General Election 2019

[Mudface]

2 minutes ago, ZonkoVille77 said:

Swinson arguing that only the Lib Dems can solve Brexit and the Tories and Labour can't. How, you might ask? By using their majority (snigger) to...... hold a people's vote. 

 

So basically Labour's approach.

 

The fuckin' lunatic cunt. 

 

She's fuckin shite. 

Funnily enough, the Lib Dems' 2017 manifesto proposal was basically the same as what Labour are offering this time around- a referendum on the withdrawal deal with Remain being the other option. Must have been too complicated to be accepted by the public given their 2017 performance.

[Jairzinho]

The fucking gall of these anti-semites -

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/nov/17/a-vote-for-labour-is-not-a-vote-for-antisemitism?CMP=share_btn_tw&fbclid=IwAR14Ld2tmhhsQ70dLeK4btTAH0J0vht59UxlqH8fdS0wOBL35-hUdQE1J2A

[Denny Crane]

A few more polls out today 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

@Brownie Didn't mean to sound flippant there - many Dems are questioning Biden's viability and the center has always been the key to success. So we see Mayor Pete surging in the polls at Biden's expense - we see Bloomberg throw his hat into the ring because there is real fear that a "left" candidate will get thumped in the electoral college.

[Denny Crane]

Talking of American politics I was always aware America doesn't like baldy presidents. I now know they don't like shorties as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

[aRdja]

31 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

The fucking gall of these anti-semites -

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/nov/17/a-vote-for-labour-is-not-a-vote-for-antisemitism?CMP=share_btn_tw&fbclid=IwAR14Ld2tmhhsQ70dLeK4btTAH0J0vht59UxlqH8fdS0wOBL35-hUdQE1J2A

Do I believe the jews or Maajid Nawaz on this? Hmmmm... tough choice.

[Bjornebye]

But this didn't happen false news anti-semitic lies 

 

It’s curious that those apparently concerned about discrimination and xenophobia have nothing to say about the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, which presided over the racist “go home” campaign targeting migrants, dramatically increased poverty, and hiked university tuition fees threefold while cutting funding to state education.

[Brownie]

33 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

@Brownie Didn't mean to sound flippant there - many Dems are questioning Biden's viability and the center has always been the key to success. So we see Mayor Pete surging in the polls at Biden's expense - we see Bloomberg throw his hat into the ring because there is real fear that a "left" candidate will get thumped in the electoral college.

No worries mate, I didn’t take it in a bad way and I agree with your analysis.

 

In many ways it’s a mirror image of what’s happening over here.

[Megadrive Man]

3 hours ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

I have a  negative view of Labour’s ability to win an election. 

It was because of the way that Labour were winning these elections that has now lead them in to this position. 

They lost 50+ guaranteed seats  in Scotland because of it.

 

Imagine if Tony Blair didn't become Labour Leader in 1997, stayed in the party as an MP and became leader now.

 

People say Blair would wipe the floor with Johnson, but how would incredibly pro European Blair win an election where Brexit is the main issue, on a similar Brexit campaign to the Lib Dems, with all his pals at the s*n etc not supporting him? 

 

One thing that is becoming clear in this campaign is that the working class Brexit voters care more about Brexit than anything else and will vote for anyone or any party that delivers it. The numbers just aren't there to win an election on a remain campaign. Which is probably why Corbyn was so reluctant to back it. 

[Brownie]

 

6 minutes ago, MegadriveMan said:

One thing that is becoming clear in this campaign is that the working class Brexit voters care more about Brexit than anything else and will vote for anyone or any party that delivers it. The numbers just aren't there to win an election on a remain campaign. Which is probably why Corbyn was so reluctant to back it. 

 

I completely agree with this. Anyone who thinks that Labour would comfortably win the election by pivoting behind Remain, is so out of touch it's scary. Their strategy is the right one but they'll still lose.

[Numero Veinticinco]

2 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

You think there is a large number of people who support the policies but do not support Corbyn?

Yep, that’s exactly what it is. Some here seem to be continually thinking I’m suggesting a lurch to the right. I’m suggesting, firstly, be better at winning elections, be better at selling a vision, be better at politics, be likeable to massive amounts of people. Even if that means waiting on some things. But you shouldn’t think that people hate Corbyn’s agenda. At least not all of it, it wasn’t Blair’s social policies that made him hated. A lot of what he and Brown did was very popular. They made life a lot better - even if I spent a decade ripping them apart for other things - and Corbyn’s policies would too. 
 

Corbyn seems a genuinely caring person, with an agenda that’s generally not radical, even if I think some of it lacks political aptitude, and policies that are generally well supported. What he isn’t is a good political leader who can win a majority. That’s... a big problem. 
 

