Coronavirus

[Bjornebye]

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. So they say. 

[Anubis]

37 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

If I get eaten by an anaconda in my sleep but had Covid then the anaconda is a free man and can see the pacific. 

To be fair, we’d adopt it as the forum mascot and then get it treated for constipation.

[Strontium]

I don't know what more I can offer than the official NHS coronavirus death stats page, which includes their criteria for how they record deaths.

[TheHowieLama]

My anaconda don't want none unless you've got buns hun.

[PestiRed]

Regardless of a few misrecorded deaths, the excess deaths numbers from ONS over the period of the first wave is what Hancock needs to be explaining 

 

What I didn’t know until today was that Trump invented Covid 19 to hide police brutality

[Bjornebye]

28 minutes ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

I don't know what more I can offer than the official NHS coronavirus death stats page, which includes their criteria for how they record deaths.

Show me the part where they explicitly say that any cause of death is dismissed and recorded as covid if the deceased has tested positive for covid. 

[Barrington Womble]

1 hour ago, Fluter in Dakota said:

Where are you getting these reports from? Button Moon?

 

The stats I have seen clearly state that if a death mentions Covid-19 on the death certificate then it's recorded as a Covid related death. Just because someone is Covid-19 positive when they die, it's not automatically recorded as a Covid-19 caused death.

 

What the Govt are doing right now in terms of checking how deaths are recorded is quite simple - they're trying to find a way of a) wriggling out of what has come before and b) trying to cover up what happens in the future.

 

The Brazilian president stopped recording the number of daily deaths. Are you suggesting that they are justified in that decision because perhaps most of their deaths are probably not Covid-19 related either?

I thought we were producing 3 sets of numbers...

1) if someone has tested positive they're included. Matt Hancock has insinuated this means people who died from being run over after being tested positive would count in the numbers. These numbers originate from PHE. 

2) the ONS then try to adjust these figures by looking at people's certificates. So if "covid" is on the certificate but they have not met the PHE criteria of being tested, they are included. 

3) ONS are also illustrating the excess deaths. Although I'm pretty sure that's just publicly available information anyway. Dead 2020 v average dead of 2015-2019. 

 

The right wing, Hancock and the "it's dying out and was just a cold" brigade are all clinging to this mental "omg, we're counting people who get run over" line. Like there are billions of people getting killed in car accidents despite people barely leaving their house since march. In fact one of the positives of covid are road deaths are down! 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Spy Bee said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/matt-hancock-calls-urgent-inquiry-phe-covid-19-death-figures

 

Unfortunately only GMC registered doctors can view this article but it completely contradicts the Guardian's article...

 

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/phe-reported-covid-19-deaths-too-low-as-death-count-nears-50000/20041237.article

[mattyq]

Remember, all of these numbers are made up

They actually died of excessive happiness and a lot came back to life anyway

 

 

[Guest]

There's a note in the ONS spreadsheet data that could explain what is going wrong....

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

Sunning this thread up:

 

There are some people who think that regardless of the numbers, the virus is not a threat to the vast majority of the population and in any case those numbers do not justify a lockdown/slowdown of the economy.

 

There are some people who think the gubmint is getting funny with the numbers for their own political gain.

 

Folks are uncomfortable in their masks.

[cochyn]

On 01/08/2020 at 09:28, Section_31 said:

Some interesting stuff on it here.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/30/a-huge-experiment-how-the-world-made-so-much-progress-on-a-covid-19-vaccine-so-fast/

 

I suppose it's a case of needs must isn't it? Like the Second World War, we went from horse drawn guns to atomic weapons and jet engines in six years. 

 

Money and motivation.

I really hope so mate. And not to be pendantic:,But we had the recipes for h bombs and jets in the 1920’s. We know sweet Fanny Craddock about how to vaccinate against CV. A workable vaccine using genome manipulation will be genuinely next level science. 

 

 

[Spy Bee]

I'm not trying to suggest that nobody has died, and numbers of Covid deaths in the early days could possibly have been understated. What I am saying, is that now the currently daily deaths reported by PHE are overstated. If only 10 people are dying in hospital, there's no way a further 100 are dying in the community. 

 

Let's wait and see what info comes out from this inquiry, but I think everything points to the current number of people dying being less than 1% of total UK deaths. Surely we should all hope that's what it it, as that would indicate that this thing has to a large extent killed the vast majority of the people it is going to kill.

[Section_31]

WHO putting the mortality rate at 0.6%.

