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Coronavirus


Bjornebye

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8 minutes ago, M_B said:

0.1 is 10% of 1.0

 

If influenza kills 500,000 and has a mortality rate of 0.1%, how many would die if the mortality rate is 1.0?

 

Using the figures above  - everyone.

 

1.0 would represent the whole. 0.1 represents  a 10% rate

 

Using those figures - it assumes 1 in every 10 influenza cases ended in death.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Using the figures above  - everyone.

 

1.0 would represent the whole. 0.1 represents  a 10% rate

 

Unless those figures are incorrect it assumes 1 in every 10 influenza cases ended in death.

 

Sorry - I see the confusion.

 

1.0 = 1%, 0.1 = 0.1%

 

Influenza kills 0.1% of the infected population.

Coronavirus kills 1% of the infected population. (Although some say its somewhere between 1 and 2%)

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7 minutes ago, M_B said:

Sorry - I see the confusion.

 

1.0 = 1%. 0.1 = 0.1%

 

Influenza kills 0.1% of the infected population.

Coronavirus kills 1% of the infected population.

There is no confusion when you add real numbers.

So you are saying the figures quoted in the article on influenza are off by a factor of 100

 

500000 deaths out of 5 million cases is not a .1 or even a 1. It is a 10.

 

For the rate to be as you suggest it would be only 5000 out of 5 million

 

If 500,000 people a year are dying and .1% is the true rate that would mean 50 billion flu cases a year - right?

 

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7 minutes ago, M_B said:

Almost. There are 'only' 7 billion people in the world.

 

A billion is 1,000,000,000

 

500,000 * 1000 = ?

Too many zeroes -- to do in my head.

 

Yep - 500,000 fatal influenza cases divided by .001 ( a tenth of one percent) fatality rate would mean 500 million cases.

 

Still seems to be off by a factor of 100

 

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5 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Too many zeroes -- to do in my head.

 

500000 fatal influenza cases divided by .001 ( a tenth of one percent) fatality rate would mean 500 million cases.

 

Still seems to be off by a factor of 100

 

Ok - lets not derail the thread with the maths. I'm getting a headache which hopefully isn't coronavirus.

 

Just answer this question for yourself and see what result you get.

 

If influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% and kills 500,000 then how many will\could coronavirus kill if it has a mortality rate of 1%?

 

 

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4 minutes ago, M_B said:

 

If influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% and kills 500,000 then how many will\could coronavirus kill if it has a mortality rate of 1%?

 

 

It is going to kill 1 in every 100 people who contracts it. 

The conversation started about death rates of the flu - which given the numbers of fatalities vs numbers of cases seems to be off. 

 

To directly answer the question and accepting that this virus is 10 times more deadly than flu -- there will need to be 50 million infections before there are 500,000 fatal cases.

 

Here is hoping they get a handle on treating it fairly quickly. 

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Guest Pistonbroke
50 minutes ago, cloggypop said:

 

We know how that meeting will go.

 

Matt Hancock: 'As I was saying Mr Prime minister, the sick, elderly and vulnerable will bare the brunt should things escalate.'

 

BJ: 'So good news then, now about that new idea of mine to raise the cost of prescription charges..'

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