@moof Mate, come on. We’ve got a differing opinion. It doesn’t make me ignorant. 
 

@Brownie I dunno, she seems like a bumbling mess every time I see her in an interview. She seems incredibly lightweight to me. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

26 minutes ago, Brownie said:

 

 

I completely agree with this. Anyone who thinks that Labour would comfortably win the election by pivoting behind Remain, is so out of touch it's scary. Their strategy is the right one but they'll still lose.

I’ve no idea if Labour’s Brexit policy is a vote winner or not (although, him not being able to answer what he favours makes him look pretty bad in interviews) but I personally think it’s the best, most fair policy. 

[Megadrive Man]

We currently have all the Pro Brexit parties calling Corbyn a remainer and all the pro remain parties calling him a leaver so its no wonder he doesn't know what he supports.

[mattyq]

26 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

I’ve no idea if Labour’s Brexit policy is a vote winner or not (although, him not being able to answer what he favours makes him look pretty bad in interviews) but I personally think it’s the best, most fair policy. 

I think it's fairly clear that Lab's Brexit policy is going to be a big vote loser.

It''l lose them seats in London and the Midlands... it's suicidal. 

People want clarity and Lab offers confusion 

58 minutes ago, Brownie said:

 

 

I completely agree with this. Anyone who thinks that Labour would comfortably win the election by pivoting behind Remain, is so out of touch it's scary. Their strategy is the right one but they'll still lose.

This doesn't make any sense to me... if the strategy is one that leads to defeat then it is definitely wrong.

I think Corbyn is a big problem 

I like his and Labour policies with the exception of Brexit but he is a poor leader and lacks the communication skills and nous to break through to win new supporters and convert Brexiteers

I think he's a decent man doing his best which won't be good enough

[Barrington Womble]

3 hours ago, Brownie said:

What Labour are offering is centre left. This is part of the problem, even left leaners are buying into this bullshit that what’s on offer is extreme left.

 

It’s absolute bollocks.

I am not sure several of labours headline grabbers can be seen as centre left. Nationalising openreach, abolishing private schooling (although I believe the manifesto will back away from that), taking 10% of the shares of companies and giving them to the staff and there's more that aren't jumping in to my mind at the moment. Lots of the policies are centre left, lots are not. Coupled with who the leader is, gives the policies no chance of oxygen. 

[Megadrive Man]

The big difference between the two parties on Brexit;

 

Tory;

247 (74%) of their constituencies voted leave. Around 75% of their membership supports leave. Johnson was formerly a pro European who joined the leave campaign and is acknowledged as helping the leave campaign to win.

 

Labour;  

148 (64%) of their constituencies voted leave. Around 80% of the membership supports remain. Corbyn is a Euro skeptic and seen as a reluctant remainer.  

 

In 2017 when both the parties had similar positions on Brexit Labour denied May a Majority because they had better policies. 

 

In 2019 Labour would have to either support BJ's deal, which would look stupid having voted against it, support no deal, which would look stupid having done everything possible to stop it, or go all out remain which wouldn't win them the election.

 

You could put Ian Huntley in charge of the Tories vs a Labour lead by David Attenborough and Brexiteers would still vote Huntley in. 

[Bjornebye]

 

 

 

 

 

[Scooby Dudek]

2 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

@Brownie Didn't mean to sound flippant there - many Dems are questioning Biden's viability and the center has always been the key to success. So we see Mayor Pete surging in the polls at Biden's expense - we see Bloomberg throw his hat into the ring because there is real fear that a "left" candidate will get thumped in the electoral college.

I believe the fear for the Centrist Democrats is that a "left" candidate will thump Trump.

 

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Sanders (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/4 - 10/31	--	--	51.0	43.1	Sanders +7.9
ABC News/Wash Post	10/27 - 10/30	876 RV	4.0	55	41	Sanders +14
FOX News	10/27 - 10/30	1040 RV	3.0	49	41	Sanders +8
IBD/TIPP	10/24 - 10/31	863 RV	3.5	51	44	Sanders +7
Emerson	10/18 - 10/21	1000 RV	3.0	51	49	Sanders +2
CNN	10/17 - 10/20	892 RV	4.0	52	43	Sanders +9
SurveyUSA	10/15 - 10/16	3080 RV	2.1	50	42	Sanders +8
Quinnipiac	10/4 - 10/7	1483 RV	3.1	49	42	Sanders +7

 

 

