Coronavirus

[johnsusername]

Be interesting to see what happens to the next lot of guinea pigs of the Tory experiment (school kids and teachers) when the schools reopen in a couple of weeks. Because you can count on kids to adhere to social distancing rules.  

 

Kids will be back in school but gyms and barbers will still be closed and footy will still be two weeks off. This all seems very well planned I must say. 

[SasaS]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

Looks like the lows were in the 3,800 - 4,200 range and the spikes were the 5k and 6k numbers.

 

While that is good news in a way I think I have to disagree with that analysis. In the US our numbers look very similar in "decline", probably steadier than the UK proportionately. Read today was our lowest day since March 25th. 

However I know that is greatly affected by New York City (in much the same way as the UK's numbers are with London).

Cases are rising through the rest of the country. I think the overall testing thing is a bit of a red herring as well. Many of those numbers come from people who are being tested daily.

 

Is the overall test number higher than it was? Yes.

 

Are the tests accurate enough and dispersed throughout society widely enough to suggest there is enough data? Not sure tbh. 

That may be, but the UK is one country and I think London is no longer the main hotspot. This is now 4 consecutive days under 4,000 cases and it is safe to assume that if they tested the same as they did when on 20k tests a day, the confirmed cases number would be at least half the current figure, therefore much lower than 4K to 5K in previous weeks. Which is also consistent with other trends (deaths, hospital admissions) and to be expected at this stage of the epidemic, as compared to other countries.

[TheHowieLama]

13 minutes ago, SasaS said:

That may be, but the UK is one country and I think London is no longer the main hotspot. This is now 4 consecutive days under 4,000 cases and it is safe to assume that if they tested the same as they did when on 20k tests a day, the confirmed cases number would be at least half the current figure, therefore much lower than 4K to 5K in previous weeks. Which is also consistent with other trends (deaths, hospital admissions) and to be expected at this stage of the epidemic, as compared to other countries.

The US is one country as well - and NYC is no longer the hotspot - that is the point. The virus is growing in other parts of the country to keep the number that high. The fluctuations in new cases have always had periods of a lull for a number of days. 5 days ago the UK had its highest number since April 10. Unless 6 days ago there was a massive difference in the amount of tests given to random folks not sure we can read much into that.

I do believe that at this point, at least in the US and the UK, there will not be any massive breakouts at the level NYC was for instance.

 

Instead it will be a slow burn of numbers not unlike what we are seeing now for the quite some time.

[Scott_M]

As I’ve mentioned before, I think hospitals and care homes should be treated as separate metrics.

 

Hospitals stats are here. They are quite clearly reducing at a reasonable rate. 
 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-12-May-2020.xlsx

[TheHowieLama]

14 minutes ago, Scott_M said:

As I’ve mentioned before, I think hospitals and care homes should be treated as separate metrics.

 

Hospitals stats are here. They are quite clearly reducing at a reasonable rate. 
 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-12-May-2020.xlsx

I'm pretty sure they were not counting care home deaths in the UK totals until the last few weeks - didn't they lump on like 12k overall deaths at one point?

@SasaS

would probably know.

 

There are some strange discrepancies between those numbers, the numbers posted by Worldometer and the excess deaths for the time period.

Not saying one is wrong, but they cannot all be right.

[Colonel Bumcunt]

24 minutes ago, Scott_M said:

As I’ve mentioned before, I think hospitals and care homes should be treated as separate metrics.

 

Hospitals stats are here. They are quite clearly reducing at a reasonable rate. 
 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-12-May-2020.xlsx

Breakdown by pre existing condition
		Pre existing condition
Age group		Yes	No	Unkown presence of pre-existing condition	Total
Total		20924	1125	0	22049
0 - 19 yrs		8	3	0	11
20 - 39		127	28	0	155
40 - 59		1554	207	0	1761
60 - 79		8066	481	0	8547
80+		11169	406	0	11575
Unknown age		0	0	0	0

[SasaS]

6 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

I'm pretty sure they were not counting care home deaths in the UK totals until the last few weeks - didn't they lump on like 12k overall deaths at one point?

@SasaS

would probably know.

 

There are some strange discrepancies between those numbers, the numbers posted by Worldometer and the excess deaths for the time period.

Not saying one is wrong, but they cannot all be right.

