Coronavirus

[Section_31]

Quite a few second wave fans work like this I suspect.

 

 

[Sugar Ape]

24 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

I don't see the need for so much sniping on this thread to be honest. If people were suspicious this might not turn into such a big deal at the start it's for two reasons - there's form for scareomongering about pandemics that fizzle out, swine flu, SARS, MERS, to a lesser extent the Ebola flare up a few years back for which we were subjected to another Live Aid Concert. 

 

Secondly, the nature of our media which is focused on clickbait headlines and for which fear sells. It's happening all the time. You'll see a story about a second wave in Beijing or Germany, then nothing about the fact that it's dropped several days later. It's dropped in Leicester too and they're easing lockdown, again, nowhere to be seen on News at 10 last night. 

 

Italian doctors who've been literally in the trenches in hospitals in the North say that the viral loads are getting much lower and they're dismissed as cranks, stories about Sweden's cases dropping despite never having had a lockdown are barely reported (if it had been the other way around,  there'd be books about it by now - Sweden, a warning from history.) Stories about the virus being remarkably stable making it much easier to vaccinate against are barely reported on. That WHO story I posted above about it having a death rate of 0.6% wasn't on the news this morning, but there was a WHO story about a one-liner from one of the head honchos saying 'we might never find a cure'. 

 

Wanting to get the facts and see things from both sides doesn't make you hopelessly naive. 

Clickbait works both ways though and while there may not be a second wave in China, some of the stuff you said doesn’t appear true to me either. 
 

The Italian doctors for example saying the viral load is less, the article I read on it (might not have got as much traction in the press as you wanted but the fact I read an article proves it was out there, in fact just had a quick look and The Telegraph and Reuters had an article on it at least) was one doctor saying it. No peer review report, nothing from the WHO or the Italian government just his own theory. 
 

Here’s a Washington Post article with people more qualified than the doctor making the claim disputing his theory. So maybe it never got widespread MSM coverage because, on balance, most places thought it wasn’t true?
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/experts-dispute-reports-coronavirus-is-becoming-less-lethal/2020/06/01/8f8ace7c-a432-11ea-b619-3f9133bbb482_story.html?outputType=amp

 

You can do the same on Sweden, they had a light lockdown but they still had measures in place. It’s not true to say they didn’t do anything. Their economy dropped massively like other countries which, to me, shows that people were still mostly following the guidance and avoiding pubs and working from home etc... as much as possible. They still had similar guidance to a lot of other nations such as avoid public transport and social distancing it just wasn’t enforced but left up to the individuals to follow. 
 

They banned gatherings of more than 50 people, shut down universities and high schools when it first started but left elementary and primary schools open, had restrictions on visiting care homes and table only service in pubs and restaurants.
 

People believe what they want to believe on the whole so some will want to believe there’s a second spike in China and some will want to believe the viral load is getting less in Italy.

[Strontium]

2 minutes ago, mattyq said:

Mate, if everybody in the UK got infected, circa 67 million people, at a death rate of 0.6% then we looking at about 400 thousand people.

 

Yep, silly me, I was working with the implied fatality rate around 0.3%, which I suspect is closer to the truer figure, but we'll have to wait and see. Nevertheless, the talk of 500,000 dead was... overly pessimistic, shall we say.

 

If 15-20% of the population has been infected, then I don't think we have that far to go at all, as it happens, since it's becoming increasingly clear that t-cell immunity means that you don't need the predicted 60% to get infected to achieve herd immunity.

[Jose Jones]

17 minutes ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

Sixth consecutive week of deaths being below the five-year average.

 

2.4% of deaths registered in week 30 mention Covid-19 on the certificate.

 

Flu and pneumonia are presently killing five and a half times as many people as coronavirus.

Those are just people who had flu earlier in the year but got hit by a bus last week.

[Section_31]

2 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Clickbait works both ways though and while there may not be a second wave in China, some of the stuff you said doesn’t appear true to me either. 
 

The Italian doctors for example saying the viral load is less, the article I read on it (might not have got as much traction in the press as you wanted but the fact I read an article proves it was out there, in fact just had a quick look and The Telegraph and Reuters had an article on it at least) was one doctor saying it. No peer review report, nothing from the WHO or the Italian government just his own theory. 
 

