Coronavirus

[Spy Bee]

3 minutes ago, mattyq said:

Well, I hope you're right but, unfortunately, I don't think you will be

I do think herd immunity is viable but I think it will take 4 or 5 years to get there. Again, it'd be great if we had it now or we can get there in 2 or 3 years but all the evidence points to this not being the case

I think London was up to 17% of the pop with antibodies but the rest of the country was a lot lower

 

Antibodies which can be tested for only last 10 weeks. T-cell and memory b cell are not currently being tested for, but offer a high level immuno-response.

[easytoslip]

[Section_31]

9 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Antibodies which can be tested for only last 10 weeks. T-cell and memory b cell are not currently being tested for, but offer a high level immuno-response.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/09/02/iceland-study-on-coronavirus-immunity-suggests-covid-19-antibodies-last-at-least-four-mont

 

COVID-19 antibodies, proteins that help humans fight off the virus, last for at least four months and do not fade quickly, scientists in Iceland said after in an exhaustive study of coronavirus immunity.

The results of the study are encouraging for vaccine efforts aiming to trigger an immune response that produces antibodies to protect against the virus.

 

Some good news too about damage to lung and heart repairing over time. 

 

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/damaging-heart-lung-problems-linked-18889719

[Spy Bee]

8 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/09/02/iceland-study-on-coronavirus-immunity-suggests-covid-19-antibodies-last-at-least-four-mont

 

COVID-19 antibodies, proteins that help humans fight off the virus, last for at least four months and do not fade quickly, scientists in Iceland said after in an exhaustive study of coronavirus immunity.

The results of the study are encouraging for vaccine efforts aiming to trigger an immune response that produces antibodies to protect against the virus.

 

Some good news too about damage to lung and heart repairing over time. 

 

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/damaging-heart-lung-problems-linked-18889719

That contradicts a number of other studies. They have tested people who had antibodies and then didn't have them 10 weeks later, so I don't know how that fits in with the above?

 

Anyway, there are several mechanisms for robust immuno-responses.

[Section_31]

 

We are finally unravelling the mystery of what causes severe covid-19 9/9/2020   An out-of-control human peptide called bradykinin could be responsible for some of the varied and sometimes deadly symptoms seen in people who have contracted the coronavirus. We already have drugs to control bradykinin, which are being tested as treatments for people with covid-19. Bradykinin normally helps to regulate blood pressure, and in some people, the coronavirus seems to be pushing bradykinin production into overdrive. This would create a kind of “bradykinin storm” in the body that may lead to a number of symptoms common in covid-19. Renuka Roche at Eastern Michigan University says such a storm could explain many aspects of covid-19 that seem disjointed, such as muscle pain, women sometimes having milder illness than men, and African Americans being more likely to develop complications. In July, a team led by Daniel Jacobson at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee published a study in which they mined gene expression data in samples of lung fluid from nine people with covid-19 in China, and compared them with samples from a control group that didn’t have the disease. They found an over-expression of genes that are responsible for bradykinin production, along with under-expression of genes that produce enzymes to keep bradykinin levels in check. Because bradykinin dilates blood vessels and makes them more permeable, high levels of bradykinin could lead to fluid leakage in a blood-vessel-rich environment like the lungs. It can also break down the blood-brain barrier, suggesting a possible pathway for some of the coronavirus’s puzzling neurological symptoms. Fortunately, drugs that help regulate hyaluronic acid and bradykinin predate covid-19. In 2011, the US Food and Drug Administration approved the anti-inflammatory drug icatibant for acute attacks of the hereditary genetic disease angioedema, a condition that involves its own bradykinin storms. In July, a team led by Roger Brüggemann at Radboud University Medical Center in the Netherlands did a preliminary trial of icatibant on nine Dutch coronavirus patients who were being treated with oxygen for difficulty breathing. The team found a reduction in the need for oxygen supplementation in eight of those people. Studies are now under way in the US and Europe to test another bradykinin signal-blocking drug called lanadelumab. “We hope … once this is completed, it will be the next step towards a multinational study involving several hundreds of patients,” says Brüggemann.

[Redder Lurtz]

Right, I'm going to sound incredibly dense here but what about the argument that we're seeing more cases as we're testing more people? I know that's an argument Trump used but does he have a point or not? Educate me please. 

[Mudface]

Just now, Redder Lurtz said:

Right, I'm going to sound incredibly dense here but what about the argument that we're seeing more cases as we're testing more people? I know that's an argument Trump used but does he have a point or not? Educate me please. 

It's possible, but the positivity rate (i.e. the number of positive tests/ total number of tests) is also rising. Also, I'm not sure we are actually testing more people as they don't give that data out any more- just the overall number of tests, rather than the actual number of people.

[Sugar Ape]

23 minutes ago, Redder Lurtz said:

Right, I'm going to sound incredibly dense here but what about the argument that we're seeing more cases as we're testing more people? I know that's an argument Trump used but does he have a point or not? Educate me please. 

Cases are rising by whatever measure you use, and testing actually seems to be going down (slightly) lately. 

