General Election 2019

[The Woolster]

3 hours ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Dr Moderate has gone in balls deep on either a hung parliament or a Labour minority government. 

 

Come on Dr Moderate. You're our only hope! 

 

Mate!

 

On 09/12/2019 at 11:34, The Woolster said:

I've been looking at some of these polls, and the headline numbers that we see strip out the undecideds. When the undecideds are included the gap between the Tories and Labour is at least a couple of % points closer than the headlines. The undecideds are still fairly large, ranging from about 8% to 15%.

 

Now not all of the undecideds will end up voting, but I believe that undecideds that do vote tend to end up voting Labour, I think that is partly because it is a greater % of women who leave their decision late, and they tend to vote Labour. But also, my guess is that these undecideds are more likely to be tactical voters, so I am hopeful that there will be a closing of that gap.

 

I think the pool are also underweight the youth vote, who we know tend to vote Labour. Including those with the undecideds, I think it could be a couple of % points closer. I thin kwe do need a swing of a couple of points on the headline numbers though, there is a bout a 10% gap, and I think we need to get to about 8% for these missing voters to get us to a hung parliament.

 

With regards to the latest Survation, its got some funky stuff going on with London. London tends to vote Labour, the other polls that I have looked, including the previous Survation poll, at have Labour leading in London as expected, but this latest one has the Tories on 40.9% and Labour on 36.4%. The Survation poll before was 28.5% Conservative, 39.9% Labour. The poll is based off 98 people in London, which is over 10% of the amount polled, so I am not sure if I trust that this latest poll is actually representative. 

 

Having since come across this Dr Moderate guy/gal, i now realised that the Leave vote is overweight in the polls too, so even more benefit to give.

 

I said the I wanted the poll average to come in to at least an 8 point gap, it looks like the average after this evenings releases is about 9%, but with that overweight leave benefit to take into account, it looks to me like a hung parliament too (if this 6% gap requirement is correct).

 

But if the youth vote really does come out in force, well, then who knows what might happen!

 

[lifetime fan]

6 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Great, except for the fact I just gave an MRP which showed that in October it was close. 

 

Do you expect parties to ignore the best available data or something?

You tried to claim it was a three way race. It never was, never has been and isn’t. That data was bullshit and you know it. 
 

Even if there was a smidgen of truth to it (there isn’t!), why are you claiming the tories can’t win when this MRP poll you quote said it was a three horse race with the tories out in front. 
 

It’s lies and splitting the remain vote, exactly as I said it was in Hazel Grove. 

[Bobby Hundreds]

Dear Santa for fuck sake can we not let the worst of us win for once.

[skend04]

5 hours ago, Nelly-Torres said:

We just need Apache Indian and One True Voice to publicly back Labour and this is onnnnnnn! 

Haha! Repped for maybe the first ever mention of Apache Indian on TLW. Never thought I'd see the day.

[Dr Arthur De Sabre]

1 hour ago, skend04 said:

Haha! Repped for maybe the first ever mention of Apache Indian on TLW. Never thought I'd see the day.

The new style Junglee version was boss when it came out. general was pretty good as well.

[Red Phoenix]

The only issue I have with Dr Moderate is that he/she/they/them/it/whatever has in their Labour minority gov included Lib Dems. There's no way Swindle will accept Corbyn as leader, she's too much of a Tory and would rather see the country go through another full election than accept it I think.

 

Imagine that too. Labour with Corbyn do one thing constantly in elections, and that's catch up to the Tories. If we had another just after crimbo we'd probably pass eventually and end up with a full majority or something. But imagine the levels of propaganda in that election if the media and gov knew they were actually losing. This has been the worst ever, in that situation it'd be even more gone.

 

Swindle would rather see the country go full on North Korea propaganda mode (we're almost there already I suppose, maybe one more nudge for the fun of it) than see Corbyn bring a much needed dose of communism to number 10. She'd rather see the country's reputation in tatters. She should just go and sit with the Tories really.

 

The bird in the Lib Dem logo doesn't represent liberty or whatever it's supposed to be at the moment, it represents Swindle flying off to the Tories whenever Corbyn is doing well to plot something else to keep him and his beard at bay. Hopefully the country will see through it if we end up having yet another election.