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Warren (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/4 - 10/31	--	--	50.4	43.1	Warren +7.3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	10/27 - 10/30	720 RV	3.7	50	42	Warren +8
ABC News/Wash Post	10/27 - 10/30	876 RV	4.0	55	40	Warren +15
FOX News	10/27 - 10/30	1040 RV	3.0	46	41	Warren +5
IBD/TIPP	10/24 - 10/31	863 RV	3.5	52	44	Warren +8
Emerson	10/18 - 10/21	1000 RV	3.0	51	49	Warren +2
CNN	10/17 - 10/20	892 RV	4.0	52	44	Warren +8
SurveyUSA	10/15 - 10/16	3080 RV	2.1	48	44	Warren +4
Quinnipiac	10/4 - 10/7	1483 RV	3.1	49	41	Warren +8

[aRdja]

59 minutes ago, mattyq said:

I think it's fairly clear that Lab's Brexit policy is going to be a big vote loser.

I tend to agree with you here. Corbyn should’ve been more firm with regards to respecting the result of the referendum that was also re-confirmed by the last national election; that the country leaves the EU, but on their terms as opposed to Johnson’s deal. That would’ve decimated the Brexit Party IMO. 

[TheHowieLama]

31 minutes ago, Scooby Dudek said:

I believe the fear for the Centrist Democrats is that a "left" candidate will thump Trump.

 

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Sanders (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/4 - 10/31	--	--	51.0	43.1	Sanders +7.9
ABC News/Wash Post	10/27 - 10/30	876 RV	4.0	55	41	Sanders +14
FOX News	10/27 - 10/30	1040 RV	3.0	49	41	Sanders +8
IBD/TIPP	10/24 - 10/31	863 RV	3.5	51	44	Sanders +7
Emerson	10/18 - 10/21	1000 RV	3.0	51	49	Sanders +2
CNN	10/17 - 10/20	892 RV	4.0	52	43	Sanders +9
SurveyUSA	10/15 - 10/16	3080 RV	2.1	50	42	Sanders +8
Quinnipiac	10/4 - 10/7	1483 RV	3.1	49	42	Sanders +7

 

 

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Warren (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/4 - 10/31	--	--	50.4	43.1	Warren +7.3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	10/27 - 10/30	720 RV	3.7	50	42	Warren +8
ABC News/Wash Post	10/27 - 10/30	876 RV	4.0	55	40	Warren +15
FOX News	10/27 - 10/30	1040 RV	3.0	46	41	Warren +5
IBD/TIPP	10/24 - 10/31	863 RV	3.5	52	44	Warren +8
Emerson	10/18 - 10/21	1000 RV	3.0	51	49	Warren +2
CNN	10/17 - 10/20	892 RV	4.0	52	44	Warren +8
SurveyUSA	10/15 - 10/16	3080 RV	2.1	48	44	Warren +4
Quinnipiac	10/4 - 10/7	1483 RV	3.1	49	41	Warren +8

Yeah -- cuz no one in the States has figured out how general polling works.

 

Thanks

[Megadrive Man]

4 minutes ago, viRdjil said:

I tend to agree with you here. Corbyn should’ve been more firm with regards to respecting the result of the referendum that was also re-confirmed by the last national election; that the country leaves the EU, but on their terms as opposed to Johnson’s deal. That would’ve decimated the Brexit Party IMO. 

How can they do that though when 80%+ of the membership supports remain? 

[aRdja]

It’s hard to compare US politics to the UK IMO. Their politics are so far to the right, they think the NHS is extreme left. 

[Bjornebye]

1 minute ago, viRdjil said:

It’s hard to compare US politics to the UK IMO. Their politics are so far to the right, they think the NHS is extreme freeloading 

.

[Scooby Dudek]

3 hours ago, TheHowieLama said:

@Brownie Didn't mean to sound flippant there - many Dems are questioning Biden's viability and the center has always been the key to success. So we see Mayor Pete surging in the polls at Biden's expense - we see Bloomberg throw his hat into the ring because there is real fear that a "left" candidate will get thumped in the electoral college.

 

11 minutes ago, TheHowieLama said:

Yeah -- cuz no one in the States has figured out how general polling works.

 

Thanks

I read your initial post as Bloomberg (and maybe Clinton) were entering the race because Biden was falling and they fear a left candidate getting thumped in the election.  

I think the exact opposite and posted polls of the two leading left candidates, to back up my opinion. 

 

Apologies if my post came across as condescending, it was not intended. 

 

[aRdja]

3 minutes ago, MegadriveMan said:

How can they do that though when 80%+ of the membership supports remain? 

The people want to leave. The referendum result showed that and the election confirmed it. They should’ve put a lot more energy and focus on promoting ‘Lexit’. As it is, no Brexit voters will vote for Labour IMO.