This is England only, hospital deaths only, they are apparently doing hospitals plus care homes all UK now daily.

 

Excess deaths will probably come later, everywhere. Italy is also somewhere close to 50K I think.

Breakdown provided by Scott's chart is interesting, there have been 30 registered hospital deaths in England so far of people under 40 with no preexisting conditions. If you allow that the actual number of all cases in England in that age group was around 3 million people, it would give you a 1:100,000 chance of dying if you are under 40 and have none of the listed conditions.

[Colonel Bumcunt]

Any similar data around case numbers?

Be interesting to see the number of deaths vs cases in each age and pre-existing condition category.

[Colonel Bumcunt]

1 minute ago, SasaS said:

This is England only, hospital deaths only, they are apparently doing hospitals plus care homes all UK now daily.

 

Excess deaths will probably come later, everywhere. Italy is also somewhere close to 50K I think.

Breakdown provided by Scott's chart is interesting, there have been 30 registered hospital deaths in England so far of people under 40 with no preexisting conditions. If you allow that the actual number of all cases in England in that age group was around 3 million people, it would give you a 1:100,000 chance of dying if you are under 40 and have none of the listed conditions.

Death, yeah, but how many under 40 ended up in hospital for treatment?

 

 

[SasaS]

6 minutes ago, Colonel Bumcunt said:

Death, yeah, but how many under 40 ended up in hospital for treatment?

 

 

That I don't know, but could be proportional to deaths. anecdotal evidence would so far suggest under 40s without preexisting conditions do not make up a significant percentage of hospitalized.

Would definitely be interesting to see that breakdown.

[Strontium]

31 minutes ago, SasaS said:

If you allow that the actual number of all cases in England in that age group was around 3 million people, it would give you a 1:100,000 chance of dying if you are under 40 and have none of the listed conditions.

 

You are sailing pretty close to the wind here. Just wait until the forum police see that.

[johnsusername]

1 hour ago, SasaS said:

This is England only, hospital deaths only, they are apparently doing hospitals plus care homes all UK now daily.

 

Excess deaths will probably come later, everywhere. Italy is also somewhere close to 50K I think.

Breakdown provided by Scott's chart is interesting, there have been 30 registered hospital deaths in England so far of people under 40 with no preexisting conditions. If you allow that the actual number of all cases in England in that age group was around 3 million people, it would give you a 1:100,000 chance of dying if you are under 40 and have none of the listed conditions.

I'm over 40. Fuck them youngsters! 

[Pureblood]

44 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

You are sailing pretty close to the wind here. Just wait until the forum police see that.

*Woo-woo siren*

 

I'm just glad there aren't any wild assumptions in the calculations like, I dunno, saying that 3 million people in that age group have the disease because... fuck it, why not? It is just like the flu, after all. 

[Barrington Womble]

1 hour ago, SasaS said:

This is England only, hospital deaths only, they are apparently doing hospitals plus care homes all UK now daily.

 

Excess deaths will probably come later, everywhere. Italy is also somewhere close to 50K I think.

Breakdown provided by Scott's chart is interesting, there have been 30 registered hospital deaths in England so far of people under 40 with no preexisting conditions. If you allow that the actual number of all cases in England in that age group was around 3 million people, it would give you a 1:100,000 chance of dying if you are under 40 and have none of the listed conditions.

The ONS has said today excess deaths are  50k+ from mid march (and maybe just for the following 6 weeks, but I might be wrong about that as I was a little distracted when it came on). That's what they said on the 6pm news. I would have expected that to be headline news, but they slid it in very quietly about 15 mins in when you're ready for the latest capt Tom story. 

[SasaS]

7 minutes ago, TK421 said:

*Woo-woo siren*

 

I'm just glad there aren't any wild assumptions in the calculations like, I dunno, saying that 3 million people in that age group have the disease because... fuck it, why not? It is just like the flu, after all. 

You  don't think it's possible? Even now, with a lot more testing, the estimate according to BBC is there are five times more daily cases than the official number. Swedes estimate the actual number of cases there is about 75 times the official confirmed figure, and they tested similarly to UK throughout much of the epidemic. If you cut it down to half or 30x or 35x for UK, that is about 10 percent of people, if under 40s in England are roughly half of the population, 3 million would be a conservative estimate.

