Coronavirus

[Pureblood]

6 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

If we all have to wear masks how many do we need? 
 

Say 60m people, 4 masks a day (is that right, if not what is?) 240m a day for 6 months? That’s 4.32e10 masks.  If they are 1p each that’s £432,000,000. Who can produce that many of anything?  

Homemade cotton masks are reusable/washable.  We don't need four medical grade masks per day for everyone. 

 

It's possible for everyone to cover their face in public and still have enough PPE for healthcare workers.  Many countries are doing this. 

[Guest Pistonbroke]

Thing with masks is you'll have people wearing the same one loads of times just to get in the shops or to use public transport, impossible to police things to see who is wearing what. I personally think it is just a step so they can start the economic wheels of industry turning again. Of course, something is better than nothing, but it won't be an ideal solution, especially when you are relying on Joe Public to do the right thing. An ideal solution won't be possible anyway, not until a Vaccine is found. 

[3 Stacks]

2 hours ago, Spy Bee said:

Well, you are. At least for the short term. Also, all the coronavirus that currently infect humans do provide life time immunity, so I don't think I'm taking too much of a gamble. I'm not going to rush out and start kissing strangers with CV like, I just might sleep a bit easier at night & I will also be aware that I am not shedding.

Oh, so now you're immune for sure, but yesterday it was SARS spliced with HIV? That's odd. 

[Spy Bee]

2 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

Oh, so now you're immune for sure, but yesterday it was SARS spliced with HIV? That's odd. 

I didn't say it was did I?

 

And even if it was, it would still be a coronavirus.

 

Do keep up.

[Pureblood]

2 minutes ago, Pistonbroke said:

Thing with masks is you'll have people wearing the same one loads of times just to get in the shops or to use public transport, impossible to police things to see who is wearing what. I personally think it is just a step so they can start the economic wheels of industry turning again. Of course, something is better than nothing, but it won't be an ideal solution, especially when you are relying on Joe Public to do the right thing. An ideal solution won't be possible anyway, not until a Vaccine is found. 

The situation will evolve.   Intelligent people will take mask hygiene seriously and learn to treat their mask as an extension of their face.  Intelligent people will combine wearing a mask with social distancing.  We'll get there in the end. 

 

Great move by Germany, though.  We need to do the same urgently. 

[3 Stacks]

1 hour ago, TK421 said:

Good article on antibody tests/immunity here.  Conclusion is that further research is required and that many existing anti-body tests are unreliable for want of FDA approval.  The market for antibody tests is a bit wild west at the moment.  

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/

The thing is, almost every antibody study that's been conducted has shown a similar result (of a pretty large percentage of unfound cases). I've read the critiques against them, especially the Santa Clara one and its shoddy methodology, but It's hard to believe they're all wrong.

 

I guess we'll know more when the New York and Germany studies come out. 

[Spy Bee]

8 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Lockdowns clearly work at suppressing the spread of the virus.  It's not a question of "if".  

So then why is the peak for North Wales still predicted to be at the end of May?

[Pureblood]

4 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

So then why is the peak for North Wales still predicted to be at the end of May?

Because the virus moves at a slower pace through rural populations, it's not a one size fits all virus. Or maybe your high up in the NHS friend is wrong, have you considered that? There could be any number of reasons.

 

But if you're going to argue that lockdowns don't work full stop, you're in cloud cuckoo land I reckon. They clearly have at least some impact on suppression.  

[Spy Bee]

6 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Because the virus moves at a slower pace through rural populations, it's not a one size fits all virus. Or maybe your high up in the NHS friend is wrong, have you considered that? There could be any number of reasons.

 

But if you're going to argue that lockdowns don't work full stop, you're in cloud cuckoo land I reckon. They clearly have at least some impact on suppression.  

If it moves at a slower pace, it doesn't peak, you absolute emptyhead!! 