[Spy Bee]

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tfms-consensus-statement-on-mass-testing-27-august-2020

[DJLJ]

3 hours ago, Scott_M said:

BBC saying the suspension of the vaccine trial is common and likely to start back up again within days.

Yeah it will happen several times over, if it follows normal practice for these trials. Which is what you want, you want them to be cautious and make sure it doesn't introduce some other illness or disorder, that could be worse. Also, for what it is worth, it is good to see they as well as other major pharmaceutical companies came out and said they would do it correctly and follow protocol and not be pressured into releasing something half baked, which you just know that Trump will try and do.

[JohnnyH]

It'll be grand.

[TheHowieLama]

I wonder why the ONS lists 10k more Covid deaths than the Hopkins total?

[Mudface]

Of all the current uncertainties, I think it's pretty safe to see that this ain't happening, especially given the likely involvement of G4S and fucking Serco- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/09/boris-johnson-pinning-hopes-on-covid-testing-moonshot-leaked-papers-show. These useless cunts couldn't even get masks and gowns supplies sorted a few months back.

 

Boris Johnson pinning hopes on £100bn 'moonshot' to avoid second lockdown
PM believes huge rapid testing programme is ‘only hope’ before a vaccine, leaked document says

What is No 10’s ‘moonshot’ Covid testing plan and is it feasible?
Boris Johnson: ‘It should be possible to deploy these tests on a far bigger scale than any country has yet achieved.’ 
Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

The prime minister is said to be pinning his hopes on a project that would deliver up to 10m tests a day – even though the current testing regime is struggling to deliver a fraction of that number and is beset by problems.

 Boris Johnson lets rip another demented monologue in Commons
The documents say the “Mass Population Testing Plan” could cost £100bn – the equivalent to the UK’s entire education budget.

If delivered, the moonshot programme would be unprecedented in scale and, as reflected by its name, is considered by some officials to be at the outer level of possibility.

Some of the technology it would require does not yet exist.

Details of the moonshot proposals emerged as Johnson on Wednesday urged people to abide by new restrictions that outlaw gatherings of more than six people indoors and out, and said they were imperative if the country was to avoid further toughening of the rules.

In a gloomy assessment of the deteriorating position, England’s chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, said the recent rise in positive cases was a matter of huge concern.

He also admitted the period “between now and spring is going to be difficult” and said the public should expect the new measures to be in place for a number of months – raising fears they may not be lifted before the new year.

1:55
 Gatherings limited to six in England to curb Covid-19, says PM – video
With the testing system already under huge strain and critics accusing the government of incompetence, the prime minister used his press conference to set out the bare bones of the moonshot plan, which, he claimed, would allow people to lead more normal lives.

“There are a number of challenges,” he said. “We need the technology to work. We need to source the necessary materials to manufacture so many tests. We need to put in place an efficient distribution network. And we need to work through the numerous logistical challenges.”
But he added: “It should be possible to deploy these tests on a far bigger scale than any country has yet achieved – literally millions of tests processed every single day.”

He said the moonshot programme could enable theatres and sports venues to test audience members on the day and allow in all those testing negative, as well as allowing workplaces to operate more normally.

However, the practicalities of delivering such an ambitious project in such a short time are evident in two leaked documents – a slide show presentation dated August, and a confidential “UK mass testing narrative” which were initially leaked on Wednesday to the British Medical Journal.

The documents, seen by the Guardian, describe the moonshot project as “a top priority for the prime minister, who is embedding No 10 staff within the project and has committed to removing any barriers to implementation.”

One of the documents reports that he has asked for “a Manhattan Project-type approach to delivering the level of innovation/pace required to make this possible”.

“The prime minister has tasked the secretary of state for health and social care with delivering a Mass Population Testing Programme, currently called Operation Moonshot, before the end of the year.

“This is described by the prime minister as our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine, something the country cannot afford. He would also like this to support the opening up of the economy and allow the population to return to something closer to normality.”

Responding to news of the plan, Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of the British Medical Association, said it is unclear how Operation Moonshot would work given the “huge problems” currently seen with lab capacity.

“And the notion of opening up society based on negative tests of those without symptoms needs to be approached with caution – both because of the high rate of ‘false negatives’ and the potential to miss those who are incubating the virus,” he said.

The leaks confirm private sector organisations are to be encouraged to carry out testing to help their own trade and protect their workforce.

“Businesses could support our testing strategy by providing ‘testing at the door’ to enable large scale ‘high-risk’ events to take place, such as football matches, theatre productions, concerts or conferences,” the strategy says. “The costs of travel or leisure activities could include the costs of accessing tests beforehand.”

Saliva swab testing has been trialled in Southampton and will be piloted in Salford next month. The documents say the programme could be extended to Basingstoke, before going UK-wide with schools and universities being mass tested.

A list of companies to engage includes G4S, Serco, Boots, Sainsbury’s, AstraZeneca, GSK and Smith and Nephew. It promises “a huge new operational infrastructure” with testing available in pharmacies, schools and workplaces as well as health settings.

