Coronavirus

[Pureblood]

Why is the aim to "administrate the maximum number of deaths per day"? That sounds bad to me. 

[Red Phoenix]

Just now, TK421 said:

A lay person like me could easily spot that he was wrong.

 

It's been a regular thing. Like the hundreds of thousands of deaths herd immunity would cause. People all over social media were saying huge numbers would die, but no they had to wait until the Imperial College findings to suddenly realise what many of us had been going mad about. Too hard to check the death rate at the time then google the UK population and use a calculator, needed a study for it instead.

 

It took over a week of people going mental about schools being open until they closed them too. It's almost like they were enforcing measures that had been popular on twitter for days on end instead of having any real idea what the fuck they were doing.

 

At least there's some type of lockdown currently in place and they seem willing to keep it going instead of being out on the streets like Bolsonaro in Brazil has been, saying "We’ll all die one day."

 

I think we might be in trouble until there's way more testing and/or the lockdown is working better. Or maybe like Italy has done, we could get experts in from other countries to help. But maybe this gov is too full of itself at the moment for any of that. That could change if things get worse though.

[Strontium]

7 minutes ago, SasaS said:

Also, you should look at death numbers in slightly longer periods, there was a big jump in the UK seven days ago, so a lag in weekend numbers may be an influence. The bad news is that that jump las Tuesday was to 87 deaths.

 

The lag can be much bigger than that. One death reported yesterday happened 17 days earlier.

 

Just one of the reasons why picking a single day's numbers and using it to make a point is a fool's errand.

[Spy Bee]

5 minutes ago, TK421 said:

I can scarcely believe what I'm reading. "Quite happy with progress". Fucking hell. 

1 minute ago, TK421 said:

Why is the aim to "administrate the maximum number of deaths per day"? That sounds bad to me. 

I'm suggesting that they might be quite happy about being on target to achieve what they are aiming to. Not that I am happy.

 

Well, we have to get through this somehow. The minimum impact to the economy, you could argue, is to get through this as quickly as possible, without the collapse of society. If that is the case, you want to be operating at maximum capacity as soon as possible, for as long as possible until everyone who is going to die is dead.

 

It's my belief that this is the government objective, and while on the face of it, it is heartless, it may have some logic behind it. The longer this goes on, the more other people will suffer with mental health issues, urgent suspected cancers, general ill health. Social isolation will lead to issues with children's development,supply of food, water, power and strain on the threads of society etc.

 

The Observer just over a week ago ran some numbers and a similar article called The Hammer and The Dance was doing the rounds, showing that suppression was not possible, and trying to supress things would in the long term be more damaging. I'm not qualified to know what the best path is, but I can guarantee you that there are no good ones.

[Bjornebye]

Just now, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

The lag can be much bigger than that. One death reported yesterday happened 17 days earlier.

 

Just one of the reasons why picking a single day's numbers and using it to make a point is a fool's errand.

You didn't do this last week no? Its that self-awareness vacuum again SD. 

[Strontium]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

You didn't do this last week no? Its that self-awareness vacuum again SD. 

 

I don't recall doing that, perhaps you'd be kind enough to jog my memory?

[Bjornebye]

Just now, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

I don't recall doing that, perhaps you'd be kind enough to jog my memory?

Convenient. You did. If you don't think you did then feel free to try and prove that you didn't. But you did, and have been spouting about daily figures since this pretty much started killing people in the UK. 

[Pureblood]

Just now, Spy Bee said:

Well, we have to get through this somehow. The minimum impact to the economy, you could argue, is to get through this as quickly as possible, without the collapse of society. If that is the case, you want to be operating at maximum capacity as soon as possible, for as long as possible until everyone who is going to die is dead.

This makes chilling reading and you are very easily manipulated.  Honestly I just don't know how anyone can think this way.  But just to be clear, you're okay with killing as many people as possible as quickly as possible? You endorse this strategy?

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

Convenient. You did. If you don't think you did then feel free to try and prove that you didn't. But you did, and have been spouting about daily figures since this pretty much started killing people in the UK. 

Stop being a hysterical fanny!

[Spy Bee]

1 minute ago, TK421 said:

This makes chilling reading and you are very easily manipulated.  Honestly I just don't know how anyone can think this way.  But just to be clear, you're okay with killing as many people as possible as quickly as possible? You endorse this strategy?

That's not what I said. If you are not willing to have a conversation with nuance, then there is absolutely no point in conversing with you.

[Strontium]

3 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Convenient. You did. If you don't think you did then feel free to try and prove that you didn't. But you did, and have been spouting about daily figures since this pretty much started killing people in the UK. 

 

Well, no, the onus is on the person making the claim to prove it. I had a look through my posts and couldn't find anything, the only figures I could find that I had posted were yearly ones. Methinks you are making stuff up again.

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

Stop being a hysterical fanny!

Stop being embarrassing or I'll ring your mum ! 

[Pureblood]

2 minutes ago, Spy Bee said:

That's not what I said. If you are not willing to have a conversation with nuance, then there is absolutely no point in conversing with you.

Okay, no problem. 

[Bjornebye]

Just now, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Well, no, the onus is on the person making the claim to prove it. I had a look through my posts and couldn't find anything, the only figures I could find that I had posted were yearly ones. Methinks you are making stuff up again.