[Pureblood]

Just now, Spy Bee said:

If it moves at a slower pace, it doesn't peak, you absolute emptyhead!! 

Ah right, that makes perfect sense. No peak at all.  Is it just a flat line in North Wales, then?  Have you gone curveless?

[Spy Bee]

Just now, TK421 said:

Ah right, that makes perfect sense. No peak at all.  Is it just a flat line in North Wales, then?  Have you gone curveless?

Oh good God!

 

If it is spreading at 1, there is no peak, if it is spreading at below 1, the peak is behind us. 

[Pureblood]

Just now, Spy Bee said:

Oh good God!

 

If it is spreading at 1, there is no peak, if it is spreading at below 1, the peak is behind us. 

There has to be a peak unless it flatlines perfectly. 

[Guest Pistonbroke]

8 minutes ago, TK421 said:

The situation will evolve.   Intelligent people will take mask hygiene seriously and learn to treat their mask as an extension of their face.  Intelligent people will combine wearing a mask with social distancing.  We'll get there in the end. 

 

Great move by Germany, though.  We need to do the same urgently. 

 

I honestly don't have has much faith as you in my fellow mankind. Like everything it will come down to cost. At the moment the Chemists (can't speak for all but the ones I know of) over here are flogging the surgical masks at 1.95€ a pop, that's going to get expensive if someone needs to be out and about a lot, you'll get loads of people overusing them. Think the hard shell masks with a filter system where 22€-24€ but I'm not sure how costly the replacement filters were. Personally we're in a position where we can still self isolate and apart from the odd doctors appointment and one big shop now and again (daughter has been doing that up to now but our enforced self isolation is over) don't have to leave the house. The issue will arise when the youngest lad has to go back to school and the eldest and my missus can't use Home Office any more. We'll pay the money for the masks if it comes to it, many won#t be in a position to do that and many just won't be arsed. 

[Spy Bee]

Just now, TK421 said:

There has to be a peak unless it flatlines perfectly. 

Which is the definition of an infection rate of 1.

 

 

[Pureblood]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

If it moves at a slower pace, it doesn't peak, you absolute emptyhead!! 

It's all relative. I get that you're referring to the R number, but it could be that the R number is lower in north Wales than it is in London, but still above 1 and thus still yet to peak. 

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, TK421 said:

It's all relative. I get that you're referring to the R number, but it could be that the R number is lower in north Wales than it is in London, but still above 1 and thus still yet to peak. 

For the line to stop going up, it needs to be at R1, to go down, it needs to be below this.

[sh#t waffle]

4 minutes ago, TK421 said:

But if you're going to argue that lockdowns don't work full stop, you're in cloud cuckoo land I reckon. They clearly have at least some impact on suppression.  

This is what is so disingenuous about the 'we're following the science, taking the right decisions at the right time' bollocks. You do not need to be an expert to see that minimising human contact minimises the transmission of the virus. At least in the short term. It is inarguable. That would be the same with a cold; if you stay in bed for a couple of days you are going to pass your cold onto fewer people than if you got the tube to work, where you then sit in a crowded, air conditioned office.  

 

And that's why I think Johnson and co have blood on their hands for what's happened here; allowing the likes of the Cheltenham Festival, our CL game and the Stereophonics (frankly I think there is a strong argument that the Stereophonics represent a serious health hazard at the best of times, but I realise that is personal opinion) to draw huge crowds during the weeks of delay clearly contributed to our current situation.

 

The problem is, unless we have herd immunity, a vaccine, drugs which minimise the seriousness of infection or the virus weakens as it mutates, the second we ease the lockdown, how on earth do we stop exactly the same levels happening again? 

 

Here is where you really do need an expert rather than someone on a football forum named after an Anchorman outtake, but it seems to me like short term the best hope is that the virus weakens as it mutates. Otherwise it feels like something akin to lockdown is going to be necessary until a vaccine is found.