The Treasury is said to be modelling the impact of mass testing on the economy while the Sage scientific advisory panel is modelling its impact on R, the measure of virus spread, the documents report.

But the document cautions: “Critically, for this testing to reduce infection rates, it must lead to behaviour change – citizens will need to participate regularly, and if they test positive they will need to isolate rapidly and reliably.”

The Department of Health and Social Care said it did not comment on leaked documents, but a spokesperson confirmed the ambition to scale up testing. “This country now has the capacity to test for coronavirus on an unprecedented scale and we are going further by investing £500m in next-generation tests, like saliva tests and rapid turnaround tests that can deliver results in just 20 minutes,” he said.

“We are increasing capacity to 500,000 tests a day by the end of October, and the ability to get rapid, on-the-spot results, will significantly increase our ability to fight coronavirus, stop the spread and for our economy to recover.”

The project would ramp up testing to between 2m and 4m daily tests by December. That would allow mass testing of all homes in areas or whole cities with rising cases of Covid-19, internal documents show. By the end of the year there would also be weekly testing of all teachers and tests for all visitors to hospitals and care homes.

[clangers]

This is classic Boris, the garden bridge, the bridge between NI and Scotland. In fact does 'Project Moonshot' include a bridge? No, that's not fair I'd forgotten about his international floating airport on the Thames.

 

His solution to most difficult problems are massive, undeliverable and deeply unrealistic fantasy targets that in reality are a huge financial feeding frenzy for the usual suspects e.g. Boris's mates in the private government consultancy sector.

 

I can sense truly impressive PowerPoint presentations being knocked together this evening.

 

it's one of the many, many reasons why he's not fit for office. We'll be paying back the cost of this non-deliverable for generations to come.

[Captain Turdseye]

I’m intending to invent a big box with a question mark on it and when you stand underneath it, jump up and head butt it, a flashing star with a smiley face pops out of the top and makes you invincible for a limited period of time. Then I’m aiming to replicate this on a grand scale so all of us great British people can enjoy Christmas properly. 
 

It’s a moonshot but I’ll do everything in my power to make it happen. 

[cloggypop]

1 hour ago, Captain Turdseye said:

I’m intending to invent a big box with a question mark on it and when you stand underneath it, jump up and head butt it, a flashing star with a smiley face pops out of the top and makes you invincible for a limited period of time. Then I’m aiming to replicate this on a grand scale so all of us great British people can enjoy Christmas properly. 
 

It’s a moonshot but I’ll do everything in my power to make it happen. 

I think you should aim to produce up to 10 million of them a day. 

[Dougie Do'ins]

BBC News - Coronavirus: Concerns over Boris Johnson's 'moonshot' testing plans

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54097050

[Gnasher]

Going by the rule of messuring government competence throughout the covid crisis I'm going to go out on a limb and predict operation moonshine/moonshit/moonstomp/moonboy/moonshot may suffer a few teething problems.

[Section_31]

5 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Going by the rule of messuring government competence throughout the covid crisis I'm going to go out on a limb and predict operation moonshine/moonshit/moonstomp/moonboy/moonshot may suffer a few teething problems.

I suspect it will involve lots of public money finding its way into private pockets for zero return.

[Bruce Spanner]

‘A moonshot, in a technology context, is an ambitious, exploratory and ground-breaking project undertaken without any expectation of near-term profitability or benefit and also, perhaps, without a full investigation of potential risks and benefits.’

 

I am fully confidant and determined to see this world beating farce take shape.

 

Useless cunts.

 

Just be fucking competent. 

[Captain Turdseye]

1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

I suspect it will involve lots of public money finding its way into private pockets for zero return.

One hundred billion pounds is the number they’re saying.
 

That’s £800m for the boys and £200m for keeping up appearances. 
 

Edit: Also, I’m shit at maths. 

[Bruce Spanner]

You know why we’re having testing problems?

 

Because the government set up three private owned labs, mates of mates obviously, who are responsible for all of the lab work. Surprisingly this has turned to shit.

 

They were offered labs and expertise up and down the land, free in most cases, and turned it down through sheer arrogance.

 

So now we have these private entities raking in millions for testing that can’t be done whilst some of the most advanced screening  facilities in the world sit idle.

 

I fucking hate these cunts, spiv’s to a man.

[Dave D]

10 hours ago, Captain Turdseye said:

I’m intending to invent a big box with a question mark on it and when you stand underneath it, jump up and head butt it, a flashing star with a smiley face pops out of the top and makes you invincible for a limited period of time. Then I’m aiming to replicate this on a grand scale so all of us great British people can enjoy Christmas properly. 
 

It’s a moonshot but I’ll do everything in my power to make it happen. 

Plus we all need dungarees. Dont forget that

 

[Mudface]

Ugh. We're supposed to be about 5-6 weeks behind France. I hope we use that time wisely and don't fuck around, like at the start of the pandemic when we could see what was coming, but hoped to get through it by British pluck. Still not convinced this is a 'second wave', it looks to be the first wave coming back as restrictions ease.

 

 

 

 

[Mudface]

Says the frequent Twitter poster...