Coronavirus

[clockspeed]

16 minutes ago, Scott_M said:

113 UK deaths today. So far. 

Wonder what this and yesterday's figure was pre manipulation ?  

 

[Scott_M]

7 minutes ago, clockspeed said:

Wonder what this and yesterday's figure was pre manipulation ?  

 

Unfortunately, 1 day stats aren’t good to base results off. They are to volatile. Bad news is treats as a disaster, good news is treated as some sort of saviour. 
 

I absolutely did it yesterday because I want the best outcome. Same with Italy a few days ago. 
 

It’s the hope that kills / annoys / frustrates the shit out of you. 

[Dougie Do'ins]

7 hours ago, cuppatea said:

 

The bloke from Imperial College who put out the report last week predicting 250-500k dead in the UK spoke to MPs yesterday and said with the measures in place he now believes the NHS has the capacity to cope and we could be looking at "substantially below" the 20k deaths previously mentioned by Patrick Vallance.

He's either saying what he's been asked to or he's just throwing shit and hoping some of it sticks.

 

1 hour ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

How comes Laura Cuntsberg always gets to ask the first question in these pressers?

Mentioned this a few days ago. It's payback time for good ol Laura.

[Pureblood]

11 minutes ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

These figures will be way off unfortunately. 

Stuff like this and the Oxford Uni study are dangerously irresponsible, in my opinion.  

 

Sugar coating the impact this will have and making people feel a false sense of security.

 

Surely it will be higher than 5,700 with exponential growth and a haphazard response.   If the peak day is 5th April I'll eat my own mask. 

[Barrington Womble]

4 hours ago, 1892-LFCWasBorn said:

 

What an absolutely brilliant rant. 

[Chairman Meow]

1 hour ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Two things on the self employed thing. 

 

You'd be pretty pissed off if you've been fiddling your tax returns for the past 4 or 5 years. Unlucky. 

 

Also, isn't there an incentive for most self employed people to claim this support whether they really need it or not? Sunak confirmed that self employed people's taxes will go up to pay for this. You'd like to think that most people would do the right thing, but will everybody want to pay for a scheme that they haven't used themselves? 

I'm entitled to nothing as I've only started generating a profit this year and even that is only really from November onwards so even on a 3 year average I'll get nothing as I won't be showing a profit for this year.

 

I currently get tax credits, but that isn't going to pay the rent and feed me.

 

Unless I am able to start doing some work for one of my customers who I do a day a week for by the end of next month I'm probably going to be in serious trouble quite quickly.

 

I have 3 months rent in savings but that's it. So guess I'm either becoming a delivery driver for Tesco or someone of that ilk or I'm selling off my old Escort that I've had since I was 10 to keep myself solvent.

 

 

[SasaS]

4 minutes ago, TK421 said:

Stuff like this and the Oxford Uni study are dangerously irresponsible, in my opinion.  

 

Sugar coating the impact this will have and making people feel a false sense of security.

 

Surely it will be higher than 5,700 with exponential growth and a haphazard response.   If the peak day is 5th April I'll eat my own mask. 

 

[Dougie Do'ins]

Coronavirus UK death toll rises as another patient dies in Merseyside

 

The government has now changed the way they will be reporting the latest COVID-19 figures

 

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-rises-17989121

[Pureblood]

"Very important to note that Prof Pike's modelling changes daily".

 

I fuckin' bet it does!  What planet is he on when he thinks we'll peak on 5th April?  What makes us so special that we'll peak with 260 deaths per day when Italy are on around 700 per day and this thing has only just got started?  Does he not look at how many new cases Italy are still getting each day and factor that in to his modelling?   I just don't get his predictions at all. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Two things on the self employed thing. 

 

You'd be pretty pissed off if you've been fiddling your tax returns for the past 4 or 5 years. Unlucky. 

 

Also, isn't there an incentive for most self employed people to claim this support whether they really need it or not? Sunak confirmed that self employed people's taxes will go up to pay for this. You'd like to think that most people would do the right thing, but will everybody want to pay for a scheme that they haven't used themselves? 

As a driving instructor I'm obvously self employed so to get even anything is a bonus. I am old school in that I firmly believe in an honest day's work for an honest day's pay and I'd prefer to still be out there working in my preferred trade but that's clearly not possible. If taxes will go up regardless if I claim or not then I simply have to claim. I don't mind working harder to pay for it. Personally I think the whole country will be working harder after this horrible time is hopefully finished or at least improved.