I don't make things up. You are the liar not me. 

[Strontium]

Just now, Bjornebye said:

I don't make things up. You are the liar not me. 

 

Prove it then.

[Oh Buoy]

400 is a fucking jump.

[Captain Turdseye]

7 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

I don't make things up. You are the liar not me. 

 

6 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Prove it then.

I’ve read this book loads of times. 

[TheHowieLama]

2 minutes ago, Captain Turdseye said:

 

I’ve read this book loads of times. 

Quite -- either Stig has the smoking gun or not.

 

[Bjornebye]

On 21/03/2020 at 18:04, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

We were never following those figures. The Italy column begins from the date of the first death. The UK column begins two days after the date of the first death. The UK column has been shunted down for no apparent reason, it's extremely misleading, doubtless whoever created it has an agenda to push.

 

We're 16 days after the first death here (5 Mar to 21 Mar), and we're up to 233. After 16 days (22 Feb to 9 Mar) Italy was up to 463.

 

26 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

The lag can be much bigger than that. One death reported yesterday happened 17 days earlier.

 

Just one of the reasons why picking a single day's numbers and using it to make a point is a fool's errand.

Remember the other posts where you claimed to have 'debunked' the whole thing? You know when you were using daily statistics to prove we weren't on the same trajectory as Italy? 

 

Clown. 

[1892-LFCWasBorn]

Personally speaking from what I've seen and read thus far is that we probably won't reach peak until end of April/start of May.

 

Social distancing even today is still not being adhered to. All you need to is look for pics on Twitter, particularly those on public transport and supermarkets. The penny only dropped with supermarkets recently about crowd control. Just imagine how many people have been passing it to each other up until very recently.

 

The main thing that some are forgetting is the lag in terms of catching the virus, showing symptoms and even hospitalisation. You could potentially be talking about 4-6 week lag for number of deaths (or even more). This obviously depends on the strain you are exposed to and whether you actually end up in hospital as most won't be.

 

Going forwards, the daily death rate isn't the number to look at, it's the number of new infections and those new admissions to hospitals.

[Bjornebye]

2 minutes ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

Personally speaking from what I've seen and read thus far is that we probably won't reach peak until end of April/start of May.

 

Social distancing even today is still not being adhered to. All you need to is look for pics on Twitter, particularly those on public transport and supermarkets. The penny only dropped with supermarkets recently about crowd control.

 

The main thing that some are forgetting is the lag in terms of catching the virus, showing symptoms and even hospitalisation. You could potentially be talking about 30 days lag for number of deaths (or even more). This obviously depends on the strain you are exposed to and whether you actually end up in hospital as most won't be.

 

Going forwards, the daily death rate isn't the number to look at, it's the number of new infections and those new admissions to hospitals.

Its probably going to be a lot longer than that. You've still got dickheads like those lot who turned up to see that medical ship turn up in New York. Completely missing he whole point either selfishly or through being ignorant fucking idiots. Only last week two bastard women who live opposite each other on our road were sat outside next to each other on deck chairs while their kids were playing in the street. 

[Scott_M]

This is “The Hammer & The Dance” that Spybee mentioned.

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

Probably already been posted but now harm re-reading again.
 

It does make sense. Interesting that as we farted about for so long, our hammer is now quite hard & that there won’t be any seen benefit from lockdown for at least 12 days. 
 

Hopefully this time next week, we start to see numbers go down. Let’s just hope they  aren’t starting from an astronomically high figure.

I also like that the articles title sounds like a Game Of Thrones episode.

[No2]

The figures in Ireland point to a flattening of the curve. We are a good week ahead of the UK in actual terms and appear to be a country mile ahead in terms of adapting to social distancing. 

[Harry Squatter]

Someone from Tesco in Litherland  posted this on Facebook. Basically bellends just going out to the shop because they are bored and dont want to sit in the house.

[Jairzinho]

11 minutes ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

Personally speaking from what I've seen and read thus far is that we probably won't reach peak until end of April/start of May.

 

Social distancing even today is still not being adhered to. All you need to is look for pics on Twitter, particularly those on public transport and supermarkets. The penny only dropped with supermarkets recently about crowd control. Just imagine how many people have been passing it to each other up until very recently.

 

The main thing that some are forgetting is the lag in terms of catching the virus, showing symptoms and even hospitalisation. You could potentially be talking about 4-6 week lag for number of deaths (or even more). This obviously depends on the strain you are exposed to and whether you actually end up in hospital as most won't be.

 

Going forwards, the daily death rate isn't the number to look at, it's the number of new infections and those new admissions to hospitals.

We haven't reached a peak in Spain yet. It's probably somewhere around a week off. Hopefully sooner, obviously. We're now in our third week of lockdown, yet lockdown in the UK hasn't even really started properly yet. 

 

As you say, it's fucking worrying seeing the amount of situations where people are still in huge numbers together - waiting for transport, on transport, building site canteens, supermarkets, etc, and that's just those that are following the rules. 

 

I think we've got another 4-6 weeks of isolation here. I hope it isn't much more in the UK, but the piecemeal measures taken (for whatever reason) point to it being much, much longer.