Coronavirus

[Spy Bee]

1 hour ago, TheHowieLama said:

Where did you pull this number from? 

"Pull this number from"? I provided a link.

[mattyq]

22 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Yeah more work needs to be done on exactly where the outbreaks are taking place, it’s a bit unhelpful to just say ‘workplaces’. 
 

Saying that, it cases are rising like in France I think it’s reasonable to say work at home if you can. 
 

And as a fellow veggie I agree. Close all meat plants, you can all eat quorn you cunts.

Don't mind a bit of quorn every now and then 

One of my best mates who's the son of a sheep farmer(Welsh) has bee a pescatarian for the last few years. Seems to be the way it's all heading

[TheHowieLama]

4 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

"Pull this number from"? I provided a link.

You did?

 

4 hours ago, Spy Bee said:

There is a total lack of balance about the other health implications of making everything about Covid. Yes people will die of Covid, but it is far from the only cause of death. The impact on cancer screening and treatment is huge, the impact on mental health is already massive and will continue to grow. 41% of the excess deaths which happened in lockdown were not Covid related. We desperately need to find balance & my personal opinion is that a suppression strategy is not valid. New Zealand and Scotland going back into lockdown because of a small number of cases seems to be pretty fucking mental as far as I am concerned.

 

[Spy Bee]

Ah my bad, I thought I had. Maybe I did the other day. Anyway... https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

[DJLJ]

2 hours ago, Spy Bee said:

Was, being the operative word.

Correct and as can be seen here:

The 30% year-on-year drop for July compares with a fall of 33% recorded in June, 42% in May and 57% in April. 
 

It is coming back to normal levels. It will be a while before totally at the same level, but it is coming back

[Bjornebye]

55 minutes ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

Loads of these outbreaks in France and elsewhere are in slaughterhouses and meat packing plants. Could get a bit messy doing that work from home.

 

The obvious answer is to close down all meat processing facilities for the foreseeable future.

I thought lockdown etc didn't change anything? I mean thats what you were implying the other day so why should they shut these down? 

[DJLJ]

2 hours ago, Mudface said:

Interesting data on BAME infections-  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/up-to-6-of-englands-population-may-have-had-covid-study-suggests

 

About 3.4 million people in England – 6% of the population – have had Covid-19, with infections more common among members of black, Asian and minority ethnic communities, according to the results of a large home antibody testing study. 

This number seems to tie in quite nicely with a similar number from Spain, https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40031792.html which say about 5% of the Spanish population has had it.

[Spy Bee]

3 minutes ago, DJLJ said:

This number seems to tie in quite nicely with a similar number from Spain, https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40031792.html which say about 5% of the Spanish population has had it.

And yet it it known that antibodies only show a percentage of people who have got it, as people who fight it with T Cells won't have antibodies, and even those who fought it with antibodies may not have any of those antibodies remaining that would show up on the standard test.

[TheHowieLama]

20 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Ah my bad, I thought I had. Maybe I did the other day. Anyway... https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

Nice one pal. I am not sure that what you understood from that article is quite what was being said.

 

The paper is here in full.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf

 

 

 

We estimate there were approximately 10,000 non-COVID-19 excess deaths of care home residents in March and April 2020. We estimate there could be an additional 16,000 non-COVID-19 excess deaths over 12-months in care home residents if the outbreak follows the CSS scenario.

[Strontium]

5 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

And yet it it known that antibodies only show a percentage of people who have got it, as people who fight it with T Cells won't have antibodies, and even those who fought it with antibodies may not have any of those antibodies remaining that would show up on the standard test.

 

My sister-in-law knows a couple of people who have had it, both tested negative for antibodies after recovering.

 

A study which says "6% of people have antibodies, therefore 6% of people have had the virus" isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

[RobbieOR]

12 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

I thought lockdown etc didn't change anything? I mean thats what you were implying the other day so why should they shut these down? 

 

Any chance you can stop baiting him? It's getting tiring to read. 

[TheHowieLama]

As an aside, what do you make of the UK government instilling the 28 day rule into their reported figures?

[Bjornebye]

5 minutes ago, RobbieOR said:

 

Any chance you can stop baiting him? It's getting tiring to read. 

Piss off then. When someone throws comments around implying they are so right about everything then it is only right to pick up on it. 

 

 

[Sugar Ape]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

As an aside, what do you make of the UK government instilling the 28 day rule into their reported figures?

It’s bringing England in line with what they already use in Wales and Scotland, however from next week they’ll also be publishing deaths with a 60 day cutoff and, I think, publishing the figures using the same methods they have been. 
 

What do you think of this?

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-uk-wide-methodology-agreed-to-record-covid-19-deaths

 

Analysis of data in England found 96% of deaths occurred within 60 days or had COVID-19 on the death certificate. 88% of deaths occurred within 28 days.

