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Coronavirus


Bjornebye

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4 minutes ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

What the fuck? He's referring to slides that no one can see.

 

Only we can fuck up a press conference.

 

Precious Laura get the first question again.

Dont dare slag Laura. You’ll be called anti-Semitic 

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From Reddit:

 

For people that might have missed it Patrick was talking about the R0 (R Zero) value. This is the basic Reproduction number in simple terms how fast it is spreading. The basis is if the number is more than 1 the virus is spreading and growing in size. The typical value of coronavirus is 3.5. That is for every case of it they will spread it to 3.5 other people.

 

In order for the virus to decrease and stop spreading that value has to be below 1. The example is if you have 100 people and it is 3.50 that is 350 people it pass to. If it is .90 that means 100 people will in the next cycle only 90 people will have it so have 10 less cases.

 

The fact he said the R0 was heading towards 1 means the cases are slowing down. It is important cases lag 7 days behind and deaths can be 11-20 days behind. So they will take some time to follow the R0 tend.

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8 minutes ago, %%% said:

From Reddit:

 

For people that might have missed it Patrick was talking about the R0 (R Zero) value. This is the basic Reproduction number in simple terms how fast it is spreading. The basis is if the number is more than 1 the virus is spreading and growing in size. The typical value of coronavirus is 3.5. That is for every case of it they will spread it to 3.5 other people.

 

In order for the virus to decrease and stop spreading that value has to be below 1. The example is if you have 100 people and it is 3.50 that is 350 people it pass to. If it is .90 that means 100 people will in the next cycle only 90 people will have it so have 10 less cases.

 

The fact he said the R0 was heading towards 1 means the cases are slowing down. It is important cases lag 7 days behind and deaths can be 11-20 days behind. So they will take some time to follow the R0 tend.

Interesting. If its heading towards 1 i see little reason why we can't aim at getting our services back up and running in a few weeks.

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2 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Interesting. If its heading towards 1 i see little reason why we can't aim at getting our services back up and running in a few weeks.

Well, it'll shoot back above one if we do that. It needs to be done slowly and carefully, probably with further 2-3 week lockdown periods to make sure it doesn't get out of hand. It's far too early to say we're out of danger, we're likely not even nearly at the end of the beginning.

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Maybe interest some of you with kids during this shit. 

 

 

Screenshot_20200330_181437_com.android.chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20200330_181447_com.android.chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20200330_181513_com.android.chrome.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Interesting. If its heading towards 1 i see little reason why we can't aim at getting our services back up and running in a few weeks.

Over 2 million children at risk because of the ramifications of the virus says the children's commissioner.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-puts-vulnerable-uk-children-greater-risk-campaigners-warn

 

Talk of doctors giving respiratory help to only those with the best chance of survival shouldn't we ask difficult questions of ourselves?  

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4 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

What is the R0 number for the flu?

https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html

 

Depends on where it occurs, I guess, I'd imagine the higher R0 figures are for more densely populated areas. Measles is a right cunt.

 

DISEASE REPRODUCTION NUMBER R0
Ebola, 2014 1.51 to 2.53
H1N1 Influenza, 2009 1.46 to 1.48
Seasonal Influenza 0.9 to 2.1
Measles 12 to 18
MERS around 1
Polio 5 to 7
SARS <1 to 2.75
Smallpox 5 to 7
SARS-CoV-2 (causes COVID-19) 1.5 to 3.5
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5 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Well, it'll shoot back above one if we do that. It needs to be done slowly and carefully, probably with further 2-3 week lockdown periods to make sure it doesn't get out of hand. It's far too early to say we're out of danger, we're likely not even nearly at the end of the beginning.

Yeah fair point but we have got to start looking at the the permanent damage that can be caused by letting this strangle vital services for longer than necessary. 

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20 minutes ago, %%% said:

From Reddit:

 

For people that might have missed it Patrick was talking about the R0 (R Zero) value. This is the basic Reproduction number in simple terms how fast it is spreading. The basis is if the number is more than 1 the virus is spreading and growing in size. The typical value of coronavirus is 3.5. That is for every case of it they will spread it to 3.5 other people.

 

In order for the virus to decrease and stop spreading that value has to be below 1. The example is if you have 100 people and it is 3.50 that is 350 people it pass to. If it is .90 that means 100 people will in the next cycle only 90 people will have it so have 10 less cases.

 

The fact he said the R0 was heading towards 1 means the cases are slowing down. It is important cases lag 7 days behind and deaths can be 11-20 days behind. So they will take some time to follow the R0 tend.

Funny, I was watching Contagion the other night and Kate Winslet's character mentioned the R0 number. I think they said it was 1.5-2 flu.

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3 minutes ago, Mudface said:

https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html

 

Depends on where it occurs, I guess, I'd imagine the higher R0 figures are for more densely populated areas. Measles is a right cunt.

 

DISEASE REPRODUCTION NUMBER R0
Ebola, 2014 1.51 to 2.53
H1N1 Influenza, 2009 1.46 to 1.48
Seasonal Influenza 0.9 to 2.1
Measles 12 to 18
MERS around 1
Polio 5 to 7
SARS <1 to 2.75
Smallpox 5 to 7
SARS-CoV-2 (causes COVID-19) 1.5 to 3.5

Thanks . I feel a bit better looking at that list. 

 

Im lucky, out of all the above ive only got SARS, smallpox and Ebola.

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7 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Yeah fair point but we have got to start looking at the the permanent damage that can be caused by letting this strangle vital services for longer than necessary. 

Until the test for people who've had the virus becomes widely available, I doubt we'll see too much of a significant relaxation.

7 minutes ago, mattyq said:

Just heard that one of my best mates is in intensive care at the JR in Oxford. His sister says he's got 2 days to respond to treatment or it's over. He's 41 with an 10 year old daughter

Shit, that's awful. Fingers crossed he pulls through.

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Was on the phone to my mum yesterday. She's been to Sainsbury's (twice) and M and S in the last couple of days. She thinks the Coronavirus situation is "a load of rubbish". She's early 60s. 

 

Tried to say to her - what if there was a food scare and some maniac was spiking tins of beans with cyanide? And 150 people a day were being killed? You wouldn't keep on buying beans so stop going to the fucking shops. 

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32 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Talk of doctors giving respiratory help to only those with the best chance of survival 

Obviously. This is the sort of heartbreaking decision doctors have been having to make in Italy and Spain for weeks. Literally deciding who they don’t even try to save.

 

They’ve had to talk of setting an age threshold to let people into intensive care. As we likely will imminently. Not leaving them with ventilators until they’re better or die even when on one til the last moment. Not intubating them. Even letting them in the door and trying to treat them.

 

Its kind of why there’s a big move to get everyone to stay indoors to slow the rate of transmission and stay that way until it’s safe to lift restrictions, as otherwise a lot of vulnerable people who might be saved under normal circumstances will die if everyone gets it at once, as has been happening around the world.

 

PS: This isn’t about UK foreign policy abroad, or the desperately unjust situation millions of people find themselves in in all sorts of other contexts. This point is about the likelihood of doctors having to tell the family members of vulnerable people that, “Sorry, there’s nothing we can do for them”, so they can concentrate on those with a higher chance of living.

 

Its hell on earth for all concerned if it happens.

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3 minutes ago, johnsusername said:

Tried to say to her - what if there was a food scare and some maniac was spiking tins of beans with cyanide? And 150 people a day were being killed? You wouldn't keep on buying beans so stop going to the fucking shops. 

 

I probably would keep buying beans tbh.

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