[Pureblood]

6 minutes ago, Pistonbroke said:

 

I honestly don't have has much faith as you in my fellow mankind. Like everything it will come down to cost. At the moment the Chemists (can't speak for all but the ones I know of) over here are flogging the surgical masks at 1.95€ a pop, that's going to get expensive if someone needs to be out and about a lot, you'll get loads of people overusing them. Think the hard shell masks with a filter system where 22€-24€ but I'm not sure how costly the replacement filters were. Personally we're in a position where we can still self isolate and apart from the odd doctors appointment and one big shop now and again (daughter has been doing that up to now but our enforced self isolation is over) don't have to leave the house. The issue will arise when the youngest lad has to go back to school and the eldest and my missus can't use Home Office any more. We'll pay the money for the masks if it comes to it, many won#t be in a position to do that and many just won't be arsed. 

I think it will become socially unacceptable to not wear a mask and if people don't comply then fines etc will be used as enforcement.  It will take time but Germany is a very adaptable and forward-thinking place.  I would much rather live in your country than ours, as things stand.  

[Pureblood]

3 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

For the line to stop going up, it needs to be at R1, to go down, it needs to be below this.

Yes, I know.

[Rico1304]

32 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 

I think you can have 2 masks or something.

I guess Id need one for in the house in the morning, one for out of the house and then another for being back in the house.  
 

Does that make sense?  I’m assuming that if you’re outside the house the mask (if it works) will by definition have the virus on the outside so you’d need to bin it when you got back in? 
 

Not everyone goes out, but many people go in and out all the time.  
 

Do we have to wear them indoors at home? 

[Rico1304]

31 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Homemade cotton masks are reusable/washable.  We don't need four medical grade masks per day for everyone. 

 

It's possible for everyone to cover their face in public and still have enough PPE for healthcare workers.  Many countries are doing this. 

But cotton masks are a placebo aren’t they?  Wrong thread? 

[Pureblood]

3 minutes ago, sh#t waffle said:

The problem is, unless we have herd immunity, a vaccine, drugs which minimise the seriousness of infection or the virus weakens as it mutates, the second we ease the lockdown, how on earth do we stop exactly the same levels happening again? 

Good post, Waffle. 

 

This part I've quoted is where the masks come in, for me.  Everyone wears them. Millions of the fucking things.  Get 'em worn!

 

We need to think like the people of Hong Kong.  The people of Taiwan etc.  They take hygiene ultra seriously, they have rugs soaked in bleach to disinfect feet when you enter a property, they wash down surfaces obsessively, they don't touch surfaces unless it's necessary (especially in public), they adapt their behaviour and they perform better as a society against these viruses than we do.  So we need to learn from them and behave in the same way. We need to change culturally.

 

And no, I won't stop going on about masks until every cunt is wearing one.

[SasaS]

2 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

I guess Id need one for in the house in the morning, one for out of the house and then another for being back in the house.  
 

Does that make sense?  I’m assuming that if you’re outside the house the mask (if it works) will by definition have the virus on the outside so you’d need to bin it when you got back in? 
 

Not everyone goes out, but many people go in and out all the time.  
 

Do we have to wear them indoors at home? 

 

I think you wear one when you go out and then leave it to decontaminate for a couple of hours while you use the other one to go out again, or back home.

 

Anyway, we have a resident expert.

[Pureblood]

2 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

But cotton masks are a placebo aren’t they?  Wrong thread? 

No, you're approaching it from the wrong angle.  The mask is there to protect everyone else, not the wearer.

 

It's essentially a socialist concept where the benefit stems from everyone wearing them.  It's based on collective action, you are thinking in terms of individualism.

[Pureblood]

8 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Do we have to wear them indoors at home? 

I would say, as a layman and not an expert, that the answer is no unless you're symptomatic or have tested positive. Or if you live with someone who is at risk, e.g. elderly, it would be considerate to wear one when you are interacting with them.