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

15 minutes ago, Chairman Meow said:

I'm entitled to nothing as I've only started generating a profit this year and even that is only really from November onwards so even on a 3 year average I'll get nothing as I won't be showing a profit for this year.

 

I currently get tax credits, but that isn't going to pay the rent and feed me.

 

Unless I am able to start doing some work for one of my customers who I do a day a week for by the end of next month I'm probably going to be in serious trouble quite quickly.

 

I have 3 months rent in savings but that's it. So guess I'm either becoming a delivery driver for Tesco or someone of that ilk or I'm selling off my old Escort that I've had since I was 10 to keep myself solvent.

 

 

Hope you get something sorted. I've seen a good few people dismayed at tonight's announcement. 

[Captain Turdseye]

6 minutes ago, TK421 said:

"Very important to note that Prof Pike's modelling changes daily".

 

I fuckin' bet it does!  What planet is he on when he thinks we'll peak on 5th April?  What makes us so special that we'll peak with 260 deaths per day when Italy are on around 700 per day and this thing has only just got started?  Does he not look at how many new cases Italy are still getting each day and factor that in to his modelling?   I just don't get his predictions at all. 

He’s a stats man. You’ve been using this website long enough to know how him and his ilk work. 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Next have shut down the whole shebang after an increasing number of complaints from employees concerned about the health & safety implications of having to work close to each other when picking goods in stores and warehouses. 

 

I hope workers remember that they can have the power when all this is done and dusted. 

[Pureblood]

10 minutes ago, Captain Turdseye said:

He’s a stats man. You’ve been using this website long enough to know how him and his ilk work. 

He no Code.

[magicrat]

Mrs went to the shops the other day and I told her not to panic buy . I came back to find Andy Carroll sitting in the kitchen .

[J-V]

2 minutes ago, magicrat said:

Mrs went to the shops the other day and I told her not to panic buy . I came back to find Andy Carroll sitting in the kitchen .

About a week late with that one

[magicrat]

1 minute ago, J-V said:

About a week late with that one

Been self isolating sorry 

[Strontium]

[Chairman Meow]

2 minutes ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Hope you get something sorted. I've seen a good few people dismayed at tonight's announcement. 

I've got a friend I have been doing a day a week for and then some additional weekends doing some instructing at his rally school which is basically what has gotten me turning a profit. Obviously he can't run rally school days now, and additionally he's also in the high risk category as well as his parents who live on the site as well so that looks out of the question for quite some time.

 

It really depends on how things pan out. At the moment I can still advertise and use the post office or courier to send some stuff out. But that said, I've someone is serious high risk living in the house who has been told to stay in for 12 weeks. 

 

My stuff is all stored on an old farm, so I can get along there and sort stuff out and as I am the only person there it doesn't add any risk. But then there is the post office visits, not really sure quite what I do, I'm fairly certain I'm low risk (although I am a fat bastard) and frankly I can live with taking a chance with my own safety. If that's what I've got to do too survive then I don't really have a choice. However, it's not just me that's at risk if I do.

[dockers_strike]

Scary times, stay safe. 8pm door steps clapping in support of the NHS workers. Dont be shy, make it so.

[Pureblood]

8 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

Do you agree with Prof Pike? Yes or no will suffice, don't do your usual dodge the question shite. 

[Pidge]

31 minutes ago, TK421 said:

"Very important to note that Prof Pike's modelling changes daily".

 

I fuckin' bet it does!  What planet is he on when he thinks we'll peak on 5th April?  What makes us so special that we'll peak with 260 deaths per day when Italy are on around 700 per day and this thing has only just got started?  Does he not look at how many new cases Italy are still getting each day and factor that in to his modelling?   I just don't get his predictions at all. 

Because it's based on a time series updated daily and the data from China and other countries are still emerging.

 

The methodology, including the limitations and the clear acceptance that it's a limited model to track progress against, is right there in the thread.

[Grinch]

3 minutes ago, dockers_strike said:

Scary times, stay safe. 8pm door steps clapping in support of the NHS workers. Dont be shy, make it so.

 

Bit fucking daft this.   People out clapping no one cause they seen on the news, workers being appaulded going to and from work. 

[Pureblood]

Just now, Pidge said:

Because it's based on a time series updated daily and the data from China and other countries are still emerging.

 

The methodology, including the limitations and the clear acceptance that it's a limited model to track progress against, is right there in the thread.

Okay. Well I call shenanigans and think he's talking bollocks. Do you agree with the central stat of his hypothesis that there will be a total of 5,700 deaths?

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]