[Pureblood]

6 minutes ago, SasaS said:

You  don't think it's possible? Even now, with a lot more testing, the estimate according to BBC is there are five times more daily cases than the official number. Swedes estimate the actual number of cases there is about 75 times the official confirmed figure, and they tested similarly to UK throughout much of the epidemic. If you cut it down to half or 30x or 35x for UK, that is about 10 percent of people, if under 40s in England are roughly half of the population, 3 million would be a conservative estimate.

Sure, 3 million is a conservative estimate.  Why not, eh?  It's not as if you're just plucking numbers out of thin air and making it up as you go along.  Why stop at 3 million?

 

You said New York was close to herd immunity the other week, so the rest of us should have caught up by now.  A couple more months and we should have global herd immunity, then we'll be out of the woods and life will return to normal for everyone. 

 

Am I doing it right?

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Twitter CEO Jack what's-his

-name has apparently announced that all Twitter employees are free to work from home on a permanent basis, if they so desire. 

 

 

[SasaS]

4 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Sure, 3 million is a conservative estimate.  Why not, eh?  It's not as if you're just plucking numbers out of thin air and making it up as you go along.  Why stop at 3 million?

 

You said New York was close to herd immunity the other week, so the rest of us should have caught up by now.  A couple more months and we should have global herd immunity, then we'll be out of the woods and life will return to normal for everyone. 

 

Am I doing it right?

Well, New York state was at 14 percent a couple of weeks ago, according to their own study, so not plucked out of thin air, it is not that unreasonable to guess UK may be at 10 percent, if you compare the numbers and population.

It is pretty widely accepted that registered cases are just a tip of the iceberg.

 

[Bjornebye]

42 minutes ago, TK421 said:

*Woo-woo siren*

 

I'm just glad there aren't any wild assumptions in the calculations like, I dunno, saying that 3 million people in that age group have the disease because... fuck it, why not? It is just like the flu, after all. 

 

 

[Colonel Bumcunt]

The latest regs are now out, and you can relax, it's fine to go out of the house to look at buying a property, or collecting rent.

 

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/500/pdfs/uksi_20200500_en.pdf

[Section_31]

Let's hope so.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-testimony-senate-hearing-covid-19-congress-a9510671.html

 

Coronavirus: Eight Covid-19 vaccinesbeing worked on and could be available by 'late fall', Fauci says during

 

At least eight candidates for a coronavirus vaccine are in the clinical development stage, and some could be ready as early as the “late fall”, Anthony Fauci, the US’ top infectious disease expert, has told senators.

“The [National Institutes of Health] has been collaborating with a number of pharmaceutical companies at various stages of development,” Mr Fauci said, in testimony on Tuesday.

 

The White House infectious disease guru also suggested that his previous projection that it would take at least a year to 18 months before a vaccine was ready does not appear to be accurate.

[Colonel Bumcunt]

As of tomorrow, 13 May, this is fine:

 

(ba) to visit a public open space for the purposes of open-air recreation to promote their physical or mental health or emotional wellbeing—

(i) alone,

(ii) with one or more members of their household, or

(iii) with one member of another household;”;

 

Ace.  Eight Ace.  Parks.  Mate.  

[SasaS]

19 minutes ago, Section_31 said:

Let's hope so.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-testimony-senate-hearing-covid-19-congress-a9510671.html

 

Coronavirus: Eight Covid-19 vaccinesbeing worked on and could be available by 'late fall', Fauci says during

 

At least eight candidates for a coronavirus vaccine are in the clinical development stage, and some could be ready as early as the “late fall”, Anthony Fauci, the US’ top infectious disease expert, has told senators.

“The [National Institutes of Health] has been collaborating with a number of pharmaceutical companies at various stages of development,” Mr Fauci said, in testimony on Tuesday.

 

The White House infectious disease guru also suggested that his previous projection that it would take at least a year to 18 months before a vaccine was ready does not appear to be accurate.

But will Gates be ready with the chips by late autumn?

[Vincent Vega]

 

[Pureblood]

1 hour ago, SasaS said:

It is pretty widely accepted that registered cases are just a tip of the iceberg.

The same applies to deaths.  You're quite happy to extrapolate the number of cases to cover the whole population, but disregard the same principle when it comes to deaths.  This gives you a false calculation from either an inflated denominator, an underestimated numerator or both.