Coronavirus

[Barrington Womble]

1 minute ago, Spy Bee said:

Colds appearing in late September shocker!

I'm not quite sure the point you're making. 

[Spy Bee]

It's people with symptoms of Covid. How is an app going to differentiate between those symptoms and symptoms of the common cold for fucks sakes?

[Rico1304]

10 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I'm talking about care homes at the moment.

 

There's no point engaging regarding the wider idea of protecting the most vulnerable, when you think a third of the UK population classes as high risk.

2.5m people with cancer

6m have asthma

c0.7m babies born so about that number of pregnant women

11m people living with long term impairment or disability

 

Therell be some overlap, there’ll be some disabled who aren’t vulnerable to Covid but you can get to 20m very easily

[Spy Bee]

 

[Rico1304]

4 minutes ago, Barrington Womble said:

I'm not quite sure the point you're making. 

Neither is he. 

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, Spy Bee said:

It's people with symptoms of Covid. How is an app going to differentiate between those symptoms and symptoms of the common cold for fucks sakes?

The symptoms are different. The app data is combined with swab data to estimate probabilities.

 

Groundhog day this.

[Barrington Womble]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

It's people with symptoms of Covid. How is an app going to differentiate between those symptoms and symptoms of the common cold for fucks sakes?

If the app said covid no longer kills people, gives you free vitamin d when you use it, you'd be rallying around telling everyone of its magic. You're only bothered in any data that tells us everything is all ok. 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Mudface said:

The symptoms are different. The app data is combined with swab data to estimate probabilities.

 

Groundhog day this.

You've never been able to provide a methodology for this, but I am referring specifically to the 'with symptoms' bit.

 

 

The symptoms are the same, so they cannot be differentiated.

 

 

[Bjornebye]

20 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

 

There's no point engaging regarding the wider idea of protecting the most vulnerable, when you think a third of the UK population classes as high risk.

 

18 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

What? 

Come on Spy Bee... Where have I said anything about a third of the population? 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

 

Come on Spy Bee... Where have I said anything about a third of the population? 

My apologies. It wasn't you that said it.

[Mudface]

6 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

You've never been able to provide a methodology for this, but I am referring specifically to the 'with symptoms' bit.

 

 

The symptoms are the same, so they cannot be differentiated.

 

 

What? I don't run the damn thing, if you want the methodology, you'd need to contact them and see if they're willing to share their models. 

 

And no, the symptoms are not the same. If you respond that you feel ill on the app during the daily check in, it asks you a list of 20 or so questions about your symptoms and also whether or not you've had a Covid test- I posted these earlier in the thread when you were casting shade on it last time.

 

Again, I don't run it, but I'd be pretty sure it then calculates a probability of the person having Covid based on previous responses correlated against swab test data and then uses that in aggregate to provide its headline figures. As ever, the actual figures are less important than the trend, which is clearly up by any metric.

[Spy Bee]

Do you have a cough?

Do you have a temperature?

Do you have a headache?

 

If you put yes, then surely you are considered to have Covid symptoms?

[Mudface]

On 15/09/2020 at 12:51, Mudface said:

In the app, you're asked to report each day whether you've had a test or not, and if you're feeling unwell. If you say you're unwell, you're then given a list of about 20 questions about your symptoms- fever, chills, your temperature, persistent cough, unusual fatigue, headache, nausea/ vomiting, dizziness, shortness of breath, sore throat, loss of smell or taste, unusual hoarseness, chest pains or tightness, diarrhoea, muscle aches or pains, skin welts or face/ lip swelling, sores or blisters, confusion/ disorientation/ drowsiness, photo sensitivity, loss of appetite, and a general 'other symptoms' box.

 

You'd have to contact them for specifics, but I'd imagine symptoms reported for positive cases are given greater weighting than others when it comes to estimating the current number of cases- as indicated on their 'About' page- https://covid.joinzoe.com/about. It isn't a simplistic symptom sorter. You can certainly quibble about the exact number of figures, but all the way through this, the trend reported via the app has mirrored the trend reported through testing. There's no reason to suspect it to be any different now.

 

In any case, the Tweets @Sugar Ape linked to yesterday show a significant rise in admissions, people aren't getting hospitalised due to colds.

 

 

 

[Spy Bee]

Can you not see that there is a huge crossover in symptoms?

[Spy Bee]

I can draw you a venn diagram if you want?

[Bjornebye]

"You're so Venn... I bet you think this cold is about you" 

[Mudface]

7 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I can draw you a venn diagram if you want?

I'd send it to Zoe, I'm sure they'll be astounded at their obvious error.

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Mudface said:

I'd send it to Zoe, I'm sure they'll be astounded at their obvious error.

I'm not saying there is an error. I am saying it is impossible to isolate Covid symptoms from cold symptoms in this manner. I'm sure they'd accept that.

[Mudface]

6 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I'm not saying there is an error. I am saying it is impossible to isolate Covid symptoms from cold symptoms in this manner. I'm sure they'd accept that.

Well, you'd better get on to King's College, the Scottish and Welsh governments, the NHS, the DHSC and God knows how many other departments and bodies that analyse or supply data with your devastating revelations as I'm sure no one will have considered that and corrected for it.

 

 

[Bjornebye]

I reckon Spy Bee wakes up at 4:30am, drinks 6 raw eggs then goes for a run with before he logs on to this thread. 

 

 

[Spy Bee]

I'm not saying you cannot distinctly have Covid symptoms, or cold symptoms. I am saying that often it will be very difficult to tell. I should have just done the venn diagram in the first place shouldn't I?

 

[Spy Bee]

RiS would approve of my MS Paint skills there.

[Barrington Womble]

29 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Do you have a cough?

Do you have a temperature?

Do you have a headache?

 

If you put yes, then surely you are considered to have Covid symptoms?

This is like the response of a 12 year old. 

[Spy Bee]

4 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

I reckon Spy Bee wakes up at 4:30am, drinks 6 raw eggs then goes for a run with before he logs on to this thread. 

 

 

it keeps me entertained while I have a quite week. I'm afraid this may be my last day of such significant contributions for a while. I'm sure you're all devastated by this news.

[Barrington Womble]

29 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I'm not saying there is an error. I am saying it is impossible to isolate Covid symptoms from cold symptoms in this manner. I'm sure they'd accept that.

Honestly, you're starting to sound like a flat earther now. It's impossible to go keep travelling west and end up where I started. Because it just is. Can you not consider for one moment these are specialists in their field and can achieve what you can't even imagine?