Coronavirus

[Section_31]

7 hours ago, A Red said:

Disdain is one thing, I hate that newspaper. I dont want people to loser their jobs because they read it. Do you?

Unless you're really simple I'm sure you appreciate there's a large degree of venting and creative license that goes on on what is in fact, a football forum and not a think tank that formulates policy or indeed, a government department. The fact you've actually gone back on to another thread from weeks ago, even though you already know all this, and called me a cunt, suggests you've got an agenda. I'm not interested anyway, surely all this has proven life is too short, put me on ignore, it's really easy, put me on ignore and watch some telly.

[Rick Sanchez C-137]

I, for one, don't think Section went far enough, and i think he needs to get off the fence and say what we all really feel.

 

The S*n newspapers should be sprinkled with anthrax.

[Numero Veinticinco]

14 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Unless you're really simple I'm sure you appreciate there's a large degree of venting and creative license that goes on on what is in fact, a football forum and not a think tank that formulates policy or indeed, a government department. The fact you've actually gone back on to another thread from weeks ago, even though you already know all this, and called me a cunt, suggests you've got an agenda. I'm not interested anyway, surely all this has proven life is too short, put me on ignore, it's really easy, put me on ignore and watch some telly.

I’ve put you in ignore. Can’t deal with any more hatred towards Star Trek Picard. 

[Anubis]

After the debacle of the recall of Parliament and Alok Sharma yesterday, news that another country has had to close schools they’d reopened. Still, full steam ahead in the UK.

 

11m ago 07:27

Israel’s parliament suspended sessions scheduled for Thursday after a lawmaker tested positive for the coronavirus, while some schools shut down anew amid worries about fresh outbreaks.

 

Having moved aggressively against the global pandemic in March and seen a tailing-off of new cases, Israel has eased curbs in recent weeks. But officials warn that public complacency could lead to a resurgence in cases.

 

The 120-seat Knesset said non-essential staff have been asked to stay home and all of Thursday’s committee meetings were postponed “pending an investigation of the ramifications” of lawmaker Sami Abou Shahadeh having contracted the coronavirus.

“I appeal to all of those who have been in my immediate vicinity to self-isolate and get tested,” Abou Shahadeh said on Twitter. “The virus is still among us and a return to so-called routine helps the virus spread with greater magnitude and speed.”

 

 Israeli schools, such as this one in Modiin, reopened last month but it has been reported that as many as 42 have been forced to close over fresh coronavirus outbreaks. Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

Israeli schools reopened last month but worries have grown that some children are infecting others despite a slew of precautionary measures. Israeli media reported on Thursday that as many as 42 schools had closed over fresh outbreaks. The Education Ministry did not immediately confirm the figure.

 

“Any educational institution in which there is morbidity will be shut,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that school staff would continue seeking ways to protect and distance students from one another.

 

Israel, which has a population of 9 million, has reported 17,343 coronavirus cases and 290 deaths. More than 593,000 people in the country have been tested for the virus, the Health Ministry said.

[A Red]

1 hour ago, Section_31 said:

Unless you're really simple I'm sure you appreciate there's a large degree of venting and creative license that goes on on what is in fact, a football forum and not a think tank that formulates policy or indeed, a government department. The fact you've actually gone back on to another thread from weeks ago, even though you already know all this, and called me a cunt, suggests you've got an agenda. I'm not interested anyway, surely all this has proven life is too short, put me on ignore, it's really easy, put me on ignore and watch some telly.

I have no agenda with you at all, as i said I think you are a really good poster, I was pleased you returned. As NV said they were just 2 posts in with the other 50,000 or so. No need to put you on ignore, I'd miss out on lots of good stuff.

 

I just picked you up on those 2 and called you a cunt for them. Like you say, its a football forum, I thought what you said was nasty, still do, and told you, if you post shit like that, i'll tell you again. Just as others would with me.

 

You say it was venting and creative license, in other words , you didnt mean it. Fair enough, I understand there is a bit of a pack mentality and sometimes ones need to fit in and be noticed gives that creative license. 

[Guest Pistonbroke]

[A Red]

8 hours ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

So you’re debating that he said it? Oh, okay. Considering that he doesn’t deny it and actually reaffirmed those things in that very thread, I thought it was pretty evident that he actually said them. Seems weird to ask me to link you things he doesn’t debate saying. 
 