[TheHowieLama]

4 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

 

What do you think of this?

 

TBH I never thought about it - does seem strange that the UK wouldn't have followed the same protocols from the off.

 

The only reason I heard about it was from the Hopkins daily reports and this note:

 

England has removed 5,377 deaths from its time series.

 

 

[Sugar Ape]

Just now, TheHowieLama said:

TBH I never thought about it - does seem strange that the UK wouldn't have followed the same protocols from the off.

 

The only reason I heard about it was from the Hopkins daily reports and this note:

 

England has removed 5,377 deaths from its time series.

 

 

The one they were using is definitely wrong. Not 100% convinced by moving to 28 days, I think 60 days is a better measure to use. By releasing the figures using different methods they’re just giving people the chance to pick the ones that best suit them for whatever point they are making. 

[TheHowieLama]

1 minute ago, Sugar Ape said:

The one they were using is definitely wrong. Not 100% convinced by moving to 28 days, I think 60 days is a better measure to use. By releasing the figures using different methods they’re just giving people the chance to pick the ones that best suit them for whatever point they are making. 

Isn't 60 days what they (England) were using?

[Bjornebye]

I'd be interested to see if anyone anywhere has any accurate stats for this. It seems like a lot of the experts are too busy trying to out muscle each other rather than anyone being solid and accurate. 

 

To be honest though, it's impossible to know. If its true about deaths being marked up as covid just because they had symptoms but died from other causes then thats a cluster fuck of epic proportions and lends credence to the tin-foil brigade calling it an illuminati plot. 

[Spy Bee]

Quote

Analysis of data in England found 96% of deaths occurred within 60 days or had COVID-19 on the death certificate. 88% of deaths occurred within 28 days.

I don't see how that is possible, but maybe that refers to the whole pandemic. If you look at the graph I posted earlier, the PHE exaggerations have accounted for the vast majority of UK deaths that won't be counted under the standardised method.

 

You could still get hit by a bus 27 days after you had a positive test and they would count you as a Covid death, but it's a step in the right direction. 

[Bjornebye]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I don't see how that is possible, but maybe that refers to the whole pandemic. If you look at the graph I posted earlier, the PHE exaggerations have accounted for the vast majority of UK deaths that won't be counted under the standardised method.

 

You could still get hit by a bus 27 days after you had a positive test and they would count you as a Covid death, but it's a step in the right direction. 

You have to wonder how the government publishing them stats is in anyway benefitting them? 

[Sugar Ape]

11 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Isn't 60 days what they (England) were using?

No, there was no time limit. If you died 100 or 120 days after being diagnosed, for whatever reason you were counted as a Covid death. 

7 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I don't see how that is possible, but maybe that refers to the whole pandemic. If you look at the graph I posted earlier, the PHE exaggerations have accounted for the vast majority of UK deaths that won't be counted under the standardised method.

 

You could still get hit by a bus 27 days after you had a positive test and they would count you as a Covid death, but it's a step in the right direction. 

Probably the pandemic as a whole I’d imagine. I’m suspicious of anything that comes from this government tbh. I still think the majority of deaths within 60 days of people who have tested positive are from the virus but I don’t think we’ll really know the truth until after this is over and they can look back on the excess deaths etc... over a longer time period. 

[Spy Bee]

2 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

You have to wonder how the government publishing them stats is in anyway benefitting them? 

That is where my suspicions lie. Surely they would have wanted to the numbers to be as low as possible for a while, which would have been easy as they could have just said that they would standardise with the other 3 nations... but they didn't do that, and that makes me very curious.

[TheHowieLama]

@Sugar Ape Good one man.

 

I am willing to set the over/under for folks hit by a bus three months after testing positive at 1.

[Bjornebye]

Just now, Spy Bee said:

That is where my suspicions lie. Surely they would have wanted to the numbers to be as low as possible for a while, which would have been easy as they could have just said that they would standardise with the other 3 nations... but they didn't do that, and that makes me very curious.

Yeah same mate. Its is all seriously messed up. Crazy when you look at other nations who have seemingly breezed through it with minimal impact. We are all over the place. 

[Spy Bee]

2 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

No, there was no time limit. If you died 100 or 12 days after being diagnosed, for whatever reason you were counted as a Covid death. 

Probably the pandemic as a whole I’d imagine. I’m suspicious of anything that comes from this government tbh. I still think the majority of deaths within 60 days of people who have tested positive are from the virus but I don’t think we’ll really know the truth until after this is over and they can look back on the excess deaths etc... over a longer time period. 

In July there were 2324 deaths, of which 1600 would no longer count as Covid. That's huge! Just 743 met the standardised criteria.