Here’s a Washington Post article with people more qualified than the doctor making the claim disputing his theory. So maybe it never got widespread MSM coverage because, on balance, most places thought it wasn’t true?
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/experts-dispute-reports-coronavirus-is-becoming-less-lethal/2020/06/01/8f8ace7c-a432-11ea-b619-3f9133bbb482_story.html?outputType=amp

 

You can do the same on Sweden, they had a light lockdown but they still had measures in place. It’s not true to say they didn’t do anything. Their economy dropped massively like other countries which, to me, shows that people were still mostly following the guidance and avoiding pubs and working from home etc... as much as possible. They still had similar guidance to a lot of other nations such as avoid public transport and social distancing it just wasn’t enforced but left up to the individuals to follow. 
 

They banned gatherings of more than 50 people, shut down universities and high schools when it first started but left elementary and primary schools open, had restrictions on visiting care homes and table only service in pubs and restaurants.
 

People believe what they want to believe on the whole so some will want to believe there’s a second spike in China and some will want to believe the viral load is getting less in Italy.

I agree with the last par, but there's been loads of negative stories made out of non peer reviewed reports and stories which have just been cobbled together from the single utterance of a lone academic. 

 

The news operates around fear, it's sadly been the same over here for years and has played its part in some people not taking things seriously early on, I still remember the CJD '10 million Brits dead by 2010' headlines. 

 

There are certain news organisations worse than others, but essentially many will veer back and forth to whatever is likely to shit you up.

 

"Pandemic may need schools to close"

"School closures will create a lost generation"

"Don't open schools warns expert"

"Kids that don't go to school will have lives ruined forever says boffin".

 

Rinse and repeat.

[3 Stacks]

1 hour ago, Neil G said:

So we’ve gone from “it’s nothing to worry about” to “it’s unstoppable”?

Yeah, and conversely someone else in this thread once panicked that he'd heard it was airborne HIV and now he's had a holiday in Spain. Covid's really broken some brains. 

[Sugar Ape]

1 minute ago, Section_31 said:

I agree with the last par, but there's been loads of negative stories made out of non peer reviewed reports and stories which have just been cobbled together from the single utterance of a lone academic. 

 

The news operates around fear, it's sadly been the same over here for years and has played its part in some people not taking things seriously early on, I still remember the CJD '10 million Brits dead by 2010' headlines. 

 

There are certain news organisations worse than others, but essentially many will veer back and forth to whatever is likely to shit you up.

 

"Pandemic may need schools to close"

"School closures will create a lost generation"

"Don't open schools warns expert"

"Kids that don't go to school will have lives ruined forever says boffin".

 

Rinse and repeat.

Of course, negative news sells, no doubt about it. Same on here, the FF has always been twice as busy after a defeat than a win. Just the nature of things. 
 

Personally though, that’s why I’m saying we need to be cautious still over opening things up because loads of the reasons people give both ways, either for opening up more or shutting things back down, are just based on theories and opinions and not facts. And while that is the case I’d rather we erred on the side of caution. 

[mattyq]

18 minutes ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

Yep, silly me, I was working with the implied fatality rate around 0.3%, which I suspect is closer to the truer figure, but we'll have to wait and see. Nevertheless, the talk of 500,000 dead was... overly pessimistic, shall we say.

 

If 15-20% of the population has been infected, then I don't think we have that far to go at all, as it happens, since it's becoming increasingly clear that t-cell immunity means that you don't need the predicted 60% to get infected to achieve herd immunity.

Well, thankfully the 500,000 does look overly pessimistic

However, it's not over yet and won't be until we get a reliable vaccine so we don't know what the final figure will be

65,000 is still a catastrophe. These are people who are all mothers, fathers, wives, husbands etc. It's roughly the same amount as UK civilian deaths in the WW2. So in a few months we've had the same number of civilian deaths as we had in the whole of the War

As to your t-cell immunity theory. It is just that, a theory. We deal in facts, remember

And there are plenty of medics and scientists who consider it wishful thinking at best 

 

 

[Spy Bee]

54 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

Yeah, and conversely someone else in this thread once panicked that he'd heard it was airborne HIV and now he's had a holiday in Spain. Covid's really broken some brains. 

Imagine making opinions and decisions based on information available at that time. Almost like basing thoughts on evidence. Cosmic!

[Duff Man]

Incidentally, have we been able to rule out airborne AIDS? I mean I've been pretty good with wearing a mask so far, but if airborne AIDS is actually a thing I'm getting done up like a fucking storm trooper next time I head out.

[Neil G]

2 hours ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

Even by the standards of the Covid Chicken Lickens that's mighty nonsense.

