Coronavirus

[Numero Veinticinco]

14 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

It never has spread exponentially. 

Wait, what? 

[TheHowieLama]

I just mentioned it to give him grief

 

TBF I think he meant as countries have re-opened there has been no exponential growth.

[Dougie Do'ins]

3 hours ago, Mudface said:

If anyone has relatives in Sarah's care home, I'd suggest you move them out quickly.

The damage was done to care homes long before Sarah's meltdown.

 

 

[SasaS]

8 minutes ago, TK421 said:

No exponential growth but it went from 1 case to 7 million in five months.  Just batshit honey nut loopy.  Even Chris Whitty admitted there had been exponential growth, and he's a Tory arselicker.  

Exponential growth would take you from 1 to 537 million in one month.

[Pureblood]

3 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Exponential growth would take you from 1 to 537 million in one month.

Oh Christ, here's another flat Earther.

[Spy Bee]

9 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Wait, what? 

Mathematically speaking.

[Barrington Womble]

2 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

But these kind of events should have a direct impact on the R Rate, taking it over 1.

No they shouldn't. In normal life before lockdown (when we had exponential growth of the virus), we had an R rate of 3, but we were crammed into tubes, all flying and having lots of contacts per day at work and socially. Then we went into proper lockdown and quickly the numbers drop, including the Rate as nobody is passing the virus around. Then ve day as an example come along. But those celebrations were mostly out doors. It was 1 day. It was probably still less contacts than a normal day. We're still washing our hands more. We know outdoor settings are safer and less likely to pass the infections on. But through ve day  or other shops opening, people with symptoms would still be locked down. People living with symptomatic people would remain lockdown. So the infection risk is from asymptomatic people in those new environments and us being generally more cautious than before. So perhaps infection rates were higher than without relaxing measures, but if most people with the virus and those living with them are still locked down, it's not causing R to go above 1 across all cases. 

 

I don't know how many new cases there's been the last few weeks, but let's say it's 8k, 7k and 6k. If we'd have remained completely locked up as before, that may have been 8k, 6k, 3k. Had there been no lockdown at all, it might have meant 8k, 7k, 10k. Relaxing in small ways doesn't mean we should see a spike in infections, it just means we should see a more gradual decrease in infections. It should show a spike in the R rate (as we are seeing in the north west right now) but it won't always spike above 1. If it stays above 1, we're in trouble. This is why track and trace is so crucial and needed to be world class before relaxing of lockdown. It's a shame and a massive risk it isn't. 

 

[TheHowieLama]

9 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Exponential growth would take you from 1 to 537 million in one month.

Did you do that in your head?

[SasaS]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

Did you do that in your head?

Yep. Didn't even have to stop counting cards at the blackjack table.

[aRdja]

With all due respect, I had to step in and explain how to read a bog standard time series graph the other day.

[Leyton388]

The infection tion rate is going to explode with these protests in london. 

[Dougie Do'ins]

9 minutes ago, Leyton388 said:

The infection tion rate is going to explode with these protests in london. 

I bet the Tories are secretly welcoming the chance to see if there's any knock on effect. Not to mention the extra herd immunity.

[Leyton388]

Just now, Dougie Do'ins said:

I bet the Tories are secretly welcoming the chance to see if there's any knock on effect. Not to mention more herd immunity.

But remember the biggest worry is still some scousers gathering around an empty stadium. 

 

This must be stopped at all costs for the health of the public. 

[Bjornebye]

4 minutes ago, Dougie Do'ins said:

I bet the Tories are secretly welcoming the chance to see if there's any knock on effect. Not to mention the extra herd immunity.

Of course they are. This is golden for them. In 2/3 weeks time they will point straight at this and all their fuck ups won't even get mentioned. 

[Strontium]

26 minutes ago, Leyton388 said:

The infection rate is going to explode with these protests in london. 

 

The people in power will no doubt be hoping it does, because of the implications if it doesn't.

[Anubis]

My sister-in-law is a classroom assistant in Bolton. Her school reopened this week. Now they’re having a meeting on Monday as it looks like they’re shutting down again because of the increase in the R number in the NW.

[Rick Sanchez C-137]

Thankfully we're much smarter in Northern Ireland and chose to ignore the Tory advice of opening schools as it is obviously complete lunacy. Risking it all for a phased return to school for a couple of weeks. One of the most unbelievable parts of this whole surreal government 'response'.

[Rick Sanchez C-137]

1 hour ago, SasaS said:

Exponential growth would take you from 1 to 537 million in one month.

Quik mafs

[Captain Turdseye]

1 hour ago, SasaS said:

Exponential growth would take you from 1 to 537 million in one month.

Which month?

[Section_31]

10 minutes ago, Captain Turdseye said:

Which month?

Tuesday.

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

@TK421 will appreciate the mask data. 

[SasaS]

29 minutes ago, Captain Turdseye said:

Which month?

April, it was based on 30 days. Plus, it is the cruelest month.

[Rico1304]

Well, looks like the 2nd spike will be in two weeks.  I remember people taking the piss after the VE celebrations calling people idiots for street parties. This is going to knock it out of the fucking park. 

[Pureblood]

14 minutes ago, Nelly-Torres said:

@TK421 will appreciate the mask data. 

Nailed it. 

[Leyton388]

I wouldnt trust this blurt to tell me the right time, let alone if it's safe to mingle in crowds or not. 

 

This guy definitely picks his nose and eats it.