I’ll boil it down to the basics for you. Here’s my basis for saying what I said. If you answer specifically what you want then I’ll either link you to where he said it, or I’ll show you the Technical definition of what a ‘race’ is and what ‘racism’ is, in case you think Muslims aren’t a race or that you have to display Adolf Hitler levels of hatred to be a racist. 
 

1) I think it’s racist to say that Muslims are good at violence. Do you debate that he said this or do you debate that it is racist, or both? 

 

2) I think it’s racist to PREJUDGE all Muslims as being inferior (insofar as they’re savages). Do you debate he said this? He doesn’t, so why would I need to link this? 
 

3) I think racist apologists, be it for Carl ‘I like racist jokes’ Benjamin or be it for  police brutality against black people, is akin to racism. Do you debate that he - as he clarified again in the very post we clashed in - that he did this? 
 

On to section... 

 

You keep on banging on about defending what section said, but I’ve answered that point several times now. I said that, like him, I also have a lack of sympathy with Sun readers and with Tory voters when they get fucked over by the institutions that  they prop up. Now, what you said - not him - isn’t something I’d agree with or defend, so I said, if he confirms that’s what he meant, then of course I will disagree with him. But he didn’t say it. You did, He, flippantly, said ‘fuck ‘em’ and ‘silver linings’ not ‘the poor don’t deserve help’ bullshit that you’re asking me to defend. So the answer is no, I’m not going to defend the thing you said. Am I going to defend what HE said, well, if he meant what I think he meant, then yes I’ve defended it twice already. 

 

 

The rico bit - You were going to dig out proof i.e quotes to show he is a racist. You still havent, until you do, you just have an opinion. My whole point is that if you call someone something serious like a racist, you should provide proof not just an opinion. Its a bit different to calling someone a cunt. Quite why you dug all this up in this discussion I have no idea.

 

The section bit - He didnt mean it, it was creative license

[Redder Lurtz]

*Checks thread for any useful covid-19 info or updates.

 

*Reads last 2 pages

 

*Fucks off to read something else 

[Pureblood]

7 hours ago, TheBitch said:

I am very much not sober right now, so I repped your mask comment. 

 

Now I’ve just gone back over it and seen that hateful other comment, so I will gladly neg another post of yours. You cunt. 

Haha, rep RiS-up.

[Pureblood]

Daily Mail also reporting the man-made hypothesis.  This is slowly gaining traction.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8386235/Coronavirus-man-says-ex-head-MI6-Sir-Richard-Dearlove.html

[Numero Veinticinco]

1 hour ago, A Red said:

The rico bit - You were going to dig out proof i.e quotes to show he is a racist. You still havent, until you do, you just have an opinion. My whole point is that if you call someone something serious like a racist, you should provide proof not just an opinion. Its a bit different to calling someone a cunt. Quite why you dug all this up in this discussion I have no idea.

 

The section bit - He didnt mean it, it was creative license

So even though he repeated them, and admits to saying those things, you still want me to get links for you to dismiss? He doesn’t debate that he says them, he debates that it’s racist. So, with that in mind, why bother? Seems like you’re trying to defend him by asking for links so that it makes it look like he didn’t say it. That’d work if people here hadn’t 1) read it for themselves or seen me link to it lots of times, and 2) hadn’t just said that he still thinks those things. You can debate whether they’re racist but debating whether he said/believe those things is ridiculous. 

[1892-LFCWasBorn]

For anyone who hasn't watched yet, I urge you to watch both Newsnight (yesterday) on iPlayer and Dispatches on All 4.

 

Truly shocking.

[YorkshireRed]

Potentially another fourteen days off for our esteemed leader/lazy cunt of a bollock (delete as appropriate).

[Elite]

1 minute ago, YorkshireRed said:

Potentially another fourteen days off for our esteemed leader/lazy cunt of a bollock (delete as appropriate).

He may as well have furloughed himself.

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, YorkshireRed said:

Potentially another fourteen days off for our esteemed leader/lazy cunt of a bollock (delete as appropriate).

 

At least we might find out if immunity does last a fair while.

[YorkshireRed]

9 minutes ago, Elite said:

He may as well have furloughed himself.