[Bjornebye]

7 hours ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

Great, except for the fact I just gave an MRP which showed that in October it was close. 

 

Do you expect parties to ignore the best available data or something?

I think most people naively expect parties to be honest with them. 

[Vincent Vega]

Never mind Little Mix, Rage Against The Machine are where it’s at.

 

[Red Phoenix]

 

[Red Phoenix]

 

[Stickman]

Peter knows 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/1204834654299344907

[Mudface]

3 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

 

Haha, Rick Rolled.

[lifetime fan]

Just been and voted, I voted labour for the party rather than the MP (although to be fair in one respect - he’s very pro remain). 
 

I’d been hoping like fuck for a hung parliament but last nights full moon has convinced me it will be a comfortable tory majority, probably around 15-18 seats. 

[Bobby Hundreds]

More chance of me fucking Kelly brook than the Tories not getting a majority.

[A Red]

My constituency includes the Scilly Isles so is usually the last result in, only 300 betwen lib dem and tories. Seeing as it could be the one to tip the balance i'm going up the polling station in a bit with a "vote for sale" badge on. 

[Mudface]

 

 

There are quite a few of these appearing, mentioning massive queues at polling stations. Tenuous, but a heavy turnout would be good for Labour I think.

[Jenson]

3 minutes ago, A Red said:

My constituency includes the Scilly Isles so is usually the last result in, only 300 betwen lib dem and tories. Seeing as it could be the one to tip the balance i'm going up the polling station in a bit with a "vote for sale" badge on. 

Come on A Red, SD will rep you for life if you vote Lib Dem.

[Creator Supreme]

1 hour ago, Stickman said:

Peter knows 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/1204834654299344907

He deserves credit for the way he's conducted himself, very few journalists do, a rare decent Tory!

[Creator Supreme]

12 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

More chance of me fucking Kelly brook than the Tories not getting a majority.

You're in for a hell of a 20 seconds if it's hung parliament!

 

That includes the post-coital cigarette obviously!

[an tha]

20 minutes ago, Mudface said:

 

 

There are quite a few of these appearing, mentioning massive queues at polling stations. Tenuous, but a heavy turnout would be good for Labour I think.

Depends how much of that heavy turnout is the brexit mong vote, especially in Labour held 'leave' areas.

Turnout in a lot of those areas was higher in the EU referendum than it was in elections usually and if the 'Get Brexit Done' brigade come out in force in these areas it is bad news for Labour.

[Mudface]

1 minute ago, an tha said:

Depends how much of that heavy turnout is the brexit mong vote, especially in Labour held 'leave' areas.

Turnout in a lot of those areas was higher in the EU referendum than it was in elections usually and if the 'Get Brexit Done' brigade come out in force in these areas it is bad news for Labour.

True, and the queues might just be people voting now rather than having to come out in the dark later. Still, I'll grasp any straw at the moment!

[Moctezuma]

My polling station was busy at 7am this morning and my mate who works in one in the London outskirts has said he's never seen numbers like it.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

Best of luck to all those desperate to see the back of the Vile Tory bastards and a conclusion to Brexit which benefits your country in full. A Tory working majority doesn't bear thinking about, they'll cosy up to Trump and his cronies which will alienate the UK from many others, then if you get a US President/Party who are less anti EU you'll end up all by yourselves. During this period they'll also be responsible for a load more deaths as poverty rises and no doubt it will lead to severe cracks in your own Union. Huge day, hopefully the masses will react accordingly and vote for their future and not the lies of the rich. 

[Vincent Vega]

The concern is that the Labour vote comes out in force but in areas that they already have sown up. Hopefully the vote for Labour comes out in the marginals too.

[Red Phoenix]

3 minutes ago, an tha said:

Depends how much of that heavy turnout is the brexit mong vote, especially in Labour held 'leave' areas.

Turnout in a lot of those areas was higher in the EU referendum than it was in elections usually and if the 'Get Brexit Done' brigade come out in force in these areas it is bad news for Labour.

 

A lot of that might be balanced out by people sick of the thought of strawhead being PM. We've seen what Trump has been like for the US and this cunt is similarly stupid, so getting him out should boost turnout too.