the coming months. We cannot afford distractions that undermine an effective response; it is essential that we act urgently based on the evidence.”

Other signatories to the letter from the UK include epidemiologist Prof David Hunter, cancer researcher Prof Charles Swanton of the Crick Institute and global health professor Devi Sridhar. Those from the US include global health professor Gavin Yamey of Duke University, Prof Rochelle P Walensky from Harvard medical school and Dr Ali Nouri of the Federation of American Scientists. Researchers from Italy, Israel, Malaysia, Spain, Ireland, Germany, France, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Canada have also signed.

 

 

The bolded in the second paragraph sounds very similar to the Brexit and Trump libertarian populist tactics- a simplistic idea that sounds superficially plausible, but would only benefit the disaster capitalists. It's also a great opportunity for the contrarian grifters and client journalists to get their noses in the trough and get greater exposure for their profiles.

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7 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

It’s not too early to say we are seeing a second wave at all. 

It's quite obvious we're in a second wave, even by his own 'preferred' definition, although no doubt there will be something he didn't say because it was so obvious and it's what he really meant so it doesn't count because the goalposts are over there now.

 

7 day average daily deaths are up from 7 to over 90 in 6 weeks, hospitalisations have increased 10-fold in the same period and infections are about 15 times what they were on the first of September.

 

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You know going on holiday is the work of the devil... Does that apply to doing any 'for pleasure activity' outside your own front door? So going to a cafe, is that evil too? How about going to the shops? Is going to church evil? How about playing sports?

 

Going to work is alright though, right? So it's basically don't do anything which might constitute living, and then you will be morally sound and nobody will cast any aspersions about you?

 

 

Just checking.

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8 hours ago, Sugar Ape said:

Not sure who to believe now. On the one hand we’ve got dozens of actual epidemiologists and public health experts.
 

On the other Gupta, Dr Johnny Bananas, Brexit hardman Steve Baker and Harold Shipman. It’s a tough one. 
 

 

How can they be so sure that a vaccine will arrive? We've never, ever eradicated a respiratory illness via a vaccine.

 

It's also hard to claim a consensus, when despite the signatures of certain discredited pseudonyms on the Great Barrington Declaration, there were also a great number of scientists and healthcare professionals. 

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7 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

How can they be so sure that a vaccine will arrive? We've never, ever eradicated a respiratory illness via a vaccine.

 

It's also hard to claim a consensus, when despite the signatures of certain discredited pseudonyms on the Great Barrington Declaration, there were also a great number of scientists and healthcare professionals. 

The BCG vaccine seems to work pretty well for tuberculosis. 

 

You can find professionals arguing in favour of smoking and denying climate change if you look hard enough. Probably a fair few hanging out at the neoliberal Great Barrington. 

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6 minutes ago, cloggypop said:

The BCG vaccine seems to work pretty well for tuberculosis. 

 

You can find professionals arguing in favour of smoking and denying climate change if you look hard enough. Probably a fair few hanging out at the neoliberal Great Barrington. 

You can find professionals who can prove not only is the earth only 6000 years old but that it is also flat. 

Teach the controversy.

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28 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

You know going on holiday is the work of the devil... Does that apply to doing any 'for pleasure activity' outside your own front door? So going to a cafe, is that evil too? How about going to the shops? Is going to church evil? How about playing sports?

 

Going to work is alright though, right? So it's basically don't do anything which might constitute living, and then you will be morally sound and nobody will cast any aspersions about you?

 

 

Just checking.

Making things up now? Because nobody has said any of that. 

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7 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

If you need to question what and what isn’t the sensible, decent thing to do then you really should be asking yourself a lot more questions. 

I'm asking for your opinion. My opinion would be that going on holiday is fine.

 

What is your opinion? Of the activities I listed, how many of those are morally reprehensible?

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3 hours ago, Mudface said:

Guardian write-up on the above- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/ending-covid-19-via-herd-immunity-is-a-dangerous-fallacy

 

 

The bolded in the second paragraph sounds very similar to the Brexit and Trump libertarian populist tactics- a simplistic idea that sounds superficially plausible, but would only benefit the disaster capitalists. It's also a great opportunity for the contrarian grifters and client journalists to get their noses in the trough and get greater exposure for their profiles.

Good article. It terrifies me the amount of people who will ignore that though and still try and follow the words of a two bob arsehole with vested interests in the evil alternative just to justify their own existence. 

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3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I'm asking for your opinion. My opinion would be that going on holiday is fine.

 

What is your opinion. Of the activities I listed, how many of those are morally reprehensible?

you know full well my opinion on holiday. I think it’s a selfish act to swan off during a pandemic regardless of being allowed. As yourself why ? The answer is profit. The government wanted people flying to rescue airlines but quickly realised our economy needed a boost so banned a lot of it again. The reality is it should have been banned until this has subsided a lot more. I have no doubt that the actions of dickheads is why we are in a second wave. Australia haven’t allowed anyone to leave the country since March 17th. Imagine boasting about having two weeks off fully paid after visiting somewhere with a higher infraction rate and potentially bringing that virus back. It’s selfish acts like that which I find morally repugnant. 
 

Go to the cafe, shops, parks etc by all means but wash your hands, wear a mask and use some common decency. 
 

It really isn’t that hard just to make a few adjustments for a short while for the greater good of everyone instead of being an arrogant “I’m alright jack” self centred cunt of a human being. 

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