A suspicious type may suggest that every few weeks he’s going to arrange a meeting with one of his clowns, then get them to pretend to have Covid. He then fucks off for fourteen days to get pissed in the garden at Chequers before returning to announce to his adoring public that he’s going to allow them to do something most are doing anyway due to the Cummings debacle. 

[johnsusername]

2 hours ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

For anyone who hasn't watched yet, I urge you to watch both Newsnight (yesterday) on iPlayer and Dispatches on All 4.

 

Truly shocking.

What are they saying? 

[johnsusername]

3 hours ago, TK421 said:

Daily Mail also reporting the man-made hypothesis.  This is slowly gaining traction.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8386235/Coronavirus-man-says-ex-head-MI6-Sir-Richard-Dearlove.html

Did you ever think otherwise? A virus which supposedly came from a market in China spreads round the world in weeks, infects over 6 million people in six months and kills almost half a million. Someone somewhere in a lab has dropped a bollock. China will owe the world £billions possibly £trillions - no wonder they've been covering it up from the start. 

[Spy Bee]

16 minutes ago, Mudface said:

 

At least we might find out if immunity does last a fair while.

You're presuming he actually had it the first time.

[Pureblood]

5 minutes ago, johnsusername said:

Did you ever think otherwise? A virus which supposedly came from a market in China spreads round the world in weeks, infects over 6 million people in six months and kills almost half a million. Someone somewhere in a lab has dropped a bollock. China will owe the world £billions possibly £trillions - no wonder they've been covering it up from the start. 

I was open minded at the start, but now I think the evidence points firmly towards it being created in a lab. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

7 minutes ago, johnsusername said:

Did you ever think otherwise? A virus which supposedly came from a market in China spreads round the world in weeks, infects over 6 million people in six months and kills almost half a million. Someone somewhere in a lab has dropped a bollock. China will owe the world £billions possibly £trillions - no wonder they've been covering it up from the start. 

I’m not one for these type of conspiracy theories, but this does feel quite fucked. Thing is, if there’s evidence there for it being man made, surely the US, UK, Japanese, Korean scientists would have known pretty quickly? 
 

As with everything like this, evidence needs to be presented. 

[Spy Bee]

This is bats!

[Spy Bee]

https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/

 

Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19

The influential professor's statistical observations could radically change how we lift lockdown

BY FREDDIE SAYERS

 

Just one month ago, the idea that most people aren’t susceptible to Covid-19 — perhaps the overwhelming majority — was considered dangerous denialism. It was startling when Nobel-prize-winning scientist Michael Levitt argued in UnHerd at the start of May that the growth curves of the disease were never truly exponential, suggesting that some sort of “prior immunity” must be kicking in very early.

Today, though, the presence of some level of prior resistance and immunity to Covid-19 is fast becoming accepted scientific fact. Results have just been published of a study suggesting that 40%-60% of people who have not been exposed to coronavirus have resistance at the T-cell level from other similar coronaviruses like the common cold.

Now, from the unlikely source of a prominent member of the “Independent SAGE committee”, the group set up by Sir David King to challenge government scientific advice and accused by some of being populated with Left-wing activists, comes a claim that the true portion of people who are not even susceptible to Covid-19 may be as high as 80%.

 

Professor Karl Friston, like Michael Levitt, is a statistician not a virologist; his expertise is in understanding complex and dynamic biological processes by representing them in mathematical models. Within the neuroscience field he was ranked by Science magazine as the most influential in the world, having invented the now standard “statistical parametric mapping” technique for understanding brain imaging — and for the past months he has been applying his particular method of Bayesian analysis, which he calls “dynamic causal modelling”, to the available Covid-19 data.

Friston referred to some kind of “immunological dark matter” as the only plausible explanation for the huge disparity in results between countries in an interview with the Guardian last weekend. The eye-catching phrase attracted a lot of attention on social media, with some commentators keen to dismiss it as rubbish, but he meant it in a quite precise way: like dark matter, the undetectable substance that makes up approximately 85% of the universe, it is provably there by its effects. We just don’t know anything about it.

His models suggest that the stark difference between outcomes in the UK and Germany, for example, is not primarily an effect of different government actions (such as better testing and earlier lockdowns) but is better explained by intrinsic differences between the populations that make the “susceptible population” in Germany — the group that is vulnerable to Covid-19 — much smaller than in the UK.