 

The common cold is unstoppable. It's also nothing to worry about. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

 

The virus is nothing to worry about for the overwhelming majority of people. Even the WHO are now admitting the death rate is only 0.6% (and the implied fatality rates I've seen suggest it's even lower than that). Even if everyone in the UK got infected - a statistical impossibility - that's only 200,000 deaths. Do I really need to bump all the old predictions of 500,000 DEAD UNLESS WE LOCK DOWN NOW!!!!11
 

I was making the contrast between your “no worse than a bad flu season” prediction and “can’t be stopped” statement.  If the virus can’t be stopped then even with a low mortality rate the death toll is clearly going to be a lot higher than the worst flu season, not just from Covid itself but also the additional preventable deaths resulting from the added burden placed on the NHS.

 

Your individualistic worldview is showing through big time here. Any given individual might have a very low chance of dying from Covid, but at a societal level it was obvious from very early on that this was going to be a major national and international crisis with far-reaching repercussions.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Mudface said:

Apparently it's unstoppable until it's infected maybe 15% of the population, then it'll mysteriously disappear.

That's not what happens in the Alien movies, there's normally only one left. Even when more than one survive, they're normally killed in the aftermath.

 

Covid-19 is like facehuggers. You heard it here first.

[johnsusername]

65,000 dead. GREAT JOB, EVERYBODY! 

 

[Strontium]

6 minutes ago, Neil G said:

I was making the contrast between your “no worse than a bad flu season” prediction and “can’t be stopped” statement.

 

I think we've had enough false dichotomies for one day.

[aRdja]

12 minutes ago, Neil G said:

I was making the contrast between your “no worse than a bad flu season” prediction and “can’t be stopped” statement.  If the virus can’t be stopped then even with a low mortality rate the death toll is clearly going to be a lot higher than the worst flu season, not just from Covid itself but also the additional preventable deaths resulting from the added burden placed on the NHS.

 

Your individualistic worldview is showing through big time here. Any given individual might have a very low chance of dying from Covid, but at a societal level it was obvious from very early on that this was going to be a major national and international crisis with far-reaching repercussions.

How many casualties do we need for it be officially more deadly than seasonal flu? It’s at c.700k deaths worldwide now from around 7 months, so you run rate that.. 1.2m deaths a year, fuck that’s fucking awful isn’t it? Stay safe people.

[VERBAL DIARRHEA]

3 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

Cant wait to see what lies get posted on here today. 

You’re a handsome bastard mate.

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, VERBAL DIARRHEA said:

You’re a handsome bastard mate.

Fucker 

[TheHowieLama]

40 minutes ago, aRdja said:

How many casualties do we need for it be officially more deadly than seasonal flu? It’s at c.700k deaths worldwide now from around 7 months, so you run rate that.. 1.2m deaths a year, fuck that’s fucking awful isn’t it? Stay safe people.

They do not have a true number on this, especially worldwide. I know they have estimated the flus worst year to have been around 350k - the majority in "third" world. US keeps stats and the worse I believe was 55k.

Think UK was @35k but @Stront19m Dog™will know as he has made the comparison.

[TheHowieLama]

38 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Fucker 

Nobody thinks your a twat.

[Strontium]

11 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

They do not have a true number on this, especially worldwide. I know they have estimated the flus worst year to have been around 350k - the majority in "third" world. US keeps stats and the worse I believe was 55k.

Think UK was @35k but @Stront19m Dog™will know as he has made the comparison.

 

Global flu deaths in normal years between 290k and 650k per annum, so we're at the upper end of that with covid.

[Rico1304]

2 minutes ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

Global flu deaths in normal years between 290k and 650k per annum, so we're at the upper end of that with covid.

In August. 

[TheHowieLama]

3 minutes ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

 

Global flu deaths in normal years between 290k and 650k per annum, so we're at the upper end of that with covid.

Yep, apologies as I typed worse when it was the average - blame my old addled pumpkin 

 

We compiled influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates 

 

We estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year 

 

 

Notice how those include the word "associated". So to make a comparison, a portion of these died with the flu, not from it. 

[Strontium]

5 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

In August. 

 

Although it began at least as early as November 2019.

 

Total deaths so far this year are 35 million, so covid is responsible for ~2%.

[mattyq]

3 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

In August. 

 

I see Public Health England estimate 17k died from Flu every year from 2014 to 2019 so in England Covid causes roughly 3 times more deaths

Obviously, to get a more accurate picture you'd need a vaccine for Covid and several more years so you could average mortalities etc

[mattyq]

Interesting article in New York Times comparing Covid to other natural disasters

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html

 

It concludes that in the modern history of natural disasters it will have few rivals