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-08-03/who-says-studies-put-coronavirus-mortality-rate-at-0-6-video

[Bjornebye]

Cant wait to see what lies get posted on here today. 

[Bjornebye]

16 hours ago, Stront19m Dog™ said:

I don't know what more I can offer than the official NHS coronavirus death stats page, which includes their criteria for how they record deaths.

 

15 hours ago, Bjornebye said:

Show me the part where they explicitly say that any cause of death is dismissed and recorded as covid if the deceased has tested positive for covid. 

Nope nothing. Zero. None. No evidence.

 

More lies. 

[Section_31]

[Bjornebye]

Personally I pray for the death rate to come down because I care about humanity. Others pray for it to come down just to prove a point. 

 

Of course though and fall in the numbers over the coming weeks is down to the mask enforcement. 

[Guest]

15 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

Sunning this thread up:

 

There are some people who think that regardless of the numbers, the virus is not a threat to the vast majority of the population and in any case those numbers do not justify a lockdown/slowdown of the economy.

 

There are some people who think the gubmint is getting funny with the numbers for their own political gain.

 

Folks are uncomfortable in their masks.

Threads like this always benefit from a good dose of sunning up.

[Mudface]

28 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

I'm not trying to suggest that nobody has died, and numbers of Covid deaths in the early days could possibly have been understated. What I am saying, is that now the currently daily deaths reported by PHE are overstated. If only 10 people are dying in hospital, there's no way a further 100 are dying in the community. 

 

Let's wait and see what info comes out from this inquiry, but I think everything points to the current number of people dying being less than 1% of total UK deaths. Surely we should all hope that's what it it, as that would indicate that this thing has to a large extent killed the vast majority of the people it is going to kill.

But daily hospital deaths are subject to revision- https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

Quote

Interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death are likely to be updated in future releases for more recent dates. For example, a positive result for COVID-19 may occur days after confirmation of death. Cases are only included in the data when the positive COVID-19 test result is received, or death certificate confirmed with COVID-19 mentioned. This results in a lag between a given date of death and exhaustive daily death figures for that day.

 

These figures will be updated at 2pm each day and include confirmed death cases reported at 4pm the previous day. Confirmation of COVID-19 diagnosis, death notification, death certificates and reporting in central figures can take up to several days and the hospitals providing the data are under significant operational pressure. This means that the totals reported at 4pm on each day may not include all deaths that occurred on that day or on recent prior days.

 

These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes. This approach makes it possible to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up to date figures.

 

NOTE: As part of a continual process to improve the quality and accuracy of the dataset recording COVID-19 -related deaths in English hospitals, revisions may be made to historic data included in each day’s publication.  As a result, the data available is improved. An example of a revision may be where a death is reported to NHS England where no positive COVID-19 test result is recorded by the hospital trust, but where COVID-19 is later recorded on the death certificate.  In this type of circumstance, a positive COVID-19 test result may be received subsequently, and the record would therefore be revised.

 

i.e. the latest figure will go up over the next week or two as more deaths are confirmed. That's always been the case.

 

For the second paragraph- yes, I'm pretty sure everyone would hope that's the case, just as I'm sure they previously hoped that we'd all already had it or hoped that it was just going to be mild. 'Hope' isn't good enough though. Unless there's strong scientific evidence for a particular assertion and not just wishful thinking, it's best to err on the side of caution.

[Spy Bee]

7 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Personally I pray for the death rate to come down because I care about humanity. Others pray for it to come down just to prove a point. 

If that is aimed at me, I couldn't give a shit about being proved right to be honest. 

 

4 minutes ago, Mudface said:

But daily hospital deaths are subject to revision- https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Yep, orange part is subject to revision

 

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

If that is aimed at me, I couldn't give a shit about being proved right to be honest. 

 

It wasn't actually but you have been a massive colander head lately. 

[Spy Bee]

5 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Unless there's strong scientific evidence for a particular assertion and not just wishful thinking, it's best to err on the side of caution.

But there needs to be balance between Covid and everything else. Erring on the side of caution for Covid is having knock on effects to mental health, to cancer referrals/treatments, to people not attending the doctors and getting a diagnosis.

 

I would suggest that similar patterns in many countries/regions, strongly suggest that there is a saturation oint which can be reached and then the virus struggles to continue to spread. London, New York, Balermo, Sweden etc.

[Spy Bee]

2 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

It wasn't actually but you have been a massive colander head lately. 

Because I don't agree with you?

 

You can't even put together a decent fucking sentence on the subject; you're just a heckler.

[Spy Bee]

Masks are not working to well in JApan at the moment