As he told me in our interview, even within the UK, the numbers point to the same thing: that the “effective susceptible population” was never 100%, and was at most 50% and probably more like only 20% of the population. He emphasises that the analysis is not yet complete, but “I suspect, once this has been done, it will look like the effective non-susceptible portion of the population will be about 80%. I think that’s what’s going to happen.”

Theories abound as to which factors best explain the huge disparities between countries in the portion of the population that seems resistant or immune — everything from levels of vitamin D to ethnic-genetic and social and geographical differences may come into play — but Professor Friston makes clear that it does not primarily seem to be a function of government coronavirus policy. “Solving that — understanding that source of variation in terms of this non-susceptibility — is going to be the key to understanding the enormous variation between countries,” he said.

 

Professor Friston is ultra-cautious in his choice of words, and understandably so: the impact of this realisation, if proven correct, is hard to overstate.

Immediately it would change how we should think about lifting lockdown: a tube carriage in London might in theory have to be restricted to 15% capacity to maintain social distancing of 2 metres, but if, as Professor Friston believes, the susceptible population in London was only ever 26% and 80% or more of that group is now provably immune via antibody testing, you can put a lot more people in a tube carriage without increasing the level of risk. Ditto restaurants, pubs, theatres and most recently, MPs in parliament. It would question the whole idea of social distancing being a feature of any “new normal”.

It would take the heat out of the political argument around the pandemic, and give the lie to the idea that it was ever primarily government actions (however incompetent or incompetently executed) that explain differing death rates. As Professor Friston puts it, once you put into the model sensible behaviours that people do anyway such as staying in bed when they are sick, the effect of legal lockdown “literally goes away”.

His explanation for the remarkably similar mortality outcomes in Sweden (no lockdown) and the UK (lockdown) is that “they weren’t actually any different. Because at the end of the day the actual processes that get into the epidemiological dynamics — the actual behaviours, the distancing, was evolutionarily specified by the way we behave when we have an infection.”

Most significantly, it would mean that the principal underlying assumption behind the global shutdowns, typified by the famous Imperial College forecasts — namely, that left unchecked this disease would rapidly pass through the entire population of every country and kill around 1% of those infected, leading to untold millions of deaths worldwide without draconian action — was wrong, out by a large factor. The largest co-ordinated government action in history, forcibly closing down most of the world’s societies with consequences that may last for generations, would have been based on faulty science.

 

When I put this to Professor Friston, he was the model of collegiate discretion. He said that the presumptions of Neil Ferguson’s models were all correct, “under the qualification that the population they were talking about is much smaller than you might imagine”. In other words, Ferguson was right that around 80% of susceptible people would rapidly become infected, and was right that of those between 0.5% and 1% would die — he just missed the fact that the relevant “susceptible population” was only ever a small portion of people in the UK, and an even smaller portion in countries like Germany and elsewhere. Which rather changes everything.

With such elegant formulations are scientific reputations saved. Practically, it makes not much difference whether, as per Sunetra Gupta, the 40,000 officially-counted coronavirus deaths in the UK are 0.1% of 40 million people infected, or, as per Karl Friston’s theory implies, they are more like 0.5% of 8 million people infected with the remaining 32 million shielded from infection by mysterious “immunological dark material”. If you are exposed to the virus and it is destroyed in your body by mucosal antibodies or T-cells or clever genes so that you never become fully infected and don’t even notice it, should that count as an infection? The effect is the same: 40,000 deaths, not 400,000.

This wouldn’t mean that most of the population is technically immune to Covid-19 — scenarios with a very high viral load, such as doctors treating Covid-19 patients in hospitals may still overpower these defences — but it would mean under normal circumstances, most people would never have contracted the disease.

The atmosphere in the UK continues to change irrespective of Government policy, and if people ever were afraid they are becoming less so, having intuited that, for now at least, the coronavirus threat seems to be in retreat. Gradually, the scientists are providing explanations for why that might be.

Join the discussion

[Spy Bee]

Only 35 cases in Wales today. The lowest since they started testing, apart from a weird day in April, when I presume no tests were done. 

[Mudface]

“I suspect, once this has been done, it will look like the effective non-susceptible portion of the population will be about 80%. I think that’s what’s going to happen.”

 

So the Chinese couldn't even create a proper virus, the useless cunts.